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Racing Chat Thursday December 17th


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Can't see this topic started so will do so myself; perhaps everyone has set off early for Christmas ūü§£

12.35 Exeter Coquelicot £4.20 win with Bet365  = possible return of £15.75.  I feel that this horse will perform even better on the heavy going today and perhaps the cheek pieces will bring about some improvement in its jumping.  It seems far too early to write this one off with its former good bumper performances.  Pure Bliss will be very popular with Harry Fry's record of winning this race three of the last seven runnings.  However, I'm not so sure that it will handle the underfoot conditions.  It also carries a 6lbs penalty (thought I'd abandoned handicap racing so I don't understand that) so I'll go for the second favourite to win here.

Hats off to Harry Fry with Pure Bliss winning well.  £4.20 won't break the bank so I'll have another go this evening at Chelmsford.

6.00 Kondo Isami £5.30 win 3.40 on the Betfair Exchange = poss profit of £12.47.  This horse finished in front of the second favourite last time and a left hand track should suit for the Mark Johnston runner.  John Gosden's apparent best horse is a non-runner today

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Well, it looks like all the money came for Gosden's Louis Armstrong despite Kondo Isami having beaten it last time.  Pity I don't get BOG any more as my horse drifted to 100/30

Anyway one winner and one loser ¬£9.50 staked and ¬£17.77 returned so a profit of ¬£8.27.¬† The balance on this account is ¬£505.25 so it is now in a small profit ūüôā.

I am starting to like this idea of just one/two, possibly three to four max selections with a cap of around £20 per day. I wish I had switched to non handicap races a long time ago.  I think I will try to avoid the big races though as the competition is fierce.

 

 

Edited by The Equaliser
Results Update
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All prices Bet365:

12.25 Hereford - 2pts win Lockdown Leader @ 9/2

Favourite has had a wind op but I have to take him on over 2m3f on bottomless ground given he can race freely and if doing so again is likely to find it a long way home under these conditions. Lockdown Leader is bred for stamina and it looked that way when staying on for a never dangerous 4th on its sole start in a bumper. Should find this test more to his liking and can hopefully outstay the market fancies.

2.30 Hereford - 1pt e/w Rootless Tree @ 20/1

No show in two starts for his new trainer but fell at the first going chasing on first start so is likely to have needed the run last time back over hurdles. Didn't show up there but was a good winner of a novice under these conditions 12 months ago and also shaped well in a handicap off a much higher mark later on in the campaign. Heavy ground is no issue and if bouncing back to form now he's had a run, could outrun the odds.

2.40 Exeter - 1pt e/w Arthur's Gift @ 11/1

Back down to a handy mark now and shaped as if in need of the run on seasonal reappearance. Was better than the losing margin suggests and should strip fitter now. A heavy ground test over three miles suits and looks an attractive price at double figure odds. 

3.05 Hereford - 1pt e/w Winged Isle @ 8/1

Caught the attention of the stewards last time when running on from the rear and the step up in trip looks sure to help. Bred to stay pretty well and had some decent form in a couple of novices at the back end of last year. Slowly came to the boil then before being pitched into a hot handicap on good ground first time out this year. Improved on that last time and now getting his stamina stretched a bit more, ought to go close.

3.15 Exeter - 1pt e/w Rock on Aussie @ 20/1

This one has slid down the weights for quite a few poor runs but shaped a bit better the last twice over further, whilst looking like his stamina was stretched on both occasions. This drop back down in trip should suit this one who can travel strongly before weakening and down the weights again, today could see him in a better light.

3.25 Southwell - 1pt e/w Coco Bear @ 8/1

Was an impressive winner at Yarmouth earlier in the year but hasn't been able to back that up since. However, has had excuses along the way and the drop back to 6f for this free going sort will suit. Has fallen down the handicap for defeats in races where things haven't gone its way and if taking to the surface can go better today. 

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