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Bawsaks NFL


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I have created a system to rate NFL teams. Not sure if it’s any good but gonna experiment using it for bets. Please don’t follow it for bets at the moment as I haven’t any evidence it works. More of a running experiment. We will see how it goes

Here as some preseason ratings I created using some numerical formulas based on PFF grading for position groups. 

Blue numbers are defensive grades, pink is offence and yellow overall (with offence double weighted). Position grades have been weighted for importance in the following order: QB, WR, DB, OL/DL, LB, TE, RB. I haven’t included FBs or special team players in my grading. 

Also note these are preseason gradings and I haven’t made any adjustments yet for wk 1&2 performances  


Edited by bawsak
S for Secondary replaced with DB for Defensive Backs in the key to avoid confusion
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21 hours ago, bawsak said:

Week 3 pick

Cincinnati 2/1 v Philadelphia

Cincinnati (+4.5) 1/1 v Philadelphia 

Given poor play of Wentz at back end of season has continued Philadelphia’s  offence probably now ranks lower. Couple this with them already being quite close with the system ratings, Cinci at 2/1 seems a pick. 

Edited by bawsak
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I have updated a few areas. New Orleans have fallen off a cliff with Brees form and Thomas injury. OLine still good but rest of offence is average. 

I haven’t done all teams so won’t post revised grades but they dip to 74. 

Detroit also dip slightly to 69 but at home should still be a pickem game so decent pick to win at 6/4.  I don’t really fancy Detroit on the spread at -3 at 1/1 given NOrleans could hit form and blow them out (they are as likely to win big as win small)

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Again I’m not advising bets at this time but the bets this experimental system would throw up would be:

Week 4

Carolina 2.48 v Arizona

Atlanta 3.7 @ Green Bay


Also on the spread:

Carolina (+3)

Atlanta (+7)

And I’ll add in 

Detroit (+3) v New Orleans (it’s the system I’m experimenting after all - not my judgement)



Edited by bawsak
“Week 4” added for future reference
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Just now, bawsak said:

Blue = defence

pink = offence

yellow = overall




Apologies. I mixed up entering some data for SanFran & Seattle. It was an alphabetical order issue due to Seattle jumping their abbreviation SF. SF got some of Seattle’s offensive and defensive data and vice versa. 

This is the updated version 

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Basically my system seems to be rating Cincinnati, Cleveland, Tampa, Atlanta higher than the bookies do so I’m backing them at the moment and seems be rating KC, Pittsburgh, Indy much lower so I’m backing against them. 

As I say I’m still playing around with it. 

should probably have backed Houston in hindsight but I missed that one and it would have been a loser. 

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  • 11 months later...

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