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Racing Chat - Saturday 24th September


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Saturday morning sees the biggest WFA race in Australia, the Cox Plate. It looks a fascinating renewal and one I think will go to the home team. Other bets for Saturday will be posted later today.
 
Kodling - Had lost his way, but has been back in form this prep having won the G1 George Main and the G2 Hill Stakes the last twice.  He proved he stays 2000m last time and he was 2L in front of Avilius who ran well in the Caulfield Cup last week. Has a chance and wont mind if the rain hits and we get into the Soft range.
 
Humidor - The horse who pushed Winx very close in 2017 and was then 3rd the following year. He looked like he had lost his way, but Chris Waller has completely turned his form around. Was a shock winner here over 1600m on his 1st runthis prep and then split Russian Camelot and Arcadia Queen in the Underwood at Caulfield. Was behind those 2 when 3rd last time in the Caulfield Stakes, but I suspect the race wasn't run to suit. His jockey Craig Williams was very bullish about him when he worked at the track earlier in the week and he clearly loves The Valley. If he hadn't been drawn in 14 I would have put him up as an e/w chance, but I reckon he outruns his odds.
 
Fierce Impact - A very consistent horse who beat Russian Camelot over 1600m at Flemington in the Makybe Diva Stakes. He was then 3rd to Kolding in the Hill Stakes. He handles a wet track, but his form over 2000m isn't as strong as others which is enough to put me off.
 
Master Of Wine - Just 10th in the Caulfield Cup last week and it is hard to see him playing a part here.
 
Mugatoo - Has shown massive progression since coming over from the UK and was very good this prep winning 3 on the bounce and then finished 2nd in The Met at Randwick last time. I'm surprised they didn't go to the Caulfield Cup with him as he looked a big player to me in that, but he was well behind Verry Elleegant in his only WFA G1 in the Tancred Stakes and that suggests he has a bit too find here.
 
Aspetar - Is a hold up horse so his draw of 3 doesn't actually do him too many favours. He seems an odd choice for this race to me given his hold up style and he is going to a need a fair bit of luck in running from the inside. Most of his form is over 2400m, but did win the York Stakes last time. He won easily although it wasn't a strong race. It is a shame he had to miss the Juddmonte International as it would have given us a better idea of how good he is, but since December he's only had two runs both coming in July and that concerns me as well.
 
Sir Dragonet - Has finished 2nd on all 4 starts this season although his 2nd to Magical last time obviously reads well enough. Hasn't won since his Chester Vase win when he made it 2/2 although he did go on to go off 11/4f for the Derby when he was 5th. It will be interesting if new connections ride him differently as surely his hold up style isn't going to be a plus here. Cut in the ground does suit though.
 
Magic Wand - Scratched
 
Arcadia Queen - Went off favourite for the Everest last year, but out to this trip last time beat Russian Camelot in the Caulfield Stakes. That was a really good performance, but it was a bit of a sit and sprint contest and this won't be. There is a doubt about her on soft ground as well if the rain hits. I just think if this race is run at a true tempo she might struggle to see it out as well as others especially if we see a Soft 6.
 
Nettoyer - Loves eating pizza and got stuck into one after winning the G1 Doncaster at huge odds in the Autumn. Was 2nd in a G3 last time and her form isn't good enough for this. 
 
Russian Camelot - Looked superb when winning the South Australian Derby in May and returned this prep with a very good 2nd over 1600m to Fierce Impact at Flemington in September. I loved the way he hit the line that day and he duly won the Underwood in good style at Caulfield on his next start. Was beaten at 2/5 in the Caulfield Stakes by Arcadia Queen, but the way that race was run would not have suited and this race will surely be run at a stronger tempo. The draw looks horrific on paper, but I just wonder if sitting on the outside of runners rather than trapped on the inside might help him and he should get a clearer run than some of his rivals. Rain will be an added plus as well.
 
Armory - Looks the pick of the UK & Irish runners having won a G3 over this trip at the Curragh and then finishing a 2L 3rd to Magical in the Irish Champion Stakes. He had been 4th in the Irish 2000 Guineas at the start of the season as well. If he can back up the run at Leopardstown or even improve on it then he is a big danger to the locals.
 
Probabeel - She was going to be my pick for the Epsom last time until she got a shocking draw and it put me off. McEvoy gave her a peach of a ride though and she was an impressive winner. She has finished in the top 2 in 14 of her 18 starts and McEovy has a great record on her. She has only run over this distance once when finishing 2nd in a G1 back in March, but she is drawn in 2 and I think she will be able to sit handy behind the speed and could well get first run on those needing to come from behind. She has form on a wet track so that should hold no fears and she has a big chance.
 
Grandslam - God knows what he is even doing in the race given 2 starts back he was beaten in a BM64 at Flemington. He was 3rd at a massive price in the Caulfield Guineas last time and he will likely set the pace, but he is a doubtful stayer and shouldn't be good enough.
 
Buckhurst - Surprising he didn't get a place in the race to start with, but gets in with Magic Wand coming out. Didn't run too badly in the Caulfield Cup last week and I reckon this trip suits him better. Not sure he's good enough to win, but he should run well enough.
 
Verdict - I am going to go with Russian Camelot here. I think he is better than he was able to show behind Arcadia Queen last time and he should get a stronger gallop here which is what he needs over this trip. I am also going to cover Probabeel who is so consistent and looks to be drawn to get the perfect run. Armory can be best of the UK & Irish runners and Humidor is can out run his odds at his favourite venue.
 
Russian Camelot @ 4/1 with William Hill
Probabeel @ 17/2 with Betfair
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Moonee Valley R6 (4.15am)

Young Werther looks a decent bet here. He has to reverse form with Khoekhoe from Flemington last time, but I think he will as he was unlucky not to win that day. He wasn't able to get going until 150m out and e flew home to clock the fastest last 200m in the race. His debut win at Geelong was good and with a good draw in 4 he looks the one to beat.

Young Werther @ 5/4 with William Hill

Moonee Valley R7 (4.50am)

Ex French horse Olmedo looks worth going with here. He had good form in France including finishing 2nd to The Revenant in a G2 at Longchamp on Arc weekend last year. He has only been seen once since and that was in a G2 at Rosehill in March where he faded out of it late in testing ground. He's better than that and if able to show his best 1st up I think he can land this for Chris Waller.

Olmedo @ 5/1 with Bet365

Moonee Valley R8 (5.30am)

Selino is interesting on his first start since finishing 2nd in the Doncaster Cup last month, but I just wonder if he will find this too sharp a test. Instead I will give his stablemate, Shared Ambition, one more chance. I thought he ran well enough last time when I put him up to go with him again over a trip he wants. A bit of cut in the ground would suit as well. I am also going with Gallic Chieftain who just missed landing the place money when 4th in the Herbert Power last time. Chapada won that contest and he ran well enough in the Caulfield Cup last week to give the form a boost. He is a course and distance winner and also doesn't mind if we see plenty of rain.

Shared Ambition @ 11/4 with William Hill

Gallic Chieftain @ 14/1 with William Hill

Randwick R3 (4am)

Just the one bet for me up in Sydney and that is Godolphin's Destination. He was 2nd in a Listed Race over 1100m at Rosehill last month and that form looks strong given the winner has won since. He ran the best last 600m, 400m and 200m of the day as well and he looks like he needs 1200m now.

Destination @ 9/4 with William Hill

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3-15 Cheltenham TOBEFAIR

Debra Hamer and Tom Bellamy combined to win this with Tobefair last season. The then nine-year- old defied top-weight to see off the likes of Sunset Showdown and Sykes. Despite his advancing age, he was only seen on the racecourse four times last season. He is far from over-raced. He has won twice at this track in the past and ground conditions are completely in his favour today. Jack Tudor’s five pound claim will be a valuable asset and he has been riding plenty of winners for the likes of Christian Williams and Suzi Best amongst others. Despite carrying the burden of top-weight yet again, he is the only course and distance winner in the field. Whilst potentially vulnerable to an improving type, he has proven he can go well fresh in the past. He is the highest rated horse in this field by some margin and it will be of little surprise to see his class shine through.

3-50 Cheltenham FRODON

The charismatic eight-year-old is a model of consistency and he has built up a fantastic relationship with Brony Frost who is on board yet again this afternoon. He is back down to a wining mark and being a multiple course and distance winner will do his chances no harm either. He prefers good ground and that appears to be on offer here this afternoon. He knows every blade of grass around Prestbury Park and is another that has gone well fresh in the past. Despite not running since March, Paul Nicholls has made a blistering start to the campaign and Frodon is more than capable of making his presence felt. A big run is likely

5-00 Cheltenham BALLYMALIN

Ballymalin hasn’t been seen since chasing home Bafana Blue at Carlisle almost a year ago. He was giving half a stone away to his younger rival that day and ultimately paid the price going down by three lengths in the end over a trip, which in truth, probably stretches his stamina as far as it can go these days. A return to an extended three miles will be more to his liking and his young jockey is no stranger to big race successes having won the Welsh Grand National on board The New One and the Betfair Chase on Benbens for the same yard. Ballymalin wouldn’t mind a drop of rain so if any falls, his chances would certainly increase. He has won after lengthy lay-offs in the past so fitness shouldn’t be an issue. Ballymalin remains well handicapped on the best of his old form and he can go close here.

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440 donc 

Ice lord  313

Samphire coast  310 

A race of maybe and questions ...erich bloch and zip the favs are looking a bit exposed now so that makes them vulnerable to something ...ice lord bulk form has been over 6f but he is so good over 6f that 7f is well within his  compass and worth a try in this to see if he can last home ......samphire coast is the 40/1 outsider but has some good form on the all weather over a mile .....total unknown on soft but takes a huge weight drop as a result so if he can translate anywhere near then could spring a shock 

Ice lord 10pt ew 9/1 pp

Samphire coast 10pt ew 40/1 pp

Edited by richard-westwood
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2.05 Cheltenham

A very intriguing early season race for these four year olds. The one to beat here is ALLMANKIND, who was the best of these last year and rates an obvious contender. This gelding won his first three starts over hurdles, notably the Prestbury Juvenile Hurdle over course and distance and the Finale Juvenile Hurdle at Chepstow. He was too keen when last seen in this years Triumpth Hurdle and can learn from his big race credentials so there should be more to come. Two and a half lengths separated Allmankind and Botox Has here in November and despite giving 4lbs to his rival, it’s a fairly sizeable gap to bridge on terms. Likewise, Allmankind had another of these rivals, Nordano, a long way behind when storming to a dominant nine length win in the Grade 1 Finale Juvenile Hurdle at Chepstow over Christmas in very eye catching style, travelling smoothly throughout. This will be his last run against four year olds, so I expect him to use his experience wisely and run a very big race here. Dan Skelton has said he will take a good deal of beating and I second this with stable in scintillating form. Major player.

3.50 Cheltenham

Of many fascinating races on this high quality Cheltenham card is the Class 2 handicap chase over 3 miles 1 furlong and the horse that looks most interesting is Dan Skelton’s COBRA DE MAI. This impressive 8 year old offers a lot of value at the prices, having been consistent at this track over the years, not least when staying on sixth in the Ultima Handicap Chase at the festival this year, which is about the best form on offer. He made his seasonal return at Fontwell where he looked like he needed the runaround and he should now be primed for this, being 4lb lower than his sixth in the Ultima. Stable are flying at the minute and so he’s hard to ignore, he can make his presence felt and I expect him to be bang there.

The Frodon and Bryony Frost love story looks set to continue in to another season and he rates a chief threat with course and distance form, winning over this track and trip in early 2019. I have always felt Frodon would appreciate a more firm surface, with his bold front running gallop, so he’s also interesting.

2.55 Doncaster

Aidan O'Brien has a terrific record in this race, winning it twice in the last three years and nine times in total. His leading contender WEMBLEY has been very consistent throughout his career so far, winning once and placing five times. This Galileo colt got off the mark in terrific style during the summer at Roscommon and it looks as though this colt thrives on soft ground. He also has solid form on good ground, running very well finishing second behind Thunder Moon in the Group One National Stakes at the Curragh. That set him up tremendously well for a primed run in the Dewhurst Stakes at Newmarket when a close second to stablemate St Mark's Basilica staying on well making headway approaching final furlong after being at the rear for the majority of the race. His two recent Group 1 runner up finishes offer the best form heading into what looks to be a weak renewal of the race this year and he’s the one to beat.

Megallan can pose a big threat if getting the run of the race this time, after an eye catching fourth to One Ruler in the Group 3 Autumn Stakes over 1m soft, staying on well. However, this is an even bigger step up but he is of interest. One Ruler is capable of even better, as is King Vega. However there are uncertainties over the ground for both.

Edited by ChasingDreams
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A mixed bag of racing today with two soft ground late season Flat meetings at Newbury and Doncaster and day 2 of Cheltenham’s showcase meeting plus Kelso (NH) and Chelmsford (AW) – something for everyone today!

OSCA LOCA (5.00 Cheltenham) could be well handicapped on her handicap debut for Welsh trainer Tim Vaughan. The 7 year old mare has come through the Irish pointing system, having comfortably won two points in Feb 2019 prior to a easy hunter chase win at Cork two months later beating a horse that has won twice since. Following a 536 day absence she joined Vaughan and ran an eye catching 6th in a half decent novice hurdle at Chepstow a fortnight ago where the trip was woefully too short. That will have primed her up for this Amateur riders handicap chase today and the capable Jack Andrews (17 wins from 162 rides in last 5 years) takes the ride. Her year older full sister Clondaw Castle is now rated 149 so Osca Loca's initial mark of 115 could be very workable to say the least.

As you would expect for a race of this nature there are plenty of dangers including Lillington who will be ridden by Liam Trott on only his 4th ever ride, Jens Boy who has plenty of ability but apparently quirks to go with it. The same can also be said about David Pipe’s representative Buster Edwards. Call Me Vic should be thereabouts now being trained by point-to-point trainer Sally Randall’s other half Fergal O’Brien though he is rising 14 years old now (the horse not Fergal!).

1 point each way 8/1 (PP/Skybet/Betway) 1/5th odds 4 places

GOODBYE DANCER (3.15 Cheltenham) is worth a speculative each way bet with the firms paying enhanced place terms. Paddy Brennan has been fasting to get down to his minimum weight to ride local trainer Fergal O’Briens bottom weight off of 10 stone here. He’s hard to fancy on his two mid Summer runs when he failed to beat a rival (dropped 5lb for those two defeats) but he is a very well handicapped horse on his two runs here this last season. He looked the likely winner when crashing out at the last on New Years Day and despite being 1lb out of the handicap can race off of a 8lb lower mark here. That fall may have left its mark as he hasn’t shown much since but I’m hoping the return to the scene of his last win may spark him up to run well at a big price. Any rain that may fall at Prestbury Park will be in his favour.

There’s plenty of dangers with last year’s winner Tobefair heading the weights off of a 3lb higher mark with Tom Lacey’s Nevilles’s Cross who bolted up last time already well backed and sure to be thereabouts.

1/2 point each way 16/1 (Skybet) 1/5th odds 6 places

The day’s big flat contest is sponsored by racehorse owner and DJ (it’s not often you can band those two words together!) John Dance’s company Vertem and it looks a good renewal. Favourite and well backed is Aiden O’Brien’s Dewhurst runner up Wembley who represents his trainer from seven entered at the six day declaration stage. He sets the standard but obviously has been well found in the market. Charlie Appleby’s One Ruler impressed when winning the Autumn Stakes on soft ground at Newmarket from the worst of the draw on the same card as Wembley and looks sure to run well.

A horse I’ve been waiting to run is KING VEGA (3.55 Doncaster) following two highly promising seconds at Sandown on good ground. He was a tad unlucky when runner up in the Solario Stakes to Etonian last time coming from some way back and looking clueless. I’m told he’s a much more polished horse now and the initial quotes of 16/1 with Ladbrokes were quickly taken earlier in the week. His trainer Andrew Balding took this last year with subsequent 2000 Guineas winner Kameko when the race was run on the all weather at Newcastle and once again champion jockey Oisin Murphy is in the saddle. Being by Lope De Vega he shouldn’t be inconvenienced by the prevailing soft ground and looks good each way value at around 6/1.

1 point each way 6/1 (Skybet) 1/5th odds 4 places

 

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26 minutes ago, ChasingDreams said:

2.05 Cheltenham

A very intriguing early season race for these four year olds. The one to beat here is ALLMANKIND, who was the best of these last year and rates an obvious contender. This gelding won his first three starts over hurdles, notably the Prestbury Juvenile Hurdle over course and distance and the Finale Juvenile Hurdle at Chepstow. He was too keen when last seen in this years Triumpth Hurdle and can learn from his big race credentials so there should be more to come. Two and a half lengths separated Allmankind and Botox Has here in November and despite giving 4lbs to his rival, it’s a fairly sizeable gap to bridge on terms. Likewise, Allmankind had another of these rivals, Nordano, a long way behind when storming to a dominant nine length win in the Grade 1 Finale Juvenile Hurdle at Chepstow over Christmas in very eye catching style, travelling smoothly throughout. This will be his last run against four year olds, so I expect him to use his experience wisely and run a very big race here. Dan Skelton has said he will take a good deal of beating and I second this with stable in scintillating form. Major player.

3.50 Cheltenham

Of many fascinating races on this high quality Cheltenham card is the Class 2 handicap chase over 3 miles 1 furlong and the horse that looks most interesting is Dan Skelton’s COBRA DE MAI. This impressive 8 year old offers a lot of value at the prices, having been consistent at this track over the years, not least when staying on sixth in the Ultima Handicap Chase at the festival this year, which is about the best form on offer. He made his seasonal return at Fontwell where he looked like he needed the runaround and he should now be primed for this, being 4lb lower than his sixth in the Ultima. Stable are flying at the minute and so he’s hard to ignore. Interesting.

2.55 Doncaster

Aidan O'Brien has a terrific record in this race, winning it twice in the last three years and nine times in total. His leading contender WEMBLEY has been very consistent throughout his career so far, winning once and placing five times. This Galileo colt got off the mark in terrific style during the summer at Roscommon and it looks as though this colt thrives on soft ground. He also has solid form on good ground, running very well finishing second behind Thunder Moon in the Group One National Stakes at the Curragh. That set him up tremendously well for a primed run in the Dewhurst Stakes at Newmarket when a close second to stablemate St Mark's Basilica staying on well making headway approaching final furlong after being at the rear for the majority of the race. His two recent Group 1 runner up finishes offer the best form heading into what looks to be a weak renewal of the race this year and he’s the one to beat.

Excellent analysis. I agree with your selection with Wembley, should be well up to winning this race. One Ruler not to be taken lightly however for Buick and Appleby.

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Highest value race tomorrow is the Group 1 Futurity stakes at Doncaster at 2.55, over a mile for 2 year olds. I have looked at all class 1 2 year old races over 6 to 8 furlongs during September and October to calculate the most influential factors. There have been 115 such races over the last 6 years. Key factors are :-

Days since last run < 19. AE = 1.26. 

Forecast odds > 9/2. AE = 1.12.

Course or distance winner. AE = 1.08.

Finished in top 5 last time out. AE = 1.05.

Horse bred in Ireland. AE = 1.04.

Draw > 4. AE = 1.08.

Top 3 are :-

MEGALLAN 1.09 - 11/1 BET365. This passes all the criteria apart from the fact that it was bred in the UK.

ONE RULER 1.07 - 4/1 BET VICTOR

BARADAR 1.07 - 20/1 BET365

There are 3 other races on Saturday that fit these criteria.

DONCASTER 1.45

INTRUSIVE 1.05 - 50/1 BET365

SHARK TWO ONE 1.05 - 8/1 BET365

NEWBURY 3.00

SETARHE 1.04 - 11/2 BET VICTOR

NEWBURY 3.35

NASTASE 1.06 - 14/1 BET365

ALBADRI 1.03 - 33/1 BET365

 

 

 

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Chelmsford 8.15, a class 6 handicap over 10 furlongs. There have been 115 class 6 handicaps over 10 - 12 furlongs at Chelmsford over the last 6 years. Key factors are :-

Days since last run < 15. AE = 1.26.

Forecast odds < 6/1. AE = 1.22.

Finished in top 4 last time. AE = 1.20.

Weight > 8st 12lbs. AE = 1.08.

Draw < 3. AE = 1.27.

Top 2 are :-

BAD ATTITUDE 1.14 - 2/1 BET365. This horse passes all the criteria apart from the draw.

BEAT THE BREEZE 1.06 - 13/2 BET365.

The same conditions apply to the 7.45.

JEN'S LAD 1.06 - 11/4 BET365

FALSE ID 1.04 - 16/1 BET365

 

 

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To be or not to be?

 

Pertemps Network Handicap Hurdle (Qualifier) 3.15 Cheltenham

Six places are available for EW betting on this wide-open Handicap at Cheltenham today. That is reason enough for me to get involved.

Dan Skelton trains I’d Better Go Now, this rapidly improving seven-year-old won extremely easily last time out at Perth beating Jack Devine. He has gone up 8Ib for that win and is still 1Ib out of the handicap today. However, his trainer is not concerned as Harry Skelton will do 10st and the horse will like the track.

Honest Vic was 5th at the festival in the Coral Cup to Dame de Compagnie on his last outing. He has been crying out for this 3mile trip and his performance today will decide if he sticks to hurdles or goes chasing.

Neville’s Cross was a highly impressive winner at Hereford last winning by over 20 lengths from Dadsintrouble in a Class 3 event. Tom Lacey’s charge is to be ridden by Robbie Power today. Robbie has come over to UK this season to ride for Colin Tizzard but is worth watching when he takes a booking for another stable. He has a 25% strike rate for Tom Lacey and won on Galvin yesterday for Gordon Elliott.

Top weight is last years winner Tobefair. Last year he won off 149, this year he is set to carry 152 minus the 5Ib claim of leading conditional Jack Tudor. This means in effect he has less weight than last year. The horse has won twice at Cheltenham loves the 3mile test.

Kansas City Chief will give a good account he should take the field along for a long way in this the first of eight qualifiers for the Pertemps Final at the Cheltenham festival. Expect a solid display at big price from Kansas City Chief and her inexperienced rider Victoria Malzard.

 My recommendation is an ew bet on Tobefair who has course, distance, weight and the class to win this event.

Tobefair 6/1 six places at Skybet

 

Price correct at time of submission

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Wembley winter favourite for 2000 Guineas?

 

Vertem Futurity Trophy Stakes  Group 1   14.55 Doncaster  1m

The winner of this race has won the 2000 Guineas for the last three years. Saxon Warrior, Magna Grecia and Kameko all won this then on their next outing were successful in the Newmarket Classic.

The favourite for this year’s race is the Aidan O’Brien trained colt Wembley whose form looks cast-iron. Last time out he was second in the Dewhurst to his stable mate St Mark’s Basilica. This son of Galileo beat his National Stake conqueror Thunder Moon into third place. He will stay the 1mile trip today and has been very strongly supported.

Main danger is One Ruler a very impressive winner of the Group 3 Autumn Stakes at Newmarket over a mile on a Good/Soft surface. His run prior was slightly disappointing being beaten in a listed contest by New Mandate at this venue. However New Mandate backed this form up by winning the Group 2 Royal Lodge at Doncaster.

On a line through New Mandate you could make a tenuous case for Cobh but a bigger threat must come from the champion jockey ridden King Vega this twice raced son of Lope de Vega was second last time out in the Group 2 Solario Stakes at Sandown. He will know more about what is required today and should run well.

Megallan was beaten by One Ruler at Newmarket last time and the Appleby charge should confirm the form.

State of Rest trained by Joseph O’Brien was third to Chindit last time of 7furlongs and he may not be good enough. The final Irish trained runner is the Jim Bolger’s Mac Swiney. He finished eighth behind Thunder Moon and Wembley in the National Stakes at the Curragh and I cannot see him beating Wembley today.

 

Wembley 6/4 Skybet, Hills, Betfair and Paddy Power

 

Edited by Arkle64
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Natural History is progressive!

 

Pravha Stakes (St Simon)             Group 3 16.10  Newbury       1m 4f

 

The Pravha Stakes formerly known as the St Simon stakes has been won by some notable horses in the past including the five times winner of the Jockey Club Cup, Further Flight. This year’s renewal is a highly competitive affair and a difficult puzzle to solve.

The likely favourite is the Richard Hannon trained globetrotter Raymond Tusk. This son of High Chaparral has not run since finishing 4th of 5 to Rainbow Dreamer in a minor event at Wolverhampton in January. He could return to form but given his lengthy absence, he is passed over.

Euchan Glen has had a good season. The Jim Goldie Scottish trained seven-year-old won the Old Newton Cup at Haydock in September and won the Group 3 Cumberland Lodge Stakes at York earlier this month. He picks up a 3Ib penalty today for that success. That penalty might just be 3Ib too much. 

 Andrew Balding is doubly represented in this with both Natural History and Alounak, there is truly little between them. Alounak, if, he could return to the form of his second to Fanny Logan in the Group 2 Hardwicke Stakes at Royal Ascot would take all the beating but his last run when last of six in a listed event at Windsor was very poor. Natural History has won his last two handicaps in good style and he can manage this step up in class today. He won at Chester over 12.4f then followed up in good style at Goodwood in heavy ground beating Hyanna by 3lengths.

 

Natural History 7/1 Bet365 and Hills  is my choice today to lead home Euchan Glen in a very trappy contest

 Price correct at time  of submission

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There are a couple of decent class 2 handicaps at Doncaster over 10 and 12 furlongs. There have been 126 such races over the last 6 years. Key factors are :-

Draw = 1. AE = 1.59. A very strong statistic with a strike rate of 21%.

Weight < 9st 1lb. AE = 1.15. As the going becomes heavier towards the end of the season then higher weights struggle.

Horse bred in UK. AE = 1.13. I don't have a great deal of knowledge of breeding but the country of breeding is quite influential in some instances. I suspect it is not used by many people in the selection process so it may provide a betting edge.

Age = 3 or 4. AE = 1.10. As the season progresses the younger horses tend to mature and perform better.

Forecast odds > 7/2. Again as the season progresses the weather and going becomes more variable and form becomes less reliable which impacts on the profitability of favourites.

Top rated in the 1.10 is CEPHEUS 1.15 - 13/2 BET365. This horse passes all the criteria apart from the weight, although it is heavily influenced by being drawn 1.

There are 3 joint 2nd with a rating of 1.08.

ICONIC CHOICE 9/1 BET365

FISHABLE 4/1 BET365

TULIP FIELDS 9/1 BET365

In the 2.20 the top rated is ISHVARA 1.08 - 8/1 BET365. This horse passes all the criteria apart from the draw.

Rated 2nd is ABEL HANDY 1.05- 22/1 BET365. This horse is drawn 1 but is a 5yo bred in Ireland.

 

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All prices Bet365:
 

1.10 Doncaster - 1pt e/w Dash of Spice @ 11/1

Was off a higher mark than this a few years ago and took a couple of runs to get going after two years off the track. Had excuses over 1m6f and then was too close to a hot pace behind Laafy at Ascot recently. Put in a poor run last time but is the type to bounce back and conditions suit so can see a good run today.

2.05 Cheltenham - 1pt e/w Botox Has @ 13/2

Wasn't far behind Allmankind when they met here last season and there looks quite a lot of pace in here which can suit Botox Has who stays strongly and will relish a test today. Has form up there with the best here and at 13/2, so long as he's fit enough, really should make the frame and threaten the win.

3.15 Cheltenham - 1pt e/w Minella Warrior @ 22/1

Hasn't worked out for him over fences - he's not the best jumper, quite slow and uses energy to get over his flights and I think it's the right move bringing him back to hurdles. Was in good form in staying hurdle races when last running in this sphere and it wouldn't surprise me to see a big improvement now with a stamina test to suit. 

3.35 Newbury - 1pt e/w Percy's Lad @ 14/1

Was impressive on debut given Eve Johnson-Haughton's runners typically come on plenty and there's substance to both that form and its win in a muddling affair last time, doing well to win from two solid yardsticks. Soft ground shouldn't inconvenience and a better gallop to aim at here (stays further) can see a big run. 

3.50 Cheltenham - 1pt win West Approach @ 7/1

Often saves his best for Cheltenham and also has a good record fresh which bodes well for today's reappearance. Had an off day when last seen, never really travelling, but is the type to bounce back with conditions to suit having been freshened up and has been rated higher in the past.

4.05 Doncaster - 1pt e/w Firmament @ 16/1

Looks a big price to me as a flat track suits and is only a pound higher than when winning at York earlier in the season. Has been running okay lately but over a mile when 7f is his trip and the drop back to this distance today will definitely help. Can see him running his race and getting involved at the finish at a big price.

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46 minutes ago, Bathtime For Rupert said:

All prices Bet365:
 

1.10 Doncaster - 1pt e/w Dash of Spice @ 11/1

Was off a higher mark than this a few years ago and took a couple of runs to get going after two years off the track. Had excuses over 1m6f and then was too close to a hot pace behind Laafy at Ascot recently. Put in a poor run last time but is the type to bounce back and conditions suit so can see a good run today.

2.05 Cheltenham - 1pt e/w Botox Has @ 13/2

Wasn't far behind Allmankind when they met here last season and there looks quite a lot of pace in here which can suit Botox Has who stays strongly and will relish a test today. Has form up there with the best here and at 13/2, so long as he's fit enough, really should make the frame and threaten the win.

3.15 Cheltenham - 1pt e/w Minella Warrior @ 22/1

Hasn't worked out for him over fences - he's not the best jumper, quite slow and uses energy to get over his flights and I think it's the right move bringing him back to hurdles. Was in good form in staying hurdle races when last running in this sphere and it wouldn't surprise me to see a big improvement now with a stamina test to suit. 

3.35 Newbury - 1pt e/w Percy's Lad @ 14/1

Was impressive on debut given Eve Johnson-Haughton's runners typically come on plenty and there's substance to both that form and its win in a muddling affair last time, doing well to win from two solid yardsticks. Soft ground shouldn't inconvenience and a better gallop to aim at here (stays further) can see a big run. 

3.50 Cheltenham - 1pt win West Approach @ 7/1

Often saves his best for Cheltenham and also has a good record fresh which bodes well for today's reappearance. Had an off day when last seen, never really travelling, but is the type to bounce back with conditions to suit having been freshened up and has been rated higher in the past.

4.05 Doncaster - 1pt e/w Firmament @ 16/1

Looks a big price to me as a flat track suits and is only a pound higher than when winning at York earlier in the season. Has been running okay lately but over a mile when 7f is his trip and the drop back to this distance today will definitely help. Can see him running his race and getting involved at the finish at a big price.

Many thanks for your analysis; not going for RIght Action in the 4.40 at Donny this time?

 

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