Racing Chat - Wednesday Sept 30th

[BillyHills]

Last day of the month!!

Looking at two Class 3 handicaps

630 Kem

1pt River Dawn 11/2 bet365
1pt The Gill Brothers 9/2 Hills

 

255 Notts

1pt Yimou 11/2 bet365
1pt Clareyblue 13/2 Hills

 

 

[Villa Chris]

Huntington 1.30 

Absolute Jaffa 2/1

Huntington 3.45 

Its A Freebie 7/2

[richard-westwood]

405 not

Dapper man  337 

Helvetian   335 

Bellevarde   330 

Tricky race ....dapperman could be anything ...was probably flattered by his 9 length win but still could be on the upgrade ....helvetian was thrown in too high last time ....this is much easier and good price 

Dapper man 10pt win 4/1 sky

Helvetian 10pt win 12/1 willh 

 

[Bathtime For Rupert]

1.00 Huntingdon - 0.5pts e/w Little Tipsy @ 50/1 Bet365

Big price but in a fairly open race could be worth a small tickle on hurdling debut for a yard in form. Only had one run on the level when always outpaced over 7f in a novice event but it wasn't a bad race at all with two horses now rated in the 90s beaten 8 lengths themselves and Little Tipsy is a full sibling to Act of Valour, a 1m4f winner on the flat and rated 135 over hurdles. That gives some hope that there could be more to offer and whilst has plenty to prove, will have a go at the price.

1.40 Bangor - 1pt e/w Reassurance @ 12/1 Hills

Is a fair flat racer who shaped very encouragingly on hurdling debut when staying on for third, not beaten far. Was always likely to find that test a bit sharp given he stays 2 miles strongly on the flat so the extra few furlongs here will certainly help, as should that initial experience over hurdles. Looks a live threat to all here. 

1.45 Nottingham - 2pts win Forever Grateful @ 11/2 Bet365

The Johnson-Houghton favourite ought to come on plenty for the debut but on a line through Light Refrain, Forever Grateful looks to hold a very big chance here. Excusing his effort in a hot group race at Sandown, has run two good races at Doncaster and Newcastle - shaping as if going to back out of things on both occasions before rallying well at the line and the extra furlong looks sure to suit on that evidence. Should go well.

2.10 Bangor - 1pt e/w Sir Tivo @ 16/1 Bet365

The money appears to be down for Count Jurado today but quite simply at the prices I have to be with Sir Tivo. The last time both of these horses ran was in the same race and Sir Tivo looked sure to finish ahead of Count Jurado when brought down 3 out so with one 5/2 and one 16/1 in here, I'm with the latter. Should improve the experience of a chasing debut too and ran well over hurdles two starts back so looks in with a chance around a track that should suit.

2.35 Huntington - 2pts win Snowbird @ 11/2 Bet365

Lightly raced type who is a full sibling to a much superior hurdler and there could be more to come. Runs this year came after a mammoth absence and shaped better last time when jumping well and racing handy for a long way at Fontwell. Shaped as if this 2f shorter trip at an easier venue would suit and ought to improve again fitness wise. This isn't strong and there's been some market support already.

3.30 Nottingham - 1pt e/w Rosa Gold @ 16/1 Bet365

Clearly this is tougher and maybe she's starting to look handicapped out of it after a great run but was essentially massively hiked up the weights last time with no claimer on board and still ran okay over a trip that might have been too far. 5lbs is taken off her back today which does help, as does the return to 1m2f, so whilst perhaps the handicapper has her measure now, she's still a big price given the progression she showed until last time out.

4.40 Nottingham - 1pt e/w Red Derek @ 18/1 Bet365

Has done most of his racing over shorter so I was slightly reticent to back him over 1m6f on soft two starts back but in reality he went very well behind a horse who went well again next time out and it shouldn't be a great surprise as this one is very stoutly bred. His dam was a 2 mile winner and there's plenty of stamina on his sire's side too so looks well worth a go at this trip. Did as well as could be expected last time in a maiden off unfavourable terms over shorter and this looks more suitable now. Looks a big e/w price given some reservations over other rivals.

[The Equaliser]

Too many Jockeys to look at on the flat today with so many runners.  Have concentrated on the Jumps; though may come back later

One trixie at £1 = £4 v £84.16

2.45 Bang Earl Of Harrow 2/1
3.45 Hunt The Distant Lady 5/2
4.30 Bang Ferrobin 10/3

Other bets:

3.10 Hunt Stonemadforspeed (DJ) £1.20 win at 7/1 = £9.60

4.20 Hunt Stitched £2 win at 8.6 = £14.90

1.40 Bang Get In Robin £1.20 win at 4/1 = £6.00

2.45 Bang Presentandcounting £1.20 win at 9/2 = £6.60

3.20 Bang Minnela Tara £1.20 at 9/2 = £6.60

3.55 Bang Thomas shelby £1.20 win at 9/2 = £6.60
3.55 Bang Packetto the rafters £1.20 win at 13/2 = £9.00

5.00 Bang Chatelier £1.20 win at 6/1 = £8.40

= £4 multiples

=  £10.40 singles

= Total £14.40

=========================================================================================================

I had to have a little chuckle to myself on discovering that I was just as good at picking losers over the jumps as I am at picking losers on the flat ?

Anyway, only one winner today and that wasn't even in my Trixie.

This means that I lost £4 on the multiples and so the balance is now £654.69 (Bank £800)

The winning single paid £6.60 hence after deducting £10.40 the loss was £3.80.  My singles balance is now £235.02 (Bank £400)

I notice that a lot of the top jockeys have been sent to Chelmsford tomorrow instead of Salisbury so that should be interesting

 

 

 

Edited September 30, 2020 by The Equaliser
Results Update

[Villa Chris]

Frustrating day. Absolute Jaffa was looking like the winner. Travelling and jumping well, but was pulled up for whatever reason. Rider obviously felt something weren’t right. Then It’s A Freebie beaten by a neck. Better luck tomorrow hopefully.