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FA Cup Predictions > Nov 26th - 30th


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Fair to say the 1st Round didn't go anywhere near as well as the 4th Qualifying Round and I was caught out a little by how many upsets there were. Hard to put an exact reason behind that, but I do think no crowds is a factor. The Non-League sides are always going to be up for it, but it was clear that the same couldn't be said of the Football League sides in the 1st Round. I have picked out 6 of the Non-League sides that I think can cause an upset over the weekend as well as putting up a 4 fold. If they all win then I might retire! Tips for now and the previews will follow. Don't forget Bet365 have their acca bonus and early payout if a team goes 2 in front if you want that safety net so I have put top price and Bet365 price if shorter.

Morecambe v Solihull Moors

A slight concern that Solihull have had a Covid enforced break and haven't played since November 11th, but this does look a game they can win to me. They were good in beating Scunthorpe in the previous round and although Morecombe are doing better than they are in League 2 there recent form isn't great. In the league they have only won one of their last 9 games and Solihull will be confident they can cause an upset. 

Peterborough v Chorley

I am taking a bit of a flyer here, but I thought Chorley did superbly well in coming from 2 down to beat Wigan in the last round. I know Wigan had 10 men, but even so it was a hell of an effort. Peterborough lost a couple of games before beating Plymouth last time and that gives a bit of hope. Also I can't imagine this will be high up on the list of targets for them. The lack of home fans I think favoured the Non-League sides in round 1 and that is why we saw so many go through and Chorley do have it in them to cause an upset. I think they are in a bit of a false position in the National League North and I just can't make them as big as 18/1 so its worth a having a crack at that price.

Mansfield v Dagenham & Redbridge

Mansfield have only won once in the league all season and given Dagenham beat Grimsby in the previous round I think they could cause their League 2 hosts some issues here. They haven't played in nearly a couple of weeks and that will have helped them focus on this. They seem to be improving from earlier in the season and on their day the have the players to beat Mansfield.

Bristol Rovers v Darlington

Darlington caused an upset in Round 1 when beating League 1 Swindon and I think they can beat another League 1 side in Rovers. They have only picked up 2 points in their last 6 league games. 2 starts back they lost to Swindon and last time they only got a point at Wigan. Rovers' record against Non-League sides in the FA Cup hasn't exactly been the best in recent years either. Darlington had a couple of good wins in the league before losing to Bradford (Park Avenue) on Tuesday night, but I don't mind that because this is a much bigger game for them. They look over priced to me.

Shrewsbury v Oxford City

I would have preferred it if Shrewsbury hadn't announced their new manager on Friday as players will be looking to impress now, but with no win in 8 in the league they will still find this game tricky. City were superb in beating Northampton in the 1st Round and although their league form has taken a bit of a hit since, they have still been playing very well at times including when losing 3-2 to top of the table Dorking on Tuesday night. If they play as well as they did against Northampton I think they have got a real chance of reaching Round 3.

Barnet v MK Dons

Barnet are really struggling in the league this season and their performance against Burton in the 1st Round sticks out like a sore thumb. It was superb and they fully deserved to win. Sometimes you get teams who do well in the cup despite the fact they aren't anything special in the league and I just wonder if Barnet will be like that this season. MK Dons have only won 3 league games out of 14 this season and again it looks a match where we could see an upset.

Acca

Tranmere v Brackley get the action underway on BBC2 tonight and with Tranmere looking good at the moment I think they will be too strong for their National League North opponents. They have a new manager who has just taken over and he wont want a defeat in this. Kings Lynn scored with what was pretty much their only shot against Port Vale in Round 1 and I think Portsmouth will do a professional job on them. For the 3rd Round running I am trying to get Marine beat, but not being able to play since knocking out Colchester is hardly ideal. Havant are a very strong side as well. Boreham Wood have surprised me by their lack of goals in the league this season, but I can't see Canvey Island keeping them out. Canvey were very fortunate to knock out Banbury in the previous round and I would be disappointed if Wood blew this great opportunity to get to the 3rd Round

Solihull 1pt @ 3/1 with Bet365

Chorley 1pt @ 18/1 with Betfair (14s with Bet365)

Dagenham & Redbridge 1pt @ 9/2 with Bet365

Darlington 1pt @ 17/2 with Betfair (15/2 with Bet365)

Oxford City 1pt @ 9/1 with Betfair (8/1 with Bet365)

Barnet 1pt @ 4/1 with Bet365

Tranmere/Portsmouth/Havant & Waterlooville/Boreham Wood 2pts @ 3.1/1 with Bet365

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2 minutes ago, Shep65 said:

Well, Tranmere won, after a disallowed Brackley goal, so a good start on the short price mini  acca. Just the first 1/2 odds on step on our 265,000/1 10 fold acca for the weekend. ;-D....

Granted I was in the kitchen for some of the game putting dinner together, but I didn't see Brackley put the ball in the net. Was a dire watch, but a quality goal saw Tranmere home. What I will say though is it backs up my thinking that the Football League sides find it really tough in an empty stadium so hopefully we can get at least a couple of the 6 over the line.

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On 11/27/2020 at 12:50 AM, Darran said:

Peterborough v Chorley

I am taking a bit of a flyer here, but I thought Chorley did superbly well in coming from 2 down to beat Wigan in the last round. I know Wigan had 10 men, but even so it was a hell of an effort. Peterborough lost a couple of games before beating Plymouth last time and that gives a bit of hope. Also I can't imagine this will be high up on the list of targets for them. The lack of home fans I think favoured the Non-League sides in round 1 and that is why we saw so many go through and Chorley do have it in them to cause an upset. I think they are in a bit of a false position in the National League North and I just can't make them as big as 18/1 so its worth a having a crack at that price.

 

On 11/27/2020 at 12:50 AM, Darran said:

Chorley 1pt @ 18/1 with Betfair (14s with Bet365)

 

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1 hour ago, mijOsim said:

@Darran This was  marvelous mate. Chorley ran over Peterborough. 

What do you think why Marine came this far? Are they "big spenders" with quality or something else?

They have a good experienced manager and Chester and Colchester both played poorly against them which was a big help to their chances. 

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Great Job here - Solihull also a good Pick - didn´t Cash-Out at Solihull and lost - so after Chorley missed Penalty i´ve got feeling the same here. So cashed out, at 85th Minute. But this was great game of Chorley and great Pick. At least i think we will see 1 more Win Picks at Sunday from you´re Picks.

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Barring handicaps, where there's team news about one team sending out a weakened side, I don't recall anyone on PL tipping a 14/1 football shot in a 2 horse race - and nailing it. 

I must confess I was panicking in extra time, thinking it was too good to be true, and I cashed out - for a mere 13/1. 😃. Awesome Darran. Even in your illustrious tipping history here, that must rank amongst the best and most satisfying.

Seperately, the Solihull Moors game was a bit cruel, in that they could and should have been at least two goals up in the first half before Morecambe woke up - which would have been a winner by Bet365's terms - which could have kept the " retirement acca " alive for at least a few more hours. 😃

Whatever happens with the rest of your tips tomorrow, we're healthily in profit already. Form is temporary, class is permanent. Although your form this season so far this season has been off the scale...

Edited by Shep65
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Canvey Island vs Boreham Wood

OK, so I should put in a disclaimer before I write this FA Cup 2nd Round preview that you shouldn't expect any predictions on the level of @Darran here but I'll give it my best shot. It's Canvey Island versus Boreham Wood at 7:45pm GMT from Park Lane in Canvey Island. Both teams will be enjoying the limelight with this game being shown live on BT Sport 1.

Canvey Island will be relishing this time on the TV with the club not exactly having the best of times in the Isthmian League North this season. Head coach Mark Bentley has seen his team struggle to 1 win from their 5 league games played thus far with the team down in 15th place and just 1 point outside the relegation zone. The FA Cup has provided welcome relief both on the morale front and financial side of things. Banbury United, Cray Wanderers, Bedfont Sports, Biggleswade, Dereham Town, and Ware have all been eliminated by the Gulls on their epic journey to this round. The fact they had just 10 shots to Banbury United's 26 shots on goal in their last round suggests they might have ridden their luck at times!

Boreham Wood will be in the odd position of playing a game live on national television knowing they are the heavy favourites. Manager Luke Garrard's men are 16th in the National League but that's still several steps higher than their opponents for this game. The Wood needed penalties to get past League Two side Southend in the previous round. It was Wimborne Town who were their victims in the 4th Qualifying Round before that. It's been 4 games without a win since the conquering of Southend so they're not exactly a team enjoying a rich vein of form.

The FA Cup is a strange beast at the best of times and we all love a David versus Goliath affair. I fear that the opposition of Boreham Wood might not get the blood pumping for the Canvey Island players as much as a Football League club would have done. It'll sure be an intriguing game between these two but I think the away side should have enough about them to take the win.

Boreham Wood to Win & BTTS @ 3.00 with Betfred

Boreham Wood HT/FT @ 2.15 with BetVictor

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