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Racing Chat - Friday 4th Nov.


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ITV take their cameras to Sandown and Exeter for 7 races tomorrow and here’s an early look at the races. The ground looks sure to pretty testing at both tracks. 

Firstly at Sandown and the 1.50 a Novices’ handicap chase over 2m 4f. Venetia Williams has really hit form in the past weeks with 8 winners from her last 25 runners at a win rate of 31%. She saddles favourite Funambule Sivola here who shoulders a 7lb penalty for a runaway victory at Wetherby last week. He’s been put up 13lb by the assessor in future handicaps so is effectively 6lb well in here. His improvement at the Yorkshire track came on his fencing debut and possibly as importantly his first following a tinkering of his wind, whichever it was it worked and he’ll be hard to beat although there are some equally progressive sorts in opposition including Newbury winner Morning Vicar (raised 6lb) and Alnadam (raised 4lb for his recent 2nd).  

FUNAMBULE SIVOLA 2 point win @ 5/2 bet365

 

The Big Breakaway is unbackable in the 2.05 Exeter against Bold Plan who’s quite a nice type and surprising at these weights only 5lb inferior on official ratings plus two total rags who will start any price. A no bet race but let’s hope Colin Tizzard’s 5 year old jumps as well as he did at Cheltenham on his fencing debut and wins comfortably.

 

The 2.25 is the Ballymore Winter Hill Novices’ Hurdle run over 2m 4f. A race with a rich history of progressive novices winning. Star Gate could be anything following an Irish point win and an impressive Chepstow hurdling debut victory in October where the 3rd that day has gone on and won a handicap at Ascot to boost the form. Paul Nicholl’s saddles Sending Love who bolted up at Ffos Las following a wind operation and Nicholl’s is in terrific form currently winning with 4 of his last 5 runners winning and running at a 20% win rate over the past fortnight. The trainer to follow in this race though is Alan King who has won the race three times in the last five and five times in the last twelve. His runner here is Valleres who will appreciate the easier ground than when runner up to a smart one of Nicholls’ at Ludlow. He could be the value play. 

VALLERES 1 point win @11/2 bet365 

 

Exeter’s 2.40 is next, to be run over 2m3f 48yds. I’m a big fan of Oliver Sherwood’s Sevarano who would be an ideal candidate for a race like the novice handicap chase at the Festival in March but unfortunately for him the race has been dropped to accommodate a Mares Chase (benefit for Willie Mullins!). He won more cosier than it looked at Sandown, jumping well on his chase debut there and was only raised 4lb which I though was very fair. I’ll be disappointed if he doesn’t win this en route to a rise in class. 

SEVERANO 2 points win @ 9/4 bet365

 

The 3.00 is a qualifier for the Pertemps Network, a handicap hurdle run over 2m7f 98y. For those that don’t know if you finish in the first six you get to automatically qualify for the final in March at Cheltenham (if your rating’s high enough obviously).  Favourite Kilconny Bridge impressed when beating four others at Chepstow 25 days ago when his trainer Anthony Honeyball’s stable was on fire. Not so now though with just the one winner from his last 16 in the last fortnight. Talking of trainers out of form brings me onto Warren Greatrex who’s going through a very lean spell going 48 runner’s over 44 days since his last winner which is a real shame as but for that I would be having a decent go at top weight Portrush Ted who I fancied for the big Betfair sponsored handicap hurdle a couple of weekend’s ago but for some reason missed that race. He’s not been seen for 293 days but his best runs are when fresh (12111), loves soft ground and brings a touch of class to proceedings. I can’t resist a small each way bet but am very worried of the form of his stable. 

PORTRUSH TED (below) ½ point each way @ 12/1 bet365

 

Exeter’s final race is the 3.15 run over a stamina sapping 3m 6f 153yds for handicap chasers. It looks wide open with cases made for plenty but with the Johnny Farrelly stable in such good form this season (3 winners from his last 10 runners) it can pay to side with his consistent 9 year old Bermeo who’s run well in good amateur riders contest at Cheltenham on his last two starts. Trip and ground look ideal and he’ll be my selection. 

BERMEO 1 point each way @ 6/1 william hill 

 

The final race at Sandown is the 3.35 a mares only handicap hurdle run over 2m 4f. I was mightily impressed by Nicky Henderson’s Vegas Blue on her seasonal re-appearance when she slaughtered subsequent winner Panic Attack at Huntingdon but not so when flopping at odds on at Kempton. I’m not sure what went wrong there  and a wet forecast doesn’t really suit her so I’m happy to look elsewhere.  Sue Gardner has hit a bit of form but it doesn’t help having her daughter Lucy riding and I’m happy to take on Emmpressive Lady on her handicap debut. Venetia Williams has her yard in such strong form that anything she runs has to be looked carefully at. She saddles Penny Mallow here who may not have taken to chasing last time and back over the smaller obstacles is worth chancing. She’s got winning form in heavy ground. 

PENNY MALLOW 1 point each way  @ 7/1 bet365

 

 

 Portrush Tedd.jpg

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7 hours ago, MCLARKE said:

My Nicky Henderson runner tomorrow is in the 12.55 novice hurdle at Exeter.

BARON NELSON available at 9/1.

Talking of Henderson horses, I took a fancy to Janika. He came over from France as a 5/6 year old and went straight into some very competitive handicaps carrying top weight. Was only narrowly beaten by horses better handicapped carrying much less. His RPRs were very good. I’m sure we all have horses we are very fond of, and he’s one I’m certainly fond of. I honestly thought he’d eventually go up in distance and become a gold cup contender, but although he’s continued to run well the yard don’t know what to do with him and what direction to send him. Sent him over hurdles and that didn’t work. Meant to be running at Aintree on Saturday but he’s not been declared now. I’d like to see him over further but obviously Henderson thinks not. 

Edited by Villa Chris
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All prices Bet365:

12.00 Sedgefield - 1pt e/w Bollin Neil @ 10/1

Lowly on the flat but stays, should handle conditions no problem and ought to make a jumper (plenty of relatives have) so in a winnable race I thought he had sound place claims at the very least.

12.35 Sedgefield - 1pt e/w Whiteoak Fleur @ 8/1

The favourite needs to progress again now climbing the weights quite quickly and I thought Whiteoak Fleur had a good chance here. Shaped well over 2m6f on seasonal reappearance when only fading late on and should strip fitter now with the drop back in trip a good move. Best form has come on decent enough ground so some of her runs last year weren't ideal and looks fairly handicapped.

12.45 Sandown - 1pt e/w Call Me Vic @ 14/1

Market drift is a concern as he ran a cracker on seasonal reappearance at Cheltenham, travelling well before clouting 2 out. Was still only beaten 9 lengths and should come on for that with a breather in between that and this run helping recovery.

12.55 Exeter - 1pt e/w Funky Sensation @ 16/1

Bred to be useful and won a point in good fashion when last seen. That was a long time ago now but Tom Symonds is going well and can ready them so still think this one is of plenty of interest at a healthy price.

1.50 Sandown - 2pts win Alnadam @ 6/1

Ran well in hurdles races last year and ran a cracker on chasing debut at Carlisle when last seen. Was only narrowly denied by a thriving type who has bolted up again since and the pair were clear. Should come on for that too and I think he has a huge chance today. 

3.00 Sandown - 1pt e/w Farrants Way @ 8/1

Very unexposed and lightly raced but got the job done in good style when last seen over the extended 3 miles at Hereford. Stamina is his forte clearly and looks plenty more to come off a fair mark. Has an absence to overcome but I'm not too concerned about that, conditions will suit and he's related to some high quality types so keen on him today.

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Haven't looked at all meetings yet and have to go out soon.  So will put up some bets but no Trixie

12.45 San Diable De Sivola £1 win at 7/1

1.05 Sed Get Help £2 win at 7.6 (laid off at 4.2 I/R for £6.66 but liability = £2 if not matched)

3.25 Sed Harde Fashion £4 win at 6/5

Total stakes = £7

5.15 Nc Wasntexpectingthat £1 win at 10/1

5.45 Nc Crownthorpr £1 win at 9/1

Final try to get even

6.45 Nc First Repsonse (KS £1.50 win at 15/2 = £12.75 poss return

===================================================================================================

No singles winners today so a straight loss of £10.50. This means a balance c/fwd of £147.11 (Bank £400).

No multiples so theses balances remain the same

Some class action tomorrow at Aintree so let's hope for a change in fortunes

 

 

Edited by The Equaliser
Results Update
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2 hours ago, Bathtime For Rupert said:

All prices Bet365:

12.00 Sedgefield - 1pt e/w Bollin Neil @ 10/1

Lowly on the flat but stays, should handle conditions no problem and ought to make a jumper (plenty of relatives have) so in a winnable race I thought he had sound place claims at the very least.

12.35 Sedgefield - 1pt e/w Whiteoak Fleur @ 8/1

The favourite needs to progress again now climbing the weights quite quickly and I thought Whiteoak Fleur had a good chance here. Shaped well over 2m6f on seasonal reappearance when only fading late on and should strip fitter now with the drop back in trip a good move. Best form has come on decent enough ground so some of her runs last year weren't ideal and looks fairly handicapped.

12.45 Sandown - 1pt e/w Call Me Vic @ 14/1

Market drift is a concern as he ran a cracker on seasonal reappearance at Cheltenham, travelling well before clouting 2 out. Was still only beaten 9 lengths and should come on for that with a breather in between that and this run helping recovery.

12.55 Exeter - 1pt e/w Funky Sensation @ 16/1

Bred to be useful and won a point in good fashion when last seen. That was a long time ago now but Tom Symonds is going well and can ready them so still think this one is of plenty of interest at a healthy price.

1.50 Sandown - 2pts win Alnadam @ 6/1

Ran well in hurdles races last year and ran a cracker on chasing debut at Carlisle when last seen. Was only narrowly denied by a thriving type who has bolted up again since and the pair were clear. Should come on for that too and I think he has a huge chance today. 

3.00 Sandown - 1pt e/w Farrants Way @ 8/1

Very unexposed and lightly raced but got the job done in good style when last seen over the extended 3 miles at Hereford. Stamina is his forte clearly and looks plenty more to come off a fair mark. Has an absence to overcome but I'm not too concerned about that, conditions will suit and he's related to some high quality types so keen on him today.

Jesus wept , you’re on form today. 

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2 hours ago, richard-westwood said:

515 newc

Mohareb  288

Astrojakk 286

Gowanladd  283 

Wasntexpectingthat 282

Competitive race but I'll take a chance on the top 2 here ...they have been running well and have decent draws

Mohareb 10pt win 5.9 betfair 

Astrojakk 10pt win 10/1 bet365 

Get in beauty....astrojakk wins 110pts returned 

Edited by richard-westwood
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2 hours ago, richard-westwood said:

545 newc 

Dawaaleb  277

St just  275 

Another tricky race but again both those have been running some strong races and are fair odds ..

Dawwaaleb  10pts win 5.9 betfair 

St just 10pt win 12.5 betfair 

Dawwaleb wins ........129 pts profit on the night 

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