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Racing Chat - Thursday Oct 1st


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Hey, mostly a lurker but figured i'd get involved a bit this month. Mostly focus on AW myself, couple for today

730pm Chelmsford

Smoke on the water 1 pt win 17/2 b365 - Showed some promise in novice events and better than bare result on handicap debut over 6f at Newcastle in Feb (having to switch and finishing strongly) Well backed next time out returning from over 220days off (over 7f in refitted tongue tie) raced keenly and was competitive for a long time before fading. Eased 2lbs and back to 6f can come on for that run. 

Come on girl 1 pt e/w 33/1 b365 - Looks a solid e/w bet at long odds, out of form last few runs (twice at wolv at once on firm over 5.5f) but is unbeaten in two starts over 6f polytrack including latest off just 1lbs lower than today and makes debut for Mick Appleby, a yard that does well with horses like this. Handy draw in 2.

800pm Chelmsford

Independence day 1pt e/w 7/1 PaddyPower - Normally I am on the other side of this one, given its strike rate I am often baffled it continues to go off at low odds inc 2/3 of its last starts at Wolverhampton (a track its never done anything at, and last time in refitted headgear which its never even placed while wearing) thats left off here and back to Chelmsford (the sit of his last win albeit over 5f in 2018) recent efforts over 6f have been some of his better ones, eased another 1lbs and his last run over 6f polytrack was October 2019 where he was a solid 1L 2nd off 3lbs higher than today. Looks solid e/w value from a handy draw in a pretty shallow race. 

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305 Salisbury 

Triggered 401 

A sure welcome  399

May remain   394 

Delegate this lord 394 

Very tricky race but I love these tough puzzles as it shows me what's working and what's not ....ew bets as it's tough race but top 2 are a little clear so they are the selections 

Triggered 5pts ew 7/1 willh

A sure welcome 5pts ew 25/1 willh 

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One small Trixie so far today at Warwick

1.10 War Zoffee 11/4 (put in £2 at 4.6= £7.06)
1.45 War Miss Honey Ryder 8/1 (£1.20 at 15/2= £10)
2.55 War Dariya 11/2 (£2 at 11/2 = £13)

One 50p win Trixie = £2 v poss return of £167.98

Other bets

1.45 War Calum Gilhooley £2 win at 4/1 = £10
1.45 War Vancouver 70p win at 16/1 = £11.90

2.20 War Nightfly £1.20 win at 6/1 = £8.40

2.55 war Dariya £2 win at 11/2 = £13.00
2.55 War Pink Sheets £1 win at 5/2 = £3.50 (ins bet)

3.30 War Rock The House £1.20 at 8/1 = £10.80
3.30 War Captain Morgs £1 at 5/4 = £2.25 (Ins bet)

Multiple so far = £2.00

Singles so far = £14.30

= £16.30 in total so far

I have a busy day today but sincerely hope that I can get back in time for some Chelmsford selections.  Fascinating day for the top jocks and lots to choose from

 

 

 

Edited by The Equaliser
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12.10 Warwick - 1pt e/w Some Might Say @ 10/1 Bet365

Ready winner of a bumper two starts back with the form working out and had clear excuses on hurdling debut. He was extremely novicey and pulled like a train throughout in a decent race. This easier test and sharper track will suit and his jumping did improve as the race went on that day so if racing more conservatively and putting his experience to good use, can go very close.

12.20 Salisbury - 1pt e/w Aleas @ 12/1 Bet365

The two with form towards the head of the market are respected but neither look unbeatable on the evidence of their debuts and I quite like the profile of Aleas. Bred to be useful and this one's dam won her first two starts as a 2 year old including a Group 3 and Aleas's only half sibling as also decent at 2. Any give in the ground won't inconvenience and Ralph Beckett's can go well first time out with the yard in form, so looks an interesting newcomer. 

2.08 Ffos Las - 1pt e/w Caviciana @ 8/1 Bet365

Favourite may well win again but I wouldn't be getting involved turning out again so quickly after a mammoth absence. Caviciana is relatively lightly raced and having been too keen last year appears to have learned to settle with experience and has run well the last twice over 2m4f. Is bred to stay however so the extra half mile here ought to suit so if conserving energy upped in trip, should go close.

2.43 Ffos Las - 2pts win Heavey @ 5/1 Bet365

Has been in really good form over hurdles but has also shaped as if he'd make a better chaser and had a chance when being brought down on his only previous start over fences. The favourite here won in a small field and also jumped right which he wouldn't want to do here and the second favourite returns after an absence so Heavey looks the solid option here. 

2.55 Warwick - 1pt e/w Givepeaceachance @ 12/1 Bet365

More unexposed than most having only run twice over hurdles and respectably on both occasions. Stays well on the flat so a steadily run race over 2 miles didn't suit last time when getting outpaced but wasn't beaten far and ought to enjoy this a bit more with a stronger gallop likely in a handicap and with the hood on first time.

3.05 Salisbury - 1pt e/w With Respect @ 9/1 Bet365

I'm hoping the positive market signals continue this afternoon for this one as he ran flat when weak in the betting at Ayr last time, albeit from a poor position. Was impressive on debut on his only previous effort over 6f and had excuses in a hot novice race at Lingfield and then when not staying a mile. Will need a good pace or a more prominent sit today back at this trip but still lightly raced and can hopefully bounce back under these conditions.

4.30 Ffos Las - 1pt e/w Giga White @ 20/1 Bet365

Have to take this one with a pinch of salt as is definitely a character but also has ability and shaped as if the return to hurdles would help when running over fences. Was badly hampered early on last time and that seemed to knock its confidence which resulted in a refusal at the second. Hopefully can get into the race today and if so, 20/1 could look overpriced. 

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5 hours ago, richard-westwood said:

305 Salisbury 

Triggered 401 

A sure welcome  399

May remain   394 

Delegate this lord 394 

Very tricky race but I love these tough puzzles as it shows me what's working and what's not ....ew bets as it's tough race but top 2 are a little clear so they are the selections 

Triggered 5pts ew 7/1 willh

A sure welcome 5pts ew 25/1 willh 

Triggered non runner ...replace with may remain 

Edited by richard-westwood
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2 hours ago, Trotter said:

To be fair he has contested the finding saying that he has never taken cocaine in his life and will fight to clear his name

Let's see what happens

 

They took a sample of hair and it came back negative, but only he knows I suppose. I noticed another jockey the other day tested positive for the same drug. 

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