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Tennis Tips - November 2 - November 8


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Sebastian Korda to beat Tomas Machac at 2.15 with Pinnacle Honestly, I'm not quite sure what makes Machac the favorite here. Sure, he's got a lot of talent, but he hasn't played on a hard court f

Just an insight Sandgren ran in the snow in Kazakstan without tshirt as a punsihment after losing his match. So he may be motivated.

Some players check out at this stage of the season, to the point that it's hard to understand why they even bother to play. I've noticed over the years that if a player has lost their last three or fo

1 hour ago, CzechPunter said:

Any reasons for those bets @vladisimo2?

Raonic herbert should be reasonably close , since herbert is a good serve and volley player and raonic is well raonic. Herbert also plays on home soil. Wawrinka paul could be an easy match for stan if tommy doesn't show up at all (I've seen paul do that before ), but after the performance against simon I think paul can keep it reasonably close or even trouble stan if he missfires. And nadal is just a vastly superior player compared to lopez, and excepting the case that lopez serves at a very high first serve percentage , he shouldn't trouble nadal at all since it's a prety slow court.

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44 minutes ago, vladisimo2 said:

I never realy bet on handicaps, so yeah maybe dunno how that works. The odds don't realy matter to me as long as I win.

I hope you don't mind me saying my point of view about the Nadal - Lopez matchup.  Nadal 2-0 is at 1.33-1.35 odds, which is an awful bad bet in my opinion, considering the factors: its indoors, Nadal always hated indoors, I don't think he's any special on it either, besides his obvious good level of tennis. Lopez showed yesterday, that even though he is at his end, he still gives it - Krajinovic is incosistent yes, but having only 2 breakpoints shows that  Lopez's serve is working well at the moment. 

I do feel like Lopez's serve + coming at the net can upset Nadal in many ways, so If I had to bet on this match(but I don't), it would be +5.5, or over 19.5 games, good odds both. Now I'm not saying Nadal won't win this 2-0, all I'm saying the odds of Nadal winning this 2-0 is not 1.33-ish, its way higher in reality.

Edited by rodxuabht
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2 hours ago, rodxuabht said:

I hope you don't mind me saying my point of view about the Nadal - Lopez matchup.  Nadal 2-0 is at 1.33-1.35 odds, which is an awful bad bet in my opinion, considering the factors: its indoors, Nadal always hated indoors, I don't think he's any special on it either, besides his obvious good level of tennis. Lopez showed yesterday, that even though he is at his end, he still gives it - Krajinovic is incosistent yes, but having only 2 breakpoints shows that  Lopez's serve is working well at the moment. 

I do feel like Lopez's serve + coming at the net can upset Nadal in many ways, so If I had to bet on this match(but I don't), it would be +5.5, or over 19.5 games, good odds both. Now I'm not saying Nadal won't win this 2-0, all I'm saying the odds of Nadal winning this 2-0 is not 1.33-ish, its way higher in reality.

Agree with this. Also @vladisimo2 odds are important - an extreme example to illustrate the point is winning 9 out of every 10 bets. At average odds of 1.05, that's a losing proposition whereas at average odds of 1.20 you'd be making a very nice profit. Winning is always relative to the odds.

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43 minutes ago, Torque said:

Agree with this. Also @vladisimo2 odds are important - an extreme example to illustrate the point is winning 9 out of every 10 bets. At average odds of 1.05, that's a losing proposition whereas at average odds of 1.20 you'd be making a very nice profit. Winning is always relative to the odds.

It's cool man everyone can bet whatever they want I just said that this is how I viewed today's matches. Also my average odds aren't anywhere near 1,05, I 've never even bet on a tennis match where someone had 1,05 odds to do something.

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3 hours ago, rodxuabht said:

I hope you don't mind me saying my point of view about the Nadal - Lopez matchup.  Nadal 2-0 is at 1.33-1.35 odds, which is an awful bad bet in my opinion, considering the factors: its indoors, Nadal always hated indoors, I don't think he's any special on it either, besides his obvious good level of tennis. Lopez showed yesterday, that even though he is at his end, he still gives it - Krajinovic is incosistent yes, but having only 2 breakpoints shows that  Lopez's serve is working well at the moment. 

I do feel like Lopez's serve + coming at the net can upset Nadal in many ways, so If I had to bet on this match(but I don't), it would be +5.5, or over 19.5 games, good odds both. Now I'm not saying Nadal won't win this 2-0, all I'm saying the odds of Nadal winning this 2-0 is not 1.33-ish, its way higher in reality.

I know rafa always hated indors and never won in Paris or Nitto , but I still feel that he can straight set lopez. Krajinovic is not nadal, and I think if Rafa chose to play here he chose it for a reason. Also yeah the odds are most of the time unfair concerning most of the bets , but as long as you win the bet ,to me atleast it doesn't matter.

Edited by vladisimo2
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Going with two more in the Challengers.

Alexei Popyrin to beat Zdenek Kolar at 1.71 with Pinnacle

Jurij Rodionov (+3.5) to beat Ilya Ivashka at 1.80 with Bet365

Zdenek Kolar has finally managed to get a win on the board, but I still don't like his form and progress. Popyrin is way more decent than Kolar's previous opponent and should be a bigger fav imo, especially indoors. Meanwhile, Rodionov isn't worse than Ivashka in my opinion and should cover the +3.5 line more often than not. He was in good form in Vienna, where he won against Shapovalov and fought decently against Evans. This is less tricky than Evans and he should be getting many easy holds, so I reckon we're going to see at least one tie-break. The odds for Rodionov outright are also very playable imo.

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Today I'd take humbert to beat cilic , since his odds are actualy quite big(1,60) -he just seems more solid , more motivated , he's also got that lefty advantage .

Rublev will in my opinion straight set stan again, he is consistent enough to repeatedly push stan back and make him commit forced errors.

And at giron against raonic I would go with over 8,5 games in the first set-giron seems to be in fine form and he did push raonic prety hard in Indian Wells 2019 . 

Also can you guys post a good link here about handicap betting on tennis ?  Seems like an interesting option.

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38 minutes ago, CzechPunter said:

Not sure what's there to be asked about handicap betting, but fire away if you have any questions!

How the hell does it work ? You just add and deduce the games difference between players ? In retrospective I've read about it and got it. Unfortunately it seems the online betting houses in my country don't realy cover much of the handicap market in tennis, they only have a couple of options concerning that.

Edited by vladisimo2
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Yes. You add/subtract the handicap from the final count of games/sets.

Ex 1: Lopez +5.5 games

Final result was: 4-6, 7-6, 6-4. Rafa games: 4+7+6 = 17. Lopez games: 6+6+4 = 16.

Result after handicap +5.5 on Lopez: Rafa games = 17. Lopez games 21.5. 

Because the bet was on Lopez and he's got more games after the final math, the bet won.

 

Ex: 2 Nadal -3.5 games

Final result was: 4-6, 7-6, 6-4. Rafa games: 4+7+6 = 17. Lopez games: 6+6+4 = 16.

Result after handicap -3.5 on Nadal: Rafa games = 13.5. Lopez games 16. 

Because the bet was on Nadal and he's got less games after the final math, the best lost.

 

The same is with sets handicap.

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2 minutes ago, vvararu said:

Yes. You add/subtract the handicap from the final count of games/sets.

Ex 1: Lopez +5.5 games

Final result was: 4-6, 7-6, 6-4. Rafa games: 4+7+6 = 17. Lopez games: 6+6+4 = 16.

Result after handicap +5.5 on Lopez: Rafa games = 17. Lopez games 21.5. 

Because the bet was on Lopez and he's got more games after the final math, the bet won.

 

Ex: 2 Nadal -3.5 games

Final result was: 4-6, 7-6, 6-4. Rafa games: 4+7+6 = 17. Lopez games: 6+6+4 = 16.

Result after handicap -3.5 on Nadal: Rafa games = 13.5. Lopez games 16. 

Because the bet was on Nadal and he's got less games after the final math, the best lost.

 

The same is with sets handicap.

Ok thanks, I thought it was more complex than this . Yeah I knew about sets handicap , been using it for years now. Should have used that handicap on lopez last evening, the guys here were spot on.

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Humbert - Raonic: Raonic - 1.44 at bet365Humbert is lucky to be in this round, lucky as in Cilic is utter trash. -> Raonic's serve seems to work, so that should not be a big problem, whereas Humbert has his moments of serving, but also got extremely low moments pretty often, so Raonic will have several breakpoints. 

Edited by rodxuabht
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welp I've won everything but the match rublev-wawrinka, I think that took most of us by surprise. On one hand I'm happy that stan won since he's my favorite player (I also like rublev alot) , on the other hand that loss took quite a chunk of my budget.

I actualy think humbert-raonic will be reasonably close since humbert did atleast one good thing  against cilic , he served well. I went with over 19,5 games total( you can go with over 18,5 to play it a bit safer as I can also see milos imposing himself easily but I'm just not sure about humbert, he's a weird player ).

zverev to beat wawrinka - zverev served well and he is a better defender and a more consistent player compared to rublev.  Stan will probably push back and give zverev trouble, but if the german's serve works as it did till now, he will always be the one that gets  more BP's than stan.

AND the last one would be rafa-busta , over 17,5 games. Nadal struggled more than I could believe against both lopez and thompson, he truly does seem to find it hard on these courts. Busta looked ok , doing his thing, he seems more comfortable than rafa here. If the match against thompson was over 17.5 games, I don't see why busta can't match that. But hey rafa does grow stronger during tournaments, so who knows ? maybe he's gonna give busta a beating.

Edited by vladisimo2
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11 minutes ago, vvararu said:

Stan is a strange man but he is my soul player (which is bad in betting) :) Many times I bet on him against worse players and he lost. When he is playing against very good players (having odds 4.5), of course i am afraid to bet on him :(

I won alot of money betting against stan. I wanted to atleast sweeten his defeats with some money in my pocket :)).

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