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La Liga Predictions > Sep 25th - 28th


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I'm not a skillful writer/storyteller, so will keep it short and simple. In my mind those matches are way more analyzed, but here we go:

Valencia - Huesca
Los Che is a team to watch this season if you want to see a entertaining football match - their defense is very weak and midfield makes childish  mistakes/gives the ball away cheaply also (Esquerdo is especially weak imo) so overall it's very easy to score goals against them at the moment. Levante scored 2 and should have scored more (suffered a defeat only because of their own naive game plan) and Celta won only 2-1 although they should have won by at least 3 goals. At the same time, though, Valencia attacking power is quite good, especially Maxi Gomez who has started the season very well. He can score out of nowhere + has a skillful sidekick Kang-In Lee to assist him. 
Huesca on the other hand has had 2 very different games. They played quite well against Villarreal and scored a great team goal, but didn't do anything useful with the 79% possession against a well organized Cadiz team. I think the odds here for unders are so high because of the latter mentioned fact. But against Valencia, things should be very different and I expect both teams to score at least one goal with Valencia probably winning in the end.
Pick: BTTS @ 1.9 (bet365)
Lean: Over 2.5 @ 2.19 (SBO) or as possible with some bookies (including bet365): BTTS + Over 2.5 @ 2.6

 

Elche - Real Sociedad
La Real has not had the start for the season as was hoped for, but it is to be expected as the end of last season already showed some signs of it. On top of that, they have had serious injury/covid problem and lost Ödegaard who was their main architect (replaced by the brilliant David Villa of course, but it will take time for him to get into the groove). Of course draw against champions Real Madrid is nothing to be ashamed of, but overall the flow is not there yet. But this week most players are back and team overall has had 2 games to get things going. Against them is newly promoted Elche team who are tipped to go down to Segunda and I totally agree - they just don't have to quality for Primera division. This is the perfect game for Sociedad to get back on winning ways. I believe they are totally capable of doing it and gladly take these odds for the away win.
Pick: Real Sociedad win @ 2.1 (Coolbet, Unibet etc)
Lean: Alexander Isak anytime scorer @ 3


Real Betis - Real Madrid
Real Madrid is lacking something up front. Yes, the can dominate games and so on, but in regards of goal threat, they will struggle a little bit this season and it showed against Sociedad last weekend. Yes, it was just the first match of their season and Zidane experimented with the line-up and formation quite a bit, but I'm still convinced that Los Blancos are too reliant on Benzema form and will grind quite a lot of narrow wins this season as they did in the second part of last season. Pretty sure Zidane will go back to his old 4-3-3 as well for this game.
Betis has really improved under Pellegrini, especially defensively (signing Claudio Bravo has helped a lot also). They look totally different team compared to last seasons - organized and knowing what they are asked to do on the pitch. And although they have awesome attacking players, it takes a bit more time to get the flow to start scoring easily. I think both teams will cancel each other out and we'll see a low-scoring draw or maybe a narrow win for the reigning champions.
Pick: Under 2.75 @ 1.92 (bet365 and some others)
Lean: draw @ 4

 

Osasuna - Levante
I think Osasuna would have been favourites this weekend if the following 2 circumstances would have been filled: 1) Crowd would be allowed in the stadium 2) Osasuna best defender Aridane would be fit and ready to play. But neither of these are happening this weekend, so for me it is a 50/50 game and I will take happily Levante DNB
Pick: Levante DNB @ 2.3 (Betsafe, Coolbet etc)
Lean: Over 2.5 @ 2.13 (SBO)

 

Valladolid - Celta Vigo
Celta was really good last weekend, but we have to remember they played against Valencia and Valladolid defense is a different kind of test. On top of that Celta has shown some signs and given hope of improvement/playing closer to their potential every now and then the last couple of seasons and then falling back to being miserable the next game, so I think Valladolid +0 here with these odds is good value. 
Pick: Valladolid +0 AH @ 2.03 (Pinnacle)

Edited by dinero
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Elche CF vs Real Sociedad

 

 

Elche CF

Doubtful:

Out (injuries/other):

Suspended:

 

Real Sociedad

Doubtful: Willian José (0/0 f, last season top scorer, probably in)

Out (injuries/other): Zubeldia (1/0 m), Zaldúa (0/0 d), Illarramendi (0/0 m), Sangalli (0/0 m), Guridi (0/0 m), Merquelanz (0/0 f)

Suspended:

 

Daily updated injuries and suspensions information from more then 100 football leagues and competitions worldwide at: www.injuriesandsuspensions.com

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It will not be an easy task for Real Madrid in Villarreal, but it has the quality to pass with a victory. Betis started with two victories, keeping their home intact, today, they will not be able to maintain zero in defense and I expect Real Madrid to win, albeit with great difficulty
REAL BETIS vs REAL MADRID @@ REAL MADRID, odds 1.83

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Football Facts and Streaks regarding LaLiga

Sevilla are undefeated in their last 15 matches in LaLiga.
Athletic Bilbao have lost with at least a 2 goal margin in their last 3 matches in LaLiga.
Barcelona have won their last 10 home matches against Villarreal in all competitions.
Atletico are undefeated in their last 16 matches in LaLiga.
Celta Vigo have kept a clean sheet in 75% of their last 8 away matches in LaLiga.

You can find interesting 48 Football Betting Facts and Streaks for 27.09.2020 on this link ... https://eurofootballrumours.com/football-facts-and-streaks-27-09-2020-20793

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On 9/24/2020 at 1:01 PM, dinero said:

Valencia - Huesca
Pick: BTTS @ 1.9 (bet365) 
Lean: Over 2.5 @ 2.19 (SBO) or as possible with some bookies (including bet365): BTTS + Over 2.5 @ 2.6

Elche - Real Sociedad
Pick: Real Sociedad win @ 2.1 (Coolbet, Unibet etc) 
Lean: Alexander Isak anytime scorer @ 3

Real Betis - Real Madrid
Pick: Under 2.75 @ 1.92 (bet365 and some others) 
Lean: draw @ 4

Osasuna - Levante
Pick: Levante DNB @ 2.3 (Betsafe, Coolbet etc) 
Lean: Over 2.5 @ 2.13 (SBO)

Valladolid - Celta Vigo
Pick: Valladolid +0 AH @ 2.03 (Pinnacle) 🔁 

+2.3 units so can't complain (leans are just informative suggestions and I don't play those)
Betis - Real Madrid: went quite south with the pick, but at least it was an entertaining match. 

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Football Facts and Streaks regarding LaLiga

Valencia have lost with a 1 goal margin in their last 3 away matches in LaLiga.
There have been under 2.5 goals scored in Getafe’s last 5 games in LaLiga.
Real Sociedad are undefeated in their last 6 matches in LaLiga.
Valencia have lost 86% of their last 7 away matches in LaLiga.

You can find interesting 21 Football Betting Facts and Streaks for 29.09.2020 on this link ... https://eurofootballrumours.com/football-facts-and-streaks-29-09-2020-20815

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No thread for matchday 4 so I'll add my picks to this one.

Real Sociedad - Valencia
Sociedad has had a rather slow start to the season, but they are slowly getting into the groove and took their first win of the season couple of days ago against newly-promoted Elche side (3-0). Yes, Elche is rather a second division team and will very likely go back to Segunda after this season, but this bet is more against Valencia than it is for Sociedad. 
Valencia had a nice start to the season couple of weeks ago against Levante, but they are in shambles and this is more clear with every match. In each match this season they have dropped a level, team spirit is low and coach Javi Garcia is already criticising the management of not doing their job (of buying new players and building the team as was promised to him). He has said that with the quality he has in the team, it's not possible to get better result and that tells a lot ... 
So if Sociedad will play as good (or better) as they did against Elche, I think the win will be more than 1 goal difference and I'm happy to take -1 AH at around evens. 
Pick: Sociedad -1 AH @ 2.0

 

Huesca - Atletico Madrid
Atletico had an amazing game vs Granada but of course we can't read to much into one match. Especially against a small team who is battling on two fronts, but scoring 6 goals and having so much fun on the pitch from minute 1 was a joy to watch.  And I think they will continue with the momentum and score at least couple against Huesca.
Suarez is an amazing addition to the team and probably just what they needed attacking/scoring wise and fits perfectly to the dressing room imo. Atletico looked overall in a great shape and I think with the addition of El Pistolero they are amongs the titles challengers in a season where there is no favourite imo. 
Pick: Atletico to score over 1.5 goals @ 1.9



Sevilla - Levante
Levante is an attacking side and while Sevilla can be very hard nut to crack, I think on current form Levante is easily able to score a goal against them. That being said, Sevilla is very strong this season and one goal against them in Ramon Sanchez-Pizjuan is not enough.
Pick: BTTS + over 2.5 @ 2.37



Getafe - Real Betis
Getafe is a well known team with strong defense and while it seems Real Betis has also improved defensively, I still think this game has value in goals. Both teams come from a disappointing weekend (Getafe from a goalless draw and while Betis was of course underdog against Real, they probably feel hard done by referee) and want to get back to winnings ways. Pure math says it will be a low scoring match, but when either of the sides open the scoring, we can see a rather high scoring game here. 
Pick: Over 2.5 goals @ 2.46

 

Celta Vigo - Barcelona
This one should be an entertaining match and while Barca seemed solid in defense against a very disappointing Villarreal side, I'm not sure this game was a real indicator of they strength yet. Celta at home is quite good attacking wise and I don't think Barca, after such a weird summer, has drastically improved their away form. Yeah, they will probably win and Koeman probably has done a better job than most people expected, but I expect Celta to score at least one. Nobody doubts Barcelonas attacking power with all the names they have up front, so we should see a great match between 2 attacking sides.
Pick: BTTS + over 2.5 @  2.05

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