bawsak Posted September 26, 2020 Share Posted September 26, 2020 (edited) I have created a system to rate NFL teams. Not sure if it’s any good but gonna experiment using it for bets. Please don’t follow it for bets at the moment as I haven’t any evidence it works. More of a running experiment. We will see how it goes Here as some preseason ratings I created using some numerical formulas based on PFF grading for position groups. Blue numbers are defensive grades, pink is offence and yellow overall (with offence double weighted). Position grades have been weighted for importance in the following order: QB, WR, DB, OL/DL, LB, TE, RB. I haven’t included FBs or special team players in my grading. Also note these are preseason gradings and I haven’t made any adjustments yet for wk 1&2 performances Edited September 26, 2020 by bawsak S for Secondary replaced with DB for Defensive Backs in the key to avoid confusion Sportwetten 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bawsak Posted September 26, 2020 Author Share Posted September 26, 2020 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bawsak Posted September 26, 2020 Author Share Posted September 26, 2020 Week 3 pick Cincinnati 2/1 v Philadelphia Cincinnati (+4.5) 1/1 v Philadelphia Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bawsak Posted September 26, 2020 Author Share Posted September 26, 2020 (edited) 21 hours ago, bawsak said: Week 3 pick Cincinnati 2/1 v Philadelphia Cincinnati (+4.5) 1/1 v Philadelphia Given poor play of Wentz at back end of season has continued Philadelphia’s offence probably now ranks lower. Couple this with them already being quite close with the system ratings, Cinci at 2/1 seems a pick. Edited September 27, 2020 by bawsak Grammar Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vikki37 Posted September 26, 2020 Share Posted September 26, 2020 Welcome to the forum and good luck with your system. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bawsak Posted September 26, 2020 Author Share Posted September 26, 2020 3 hours ago, vikki37 said: Welcome to the forum and good luck with your system. Thanks vikki ?? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bawsak Posted October 3, 2020 Author Share Posted October 3, 2020 On 9/26/2020 at 12:48 PM, bawsak said: Week 3 pick Cincinnati 2/1 v Philadelphia Cincinnati (+4.5) 1/1 v Philadelphia Push on the result +1 on the spread Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bawsak Posted October 3, 2020 Author Share Posted October 3, 2020 I have updated a few areas. New Orleans have fallen off a cliff with Brees form and Thomas injury. OLine still good but rest of offence is average. I haven’t done all teams so won’t post revised grades but they dip to 74. Detroit also dip slightly to 69 but at home should still be a pickem game so decent pick to win at 6/4. I don’t really fancy Detroit on the spread at -3 at 1/1 given NOrleans could hit form and blow them out (they are as likely to win big as win small) Sportwetten 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bawsak Posted October 3, 2020 Author Share Posted October 3, 2020 Week 4 Detroit 6/4 v New Orleans Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bawsak Posted October 3, 2020 Author Share Posted October 3, 2020 (edited) updated rankings after week 3 Blue = defence pink = offence yellow = overall Edited October 3, 2020 by bawsak Colour code added Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bawsak Posted October 3, 2020 Author Share Posted October 3, 2020 (edited) Again I’m not advising bets at this time but the bets this experimental system would throw up would be: Week 4 Carolina 2.48 v Arizona Atlanta 3.7 @ Green Bay Also on the spread: Carolina (+3) Atlanta (+7) And I’ll add in Detroit (+3) v New Orleans (it’s the system I’m experimenting after all - not my judgement) Edited October 3, 2020 by bawsak “Week 4” added for future reference Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bawsak Posted October 3, 2020 Author Share Posted October 3, 2020 Blue = defence pink = offence yellow = overall Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bawsak Posted October 3, 2020 Author Share Posted October 3, 2020 Just now, bawsak said: Blue = defence pink = offence yellow = overall Apologies. I mixed up entering some data for SanFran & Seattle. It was an alphabetical order issue due to Seattle jumping their abbreviation SF. SF got some of Seattle’s offensive and defensive data and vice versa. This is the updated version Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bawsak Posted October 8, 2020 Author Share Posted October 8, 2020 On 10/3/2020 at 10:33 PM, bawsak said: Week 4 Moneyline -0.52 Handicap -1 Running Total Moneyline -0.52 Handicap 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bawsak Posted October 8, 2020 Author Share Posted October 8, 2020 Week 5 Tampa Bay 1.54 v Chicago Tampa Bay (-3.5) v Chicago Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bawsak Posted October 9, 2020 Author Share Posted October 9, 2020 Rankings after week 4 (pre TNF) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bawsak Posted October 11, 2020 Author Share Posted October 11, 2020 Week 5 moneyline Cleveland 1.96 v Indianapolis Atlanta 1.8 v Carolina handicap Cleveland (-1) v Indianapolis Atlanta (-2.5) v Carolina Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bawsak Posted October 18, 2020 Author Share Posted October 18, 2020 Week 6 Cin 4.2 Atl 2.88 cle 2.64 TB 2.08 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bawsak Posted October 18, 2020 Author Share Posted October 18, 2020 CIN (-7) atl (-4) Cle (-3.5) TB (-1) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bawsak Posted October 18, 2020 Author Share Posted October 18, 2020 On 10/11/2020 at 2:11 PM, bawsak said: Week 5 moneyline Cleveland 1.96 v Indianapolis Atlanta 1.8 v Carolina handicap Cleveland (-1) v Indianapolis Atlanta (-2.5) v Carolina Running totals Money line -1.56 Spreads -1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bawsak Posted October 18, 2020 Author Share Posted October 18, 2020 SF 2.2 Buf 3.1 SF (+2.5) Buf (+5) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bawsak Posted October 18, 2020 Author Share Posted October 18, 2020 10 hours ago, bawsak said: CIN (-7) atl (-4) Cle (-3.5) TB (-1) Apologies these were obvs all + on the spread ? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bawsak Posted October 18, 2020 Author Share Posted October 18, 2020 Running totals Moneyline -0.6 spread +1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bawsak Posted October 18, 2020 Author Share Posted October 18, 2020 Basically my system seems to be rating Cincinnati, Cleveland, Tampa, Atlanta higher than the bookies do so I’m backing them at the moment and seems be rating KC, Pittsburgh, Indy much lower so I’m backing against them. As I say I’m still playing around with it. should probably have backed Houston in hindsight but I missed that one and it would have been a loser. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bawsak Posted October 19, 2020 Author Share Posted October 19, 2020 Money line +0.6 spread +2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bawsak Posted October 19, 2020 Author Share Posted October 19, 2020 Dallas 1.9 v Arizona Dallas (-1.5) v Arizona Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bawsak Posted October 25, 2020 Author Share Posted October 25, 2020 Cinci 2.86 Atlanta 1.96 Houston 2.36 cinci (+4) Atl (-1.5) Houston (+3) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bawsak Posted October 25, 2020 Author Share Posted October 25, 2020 Money line -1.4 spread +- 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bawsak Posted October 10, 2021 Author Share Posted October 10, 2021 Miami +10 N.O. -2.5 Phi +3 N.E. -8 GB -3 LAC -2.5 NYG +7 Buf +3 Indy +7 harry_rag 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
harry_rag Posted October 13, 2021 Share Posted October 13, 2021 Welcome back, been a bit of a hiatus! Maybe post your selections in the weekly threads as well (could still post/update this thread). Only 3 of us posting regularly so far, might as well have all the picks in one place. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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