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Racing chat - Monday 26th October


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There's a 19K handicap at Leicester on Monday at 2.00 and it's got just 2 runners ......... 

Current odds (bet365) are

Win O Clock 4/9
Buriran 7/4

I quite fancy the outsider of the two ....... well, he's only got one to beat !

This is a 12 furlong race on heavy ground. My horse has won over 14 furlongs and the odds on Fav has only won over 10 Furlongs. He's also 13lbs higher than his last handicap win and is a 3yo giving weight to an older horse.

My horse has De Sousa up ....... won on him last twice he's  been in the saddle and the Fav has a claimer (OK, a good one but still a claimer)

I can just see Sylvestre making the running knowing his horse will stay and running the legs off the younger horse

The favourite will undoubtedly be the better horse in time but in today's conditions I fancy the outsider !

Be interesting to see how the betting goes in the morning

 

 

 

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3 hours ago, Wildgarden said:

115 Redcar young fire win and place 6-1 betvictor /others 

Down to class 3 and looked like running on last race, same jockey on board in preferred smaller amount of runners.

Turn On The Charm is very much the one to beat but I am also taking a chance here on Young Fire. Will post write up but I like the pick and he seems slightly overpriced.

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12.30 Ayr

In what could be a telling Class 4 Mares Maiden Hurdle. The one to beat here is WHISKEY LULLABY who was purchased for a big fee from a top class French National Hunt pedigree. A half sister to Grade 2 winning chaser Petit Robin (167-rated and Queen Mother Champion Chase-placed as well as many other top two-mile hurdles and chases) and to the dam of Anibale Fly (174-rated and Gold Cup-placed). She showed promise when second on bumper debut earlier this year and the step up in trip on her hurdling bow is likely to see Paul Nicholls' mare take a decent step forward. This potentially high-class Filly is expected to do big things for the in-form Nicholls stable. Lady Bowes scored at the fourth time of asking in a soft-ground Perth bumper in August when making pretty much all and she has to be of interest along with Class Bishop Lady, who is expected to bounce back from her disappointing effort at Killarney earlier in the month.

12.40 Redcar

This is a race in which Mark Johnston has said he would really love to win and it is SOAPY STEVENS after his promising debut third at Nottingham that has a massive possibility to gift him just that so gets the verdict. This gelded son of multiple Grade 1 winning Harzand can build on that with the slightly longer trip looking sure to be in his favour. The superbly bred Derby entry Mahomes took a step forward from debut last time out and should do so again so rates the obvious danger ahead of the equally well bred William Haggas-trained Derby Entry Chalk Stream who looks set to improve on his decent second place finish on debut.

12.50 Leicester

This race revolves around the top two in the market. The impressive ALDAARY who received significant market backing first time out gets the vote. The William Haggas gelding forged clear by over 3 lengths at Yarmouth on debut and didn’t look like stopping when running on well at the finish. Up 6lbs more from that but shouldn’t be enough to stop him from following up in this field, he should take all the beating and is very capable of defying a penalty. The experienced and consistent Dark Illusion has acquitted himself well in soft ground nurseries of late and is the one to fear.

1.05 Ayr

This is an ultra competitive novice hurdle that can go to the well-bred CONFIRMATION BIAS. He made the perfect start in Wincanton bumper last November before running into a very good one when 14l (heavy) back at course and distance on Boxing Day under a penalty. He has since had a wind op and ought to be in the thick of things on today’s hurdle debut. The ever consistent and experienced Gordon Elliott trained Curlew Hill can go well and is a big threat to the selection with form of his third placed finish over in Ireland last time out working out well. Market leader Cadzand is also one to watch having showed serious ability in first 2 starts and has a significant role to play.

1.15 Redcar

YOUNG FIRE was a creditable fourth of 20 in a York handicap (1m, soft) 17 days ago when conceding first run and was only beaten 4l in the 6f Ayr Gold Cup so is taken to capture a career-second win here after scoring at Haydock (7, soft) last month. Market leader Turn On The Charm is progressing at a rate of knots and supplemented his breakthrough triumph at Kempton when defying a 5lb higher mark at Nottingham. He is up another 6lb today and a massive player if handling this softer surface. Global Spirit also arrives in winning form, having burst back on the scene at York last time out.

2.35 Leicester. 

Marginal preference in a decent handicap is for improving sort and tough HARTSWOOD who comes here with the scope for further progress after a light campaign. He so nearly completed a York double when close second at the Ebor meeting last time out and his victor has since placed well in Listed company. Ascension's hat-trick bid may have failed over 7f here, but he lost very little in defeat and there are still races in him off this mark so rates the chief threat. Three-time winner Dashing Roger is open to further progress and promises to be suited by this step up in trip so is not dismissed lightly.

3.15 Wexford

This looks like the perfect seasonal opener for RSA second MINELLA INDO (Nap) who is clearly the most talented horse in this field and if anywhere close to his best he will be difficult to oppose, he should take all the beating with an official rating of 160. Beaten close home at Cheltenham by Champ in a remarkable finish (one for the highlight reel), that was only his third start over fences and he is a very exciting prospect indeed. Milan Native is the main threat to the selection and has 11lb in his favour to work with on the selection. Turbojet won a beginners' chase by 11 lengths when last seen at Leopardstown in March and is the clear third best on paper so can run a good race in this high-class chase.

5.30 Newcastle

A chance can be taken on LUA DE MEL in this Class 4 competitive handicap sprint. This Course and distance winner here earlier in the year can make her presence felt, she has seemingly struggled racing over 6f since that win and can upset the market leaders here back down at 5f. This is the first time she’s dropped back down to 5f in 3 races and is eased in the weights slightly so this is an ideal opportunity for her to get back on track. Her best efforts have come from the front and she will be happier back on the AW with the booking of James Doyle a big plus who is 3 from 6 for the yard. Doc Sportello is an admirable veteran who never does much wrong and is a threat to the selection in first time blinkers. Tom Marquand has a good record onboard and he may be able to land an impressive seventh career win. Batchelor Boy who is 3-3 on Tapeta completes the shortlist.

Hope you all enjoy the read 👍

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3 hours ago, ChasingDreams said:

12.30 Ayr

In what could be a telling Class 4 Mares Maiden Hurdle. The one to beat here is WHISKEY LULLABY who was purchased for a big fee from a top class French National Hunt pedigree. A half sister to Grade 2 winning chaser Petit Robin (167-rated and Queen Mother Champion Chase-placed as well as many other top two-mile hurdles and chases) and to the dam of Anibale Fly (174-rated and Gold Cup-placed). She showed promise when second on bumper debut earlier this year and the step up in trip on her hurdling bow is likely to see Paul Nicholls' mare take a decent step forward. This potentially high-class Filly is expected to do big things for the in-form Nicholls stable. Lady Bowes scored at the fourth time of asking in a soft-ground Perth bumper in August when making pretty much all and she has to be of interest along with Class Bishop Lady, who is expected to bounce back from her disappointing effort at Killarney earlier in the month.

12.40 Redcar

This is a race in which Mark Johnston has said he would really love to win and it is SOAPY STEVENS after his promising debut third at Nottingham that has a massive possibility to gift him just that so gets the verdict. This gelded son of multiple Grade 1 winning Harzand can build on that with the slightly longer trip looking sure to be in his favour. The superbly bred Derby entry Mahomes took a step forward from debut last time out and should do so again so rates the obvious danger ahead of the equally well bred William Haggas-trained Derby Entry Chalk Stream who looks set to improve on his decent second place finish on debut.

12.50 Leicester

This race revolves around the top two in the market. The impressive ALDAARY who received significant market backing first time out gets the vote. The William Haggas gelding forged clear by over 3 lengths at Yarmouth on debut and didn’t look like stopping when running on well at the finish. Up 6lbs more from that but shouldn’t be enough to stop him from following up in this field, he should take all the beating and is very capable of defying a penalty. The experienced and consistent Dark Illusion has acquitted himself well in soft ground nurseries of late and is the one to fear.

1.05 Ayr

This is an ultra competitive novice hurdle that can go to the well-bred CONFIRMATION BIAS. He made the perfect start in Wincanton bumper last November before running into a very good one when 14l (heavy) back at course and distance on Boxing Day under a penalty. He has since had a wind op and ought to be in the thick of things on today’s hurdle debut. The ever consistent and experienced Gordon Elliott trained Curlew Hill can go well and is a big threat to the selection with form of his third placed finish over in Ireland last time out working out well. Market leader Cadzand is also one to watch having showed serious ability in first 2 starts and has a significant role to play.

1.15 Redcar

YOUNG FIRE was a creditable fourth of 20 in a York handicap (1m, soft) 17 days ago when conceding first run and was only beaten 4l in the 6f Ayr Gold Cup so is taken to capture a career-second win here after scoring at Haydock (7, soft) last month. Market leader Turn On The Charm is progressing at a rate of knots and supplemented his breakthrough triumph at Kempton when defying a 5lb higher mark at Nottingham. He is up another 6lb today and a massive player if handling this softer surface. Global Spirit also arrives in winning form, having burst back on the scene at York last time out.

2.35 Leicester. 

Marginal preference in a decent handicap is for improving sort and tough HARTSWOOD who comes here with the scope for further progress after a light campaign. He so nearly completed a York double when close second at the Ebor meeting last time out and his victor has since placed well in Listed company. Ascension's hat-trick bid may have failed over 7f here, but he lost very little in defeat and there are still races in him off this mark so rates the chief threat. Three-time winner Dashing Roger is open to further progress and promises to be suited by this step up in trip so is not dismissed lightly.

3.15 Wexford

This looks like the perfect seasonal opener for RSA second MINELLA INDO (Nap) who is clearly the most talented horse in this field and if anywhere close to his best he will be difficult to oppose, he should take all the beating with an official rating of 160. Beaten close home at Cheltenham by Champ in a remarkable finish (one for the highlight reel), that was only his third start over fences and he is a very exciting prospect indeed. Milan Native is the main threat to the selection and has 11lb in his favour to work with on the selection. Turbojet won a beginners' chase by 11 lengths when last seen at Leopardstown in March and is the clear third best on paper so can run a good race in this high-class chase.

5.30 Newcastle

A chance can be taken on LUA DE MEL in this Class 4 competitive handicap sprint. This Course and distance winner here earlier in the year can make her presence felt, she has seemingly struggled racing over 6f since that win and can upset the market leaders here back down at 5f. This is the first time she’s dropped back down to 5f in 3 races and is eased in the weights slightly so this is an ideal opportunity for her to get back on track. Her best efforts have come from the front and she will be happier back on the AW with the booking of James Doyle a big plus who is 3 from 6 for the yard. Doc Sportello is an admirable veteran who never does much wrong and is a threat to the selection in first time blinkers. Tom Marquand has a good record onboard and he may be able to land an impressive seventh career win. Batchelor Boy who is 3-3 on Tapeta completes the shortlist.

Hope you all enjoy the read 👍

This is really thorough and expertly researched. Looking forward to watching how the selections do.

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  • Darran changed the title to Racing chat - Monday 26th October
8 hours ago, ChasingDreams said:

Turn On The Charm is very much the one to beat but I am also taking a chance here on Young Fire. Will post write up but I like the pick and he seems slightly overpriced.

Now 7-2... Value there already glad I put double usual stake on 😉

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All prices Bet365:

12.20 Leicester - 1pt e/w Bannergirl @ 9/1

I backed this at huge odds at Kempton a couple of starts back but she zoomed up from the rear to dispute mid-race over a mile and dropped out. That said, she bounced back with a good run, staying on powerfully late on over 6f at Windsor when last seen and these conditions - 7f on heavy ground - could well see the best in her. Definite ability and having proved herself under similar conditions, can go well today. 

1.40 Ayr - 1pt e/w King of Fashion @ 40/1

Once upon a time was quite a useful type but has gone off the boil in recent times. That said, it's had an impact on his handicap mark and he hasn't been completely disgraced in decent hurdle races. He doesn't seem to stay three miles particularly strongly yet has exclusively been run over that far for a long time and I think the step back to 2m4f on chase debut can suit. He did win over 3 miles over hurdles but that came in a small, weak novice event when he was sent off at 4/9 which I don't think told us a lot about his stamina. Has had a wind op and at the age of 10 shouldn't have totally regressed so will give a chance today. 

2.35 Redcar - 2pts win King Carney @ 6/1

Ran a really good race behind Tempus a couple of starts back, galloping on relentlessly from the front and I was surprised that he was held up in the Cambridgeshire and never involved. That said, conditions suit here, a smaller field can see him revert to those prominent tactics, he loves soft ground and it could be tricky picking them up from off the pace given conditions and I hope he can get out handy and keep rolling. 

3.00 Redcar - 1pt e/w Sunset Katie @ 40/1

Goes handicapping after an couple of half-decent efforts over 7f and should improve for the drop back to 6f here. Wasn't disgraced on either of her last two runs when unlikely to cause much of a threat given her fairly modest ability but this will be easier, has shown enough speed to suggest the drop back in trip can suit, has blinkers on first time and the sire didn't mind a bit of cut so conditions potentially no problem either so worth a go at a big price.

3.35 Redcar - 1pt e/w Day Job @ 20/1

Ran okay in a few turf starts earlier in the season when not quite having the required pace to get involved and it was a similar story at Wolverhampton last time. That said, would have a chance on those early efforts now handicapping and the soft ground could help him lie up with the pace today. His sire didn't mind cut in the ground and now back on turf, could bounce back under these conditions after a break.

4.10 Redcar - 2pts win Wots The Wifi Code @ 9/2

Consistent type and can get a deserved win here. Was flying home having been outpaced at Pontefract last time, getting up for second, and this straight track can help him today. Soft ground suits, a good pace is likely here with a big field and should be storming home late in the day to get up.

 

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1.15 Red Turn On The Charm (OM) £2 win at 3.10 = £4.12.  Looks like Oisin Murphy's best ride of the day.

Back later to look at James Doyle and William Buick's rides at Newcastle

Not sure if I will get time to look at Brian Hughes' rides at Ayr as lunch will get in my way

==================================================================================================

Well the market didn't like this one; around evens when I backed it and out to 85/40 favourite.  To be honest I didn't like the winner that Oisin got called There's No Danger; however, it was backed into 11/8 favourite from around 3/1.  The market ruled today.  Very interesting

Two meetings over the jumps tomorrow, one flat and one all weather.  I am trying to organise some sort of cross referencing with my top jockeys whilst at the same time seeking to identify what I believe to be the jockey's best chance of a race win on the day. No less than 9 experts seemed to think that Turn On The Charm would be a great ride for Oisin Murphy, how wrong they were! Are we all being duped?

A £2 loss means a singles balance c/fwd of £153.49 (Bank £400)   

 

Edited by The Equaliser
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11 hours ago, ChasingDreams said:

12.30 Ayr

In what could be a telling Class 4 Mares Maiden Hurdle. The one to beat here is WHISKEY LULLABY who was purchased for a big fee from a top class French National Hunt pedigree. A half sister to Grade 2 winning chaser Petit Robin (167-rated and Queen Mother Champion Chase-placed as well as many other top two-mile hurdles and chases) and to the dam of Anibale Fly (174-rated and Gold Cup-placed). She showed promise when second on bumper debut earlier this year and the step up in trip on her hurdling bow is likely to see Paul Nicholls' mare take a decent step forward. This potentially high-class Filly is expected to do big things for the in-form Nicholls stable. Lady Bowes scored at the fourth time of asking in a soft-ground Perth bumper in August when making pretty much all and she has to be of interest along with Class Bishop Lady, who is expected to bounce back from her disappointing effort at Killarney earlier in the month.

12.40 Redcar

This is a race in which Mark Johnston has said he would really love to win and it is SOAPY STEVENS after his promising debut third at Nottingham that has a massive possibility to gift him just that so gets the verdict. This gelded son of multiple Grade 1 winning Harzand can build on that with the slightly longer trip looking sure to be in his favour. The superbly bred Derby entry Mahomes took a step forward from debut last time out and should do so again so rates the obvious danger ahead of the equally well bred William Haggas-trained Derby Entry Chalk Stream who looks set to improve on his decent second place finish on debut.

12.50 Leicester

This race revolves around the top two in the market. The impressive ALDAARY who received significant market backing first time out gets the vote. The William Haggas gelding forged clear by over 3 lengths at Yarmouth on debut and didn’t look like stopping when running on well at the finish. Up 6lbs more from that but shouldn’t be enough to stop him from following up in this field, he should take all the beating and is very capable of defying a penalty. The experienced and consistent Dark Illusion has acquitted himself well in soft ground nurseries of late and is the one to fear.

1.05 Ayr

This is an ultra competitive novice hurdle that can go to the well-bred CONFIRMATION BIAS. He made the perfect start in Wincanton bumper last November before running into a very good one when 14l (heavy) back at course and distance on Boxing Day under a penalty. He has since had a wind op and ought to be in the thick of things on today’s hurdle debut. The ever consistent and experienced Gordon Elliott trained Curlew Hill can go well and is a big threat to the selection with form of his third placed finish over in Ireland last time out working out well. Market leader Cadzand is also one to watch having showed serious ability in first 2 starts and has a significant role to play.

1.15 Redcar

YOUNG FIRE was a creditable fourth of 20 in a York handicap (1m, soft) 17 days ago when conceding first run and was only beaten 4l in the 6f Ayr Gold Cup so is taken to capture a career-second win here after scoring at Haydock (7, soft) last month. Market leader Turn On The Charm is progressing at a rate of knots and supplemented his breakthrough triumph at Kempton when defying a 5lb higher mark at Nottingham. He is up another 6lb today and a massive player if handling this softer surface. Global Spirit also arrives in winning form, having burst back on the scene at York last time out.

2.35 Leicester. 

Marginal preference in a decent handicap is for improving sort and tough HARTSWOOD who comes here with the scope for further progress after a light campaign. He so nearly completed a York double when close second at the Ebor meeting last time out and his victor has since placed well in Listed company. Ascension's hat-trick bid may have failed over 7f here, but he lost very little in defeat and there are still races in him off this mark so rates the chief threat. Three-time winner Dashing Roger is open to further progress and promises to be suited by this step up in trip so is not dismissed lightly.

3.15 Wexford

This looks like the perfect seasonal opener for RSA second MINELLA INDO (Nap) who is clearly the most talented horse in this field and if anywhere close to his best he will be difficult to oppose, he should take all the beating with an official rating of 160. Beaten close home at Cheltenham by Champ in a remarkable finish (one for the highlight reel), that was only his third start over fences and he is a very exciting prospect indeed. Milan Native is the main threat to the selection and has 11lb in his favour to work with on the selection. Turbojet won a beginners' chase by 11 lengths when last seen at Leopardstown in March and is the clear third best on paper so can run a good race in this high-class chase.

5.30 Newcastle

A chance can be taken on LUA DE MEL in this Class 4 competitive handicap sprint. This Course and distance winner here earlier in the year can make her presence felt, she has seemingly struggled racing over 6f since that win and can upset the market leaders here back down at 5f. This is the first time she’s dropped back down to 5f in 3 races and is eased in the weights slightly so this is an ideal opportunity for her to get back on track. Her best efforts have come from the front and she will be happier back on the AW with the booking of James Doyle a big plus who is 3 from 6 for the yard. Doc Sportello is an admirable veteran who never does much wrong and is a threat to the selection in first time blinkers. Tom Marquand has a good record onboard and he may be able to land an impressive seventh career win. Batchelor Boy who is 3-3 on Tapeta completes the shortlist.

Hope you all enjoy the read 👍

3 winners from the selections. Aldaary who looks like a monster and could be very special  wins by an easy 9l at 4/7 and will surely be stepped up quickly. Young Fire who travelled very smoothly to take down the hot favourite and the rest of the field by 3-3/4l at a generous 6/1 when selected and another winning NAP in Minella Indo at 8/11. A horse of real class, a true superstar who I’m sure has some huge wins forthcoming this season.

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9 minutes ago, Wildgarden said:

630 Newcastle ask the wind 9/4 bet 365 /others

 

Carrollis profitable last 5 years for allweather favs and this looks like the only contender for me down in class with credible 2nd lto.

Drifted out to 4-1 and placed 2nd with good effort near the end of the race 🤣

Edited by Wildgarden
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