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Racing chat -sunday 11th oct (irish cesarewitch)


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It is the Cranbourne Cup tomorrow morning at 6.50 and I think it is worth backing a couple at big prices in a competitive race. I am surprised Future Score is 20/1 with Bet365. I thought he ran really well 1st up and stepping up to this trip is ideal. He has an e/w chance as does Aristia who won the VRC Oaks a couple of years ago. She has some decent form at a higher level than this and I think 2000m will suit better than the shorter trips she has been running over. Last time she ran well enough in a G2 over 1600m and I like the 3rd the time before. She is a 16/1 chance. Plein Ciel and Polly Grey are consistent but find winning hard. Shot Of Irish would prefer cut in the ground whilst last year's winner Dr Drill was lame last time and is capable of bouncing back.
 
Future Score @ 20/1 win & 4/1 place with Bet365
Aristia @ 16/1 win & 100/30 place with Bet365
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3.40 Velka Pardubice

The Czech Grand National although possibly the world's greatest Cross country chase with the Infamous and terrifying Taxis fence. 

Sottovento is the main selection with the 2017 winning jockey Jan Krotochvil aboard and trained by the legendary Josef Vana snr (who has won the race numerous times as both jockey and trainer). 7/1 e/w

 

Also interested in Tzigane Du Berlais if I can get 10/1 and Vandual could run into a place as it is a relentless plodder, however too short at moment to consider. 

 

 

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Auteuill 17.10

 

Gran Diose 28/1 ew 

V interested to note that Louisa Carberry has booked the excellent Clement Lefebvre (the 2nd leading jockey this season) for the ride. Possibly pitched  in too high at listed level on its 2nd start in Sept when it was pulled up. However its a fair trek to Paris from her yard in the N West, and even if today is just for the experience can't let this one go unbacked for a 0.5points ew. 

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No Trixie today; singles only

1.15 Gd Plattitude £1.20 win at 13/2
1.15 Gd Darksideof tarnside 70p win at 14/1

2.25 Gd Wholelotoffun £1.20 win at 8/1

2.55 Gd Afraid Of Nothing £1.20 win at 15/2

3.25 Gd Love Powerful 70p win at 16/1
3.25 Gd Pettochside 70p win at 16/1

4.25 Gd Its Good To Laugh £1.20 win at 13/2
4.25 Gd Kings Caper £1.20 win at 13/2

5.00 Gd George Of Hearts £1.20 win at 15/2
5.00 Gd Carp Kid £1 win at 9/1

Total stakes =  £10.30

===================================================================================================

Oddly enough this has to be the best £10.30 that I have ever wasted on horse racing.  I started out by looking for horses that had proven form on heavy going and ignored my top drawer jockeys.  I completely missed the winners of Oisin Murphy and the one winner for James Doyle and Tom Marquand.  Silly me.  No worries, from now on I will be looking for my top in form jockeys and apprentices on the flat, all weather and over the jumps despite racing conditions or anything else.  I even missed a punt on Bryony Frost over the jumps at 14/1.  I will be placing standard bets on what I consider to be the best value bet in the primary win market (first to 3rd/4th favourites) along with a possible outsider bet with an in form top/jockey or apprentice. This has to be the way ahead in the future

Anyway, singles lost £10.30 which means my balance is now £191.82 (Bank £400)

 

   

 

 

 

 

Edited by The Equaliser
Results Update
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Good run from Al Dancer there. Stayed on strongly at his first attempt at that distance. Beat some decent horses in Tidal Flow and Mastertommytucker. Was under the impression that if the latter managed to not fall he’d win as he usually travels well and it’s only him falling that’s cost him a few more wins. Didn’t fall today but got outstayed by Al dancer. No doubt he’ll come on for the run. 

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