Big Bash League 2020-21

[Cricketegy]

Big Bash League 2020-21

[Cricketegy]

 

Melbourne Stars vs Brisbane Heat, 2nd Match - My model predicts MELBOURNE STARS victory. However before that BRISBANE HEAT looks to do good (between 7.44 and 8:26 pm local time)  and some good odds movement can be expected after which STARS should bounce back in the game and win it.  So we like to go with STARS on higher odds and then cashout

[Cricketegy]

MELBOURNE STARS won. Although did not get higher odds  

[Cricketegy]

9 hours ago, Torpedo Ted said:

Hi Cricketegy.

I have been looking for somewhere for good cricket tips and discussion.

Where did you get your expected odds movement chart from? I don’t understand how you can be anywhere near as accurate as that, in terms of predicting such huge swings in the odds, at specific times. What was that based on?

 

Thanks Torpedo

The odds movement chart is created by me based on my model and experience. It helps the punter in having a fair idea on how the game is likely to go and decide with the right trade. 

 

Thanks

[Cricketegy]

3rd Match - Melbourne Stars vs Sydney Thunder

1st innings of this match looks to be dominated by SYDNEY THUNDER to greater extent.  So opening odds of Melbourne Stars 1.66 is great value to lay.  Second innings we like THUNDER to get a good start for approx 8-10 overs after which there are good chances of STARS to bounce back and win the game from a tough position. 

So my 1st bet would be STARS lay at opening and would cash out when odds in favor of THUNDER

Good luck  

 

 

[Cricketegy]

5 minutes ago, Torpedo Ted said:

Are you producing these after you know which team is batting first, or before?

What do the numbers on the vertical axis refer to? For example, odds of 0.8, what do you mean by that?

I’m completely baffled by this, I’ve never seen anything like it.

It is produced well in advance. So its irrespective of knowing which team is batting first or second. The vertical axis refers to the betting odds. So if you see todays match the graph starts with 1.66 (STARS favorite). So from there you can see how the odds getting higher for STARS which means THUNDER doing well.  This gives a fair idea for sports trader to have an idea how the match is likely to go with odds movement. It is more of a rough estimate which is helpful for trading  It cant be perfect always and there will be days when it is offbeat. But most of the days it will be BOOM ? 

 

 

[Cricketegy]

4 hours ago, Torpedo Ted said:

Ok, the odds make sense on today’s graph, with odds of 1 as the lower limit. It was the previous graph that had a lower limit of 0 that I didn’t understand.

What is the scale on the horizontal axis, and why are there no numbers on there? That also looks suspicious.

How can you possibly predict in such detail how the match is going to go? And, even if you could, surely it would vary hugely depending on which side bats first?

The horizontal axis is the team itself which is mentioned on top. It does not make any difference to me whether the team bats first or second  I have a model which i have developed based on mathematics

[Cricketegy]

Bang on target. STARS took the match away when THUNDERS started to look dangerous. We got our cash anyways  ?

[Cricketegy]

8 hours ago, Torpedo Ted said:

Are you able to post the actual odds movement graphs after these matches, to show how they compare to your predictions?

I don’t think the match today went anything like how you predicted. Stars were pretty strong throughout the first innings, and had a wobble between overs 14-15, which is the opposite of what your graph shows.

 

The graph is just a rough estimate to understand the expected odds movement. This was my prediction yesterday - 

"1st innings of this match looks to be dominated by SYDNEY THUNDER to greater extent.  So opening odds of Melbourne Stars 1.66 is great value to lay.  Second innings we like THUNDER to get a good start for approx 8-10 overs after which there are good chances of STARS to bounce back and win the game from a tough position. 

So my 1st bet would be STARS lay at opening and would cash out when odds in favor of THUNDER"

 

So 1st innings though STARS got good start but they could not capitalize and THUNDER had a better position by end of innings (even got good odds movement). 2nd innings expected THUNDER to do better and give us good odds which happened. After 10th over expected STARS to bounce back and win. which actually happend from 13th over until end of innings. 

So just got a rough picture of what is expected in game. Anyways its my opinion and i am not compelling you to follow   

[Cricketegy]

5th Match - Adelaide Strikers vs Hobart Hurricanes

ADELAIDE STRIKERS looking good in the 1st innings of this contest. So would like to go with ADELAIDE first and then will cash out. Second innings looks HOBART can cause some upset. Our strategy would be simply to be with ADELAIDE and cash out. Out of 2 matches today our model indicates one could be an upset. Lets see

[Cricketegy]

1 hour ago, Cricketegy said:

5th Match - Adelaide Strikers vs Hobart Hurricanes

ADELAIDE STRIKERS looking good in the 1st innings of this contest. So would like to go with ADELAIDE first and then will cash out. Second innings looks HOBART can cause some upset. Our strategy would be simply to be with ADELAIDE and cash out. Out of 2 matches today our model indicates one could be an upset. Lets see

Reversal patterns with HOBART showing some domination. HOBART favorites now. Laying them for now

[Cricketegy]

 

8th Match - Hobart Hurricanes vs Adelaide Strikers

1ST Innings looks good for ADELAIDE STRIKERS. So my model indicates ADELAIDE should do well and odds should be in favor of them in the 1st phase of the game. 

2nd innings looks HOBART to bounce back and win the match. 

So would lay HOBART to start with and will CASH OUT with ADELAIDE favorite. We dont want to risk with HOBART showing good domination in 2nd innings

 

 

 

[Cricketegy]

Also my model indicates possibility of a collapse and then recovery by middle order batsman today  

[Cricketegy]

Another great profitable day for us yesterday, with Adelaide coming favorites as expected. Also batting collapse and recovery by middle order batsman happened as predicted. 

[Cricketegy]

Torpedo I think you are not able to understand my messages and strategy.  I did expect hobart to bounce back and win but my trade was with Adelaide which easily happened. Even this was clearly mentioned in my message. So yes the second part was not exact although hobart did show bounce by picking 2 early Adelaide wickets and odds moving up significantly. Anyhow we got green on Adelaide which was our target. So I don't mind even if hobart could not win it as the end result was profit 

Are you new to cricket? Lol. How many times do you see a collapse and recovery like yesterday?  Can you mention how many such collapses and recovery happened in this bbl?

 

 

 

 

 

[waggy]

Great thread Cricketegy. Very cleverly worked out. Something different. Keep it going.

As you've probably worked out Torpedo Ted is not really interested in your cricket analysis he just likes to stir things up with everyone. He will be back, probably under a new name He has now had about seven different names to my knowledge. What he gets out of it nobody knows lol.

 

[Cricketegy]

20 hours ago, waggy said:

Great thread Cricketegy. Very cleverly worked out. Something different. Keep it going.

As you've probably worked out Torpedo Ted is not really interested in your cricket analysis he just likes to stir things up with everyone. He will be back, probably under a new name He has now had about seven different names to my knowledge. What he gets out of it nobody knows lol.

 

Thanks so much waggy for the appreciation. 

[Cricketegy]

On 12/16/2020 at 5:58 PM, Torpedo Ted said:

Which innings are you referring to, when you are talking about ‘collapse and recovery?’

Excuse my ignorance, but I don’t normally bet with the intention of cashing out. Surely there can’t be much profit in what you’re suggesting? How do you know when to cash out? Can you be a bit more specific with your bets and results please. Does one match where the predictions go wrong, and the odds don’t fluctuate, and you lose your whole stake, not wipe out loads of other matches where you’ve made a little profit?

Also, your graphs are still lacking labels and scale on the horizontal axis. I was working on graphs recently, with someone who is nine-years-old, and one of the things they were taught was that a graph needs a label and scale on both axes. I think I would agree with that - your graphs are incomplete and therefore meaningless, without that information.

The same innings in which i had mentioned early collapse could happen and then recovery. You had commented saying that its quite normal to have such collapses and recovery. 

Everyone has their own system and strategies of sports trading. I am not the one who will be waiting for the team to win as everybody is aware about the amount of corruption prevalent in sports . So i do have a proper system of trading and i consider my losses too. i book my profits depending upon the situation and what my model predicts. 

i do know that graphs have a scale but you should understand that this is just a rough estimate wherein its impossible to give the time factor or overs. I am not a match fixer. LOL. I am just predicting the odds based on my years of experience and research. So the graph gives us a rough picture of how the odds can move throughout the match. This information is priceless as no one knows about the odds movement in a match. Although i dont make tall claims, but atleast the graph helps to make a good decision and get a fair idea.  And its ok if you dont like my posts or graph, you can always trade on your own decisions   

[Cricketegy]

 

Sydney Sixers vs Adelaide Strikers, 11th Match

Overall the 1st innings of this match looks to be going towards SYDNEY SIXERS. Also in the second innings SIXERS seems to get a good start. However the last 10 overs of the second innings can bring some significant odd movements or win towards ADELAIDE. 

Our Strategy would be to lay ADELAIDE to start. And would cash out with SIXERS favorite

[Cricketegy]

4 hours ago, Cricketegy said:

BOOM BOOM. our team sixers now at odds 1.06 and we gonna cash out. Awesome trading day ? with profits. 

Sydney Sixers vs Adelaide Strikers, 11th Match

Overall the 1st innings of this match looks to be going towards SYDNEY SIXERS. Also in the second innings SIXERS seems to get a good start. However the last 10 overs of the second innings can bring some significant odd movements or win towards ADELAIDE. 

Our Strategy would be to lay ADELAIDE to start. And would cash out with SIXERS favorite

 

[Cricketegy]

Just now, Torpedo Ted said:

Why would you not have cashed out before now, given that you expected them to hit 1.3 and then drift? 

True. But I was just watching for few mins to see if a drift was really coming or not. But I couldn't find one and by that time one more wicket came off to get these odds?