The Brigadier Posted November 18, 2020 Share Posted November 18, 2020 The 48 hour declarations for this race will be out tomorrow morning but I think there's a bit of value which should be snapped up now. Heading the weights and currently the ante-post favourite is Cloudy Glen who was so impressive winning the Southern National last Sunday at Fontwell but I am led to believe he's unlikely to take up this engagement coming so soon. Pobbles Bay and Midnight Tune are two dyed in the wool stayers who must have chances but its towards the bottom of the weights that I'm looking with Nigel Hawke's ALMINAR will relish conditions and has had a nice run at Cheltenham 4 weeks ago when 3rd to Bermeo who has franked the form by going on to finish runner up at the Paddy Power meeting 3 weeks later. Devon trainer Hawke had a winner at Uttoxeter last weekend and his Nikap ran 2nd this afternoon at Warwick so we have no issues with trainer form. The capable David Noonan comes in for the ride and he's worth backing now before the final field is known tomorrow. 1 point e/w @ 16/1 unibet Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MCLARKE Posted November 19, 2020 Share Posted November 19, 2020 I'll use the same logic that arrived at the 20/1 winner last week although I do accept the strongly worded criticism in some quarters that using 7 races in the sample data is too limited. By far the strongest trend is that 23 horses have carried more than 11st 7lbs, 6 have won. Of the 40 that didn't, only 1 won. This reduces the field to 3,MIDNIGHT TUNE, PREFECT CANDIDATE and BALLYDINE. Unfortunately the next strongest trend eliminate all 3 of these horses, there have been 27 runners aged 9 or more and only 1 has won. There have been 18 horses that haven't run for over 100 days and 3 of these have won. This leaves MIDNIGHT TUNE as a tentative selection. Only WH have prices on odds-checker at the moment, it is 6/1. Might be worth betting each way with 4 places available although it does seem to win or pull up. Might be best to wait for the other bookies to put their prices up. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
richard-westwood Posted November 19, 2020 Share Posted November 19, 2020 Rated Midnight tune 288 Perfect candidate 286 Sheneededtherun 282 Midnight looked a talented horse last season but has a tendency to pull up so everything will depend on how he feels on the day ....perfect candidate has some strong form to date and shoukd run well with conditions to suit Midnight run 10pts ew 6/1 4places willh Perfect candidate 10pt ew 9/1 bet365 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
richard-westwood Posted November 21, 2020 Share Posted November 21, 2020 On 11/19/2020 at 3:38 PM, richard-westwood said: Rated Midnight tune 288 Perfect candidate 286 Sheneededtherun 282 Midnight looked a talented horse last season but has a tendency to pull up so everything will depend on how he feels on the day ....perfect candidate has some strong form to date and shoukd run well with conditions to suit Midnight run 10pts ew 6/1 4places willh Perfect candidate 10pt ew 9/1 bet365 Perfect candidate wins ...around 122pts returned vikki37 and Villa Chris 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Villa Chris Posted November 21, 2020 Share Posted November 21, 2020 Proper slog that was . Nice to see the old boy win again. richard-westwood 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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