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Racing Chat - 29th October


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Bourdeaux 10.55

 

Cafe Saigon 7/1 ew Bet365

A relatively low grade 6f+ stakes race with the market made by the Godolphin underachiever Stormy Mountain. However with its dam sire being Exceed and Excel, which tend to perform much better on Tapeta or GF turf I'm happy to take it on with regards to the heavy going reported today. 

Likewise the 2Fav Queen Kalhua whose current ability level seems to be on a downward slope since a 4th place to Earthlight in a listed sprint at Deauville in the summer, with its recent run being a disappointing 10/14 place in a relatively weak 13k race. 

 The 3rd fav Ipping I would rate at a similar level to the selection however with the relatively small trainer and owner being in v good relative form, and with undoubted stamina having placed over further and won and placed at solid Handicap level at the distance the bigger priced horse has to be the value. 

The worry would be that with a relatively small field it gets overly tactical like quite a lot of French races turning into a madcap 1F sprint in the finish however the jockey is reasonable for this level so hopefully they will judge the pace correctly and try and make this a proper stamina test. 

 

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Bourdeaux 12.25

 

Ascension Directe 20/1 ew Bet 365

Very short price fav in this 12k stakes race.Intellogent, a GP1 winner back in 2018.Only try on heavy was its last race  at St Cloud 2 weeks ago. Started as Fav with PCB on his back and even his super jockeyship couldn't manage to get him to pick up on the heavy going. Don't feel he is anywhere close to his Or at present  to be honest and the fact Pasquier comes all the way from Paris to ride him makes it feel like a banker- however his 1/2 on makes the market nicely for the others. There, are a few interesting lurkers capable I feel of improvement. 

The selection at the foot of the weights with 6lb claimer on board today made a satisfactory debut recently - and this 5yo mare is certainly open to improvement with the heavy ground sure to suit  from both the Sire and Dam sides breeding. 

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15.45 Lingfield

This can go the way of Sir Michael Stoute's SORREL (Nap) who is difficult to oppose here. This impressive Dansili filly is improving with each start and left a lasting impression with an eye catching victory at Doncaster last month, doing her best work close to home. She has progressed with each start to date, landing back-to-back handicaps at up to 1m4f in a Class 4 and a Class 2 in recent months and is now on for the three-timer. More to come now up in trip and is the type to go on improving for her legendary trainer and so she gets the vote now up in class.

 

Edited by ChasingDreams
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All odds Bet365:
 

1.15 Lingfield - 1[t e/w Dubai Tigress @ 14/1

Looks a live each-way player to me having run okay on debut at Kempton over 6f. That race was full of horses with experience including a couple rated around the 80 mark and wasn't beaten far by them. William Knight wouldn't have many first time out winners and this horse's pedigree contains quite a bit of stamina so 6f was always likely to catch it out on debut. Up to 7f today with that experience under its bet, can expect more now.

2.06 Stratford - 1pt e/w Generous Day @ 14/1

Form dipped a bit at the end of last season but had excuses on those efforts and has back form which would give him a big chance in this race. Is used to running in better races than this and conditions suit on seasonal reappearance. Has run well fresh a few times before and has had a wind op since he was last seen so freshened up, could go close if on a going day.

2.36 Stratford - 1pt e/w White Walker @ 25/1

Big price for a Skelton horse but I thought he had a chance here at an each-way price. Ran well on debut in a big field bumper and shaped better than the bare result both in its subsequent race on heavy ground and then on hurdling debut after a lengthy absence. Shaped as if in need of the run that day and should improve for this. Conditions should suit, he's a half brother to the decent jumper Bandsman and I think there's more in the tank from this one.

3.45 Lingfield - 1pt e/w Domino Darling @ 7/1

Doesn't quite have the form in the book yet but that's largely down to the fact that she hasn't had her conditions. Is bred to stay well so the step up in trip here is certain to suit and her effort when beaten 4 lengths in a listed event when last seen is decent enough considering she will certainly be best over further.

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Was having a discussion last night with a mate of mine and he asked me how good RP top rated were and would they be a profitable betting medium backing the top rated only?.
As Ive never used them I wouldn't know but I would imagine like most Top rated / betting Favs a SR of around 30-35% should be achievable,whether a profit can be gleaned from this is a different story, any man and his dog can hit 30+% by backing favs or Top rated blindly but its a way to the poor house.
Ive priced up the Top Rated horses from the races with full RP ratings pre off and noted the price available , so thought Id put them up as someone might have an interest .
Lets see how it goes , will put the evening ones up later as the missus has kindly found me some jobs to do which apparently are more important :eyes
Here are all today's qualifiers
image.png.8abf3c7a28b12d83bbe1c5f98dd4b946.png
Even though this is a small sample size certain parameters should still be there or thereabout to add some credibility to the RP ratings accuracy
Therefore....
At my expected odds (All runners)  4 or 5 winners would be an acceptable mark
At the early book odds (All runners) 5 or 6 winners would be an acceptable mark
At my expected odds with an expected edge (14 runners) 2 or 3 winners would be an acceptable mark

Edited by Valiant Thor
Add all the evening rated races
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20 hours ago, Wildgarden said:

415 Lingfield - three c's 11-2 betvictor 

Made good ground after being put wide around the turn lto and down in class and distance with Boughey trainer with decent hit rate on all weather, get price whilst it's still there.

Sadly poorer outing 6th at 5-1 sp

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7 hours ago, Valiant Thor said:

Was having a discussion last night with a mate of mine and he asked me how good RP top rated were and would they be a profitable betting medium backing the top rated only?.
As Ive never used them I wouldn't know but I would imagine like most Top rated / betting Favs a SR of around 30-35% should be achievable,whether a profit can be gleaned from this is a different story, any man and his dog can hit 30+% by backing favs or Top rated blindly but its a way to the poor house.
Ive priced up the Top Rated horses from the races with full RP ratings pre off and noted the price available , so thought Id put them up as someone might have an interest .
Lets see how it goes , will put the evening ones up later as the missus has kindly found me some jobs to do which apparently are more important :eyes
Here are all today's qualifiers
image.png.8abf3c7a28b12d83bbe1c5f98dd4b946.png
Even though this is a small sample size certain parameters should still be there or thereabout to add some credibility to the RP ratings accuracy
Therefore....
At my expected odds (All runners)  4 or 5 winners would be an acceptable mark
At the early book odds (All runners) 5 or 6 winners would be an acceptable mark
At my expected odds with an expected edge (14 runners) 2 or 3 winners would be an acceptable mark

Results
image.png.c3feb1b4554e3fcaaca30ab1ccfe2aa9.png
image.png.4047bc3ffd1b52855d9c9dac6ccdba22.png
Though a small sample it seems RPR's is a reasonable medium @ pointing you in the direction of winners though the ROI is something to be desired backing blindly.
Restricting bets to the ones that have an expected Edge return a better ROI on both Non BOG & BOG early prices in both cases SP is a non starter, which reinforces the idea of making your own tissue .
My own database doesn't have RPR saved so I cant back test a large enough amount of data to say whether the above is the norm or just noise, but if you dont make your own ratings it could be worthwhile investigating RPR's a bit deeper .
I might even fire a bot up on Betdaq and let in run on small stakes for a month & see how it fares (at least it will give me something to do in lockdown :lol )
ATB
VT :ok

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