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Ok...

I have 4 (speculative) entries in 4 different comps as follows:

BMW - Jorge Campillo 80/1, 8 Shriners - Pat Perez 100/1, 8
KPMG - In Gee Chun - 66/1, 6

SAS - Bob Estes - 55/1, 6

4 e/w singles

6 e/w doubles

‘Pre-tournament start’ betting is always highly speculative of course, but small affordable stakes as in this case can have decent returns.

Ill keep a record of my bets for the next 10 weeks worth of competitions that I enter, whether it be ‘pre tournament start’ bets or after the cut etc. 

Cheers for now

 

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A week to forget from my pov!

2 of my 4 selections didn’t even make the cut, and the other 2 made no challenge.

I think this highlights the danger of ‘pre tournament start’ betting, where the biggest odds and the most places being available is clearly offset by not knowing how a player is going to perform in the actual competition.

I will deal with that in this coming weeks events with bets being placed after the completion of the 2nd round, accepting the fact that there will obviously be reduced odds and places. More on that during the week.

So far, for record/accountancy purposes I am 1 stake down ie

-1

cheers for now

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Golf betting, as with all sports betting, is guided by the ‘form’ book of course. The problem before a golf tournament starts though is we don’t know who is going to ‘show up’ to the party.

Often, as the last week demonstrated, the money was burned for many just 2 days into a tournament (well it was for me anyway).

So, I’ll be countering that this week by ignoring a players ‘form’ reputation and instead looking at a players ‘in play’ form within the current competition after 2 rounds have been completed. This way I’ll know who’s ‘turned up’ and who hasn’t.

It doesn’t guarantee a winner but  with a bit of thought regarding criteria to use at that stage to make a selection, I think will at least give more of a fighting chance of a profitable outcome.

We will see.

On that simple basis, I’ll post my bets after round 2.

Cheers for now

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No luck for me this week, which given how the total scores of the winner down to 10th for example generally fall within a small window of less than half a percent usually, should come as no real surprise, and indicates how tough it is to find winners.

I’ll continue with my approach nevertheless and just like everyone else I need a little bit of luck to find that elusive winner.

- 1

Cheers

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No selections for me just yet. I’ll wait until I see which players are looking to be competitive out of the 50 odd realistic possibilities first which for me will be after 2 rounds have been completed.

Anything before then is an extreme gamble in my book as results have clearly shown and I’m not keen personally on the scattergun approach with numerous selections being made, but good luck to those that are able to make a profit that way...after all, profit is the name of the game!

Cheers for now

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Would be great to have confidence in just one selection in such a big field. The way I see it it's like having the Grand National every week. I'd always pick a few for that, and sure you might lose a couple over the first few fences, but hopefully you'll get a good run for your money. 

Obviously your approach is more sensible, with potentially a better strike rate. But I find the odds and places on offer at the start are much more enticing. Sometimes after a couple of rounds you'll do well to get double figures and 4 places on someone that was 3 figures and 8 places at the start. 

Anyway, good luck for this week. Let's hope the gambling gods are on our side. 🤞🏻

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Everything you’ve said is correct, but big odds and lots of places unfortunately doesn’t count for much if you don’t get a run for your money, hence my own approach instead.

And yes...we definitely need the gods and any good luck charm you can think of if it helps us all to pick a winner now and again.

And good luck to you too mate...see you on the other side.

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Halfway stage and all to play for. The tournaments still look wide open to me with many possibilities.

Anyway my bets are now placed based mainly upon who seems to be ‘in form’ and ignoring a players reputation. The idea being that a placed single alone will return an overall profit.

Zozo - Justin Rose 50/1  4

Italian - Tapio Pukkanen 80/1  4

Drive on - Matilda Castren 40/1 3

3 e/w singles

3 e/w doubles

1 e/w treble

Cheers for now

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Another week slips by and another lost stake.

So, at present I’m 3 stakes down. It’s still early days with another 7 weeks worth of tournaments to go before I can really evaluate properly.

I will continue with my approach, but I’ll be making adjustments this coming week by halving my bet size and using 2 selections per tournament. This means that the overall stake/risk will remain the same, and returns will be naturally reduced, but the advantage will be that a wider net is used.
This will become clearer when I post my bets.
The objective for me and I guess for most punters is to find an acceptable level of consistency of positive returns that outweigh the losses. It’s a huge challenge of course...bookies would be out of business if enough succeeded in doing so, which suggests that very few have reached that point....I know that I certainly haven’t....yet!  haha

Anyway, enough for now

-1

Cheers

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Bets now placed in 3 tournaments.

Cyprus, Bermuda and Timbertech.

This week, I have opted for 2 selections per tournament with bet sizes adjusted to maintain my standard overall stake.

There are 2 groups of bets with each group comprising of 3 x e/w singles, 3 x e/w doubles 1 x e/w treble

D Horsey 50/1  4 pl

B Garnett 60/1 4 pl

B Quigley 66/1 3 pl

...............................

M Kawamura 100/1 4 pl

L Donald 50/1 4 pl

J Durant 80/1 3 pl
 

Cheers for now

 

 

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No returns this week, nonetheless I will continue with my approach.

As I’ve mentioned previously, the final score differential between the winner and the regular places in any tournament are tiny and usually no more than 0.5 % indicating just how difficult it is to land on a place let alone the winner.

Anyway, that’s all for now

-1

Cheers

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5th week ...ie halfway point now, but no positive returns as of yet 
and I’m currently down 4 stakes. Oddly though I’m content with my approach and still optimistic that I can make up ground in the weeks ahead.

Bets now placed in 2 tournaments, Houston and Cyprus.

2 groups of bets, 2 x ew singles, 1 x ew doubles

S Straka 40/1   5pl

A Wu 45/1   5 pl

................................

K Ventura 40/1   5 pl 

M Kinhult 28/1  5 pl

I’ll update Monday

Cheers

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I lost about half my stake this week, 0.47 to be exact with Straka sharing a place.

I made a schoolboy error with the Cyprus tournament with there being 2 cuts which would have affected my selection decision..I should have spotted that beforehand...no excuses, we live and learn!

With 5 weeks done, I’m halfway through.  There’s obviously nothing to shout about regarding my results so far, but as said before I hope to claw back losses in the weeks remaining applying my approach and I remain optimistic.

So as it stands at this stage

- 0.47 this week

- 4.47 overall

Cheers

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Almost the halfway point in the masters and my bets are now placed.  A wide open looking contest so far as I’m concerned and at least 20 still in with a fair chance of challenging for the trophy. A number of obvious candidates are there, but I’ve gone for 3 of the less obvious with good prices but also in contention as follows...5 places, 1/5th

Munoz 100/1 
Howell 200/1                                         
Wattananond 400/1

Cheers     

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Fair play to both D Johnson, deservedly proving why he’s world no 1, and to those that backed him.  
I didn’t and another stake lost...so moving on to next week.

Week 6 completed

-1 this week

-5.47 overall

Cheers

Edited by Apey
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Bets now placed in 3 tournaments.

RSM, Joburg and Pelican

I have opted for 2 selections per tournament with bet sizes adjusted to maintain my standard overall stake.

There are 2 groups of bets with each group comprising of 3 x e/w singles, 3 x e/w doubles 1 x e/w treble

C Tringale 40/1 5pl

R Wattel 100/1 4 pl

R Ree 100/1 3 pl

...............................

K Stanley 20/1 5 pl

Z Lombard 25/1 3 pl

A Buhai 66/1 3 pl
 

Cheers for now

 

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I lost 0.37 of my stake this week.

Could have been better....but we all say that of course.

7 weeks gone and 3 to go, after which I’ll be in a position to review my overall performance and tweak the approach to hopefully increase my yield.

Week 7

-0.37 this week

-5.84 overall

Cheers

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Bets now placed in 2 tournaments.

Dunhill and Andalucia

I have opted for 2 selections per tournament with bet sizes adjusted to maintain my standard overall stake.

There are 2 groups of bets with each group comprising of 2 x e/w singles, and an e/w double

C Basson 125/1 4 pl

L Colombotto 80/1 3 pl

...............................

O Wilson 80/1 4 pl

M Haddioui 125/1 3 pl


Cheers                                            

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I was in the shake this week...but lost.

As said before, there are super fine margins for success and failure in golf betting and those tiny margins can be frustrating when the gods are not on our side.

Moving on.... I have two more weeks to find that elusive winner.  
In the main, fancied players in the betting appear to have dominated tournaments in recent weeks which hasn’t lent itself to my particular approach. Nevertheless I’ll stick with it for now and re-assess/modify in a couple of weeks when I’ll have a truer picture of the situation and hence a better idea of where and how I need to tune the approach.

Week 8

-1 this week

-6.84 overall

Cheers

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Bets now placed in 4 tournaments this week.

Mayakoba, SA Open, Dubai, Volunteers

I don’t have time to assess as per my usual approach this week with other commitments in the way, so taking a very speculative flyer instead.

1 selection per tournament, 4 x e/w singles, 6 x e/w doubles, all are 5 places with 1/4 odds, with bet sizes adjusted to maintain my standard overall stake.
 

A Bhatia 275/1  

S Sharma 80/1

D Perrier 200/1

B Pagdanganan 60/1

Cheers

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Poor results for me this week...no real surprise though as I knew it was highly speculative when placing pre tournament start type bets.

9 weeks gone, 1 to go and then I’ll sit down and see where selection improvements can be made.

Week 9

-1 this week

-7.84 overall

Cheers

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Bets now placed in 2 tournaments.

DP Tour and US Women’s

I have opted for 2 selections per tournament with bet sizes adjusted to maintain my standard overall stake.

There are 2 groups of bets with each group comprising of 2 x e/w singles, and an e/w double

T Pieters  50/1   3 pl   1/4

A Buhai  100/1 4 pl   1/4

...............................

M Kaymer  40/1  3 pl   1/4

A Schmelzel  66/1   4pl   1/4

Cheers

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No good this week, and so the 10 weeks have now been completed, and very poor results overall.  I have one or two ideas to try to help improve my performance, and will implement them in the new year.

On that basis, there’s  no point in publishing any further bets that I’m taking or results until I am reasonably happy that I  am on the right track...hopefully sooner rather than later!

Week 10

-1 this week

-8.84 stakes overall

Cheers

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  • 1 month later...

Ok, back to posting my selections/bets.
My goal is to achieve a return (place or win) with greater consistency than previously, ie ideally some kind of return at least every 3 weeks.

I’ll post my selections for the next 4 weeks and re-assess at that point.

As previously, I will be making my selections once I see which players are up for it, which for me is usually after round 2 has finished. I have modified my selection criteria also, which will hopefully yield the improvements that I’m looking for.

Enough waffle..lets get on with it.

AT & T

Lewis  22/1  e/w 4 pl

McNealy 60/1 e/w 4 pl

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A good start for this series with McNealy placing at 60/1.
It won’t mean much though unless I can achieve reasonable consistency of returns as mentioned previously.

Week 1

2.44 stake returns this week

1.44 0verall  p/l stake returns

Edited by Apey
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Bets now placed in 2 tournaments.

Genesis and LECOM

I have opted for 3 selections per tournament with bet sizes adjusted to maintain my standard overall stake.

Bets comprise of e/w singles, and some e/w doublea.  4 pl  1/5

Speith 16/1

Clark  40/1   

Kokrak 18/1 
...............................

Every  22/1

Dou  40/1

Ramey  20/1

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Bets now placed in 4 tournaments.

WGC, P Rico, Gainbridge, Colguard

I have opted for 2 selections per tournament with bet sizes adjusted to maintain my standard overall stake in e/w singles and a selection of small bet multiples.  All are 4 places, 1/4 odds

Kisner  28/1   

Oosthuizen  33/1

................................

Glover  22/1

Potter  50/1  

................................

Olsen.  35/1.  

Larsen  100/1

................................

Mayfair. 80/1

Toms. 22/1

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