Jump to content
Announcements
** September Nap's Competition Result: 1st Boulder5111, 2nd Craig Bluenose, 3rd Barnsley Chop, 4th Zilzalian KO Cup: Bathtime For Rupert, Most Winners: Waggy**
**September Poker League Result : 1st Kevsul £75, 2nd Gemic £45, 3rd Barry John £30**
** Last Man Standing Result - Ivailobg/Cookro split 1st £125 / Larking22 1st Consolation Cup £50 **

Recommended Posts

Ok...

I have 4 (speculative) entries in 4 different comps as follows:

BMW - Jorge Campillo 80/1, 8 Shriners - Pat Perez 100/1, 8
KPMG - In Gee Chun - 66/1, 6

SAS - Bob Estes - 55/1, 6

4 e/w singles

6 e/w doubles

‘Pre-tournament start’ betting is always highly speculative of course, but small affordable stakes as in this case can have decent returns.

Ill keep a record of my bets for the next 10 weeks worth of competitions that I enter, whether it be ‘pre tournament start’ bets or after the cut etc. 

Cheers for now

 

Link to post
Share on other sites

A week to forget from my pov!

2 of my 4 selections didn’t even make the cut, and the other 2 made no challenge.

I think this highlights the danger of ‘pre tournament start’ betting, where the biggest odds and the most places being available is clearly offset by not knowing how a player is going to perform in the actual competition.

I will deal with that in this coming weeks events with bets being placed after the completion of the 2nd round, accepting the fact that there will obviously be reduced odds and places. More on that during the week.

So far, for record/accountancy purposes I am 1 stake down ie

-1

cheers for now

Link to post
Share on other sites

Golf betting, as with all sports betting, is guided by the ‘form’ book of course. The problem before a golf tournament starts though is we don’t know who is going to ‘show up’ to the party.

Often, as the last week demonstrated, the money was burned for many just 2 days into a tournament (well it was for me anyway).

So, I’ll be countering that this week by ignoring a players ‘form’ reputation and instead looking at a players ‘in play’ form within the current competition after 2 rounds have been completed. This way I’ll know who’s ‘turned up’ and who hasn’t.

It doesn’t guarantee a winner but  with a bit of thought regarding criteria to use at that stage to make a selection, I think will at least give more of a fighting chance of a profitable outcome.

We will see.

On that simple basis, I’ll post my bets after round 2.

Cheers for now

Link to post
Share on other sites

At the halfway stage for CJ and Scottish tournaments.

I’m looking to bet against the obvious.

CJ Cup - Fitzpatrick 33/1 4pl

Scottish- Chawrasia 200/1 4pl
 

2 e/w singles

1 e/w double

Cheers for now

Link to post
Share on other sites

No luck for me this week, which given how the total scores of the winner down to 10th for example generally fall within a small window of less than half a percent usually, should come as no real surprise, and indicates how tough it is to find winners.

I’ll continue with my approach nevertheless and just like everyone else I need a little bit of luck to find that elusive winner.

- 1

Cheers

Link to post
Share on other sites

No selections for me just yet. I’ll wait until I see which players are looking to be competitive out of the 50 odd realistic possibilities first which for me will be after 2 rounds have been completed.

Anything before then is an extreme gamble in my book as results have clearly shown and I’m not keen personally on the scattergun approach with numerous selections being made, but good luck to those that are able to make a profit that way...after all, profit is the name of the game!

Cheers for now

Link to post
Share on other sites

Would be great to have confidence in just one selection in such a big field. The way I see it it's like having the Grand National every week. I'd always pick a few for that, and sure you might lose a couple over the first few fences, but hopefully you'll get a good run for your money. 

Obviously your approach is more sensible, with potentially a better strike rate. But I find the odds and places on offer at the start are much more enticing. Sometimes after a couple of rounds you'll do well to get double figures and 4 places on someone that was 3 figures and 8 places at the start. 

Anyway, good luck for this week. Let's hope the gambling gods are on our side. 🤞🏻

Link to post
Share on other sites

Everything you’ve said is correct, but big odds and lots of places unfortunately doesn’t count for much if you don’t get a run for your money, hence my own approach instead.

And yes...we definitely need the gods and any good luck charm you can think of if it helps us all to pick a winner now and again.

And good luck to you too mate...see you on the other side.

Link to post
Share on other sites

Halfway stage and all to play for. The tournaments still look wide open to me with many possibilities.

Anyway my bets are now placed based mainly upon who seems to be ‘in form’ and ignoring a players reputation. The idea being that a placed single alone will return an overall profit.

Zozo - Justin Rose 50/1  4

Italian - Tapio Pukkanen 80/1  4

Drive on - Matilda Castren 40/1 3

3 e/w singles

3 e/w doubles

1 e/w treble

Cheers for now

Link to post
Share on other sites

Another week slips by and another lost stake.

So, at present I’m 3 stakes down. It’s still early days with another 7 weeks worth of tournaments to go before I can really evaluate properly.

I will continue with my approach, but I’ll be making adjustments this coming week by halving my bet size and using 2 selections per tournament. This means that the overall stake/risk will remain the same, and returns will be naturally reduced, but the advantage will be that a wider net is used.
This will become clearer when I post my bets.
The objective for me and I guess for most punters is to find an acceptable level of consistency of positive returns that outweigh the losses. It’s a huge challenge of course...bookies would be out of business if enough succeeded in doing so, which suggests that very few have reached that point....I know that I certainly haven’t....yet!  haha

Anyway, enough for now

-1

Cheers

Link to post
Share on other sites

Join the conversation

You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.
Note: Your post will require moderator approval before it will be visible.

Guest
Reply to this topic...

×   Pasted as rich text.   Paste as plain text instead

  Only 75 emoji are allowed.

×   Your link has been automatically embedded.   Display as a link instead

×   Your previous content has been restored.   Clear editor

×   You cannot paste images directly. Upload or insert images from URL.

×
×
  • Create New...