Tennis Tips - October 26 - November 1

[CzechPunter]

[CzechPunter]

Alexander Bublik to beat Mackenzie McDonald at 1.53 with Bet365

The tournament in Kazakhstan wasn't in the schedule originally if I remember correctly, but it's a great chance for Bublik to shine again. He's done well lately and he's miles above McDonald in most regards. McDonald is there to trouble the heavy-moving guys, as he can out-run them all day long, but Bublik is a serious contender when he's actually trying and one that has all the necessary weapons as well. His drop serves won't work against McDonald though.

[rodxuabht]

Marbella: Alcaraz - Giustino: Alcaraz to win 2-1: 4.33 at bet365: As much as I am a fan of Alcaraz, I feel the odds slightly slighty overrated here. I think Alcaraz wins this match 49/50 times. Even tho Alcaraz did win most of the matches in the last weeks,even tho he is already a beast on clay, even thohe has a great mental, etc, he lacks the ability to be there constant, thus he loses sets easily in his matches. It's his first game in this tourney, I think this is realizable, good odds, good game. This is a 2% bet of my bankroll.

Edit: Giustino won 2-1

Edited October 27, 2020 by rodxuabht

[rodxuabht]

Bedene - Evans: Bedene to take a set - 1.50 : Now in my book, this is the typical match where Evans loses 2-0, and gets eliminated in the first round. Just to be more safe and realistic: neither players are anything special, Evans is a freakin joke in my opinion, Bedene average as well. Evans can bring a pretty high level, but he's a typical verbal tilting player - thus his shots - shotselections are big question marks for me in certain situations.

 Evans choked the final 2 days ago, as much as I believe he would win versus Bedene(maybe) in fully normal situations, I don't think tomorrow can be counted as one. I jus't dont see him resetting mentally, physically. Bedene got his warmup in Vienna, he takes a set in the uppermentioned conditions any day of the week.

(Bedene to win 2-0 : 3.75)

 

Edit: Bedene retired

Edited October 27, 2020 by rodxuabht

[ogii55]

Carlos-Gomez Herrera - Steven Diez 3.2

Herrera is the local guy, he trains in the facility where the tournament will be held. He showed pretty nice form in September and is well rested. Diez played well last year on the same tournament, but I think his odds should be way higher. Value bet for the local guy

[rodxuabht]

ITF Heraklion: Roumane - Marozsan : Roumane to win : 1.67 at unibet: Now to be honest, this is a pretty odd matchup. I've seen both Roumane and Marozsan play in real life. I find Roumane a superhard favourite in this matchup, on hard court. He got the height, he got a pretty nuts service game, also got lots of  experience versus some pretty good opponents. Marozsan on the other side is not a bad player either, I jus't dont seem to find any advantage in his part of the game.( The odds will drop severely(at bet365 its 1.57 currently). This is again a 10% of the bankroll bet for me, I rarely stake higher than the usual, but this one cannot get past me. I would actually be extremely surprised if Roumane loses this one, but at the end of the day its tennis, so.

Edited October 27, 2020 by rodxuabht

[CzechPunter]

I find it bizarre that the WTA wasn't able to organize tournaments for these weeks.

[Torque]

3 hours ago, CzechPunter said:

I find it bizarre that the WTA wasn't able to organize tournaments for these weeks.

Agree. Very strange.

[CzechPunter]

Lorenzo Sonego to beat Hubert Hurkacz at 3.10 with Pinnacle

Hurkacz might be the better hard court player of the two, but why Sonego is above 3.00 is beyond me. He's a decent player on all courts and he played well against Lajovic, so I reckon he has a hot against Hurkacz as well. The big man from Poland played well below his standards against Balazs, his serve wasn't piercing at all and he had a surprising number of double faults. Not sure what's happening, he didn't look injured, but I don't think he should be priced as such a huge favorite for tommorow.

[bet4fun]

On 10/28/2020 at 5:58 PM, CzechPunter said:

Lorenzo Sonego to beat Hubert Hurkacz at 3.10 with Pinnacle

Hurkacz might be the better hard court player of the two, but why Sonego is above 3.00 is beyond me. He's a decent player on all courts and he played well against Lajovic, so I reckon he has a hot against Hurkacz as well. The big man from Poland played well below his standards against Balazs, his serve wasn't piercing at all and he had a surprising number of double faults. Not sure what's happening, he didn't look injured, but I don't think he should be priced as such a huge favorite for tommorow.

gr8 call . ?

[rodxuabht]

Rublev - Thiem : Rublev to win: 2.20 - bet365: As I see it, this is a 50-50, slightly leaning towards Rublev, so I'mma try out happily the 2.20.

Edited October 29, 2020 by rodxuabht

[CzechPunter]

Have you seen Thiem in any of his matches? I was so focused on Sonego that I was tired after that!

[rodxuabht]

1 hour ago, CzechPunter said:

Have you seen Thiem in any of his matches? I was so focused on Sonego that I was tired after that!

I've seen Thiem - Sachko, and whilst I don't know much honestly about the ukrainian guy, he proved to be an uncomfortable opponent in many ways. Thiem handled it well, he's playing a pretty solid tennis. I was also a huge fanboy of Thiem on clay, but in the start I didn't like his effort to convert his game to hard, well, now he's almost natural there too, so. My part of the coin would be Rublev  playing the best tennis of his career, especially indoors, thus taking the underdog from the bookies point of view.

Edited October 29, 2020 by rodxuabht

[CzechPunter]

Can't find anything for today no matter how hard I look, but Rublev appeals to a degree.

[Foo_Fighter]

Emil Ruusuvuori to beat Kukushkin at 1.55 with bet365

The Finnish kid certainly has much potential to become a top player in men's tennis. I think his overall level of play is already much better than Kukushkin's so he will probably advance to the next round today. 

[888888]

Tommy Paul against Millman, 3rd set tie break, Paul from 5-0 to losing 5-7 , unbelievable.

[Foo_Fighter]

46 minutes ago, 888888 said:

Tommy Paul against Millman, 3rd set tie break, Paul from 5-0 to losing 5-7 , unbelievable.

The exact same thing happened yesterday, Dimitrov was 5-0 up at the tie break and he lost 5-7. He won the match though. 

[rodxuabht]

Here comes the moment when Rublev breaks in the second set and we cash out

 

Edit: What in god's name is that forehand from Rublev, holy hell

Edited October 30, 2020 by rodxuabht

[CzechPunter]

Oh, wow. Just secured the ranking and lost to Sonego. Awful sportsmanship.

[Torque]

Djokovic just gave another example of why he'll never be as well regarded as Nadal and Federer. Up until this match the number one ranking was on the line, and there's no way if that was still in play he'd have lost 6-2, 6-1 to Sonego. He couldn't have made it any clearer that he wasn't interested in winning if he'd put a big sign on his head that read "I'm not bothered about winning this match because I've done what I came here to do" - and as I'm writing this he's admitted as much. If Nadal or Federer were in that position there is no way they'd have treated their opponent or the tournament with such contempt. Sonego can't celebrate the win as much as he should do because he'll know Djokovic wasn't trying. 

[bet4fun]

9 hours ago, Torque said:

Djokovic just gave another example of why he'll never be as well regarded as Nadal and Federer. Up until this match the number one ranking was on the line, and there's no way if that was still in play he'd have lost 6-2, 6-1 to Sonego. He couldn't have made it any clearer that he wasn't interested in winning if he'd put a big sign on his head that read "I'm not bothered about winning this match because I've done what I came here to do" - and as I'm writing this he's admitted as much. If Nadal or Federer were in that position there is no way they'd have treated their opponent or the tournament with such contempt. Sonego can't celebrate the win as much as he should do because he'll know Djokovic wasn't trying. 

if i am right djokovic career is on the downhill now. the way he lost to sonego yesterday has no explainations. it was a no show from djokovic. i think that is a big difference between nadal and him. rafa never plays for points but because he loves the games. novak came here only for his greed and paid a price. greed of remaining on the top. rublev is a clear winner now and if he messes up he is not going to get future chances. there is no way he is winning in paris masters with the king of clay playing

[bet4fun]

15 hours ago, 888888 said:

Tommy Paul against Millman, 3rd set tie break, Paul from 5-0 to losing 5-7 , unbelievable.

oh my god. another joker. i dont understand how you can lose from 5-0 but that was one hell of a chance to bet on millman. if players like millman start winning from 0-5 down tennis is in great shape.?

[vladisimo2]

On 10/31/2020 at 6:12 AM, bet4fun said:

oh my god. another joker. i dont understand how you can lose from 5-0 but that was one hell of a chance to bet on millman. if players like millman start winning from 0-5 down tennis is in great shape.?

Milman is a fighter though and it's not like tommy paul is the future of tennis anyway.

Edited November 1, 2020 by vladisimo2

[vladisimo2]

I'd go with over 18.5 games on rublev-sonego if you wanna risk more. And over 17.5 games if you want to place higher stakes.

[CzechPunter]

I have to agree with Sonego being the man to back if you want to back someone. Not because of the match against Djokovic itself, but because it seems to have given him sky-high confidence. He was almost unplayable against Evans yesterday, perfect shot selection and no mistakes whatsoever, winners flying from his forehand at will. Obviously this is a final and Rublev is closer to Djokovic in terms of skill than to Evans. The one thing that I strongly recommend is NOT backing Rublev outright, it's not a banker by any stretch.

[rodxuabht]

I mean hard work pays off. Only player besides Thiem maybe, who plays and trains seriously since August. 31 W / 4 losses since then

[CzechPunter]

Yep, hard work pays off. Shout out to Sonego though, covered the handicap line and looked alright. Certainly made the most out of his lucky loser spot!