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Tennis Tips - October 19 - October 25


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  • 4 weeks later...

Kristyna Pliskova (+3.5) to beat Maria Sakkari at 1.90 with Bet365

I had a similar bet back in Palermo, where Pliskova actually managed to beat Sakkari without much trouble, 6-4 6-4. Now, we're moving indoors and it's not clear to me why Sakkari should be such a decent favorite again. She's the slightly better player overall, but Pliskova can do a lot of damage with her serve and the home conditions should be to her advantage as well, so I'll take her on the +3.5 games line.

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Federico Coria to beat Lloyd Harris at 5.90 with Pinnacle

This looks worth taking to me as well, the odds are massive and Pinnacle are a one-set bookie, which could come in handy. Harris had some injury issues back in Cologne and he wasn't exactly sharp today, nearly losing a set against the unknown Zane Khan. Coria is obviously not an indoors specialist, but he's a decent player in his own right and the odds look ridiculous to me no matter how hard I'm trying to justify this sort of favoritism.

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11 hours ago, CzechPunter said:

Federico Coria to beat Lloyd Harris at 5.90 with Pinnacle

This looks worth taking to me as well, the odds are massive and Pinnacle are a one-set bookie, which could come in handy. Harris had some injury issues back in Cologne and he wasn't exactly sharp today, nearly losing a set against the unknown Zane Khan. Coria is obviously not an indoors specialist, but he's a decent player in his own right and the odds look ridiculous to me no matter how hard I'm trying to justify this sort of favoritism.

This is spicy! I love it

 

Today, I'mma go with one bet, Kontaveit-Alexandrova over 21.5 games: if this wouldn't go down as a 3 setter, I'd be extremely surprised. Both of them having awkwardly low moments in their matches (also some good).

Edited by rodxuabht
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Cameron Norrie to beat Emil Ruusuvuori at 2.00 with local

The odds are starting to get released in this range and I don't see why Norrie should be the underdog. He looked very good in Russia last week and Ruusuvuori hasn't had a good win for ages. He is a bit more adapted, but, apart from that, he should be the worse player. At evens, I'm happy to back Norrie in any case, this is the part of the season he was waiting for.

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15 minutes ago, CzechPunter said:

Not good today. Am I the only one thinking Bedene might be worth a shot on the handicap line?

TBH on a  fast Hard Indoor surface I doubt he can break Raonic serve . 

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Hello guys,
I was against Emil in his first match against Galan Riveros, who came after 4 wins at Rollan Garos. Riveros was destroyed and didn't have any chances, especially in the second set. Norrie is way better on hard and indoor, but I still think 2.5+ could be some value.
Got Verdasco today vs Milman at 2.15. Got him at early price of around 2.08. And now the odds jumped a bit. 

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image.png

Really not sure what the odds movement was about!

Elina Svitolina to beat Maria Sakkari at 1.76 with Unibet

Despite the win, I didn't like Sakkari against Pliskova yesterday. She struggled whenever she was on the move and Svitolina will move her around, that's for sure. The loss against Podoroska was disappointing for the Ukrainian, but these conditions should suit her more.

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Zizou Bergs (+5.5) to beat Karen Khachanov at 1.80 with Bet365

Cameron Norrie (+4.5) to beat Milos Raonic at 1.81 with Pinnacle

Going for these two tomorrow. I liked Bergs in his first match, he's playing spirited tennis, giving it his all and has a big serve to do damage with. Khachanov was very average last week and, although I expect him to win, the 5.5 games margin looks a touch high to me. I'm also taking Norrie on the handicap line, as I wanted to do the same with Bedene. Norrie has been very kind to me recently and I still think that he's being undervalued by the market. He's got a good game for indoors conditions and he's in a good nick at the moment.

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Fritz vs Lloyd

I just thought that the time and opportunity was right to go back to complete a job that the Czech Punter started at the beginning of the week and abandoned from the resulting initial disappointment. Clearly noticing that Lloyd was low in energy levels and suffering physically, Czech had seemingly sent in a hit man in the name of Coria to finish him off. I thought then that the idea was right except that Coria finding the task beyond him because of the potential match up on the surface. Lloyd called the bluff and even went on to win his next match which was a slight upgrade in Moutet. I continued to keep Lloyd under radar even after Czech checked out. Today definitely seems the day to reassess those energy levels as Lloyd faces an even sterner test in Fritz who accelerated past Opelka yesterday(Even though I thought Opelka's challenge was suspect). I expect Fritz to win by any means necessary and move on to the next round. Good luck!!!

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Gabriela Talaba - Christine Bellis - over 20.5 or Talaba +1.5 sets: 2.20 odds: This is the typical 3 setter bullshit itf women's tennis match. ( With all the respect). Bellis played a pretty good tennis in the last months, Talaba too. They are two pretty similar players, the 'education' of american tennis systems. 3 setter all the way. Value.

 

Zarazua - Kostyuk: Kostyuk will be a top20 player soon imo. She got all the 'weapons', whether she gets there or not. Time will tell.  Mentally she is clearly not there yet, she tilts easily. She tanked versus Hibino, lol.  Luckily for us, this rarely happens against worse opponents, but versus very good opponents ( Osaka, Giorgi, etc). Kostyuk prepares hard since the French Open outing, this is definitely a place to prove herself. When she feels weakness she mainly destroys the enemy. One can say Zarazua is a good player, Imma come out and say she hasnt met a player of the caliber of Kostyuk in the last 3 months .I am gonna keep pushing and taking all the value bets on Kostyuk and Alcaraz also, they are way ahead of the rest. Kostyuk to win: 1.53

 

Edited by rodxuabht
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Jason Jung to beat Benjamin Bonzi at 2.00 with Bet365

I'll take the hard-working Jung at these odds anytime. Bonzi is way more flashy and that's great at times, it allows him to pull off various upsets, but this isn't the best of match-ups for him and I'd have the odds the other way around at least. Jung seemed to be in fine nick so far.

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Harris - Humbert 2.6

 

Harris is playing better with each match. He has great serve. Playing very good baseline tennis and is showing the best tennis of his life. Humbert beat PCB, but he is not consistent during matches. Has big drops in game, which could be huge problem vs opponent with big serve on indoor.

Does someone watch Sabalenka vs Gauff? I wonder if to try Sara Tormo, who is showing nice form vs her tonight.

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35 minutes ago, ogii55 said:

Harris - Humbert 2.6

 

Harris is playing better with each match. He has great serve. Playing very good baseline tennis and is showing the best tennis of his life. Humbert beat PCB, but he is not consistent during matches. Has big drops in game, which could be huge problem vs opponent with big serve on indoor.

Does someone watch Sabalenka vs Gauff? I wonder if to try Sara Tormo, who is showing nice form vs her tonight.

I don't dare to pull the trigger on Soribes Tormo but I have pulled the trigger on Elise Mertens to beat (-1.5 sets) Victoria Azarenka at 3.65 with Unibet

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36 minutes ago, ogii55 said:

Harris - Humbert 2.6

 

Harris is playing better with each match. He has great serve. Playing very good baseline tennis and is showing the best tennis of his life. Humbert beat PCB, but he is not consistent during matches. Has big drops in game, which could be huge problem vs opponent with big serve on indoor.

Does someone watch Sabalenka vs Gauff? I wonder if to try Sara Tormo, who is showing nice form vs her tonight.

There is definitely the problem with the clash of styles and trying to figure out what Sabalenka's raw power might be worth. However, I think that there is already evidence to show that should not be a problem with Sorribes having previously succeeded over a similar player in Kontaveit. I think Sorribes may be on one of those unusual freaky runs that comes not so often in a players career. Sorribes to win definitely is the right play here.

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16 minutes ago, liquidglass said:

There is definitely the problem with the clash of styles and trying to figure out what Sabalenka's raw power might be worth. However, I think that there is already evidence to show that should not be a problem with Sorribes having previously succeeded over a similar player in Kontaveit. I think Sorribes may be on one of those unusual freaky runs that comes not so often in a players career. Sorribes to win definitely is the right play here.

Thanks @liquidglass I might back Sorribes based on your thoughts.

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If anyone backs Davidovich Fokina in future, it might be an idea to cash out if he gets into a winning position. He's just gone from 6-2, 5-2 - at which point he was backed at 1.01 - to 6-2, 6-7, 1-6 against Schwartzman. Now Schwartzman is obviously a very good player, but that is one monumental choke. He served for a straight sets win not once, not twice, but three times and had a match point but still couldn't get over the line and win. The third set evisceration was sadly all too predictable as well.

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1 hour ago, Torque said:

If anyone backs Davidovich Fokina in future, it might be an idea to cash out if he gets into a winning position. He's just gone from 6-2, 5-2 - at which point he was backed at 1.01 - to 6-2, 6-7, 1-6 against Schwartzman. Now Schwartzman is obviously a very good player, but that is one monumental choke. He served for a straight sets win not once, not twice, but three times and had a match point but still couldn't get over the line and win. The third set evisceration was sadly all too predictable as well.

Sometimes it can be so very difficult to distinguish between a monumental choke and suicide. That would seem to me like suicide for profits. Certainly the most annoying way anyone can lose money.

Edited by liquidglass
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15 minutes ago, liquidglass said:

Sometimes it can be so very difficult to distinguish between a monumental choke and suicide. That would seem to me like suicide for profits. Certainly the most annoying way anyone can lose money.

It's a choke all day long, and suicide for profits as you call it for anyone backing him at 1.01. It's a choke all day long because he'd been holding his serve easily enough for very nearly two sets, yet when the finish line came into sight he was broken repeatedly.

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3 hours ago, ogii55 said:

If someone bet huge money on Sabalenka vs Tormo at 0:6, 0:4 40:A, Saba could be banned for life :) What a crazy match

Obviously a mental thing mainly, although seemed to me like she got injured

 

Edit: 

Marta Kostyuk to win ITF Marcon - 2.70 - at Unibet: as I see it, today she'll win versus Frech pretty easily, then tomorrow she'll meet Lepchenko/Bellis, whom neither I find in any ways good enough to beat Kostyuk.

Edited by rodxuabht
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7 hours ago, Torque said:

It's a choke all day long, and suicide for profits as you call it for anyone backing him at 1.01. It's a choke all day long because he'd been holding his serve easily enough for very nearly two sets, yet when the finish line came into sight he was broken repeatedly.

what is even more frustrating is fokina was leading 5-2, A-40 and just had to serve well to finish the game. one ace would have done instead he messed up the whole game. what a joker. another chance to finish the game at 6-4 was also there. lost that game as well. with so many screwed chances cannot expect him to win the match.

Schwartzman was pathetic. he is not going to get chances against top 4( thiem, nadal, djokovic and federer). I am putting my money on the kid jannik sinner because zverev is pathetic as well. playing in amateur tournaments does not make him special

 

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Kostyuk - Bellis: As I said yesterday, Kostyuk won versus Frech without any problems whatsoever. Bellis won pretty convincingly as well, Lepchenko abandoned the 2nd set.

Neither of them lost a set throughout the tournament, and I like Bellis' playstyle, I liked it even in 2018, I just won't miss out on these odds on Kostyuk, per se she's the way better player overall. 

Kostyuk to win 1.76 - Unibet

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