Racing Chat - Sunday Oct 4th

[BillyHills]

Arc day which means pretty poor cards over here.

two handicaps of interest

330 Kelso

 

316 Uttoxeter

 

 

330 K: Simply Ned 7/1 bet365 1pt EW
316 U: Dagueneau 5/1 HIlls 2pts Win

1pt EW Double SP

 

[Villa Chris]

3.30 Kelso 

Cant split the pair so had a small nibble on both. 
 

Mcgroarty 13/2

Nuts We’ll 15/2

[BillyHills]

Aidan O'Brien and sons forced to withdraw all Longchamp runners on Sunday

 

https://www.racingpost.com/news/latest/all-obrien-family-horses-to-be-withdrawn-from-longchamp-on-sunday/453218

[Villa Chris]

1.50 Longchamp 

Fev Rover 11/4

Tipperary 2.38

Stamp Your Feet 11/4

[Bathtime For Rupert]

1.05 Uttoxeter - 1pt e/w Mayfair Spirit @ 9/1 Bet365

Decent flat racer who shapes as if he could be decent over hurdles. Rated in the 80s on the level, is race fit and in form so looks a healthy e/w prospect here.

1.50 Longchamp - 2pts win Thunder Beauty @ 6/1 Bet365

Looks very interesting here having won well on debut and then finishing well on good ground last time in hot company over 7f. Bred to do better over further and her sire relished soft ground so this test today promises to really suit. Big chance in my eyes.

3.05 Longchamp - 1pt e/w In Swoop @ 8/1 Bet365

Can't have either of the front two in the betting at the prices and I quite like the prospect of In Swoop here who finishes races off well and the prospect of a decent test here really ought to suit. Stayed on late for 2nd behind Mogul last time and would obviously have to improve on that but a stronger gallop and more testing ground should play to his strengths and has sound claims.

[Zilzalian]

42 minutes ago, BillyHills said:

Aidan O'Brien and sons forced to withdraw all Longchamp runners on Sunday

 

https://www.racingpost.com/news/latest/all-obrien-family-horses-to-be-withdrawn-from-longchamp-on-sunday/453218

You would think an operation of that size and wealth would have their own lab and test feed before its used.

 

[PercyP]

1 hour ago, Bathtime For Rupert said:

1.05 Uttoxeter - 1pt e/w Mayfair Spirit @ 9/1 Bet365

Decent flat racer who shapes as if he could be decent over hurdles. Rated in the 80s on the level, is race fit and in form so looks a healthy e/w prospect here.

1.50 Longchamp - 2pts win Thunder Beauty @ 6/1 Bet365

Looks very interesting here having won well on debut and then finishing well on good ground last time in hot company over 7f. Bred to do better over further and her sire relished soft ground so this test today promises to really suit. Big chance in my eyes.

3.05 Longchamp - 1pt e/w In Swoop @ 8/1 Bet365

Can't have either of the front two in the betting at the prices and I quite like the prospect of In Swoop here who finishes races off well and the prospect of a decent test here really ought to suit. Stayed on late for 2nd behind Mogul last time and would obviously have to improve on that but a stronger gallop and more testing ground should play to his strengths and has sound claims.

I really enjoy reading your write ups. You always convince me these horses will run well and I often use your selections in my bets. Keep up the good work.

[The Equaliser]

One Trixie today

1.40 Uttx Glencar at 10/3 (30p win at 3/1 £1.20)
2.30 Kel Stay Humble (£1 win at 11/4 = £3.75)
3.16 Uttx Daguenau (50p win at 4/1 = £2.50)

One £1 win trixie at £1 = £4 v poss return of £118.67

Other bets

3.05 Longchamp Persian King £1 win at 16/1

1.05 Uttx Makka Pakka £1.20 at 9/1 = £12
1.05 Uttx Falvour 60p win at 5/4 = £1.35

1.40 Uttx Llancillo Lad 70p win at 14/1 = £10.50

2.16 Uttx Ever So Cool 30p win at 10/3 = £1.30
2.16 Uttx Officer Drivel 45p win at 20/1 = £9.45

3.16 Uttx Sirobbie £1.20 at 7/1 = £9.60

3.46 Uttx Statuaro 50p win at 4/1 = £2.50
3.46 Uttx Wencelous £1.20 at 7/1 = £9.60

4.16 Uttx Kannapoli 70p win at 9/1 = £7.00

2.00 Kel Dancewiththewind £1 win at 7/2 = £4.50

2.30 Kel Stay Humble £1 win at 11/4 = £3.75

3.30 Kel Simply Ned £1 win at 8/1 = £9

Multiples = £4

Singles = £12.65

Trying something a bit different here.  Covering bets at longer prices with reduced bets on the favourites.  I will see how this goes and if necessary split the profit equally subsequently if this fails

===================================================================================================

Two winners but not in the Trixie.  Lost  £4 and the balance c/fwd is now £642.69 (Bank £800)

Two winners paid £4.50 and £10.20 = £14.70 v £12.65 stakes so a £2.05 profit.  The balance is mow £212.22 (£400 Bank)

 

 

 

Edited October 5, 2020 by The Equaliser
Results Update

[kroni]

fancy some e-w shots at longchamp with the testing conditions

Libertine @ 10/1 - Longchamp 13:15

Tiger Tanaka @ 13/2 - Longchamp 13:50

Kings Harlequin @ 6/1 - Longchamp 13:50

In Swoop @ 8/1 - Longchamp 15:05

Sottsass @ 13/2 - Longchamp 15:05

Ambition @ 14/1 - Longchamp 15:50

Wooded @ 10/1 - Longchamp 16:25

Irska @ 33/1 - Longchamp 16:55

 

[Villa Chris]

20 hours ago, Villa Chris said:

3.30 Kelso 

Cant split the pair so had a small nibble on both. 
 

Mcgroarty 13/2 Lost

Nuts We’ll 15/2 Won

 

7 hours ago, Villa Chris said:

1.50 Longchamp 

Fev Rover 11/4 Lost

Tipperary 2.38

Stamp Your Feet 11/4 lost

Would have showed 12 points profit but rule 4 applied to the winning race, so broke even. 

[Bathtime For Rupert]

On 10/4/2020 at 11:19 AM, PercyP said:

I really enjoy reading your write ups. You always convince me these horses will run well and I often use your selections in my bets. Keep up the good work.

Thanks! Not so good recently mind - quite a few hitting the crossbar but it happens.