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RACING CHAT - Thursday 10th December


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Iconic Muddle (1.57 Warwick) looked one to follow when a well backed runner up at Newbury last season, won a penalty kick after that at Plumpton. Likes soft ground and should be well handicapped off 118 on chase debut here. Pretty obvious chance if he takes to fences and I've taken some 7/2.

 

Jumped slowly but the winner did it very easily anyway 😑

Edited by yossa6133
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Dec +33

Few extras for me

1pt level stakes win only 

11.45 New African Glory 10/1 Lost

13.50 New Temple Guide10/1Lost

14.25 New Kyoto Star 10/1 Lost 

All prices as of now b365

-3 

Dec +30 

Not one for aftertiming but it seems I missed one off ,my fault,it was rushing because of the early start 

People be aware Sue Smith's horses are just coming in to form 

Edited by roger2256
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I haven't had much time for analysis today so I'm just going for one selections at Newcastle

12.45 Nc Engarde £6.20 win at 7/4 (just missed 2/1 with Bet365) 15 points score

Interesting that Capard King in the 12.15 is about 5/2 with Betfair and scores 5.75 points.  whilst Malystic scores 13.5 points in the 1.20 at Newc.  which is at a best price of around 5/4. However, the latter selection is in a handicap where all the horses are supposed to finish in a dead heat.  That being so it seems to me that Engarde has to be the better value bet, doesn't it?

Nb my new staking regime means I will be placing larger stakes than normal on my shorter priced selections.  This being so my £134.21 Singles balance is woefully inadequate to cope with my revised betting stakes.  What I am going to do is increase my bank to £500 from today.  There is no trickery here.  I am very happy to acknowledge that I have to write off £265.79 loss from my original bank of £400.  The loss occurred mainly because of my misplaced idea of backing so called good things at higher prices.  I will still sometimes back horses at longer odds but am stream lining the bets in relation to my new criteria.  I will leave most of the long shots to @Bathtime For Rupertand @richard-westwoodin the future who have proven to be far better at it than me

Only one win selection today that one.  Engarde drifted in the betting out to 100/30 and in-running I saw it at 10.0 plus.  Fortunately it came through and won.  I have no idea how Sunset West became 6/4 favourite.

Anyway my replenished betting bank started at £500 and a profit of £10.85 brings the tally to £510.85

I will retain my Multiples balances which stand at £580.04 (£800 Bank) and the top rated one with a deficit of £37.65 c/fwd.  The intention is to get them both back into a small profit and perhaps think again after that happens.

There is some class racing at Cheltenham tomorrow.  I am content just to work just through a single meeting these days whereas I used to try and look through all of them in case I missed out on a good opportunity. 

 

 

 

 

Edited by The Equaliser
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16 hours ago, Wildgarden said:

1.57 Warwick darling du large Betfair sp win and place (prices should drift a bit imo and no value with bookie atm)

Could come back on track following a bad turn up.after wind surgery lto over a year ago and had time now to resurge.

5th unplaced my hope for good return was unfounded 18.13 / 5.1 odds in the end.

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4 hours ago, alancraik said:

todays selections

NEWCASTLE 12:15 Capard King 2/1 win up

TAUNTON 14:47 Mount Windsor 7/2 win 1 st

WARWICK 15:02 Commit Or Quit 5/1 e/w 3 Places going well until it fell

TAUNTON 15:17 Master Work 5/1 e/w 3 Places 1 st 7/1

plus e/w yankee

an improvement today

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4 hours ago, The Equaliser said:

I haven't had much time for analysis today so I'm just going for one selections at Newcastle

12.45 Nc Engarde £6.20 win at 7/4 (just missed 2/1 with Bet365) 15 points score

Interesting that Capard King in the 12.15 is about 5/2 with Betfair and scores 5.75 points.  whilst Malystic scores 13.5 points in the 1.20 at Newc.  which is at a best price of around 5/4. However, the latter selection is in a handicap where all the horses are supposed to finish in a dead heat.  That being so it seems to me that Engarde has to be the better value bet, doesn't it?

Nb my new staking regime means I will be placing larger stakes than normal on my shorter priced selections.  This being so my £134.21 Singles balance is woefully inadequate to cope with my revised betting stakes.  What I am going to do is increase my bank to £500 from today.  There is no trickery here.  I am very happy to acknowledge that I have to write off £265.79 loss from my original bank of £400.  The loss occurred mainly because of my misplaced idea of backing so called good things at higher prices.  I will still sometimes back horses at longer odds but am stream lining the bets in relation to my new criteria.  I will leave most of the long shots to @Bathtime For Rupertand @richard-westwoodin the future who have proven to be far better at it than me

 

 

 

 

It's a sensible man who admits something isnt working rather than flog a dead horse .....sometimes a change can bring about good things and we learn all the time ....I wish you good luck 

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10 hours ago, MCLARKE said:

I'll stick with Nicky Henderson despite his rubbish day on Saturday (6 losers, including 4 favourites).

Another 2 losing favourites. 

I should perhaps look at his current form as well as his past record.

How do we define that a trainer is in / out of form ?

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11 hours ago, MCLARKE said:

Good pick, hope you got BOG.

Hi Michael, I didn't as Bet365 cut me off from BOG and Betfair don't give me it either as I have opted for 2% commission which precludes me from BOG.  As I have said before I don't want to spend the rest of my life managing lists of bookmaker's accounts.  I may consider taking Betfair SP in future.

One pertinent question, possibly to my detriment, is that it is a long tradition to record results in the Nap's comp as if BOG has been achieved by us punters.  Personally it doesn't matter to me if you cut my profit to a 7/4 price as quoted but I do realise that there must be other punters who do achieve BOG and would not like to be held to the shorter price that they obtained.  And, of course there are members such as @Trotter who openly admits that in most cases that he does not put any money on his nap selections.

I have no idea to the extent that BOG is now eadily available from the bookies, all I know is that according to the comments from many members that this offer is in general shrinking from the markets.  Hence the question has to be will there come a time when PL will just use the obtained price as quoted by members when they place their Nap selections?

 

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I think BOG is definitely shrinking with time limits as to when you can avail yourself of it. You can foresee a time when it'll only be available between 10.00 and 10.30 AM on the day of the race !

As for the Naps comp ...... I don't think it matters as long as everyone is treated the same

For the first few years I was doing the Naps comp it was settled at SP ...... that probably made life easier for the admin but it took away part of the 'fun of the chase' which is obtaining a value price

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12 hours ago, MCLARKE said:

Another 2 losing favourites. 

I should perhaps look at his current form as well as his past record.

How do we define that a trainer is in / out of form ?

You say you make money on the stock-market, then why are you asking the above question,the answer should be blindingly obvious.
I suggest reading the Neiderhoffer / Osbourne paper "The Magna Carta of High Frequency Trading"
Then use Robert Shillers 10yr moving average on the trainers PE value and therein lies your answer ;)
At the moment you are in effect buying-in  @ at the high PE ratio which is a no no :ok

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4 hours ago, Valiant Thor said:

You say you make money on the stock-market, then why are you asking the above question,the answer should be blindingly obvious.

Unfortunately it's not.

It's a lot easier to make money on the stock market than with horse racing. The average investor on the stock market will make money, the average punter on horse racing will lose money.

The rule that works well on the stock market is the 200 day rule. When the share price is above the 200 day moving average then it is time to buy, when it is below then it is time to sell.

The problem with trainers is what period to use, x days or weeks or x number of runners.

I might do a bit of research unless somebody already has an answer.

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6 hours ago, Trotter said:

I think BOG is definitely shrinking with time limits as to when you can avail yourself of it. You can foresee a time when it'll only be available between 10.00 and 10.30 AM on the day of the race !

As for the Naps comp ...... I don't think it matters as long as everyone is treated the same

For the first few years I was doing the Naps comp it was settled at SP ...... that probably made life easier for the admin but it took away part of the 'fun of the chase' which is obtaining a value price

The number of bookies that are allowed in the competition has reduced over time and the ones that remain are the ones that offer BOG the night before.

I agree with @Trotter that obtaining a value price is quite crucial although acknowledge that not all of us will be able to avail ourselves of these prices.

Personally if I can't get the best price with a traditional bookie then I will take BSP.

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2 hours ago, MCLARKE said:

Unfortunately it's not.

It's a lot easier to make money on the stock market than with horse racing. The average investor on the stock market will make money, the average punter on horse racing will lose money.

The rule that works well on the stock market is the 200 day rule. When the share price is above the 200 day moving average then it is time to buy, when it is below then it is time to sell.

The problem with trainers is what period to use, x days or weeks or x number of runners.

I might do a bit of research unless somebody already has an answer.

I think you'd want to re think that, your buying @ approaching peak , the majority of profit has gone.
Ok if your a trader playing with other peoples money and taking of a cut per trade, but as an investor its a big no no as the next step is on the way down do the math , where can a stock go from peak certainly not upwards.
They better take the Shiller list off all the trading markets then if thats the case as they've been doing the PE ratios wrong since the 30's.

To quote Warren Buffet

Quote

The first rule to making money is not to lose money

Exit when the PE's are high and enter when the PE's are low
Im led believe he has a good idea what hes doing.

 

Edited by Valiant Thor
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Who knows where the peak is?

There are many shares that continue to grow and grow. My most successful share is OCADO. This was £3 in 2016, £11 in 2017, £14 in 2018, £22 in 2019 and reached £29 in 2020. I have taken big profits along the may to make sure I an not over exposed. All this time the PE of OCDO has been very high but it hasn't stopped these massive price increases.

Another example across the pond is Amazon, this has reached a new peak every year for the last 11 years and has shown a return in that period of 3,400%. 

Again it has an astronomical PE of 91.

The PE ratio is a rather crude ratio and only one of many measures used in investing.

Momentum investing is a tried and tested strategy that works. A simple momentum tracker shows better gains than the average fund manager.

It has generated me a an average return of 10% for many years so I'll stick with it.

I only wish it worked as easily for horse racing !

 

 

 

 

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5 hours ago, MCLARKE said:

Unfortunately it's not.

It's a lot easier to make money on the stock market than with horse racing. The average investor on the stock market will make money, the average punter on horse racing will lose money.

 

Totally agree with that and  even more so as of late with stocks being so low.

Any chance we can have a stock market thread on  Punter Lounge?

Edited by Tedthewolf
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