Rugby Union Bets 2020

[harry_rag]

A bit shocking to note we've gone around 10 months without a bet in here. Braving the tumbleweed I thought I'd start a thread for any noteworthy bets on the sport between now and the end of the calendar year, starting with this one that caught my eye today.

The substantial majority of my spread bets are "routine" sells but every now and again I come across an "interesting" one that might be worthy of posting. There's one tonight in the Sale v Quins Premiership cup game, with hotshots quote at 31-35 by SX but 44-48 by SPIN. Unsurprisingly, there's a difference between the 4 players each firm has selected, with SX choosing Hammersley and SPIN opting for van Rensburg. The other 3 players with each firm are Solomana, James and Yarde.

Whilst Hammersley is worth less based on the respective try minutes quotes, there's not a huge amount in it. He's pitched at 6-8 while van Rensburg is 10-12 (based on best prices). If I use the try mins prices to estimate fair hotshots prices I get 32.6 (within the spread) for SX and 34.9 (9 points outside the spread) for SPIN. Given that it's possible to make a case for almost blindly selling in this market, this looks like an unusually strong selection, so the bet is sell Sale hotshots at 44 with SPIN.

Worth pointing out that the bet shows a loss if the 4 players score 2 or more tries between them and that, while the maximum upside is a win of 44 x stake if they all come up short, it's quite possible I could lose more than 100 x stake should they run riot. That's the nature of selling though. More wins than losses in the long run but lots of modest wins punctuated by some painful large losses.

[harry_rag]

21 hours ago, harry_rag said:

If I use the try mins prices to estimate fair hotshots prices I get 32.6 (within the spread) for SX and 34.9 (9 points outside the spread) for SPIN. Given that it's possible to make a case for almost blindly selling in this market, this looks like an unusually strong selection, so the bet is sell Sale hotshots at 44 with SPIN.

 No tries for any of the players so a make up of zero for the maximum profit of 44 x stake.

In the interest of transparency I should say that my only other bet on the game was a "routine" sell of Sale substitute try minutes at 39 which made up at 78 for a 39 point loss, meaning I only made a small net profit on the game. That's the nature of these bets though, it's all about sticking to the script and turning a long term profit.

[harry_rag]

Here's another "interesting" sell (the routine sells are ticking over nicely, certainly outperforming all that "value" stuff I post on here)! 

Bulls v Griquas: Sell Bulls hotshots at 73 with SPIN (Gio Aplon, Travis Ismaiel, Cornal Hendricks, David Kriel). SX go 63-68 with Gans in place of Hendricks. Gans' try minutes are on offer at 28-30 while Hendricks are only 19-20. So a 10 point lower hotshots price when the player who differs has a 10 points lower try minutes price! 

Using my basic equation to convert try minutes prices to a hotshots value I make the SX quartet worth 66, bang in the middle of their spread. The SPIN foursome, however, come out at just 60.5.

So, to reiterate, selling the Bulls hotshots at 73 with SPIN appears to be a clear cut value trade.

[harry_rag]

23 hours ago, harry_rag said:

Using my basic equation to convert try minutes prices to a hotshots value I make the SX quartet worth 66, bang in the middle of their spread. The SPIN foursome, however, come out at just 60.5.

So, to reiterate, selling the Bulls hotshots at 73 with SPIN appears to be a clear cut value trade.

Again, no tries for any of the 4 players so the maximum profit of 73 x stake. Having been transparent with my other losing bet on the previous selection, it only seems fair to mention that the other "routine" bet on this game was a sell of the Bulls sub try minutes at 88 which also made up at zero for a profit of 88 x stake! 

One for today in a similar vein thought closer to routine than the previous selection (this has a perceived edge of 11% compared to 17% and 20% for the last 2).

Glasgow v Scarlets: Sell Glasgow hotshots at 31 with SPIN (Tommy Seymour, Nick Grigg, Ratu Tagive, Ali Price)

SX go 29-33 with Jones instead of Price. Jones can be bought or sold at 14 while Price is on offer at 8-10. "True" prices are 30.5 SX (bang in the middle of the spread) but 27.6 for SPIN (over 3 points below the sell price). Always nice to be selling at prices closer to yesterday's than today's but I've placed enough of these bets to be happy with this one, win or lose. To better serve the interests of transparency, I'll mention my routine bets upfront, I've sold both teams' sub try minutes, at 50 and 40 respectively.

[harry_rag]

22 hours ago, harry_rag said:

Glasgow v Scarlets: Sell Glasgow hotshots at 31 with SPIN (Tommy Seymour, Nick Grigg, Ratu Tagive, Ali Price)

To better serve the interests of transparency, I'll mention my routine bets upfront, I've sold both teams' sub try minutes, at 50 and 40 respectively.

No tries for the hotshots or any of the subs so a clean sweep and a profit of 111 x stake (sub prices were 50 and 30, not 40 as stated).

Maximum profit from all 5 bets posted in this thread so far, a total of 228 points. 148 points from the 3 "interesting" bets.

[harry_rag]

Back by popular demand with another of those interesting bets!

Hawkes Bay v Northland: sell Hawkes Bay hotshots at 44 with SPIN (Baker, Visinia, Ili and Lowe)

SX go 41-45 with Fakatawa instead of Ili despite the former being worth more in the try mins market. My value for the SX quartet is 36.6 (unusually outside their spread, offering a reasonable enough 12% edge) but only 32.3 for the SPIN hotshots, offering closer to a 27% edge.

Routine bet on this game is a sell of Hawkes Bay sub try mins at 42.

[harry_rag]

16 hours ago, harry_rag said:

Hawkes Bay v Northland: sell Hawkes Bay hotshots at 44 with SPIN (Baker, Visinia, Ili and Lowe)

SX go 41-45 with Fakatawa instead of Ili despite the former being worth more in the try mins market. My value for the SX quartet is 36.6 (unusually outside their spread, offering a reasonable enough 12% edge) but only 32.3 for the SPIN hotshots, offering closer to a 27% edge.

Routine bet on this game is a sell of Hawkes Bay sub try mins at 42.

36 points profit on the hotshots (8 points for a non-runner but no tries for the remaining 3 players) but a 24 point loss on the sub try minutes so a 12 point net profit on the game.

[harry_rag]

Bulls v Cheetahs: Sell Bulls hotshots at 35 with SPIN (Gio Aplon, David Kriel, Cornal Hendricks, Jade Stighling).

SX have the same quartet at 30-34 and i get a notional value of just under 29. While a sell at 30 would probably be value trade but hardly an exciting one, selling at 4 points higher seems like a solid enough bet with a perceived edge of almost 18%.

Same game I'm also selling Cheetahs hotshots at 47 and home and away sub try minutes at 35 and 40.

[harry_rag]

Bulls hotshots made up at zero for the maximum 35 point profit. Of the mentions, Cheetahs hotshots made up at 25 and their sub try mins at zero but the Bulls subs came in at 78, so a further 19 points added to the net profit for the game.

Tonight's Pumas v Stormers game throws up a bet that is interesting for the usual sort of reasons (higher price than elsewhere despite a different player who is apparently worth less). Sell Stormers hotshots at 56 with SPIN (Warrick Gelant, Edwill VD Merwe, Rikus Petorius, Leolin Zas).

I get a "true market value" of 44.8 based on their try minute prices (for a 20% perceived edge) and it's hard to find a way of valuing them at more than 50.

As ever, those of you who are following, don't go mad with the stakes. (Where's that tumbleweed smiley when you need it?) 

Ps - I've also sold their sub try minutes at 44 with SX.

[harry_rag]

Scotland v Georgia tonight and I've got a feeling the 26 point dogs may be a bit more yappy and bitey than the markets seem to expect. For fun and an interest I've backed three of their players for small stakes at big prices.

Matiashvili, Tapladze and Lobzhanidze anytime tryscorer at 17/2, 7/1 and 14/1 (Last one Sky Bet, the others Lads). I've also bought their try minutes at an aggregate price of 12 with SPIN (5, 4 and 3 respectively).

[harry_rag]

Blank day today. Stormers hotshots made up at 75 for a 19 point loss, their try minutes at 16 for another 18 so -37 in total. Only one try for Georgia and not one of my trio so my stake is leaving on the midnight train, to paraphrase Gladys Knight and the Pips.

One for the early hours - Hawkes Bay v Manawatu: sell Hawkes Bay Hotshots at 59 with SPIN  (Caleb Makene, Lolagi  Visinia, Stacey Ili, Neria Fomai). I'm valuing at 41.3 for an edge of a whopping 30%. 63 to sell elsewhere but with 2 players different and look worth much more.

I've also sold their sub try minutes at 56.

[harry_rag]

2 hotshots tries means a make up of 50 and a 9 point profit on the "headline" bet. There was a 22 point loss on the "also" bet which means a net 13 point loss on the game.

Montpellier v Brive: Sell Montpellier hotshots at 56 with SPIN (Vincent Martin, Jan Serfontein, Yvan Relhac, Cobus Reinach)

SX go 49-53 with Tisseron rather than Serfontein. While the latter is apparently worth a little bit more I still think SPIN's line is too high. I'd pitch it closer to 49 and a 12% perceived edge is just about "interesting" enough to be posted in here.

I'm also a seller of their sub try minutes at 59 with either firm.

[harry_rag]

I've sold Muster hotshots at 37 v Cardiff. Rationale (along the usual lines) can be found here.

I think I'll just post any future bets in that thread as it seems fair to say that there's not enough interest to be posting them twice! The combination of spread bets and Rugby Union is, not unreasonably, a little bit niche! 

[harry_rag]

Back to posting the odd selection in here after finishing the Glory Hunt early (1,000 points profit from 50 bets in 43 days). 

Lyon v Gloucester: Sell Lyon hotshots at 71 with SPIN (Toby Arnold, Xavier Mignot, Pierre Louis Barassi, Noa Nakaitaci)

SX are 66-71 for the same 4 players so a "spread free" trade. I get a true value of 59 and a maximum value of 64. 71 looks too high too me, even 3 tries only makes for a small loss (4 points).

[harry_rag]

4 tries for the hotshots so a loss of 29 x stake from that bet.

[harry_rag]

Western Province v Griquas: Sell Western Province hotshots for 1 point at 63 with SPIN (Damian Willemse, Sergeal Petersen, Dan Du Plessis, Angelo Davids)

Six points lower elsewhere, I get a true value of 49.4 for a 21% edge and a maximum value of 54.1 which still offers a 14% edge. That's the only noteworthy bet for me in today's games.

Sell bets always come with a wealth warning but worth emphasising that after last night's eye watering loss of 156 x stake on the NFL! 

[harry_rag]

1 hotshots try for a make up of 25 points and a profit of 38 x stake.