Does a horse going up in rating but staying in the same class matter?

[Mica98]

 

 

I will use an example of a horse in the 3:10 tomorrow at Nottingham- Lunar Jet

 

Tomorrow he is up 1lb going off at an OR of 81, in his last race he was 80

 

The weight he carried is 9st 8lb and will be the exact same tomorrow

 

i know 1lb rating is minimal as an example but even if it was 3 or 4lbs but he was still running in the same class how can this make a difference to the horse? I understand when they go up a rating and essentially promote themselves to a stronger class it’s going to be harder, but I can’t see how going up 1 or 2lbs in rating can have any negative effect on a horse remaining in the same class.

 

In his race tomorrow he is racing horses between 70 OR at worst and 85 OR at best

 

Whereas in his last race it was 79 OR at worst and 86 OR at best, so was actually a more competitive race than the one it’s in tomorrow maybe.

 

can anyone help explain why I may be incorrect on this and why it could possibly have a negative effect? I am trying to learn racing cards in more detail than just C&D, ground etc

 

thanks

[Trotter]

Sounds like you have a pretty good grasp of the position !

All I might say is that the horse has gone up 1lb for finishing second and was beaten 2 lengths

If you're just looking at the handicap mark you could say that he was 4 lbs too high to be able to win last time and now it's even harder because he might now be 5lbs too high to win

Again just looking at the handicap and not the other factors, like the ground, distance, etc ......... his last win was off 91 in May 2019 since when he's been up to 95 and then all the way down to 80 without winning for 15 races

To me that looks like a horse in long term decline and he might not win again until his handicap falls far enough to reflect his current ability ....... so obviously staying on the same mark or going back up again whilst he's not winning could be delaying the point at which his mark falls to a winning one

That's just looking at handicap mark ........ it could be that the trip, ground, yard form etc are perfect for him today and he'll win regardless of a few pounds here or there. And of course all the other horses might be even worse handicapped than him so he might win by default