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Racing Chat - Sunday 22nd Nov 2020


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There’s some interesting racing on Sunday on both sides of the Irish Sea. 

All eyes at Cork will be on APPRECIATE IT (12.55) on his hurdling debut. A top class bumper performer of Willie Mullins’ last season he went of 15/8 favourite for the Supreme Hurdle at Cheltenham when finding only stable mate and Fridays winner Ferny Hollow too good for him. He has nothing of that calibre to beat here and should win easily though as always it will be interesting to see how well he can hurdle. 

Navan feature the Grade 3 Monksfield Novice Hurdle with some highly promising novices from the big Irish yards in attendance. None more so than Gordon Elliot’s FAROUK D’ALENE  (12.10) who is unbeaten in an Irish point, two bumpers and a novice hurdle. This is his sternest test but I feel he can come through and put himself right up there with the best novices around so far seen this season. 

FAROUK D’ALENE 2 point win @ 13/8 william hill 

The other Graded race at Navan looks an easy assignment for last years RSA runner up MINELLA INDO – an easy winner at Wexford last time and only three opponents to face who are 13lb and upwards inferior to him. Like Appreciate It at Cork he will be at prohibitive odds.

 

 

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Full Sha Tin card and some fancies elsewhere for a bit of fun

Sha Tin
0445  -  10 Exaltation       -  11th
0515  -  2 Everyone's Delight   -  2nd 
0545  -  7 Mighty Giant   -   4th
0615  - 10 Super Ten    -  11th
0705  -  1 Hot King Prawn   -  WON 11/4
0740  -  12 Enrichment  -  5th
0810  -  4 Chefano  -  8th
0840  -  6 Winning For All   -  10th
0915  -  7 The Hulk   -   4th
0950  -  4 California Rad   -  6th

Exeter
1333 - 9 Putdecashonthedash   10/1 Bet365
1443 - 2 Getabuck    13/2 Bet365
1553 - 6 The Darley Lama    11/4 Bet365

Uttoxeter
1428  - 6 Sirobbie    6/1 Bet365
1538 - 4 Transpennine Star   7/1 Bet365

Wolverhampton
1525  - 8 Iconic Knight   7/2 Bet365
1700  - 8 De Little Engine  7/2 Bet365
1730  - 11 Global Acclamation   8/1 Bet365

Navan
1210  - 4 Fire Attack   7/2 Bet365   -  2nd

Bordeaux  - live on SSR 
1243 -  2 Usain Best   7/1 Bet365   - 11th
1437 -  3 Rooster  6/1 Bet365

Edited by ipswich45
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There's a 55.5% chance a trainer with the surname Williams will win the 2.08 at Exeter however I'll take a chance with T.Symonds charge SAINT DE VASSY 7/2 sky bet .  1ST 5/2

Has been off course since being pulled up 260 days ago when reportedly bled , is lightly raced & trainer flying of late 6 from 13 last 14 days .

 

There's 3 Group 2 races at Sha Tin tomorrow morning all with $4.5 million prize money , no wonder UK , Irish & French trained horses are ending up there & in the US with the amazing prize money on offer FURORE in the 8.10 has good chance but at 6/4 no value unfortunately .  1ST 2/1

Edited by calva decoy
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2 hours ago, calva decoy said:

There's a 55.5% chance a trainer with the surname Williams will win the 2.08 at Exeter however I'll take a chance with T.Symonds charge SAINT DE VASSY 7/2 sky bet .

Has been off course since being pulled up 260 days ago when reportedly bled , is lightly raced & trainer flying of late 6 from 13 last 14 days .

 

There's 3 Group 2 races at Sha Tin tomorrow morning all with $4.5 million prize money , no wonder UK , Irish & French trained horses are ending up there & in the US with the amazing prize money on offer FURORE in the 8.10 has good chance but at 6/4 no value unfortunately .

Yes the prize money in Hong Kong is unreal! 

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just seen this stats

 1.45 navan Willie Mullins targets this race with his decent novice chasers. Vautour, Douvan, Min and Al Boum Photo have all been victorious in this race down the years Mullins won this six times in the last seven years, the year he didn’t win, he didn’t have a runner!  blackbow is 6/4 to make it 7

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All prices Bet365:

12.48 Uttoxeter - 1pt e/w Rintulla @ 8/1

Still quite lightly raced and shaped really well on handicap and chase debut last time, right in the mix before fading late on when entitled to need the outing. With fitness on side, looks a prime candidate for this on that evidence and its runs in decent novice hurdles previously. Looks on a fair mark and anticipating a solid effort this afternoon.

1.03 Exeter - 1pt e/w  Fishy Story @ 28/1

Has a bit to find but ran okay back under rules last time when entitled to need the run. Prolific in points over the years including earlier this year and has beaten some decent types along the way in that sphere. These conditions ought to suit and with fitness now on side, wouldn't rule out a good run at a big price.

1.33 Exeter - 1pt e/w Butterwick Brook @ 14/1

Still an unexposed type, the Colin Tizzard runner looks interesting upped to three miles on his second run over fences. Had a pipe opener over 2 miles when last seen when not showing much but entitled to need that and the trip was on the short side. This one looks fairly handicapped on some useful novice hurdling form last season and that included a solid run behind two nice types over 2m5f at Ascot. On that evidence, three miles is well worth investigating and looks a healthy price.

2.08 Exeter - 3pts win Saint De Vassy @ 7/2

Quite a short price for me but I really think this one will win today. Tom Symond's horses couldn't be in better form and this horse has had excuses when pulled up on two of his last three runs. Burst a blood vessel last time and raced over 3 miles on another occasion which was too far. Inbetween those he was a clear 2nd to a very well handicapped horse and on that run should be capable of landing this.

2.50 Wolverhampton - 1pt e/w Desert Mist @ 22/1

Didn't run well last time and market isn't speaking particularly favourably on handicap debut but would have a solid chance after a promising enough turf debut and then running well behind a well handicapped, thriving horse on its second start. On that evidence, this mark looks more than fair but does need to bounce back from last time out. 

3.38 Uttoxeter - 3pts win Java Point @ 10/3

Another short one but I was sure this one was going to win last time but was weak in the market and folded tamely late on having jumped and travelled well. Looked in need of the run on that evidence and market support is strong today. Is definitely well handicapped and these conditions are spot on assuming he's fitter now and I expect him to repay the faith now. 

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Uttoxeter 2.28, Impulsive Star 40/1 ew paying 4 places. 

Ran a respectable race over hurdles in a decent class 2 last time out. Before that he was chasing and pulled up 4 times on the bounce over gruelling distances. Back over hurdles again today where he’s showed good form in the past . Dropped 4 Ibs from last race and is on a very workable mark. Jockey takes off 3 Ibs which will also help. Had a recent run, so should be fit enough and hopefully he can give a good run and get some place money.  Drop back in Distance could also dig out some improvement.

Edited by Villa Chris
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One Trixie today and some single bets:

12.48 Uttx Princess Roxy (£1 win at 4/1) 7/2 Trixie
3.18 Ex Avithos (85p at 5/1)
4.30 Wolv Inner Circle (£1 win at 4/1) 7/2

One £1 trixie = £4 with poss return of£214.50

Other bets:

1.33 Ex From the Heart £1 win at 9/2
1.33 Ex Rathlin Rose 50p win at 33/1

12.48 Utt Skipping On 50p win at 16/1
12.48 Utt Louse Talk 50p win at 15/2

3.38 Uttx Nifty At Fifty 50p win at 8/1

2.50 Wolv Toplight £1.50 win at 7/2

5.00 Wolv De Little Engine (HD) £1 win at 11/2
5.00 Wolv Sommer Katze 50p win at 33/1

Total Multiples = £4

Total win bets = £8.85

Total stakes = £12.85

=================================================================================================

I feel a little bit unlucky not to have made a small profit today but I'm not one for hard luck stories.

No winners on my multiples so a £4 loss.  The balance c/fwd is now £623.69 (£800 Bank)

One winner for my single best returned £6.75, so a loss of £2.10 on the day.  The balance c/fwd is now £150.68 (£400 Bank)

I will be doing things a bit different from tomorrow.  Essentially I will be backing favourites in one or two Trixies that are either top RPR or Timeform rated, ideally both.  This will result in shorter priced selections but the good news for me is that I should be able to cut down assessment time quite a lot.  I will probably stick to outsiders for the naps entries for the rest of this month and concentrate on the most number of winners next month.  Albeit, in the last week of the comp I will always consider some outsiders as that's the only way to win it.

 

 

 

 

Edited by The Equaliser
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4 hours ago, monty63 said:

just seen this stats

 1.45 navan Willie Mullins targets this race with his decent novice chasers. Vautour, Douvan, Min and Al Boum Photo have all been victorious in this race down the years Mullins won this six times in the last seven years, the year he didn’t win, he didn’t have a runner!  blackbow is 6/4 to make it 7

I've had a quick look at his statistics for November. The conclusions are:-

Ignore first time runners.

Ignore those that have won over C or D.

Ignore races less than 2m4f.

This leaves BRAHMA BULL in the 2.20 at Navan at 8/1. Up against a 2/9 favourite but nothing ventured nothing gained !

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15 hours ago, calva decoy said:

There's a 55.5% chance a trainer with the surname Williams will win the 2.08 at Exeter however I'll take a chance with T.Symonds charge SAINT DE VASSY 7/2 sky bet .  1ST 5/2

Has been off course since being pulled up 260 days ago when reportedly bled , is lightly raced & trainer flying of late 6 from 13 last 14 days .

 

There's 3 Group 2 races at Sha Tin tomorrow morning all with $4.5 million prize money , no wonder UK , Irish & French trained horses are ending up there & in the US with the amazing prize money on offer FURORE in the 8.10 has good chance but at 6/4 no value unfortunately .  1ST 2/1

Well done Calva - that trainer Tom Symonds is on fire 

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3 hours ago, Bathtime For Rupert said:

All prices Bet365:

12.48 Uttoxeter - 1pt e/w Rintulla @ 8/1

Still quite lightly raced and shaped really well on handicap and chase debut last time, right in the mix before fading late on when entitled to need the outing. With fitness on side, looks a prime candidate for this on that evidence and its runs in decent novice hurdles previously. Looks on a fair mark and anticipating a solid effort this afternoon.

1.03 Exeter - 1pt e/w  Fishy Story @ 28/1

Has a bit to find but ran okay back under rules last time when entitled to need the run. Prolific in points over the years including earlier this year and has beaten some decent types along the way in that sphere. These conditions ought to suit and with fitness now on side, wouldn't rule out a good run at a big price.

1.33 Exeter - 1pt e/w Butterwick Brook @ 14/1

Still an unexposed type, the Colin Tizzard runner looks interesting upped to three miles on his second run over fences. Had a pipe opener over 2 miles when last seen when not showing much but entitled to need that and the trip was on the short side. This one looks fairly handicapped on some useful novice hurdling form last season and that included a solid run behind two nice types over 2m5f at Ascot. On that evidence, three miles is well worth investigating and looks a healthy price.

2.08 Exeter - 3pts win Saint De Vassy @ 7/2

Quite a short price for me but I really think this one will win today. Tom Symond's horses couldn't be in better form and this horse has had excuses when pulled up on two of his last three runs. Burst a blood vessel last time and raced over 3 miles on another occasion which was too far. Inbetween those he was a clear 2nd to a very well handicapped horse and on that run should be capable of landing this.

2.50 Wolverhampton - 1pt e/w Desert Mist @ 22/1

Didn't run well last time and market isn't speaking particularly favourably on handicap debut but would have a solid chance after a promising enough turf debut and then running well behind a well handicapped, thriving horse on its second start. On that evidence, this mark looks more than fair but does need to bounce back from last time out. 

3.38 Uttoxeter - 3pts win Java Point @ 10/3

Another short one but I was sure this one was going to win last time but was weak in the market and folded tamely late on having jumped and travelled well. Looked in need of the run on that evidence and market support is strong today. Is definitely well handicapped and these conditions are spot on assuming he's fitter now and I expect him to repay the faith now. 

Nice winner with Saint De Vassy - good tipping 

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