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Delicate Kiss won at 5.09. Nice winner for us.

Todays selections are;
 

12:22 Warwick Galidermes
12:45 Newcastle Onward Route
14:55 Newcastle Maid O'Malley
15:17 Taunton Glajou
15:47 Taunton Mystic Court
17:30 Chelmsford Rockesbury
18:30 Chelmsford Nigel Nott
19:30 Chelmsford Scofflaw
20:00 Chelmsford Splash Of Verve
 
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Nothing yesterday; 4 great selections today to close out the week for us.   14:23 Uttoxetter Espion 16:35

We start the week with just the one selection today 15:55 Newcastle Dragons Will Rise  

Back today with two selections. We are backing for €100, place & back. 16:50 Leicester John Clare 17:40 Li


Positive day yesterday for us and it should have been better with Scofflaw trading into 1.10 only failing to win.

Todays selections are;
 

12:40 Cheltenham Tegerek
12:55 Bangor Lex Talionis
14:25 Cheltenham Storm Control
15:10 Bangor Minella Drama
15:25 Doncaster Bushypark
16:15 Southwell Luscifer
18:15 Southwell Little India
18:45 Southwell Liamba
19:15 Southwell Dark Side Prince
19:45 Southwell Jazz Legend
 
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Just wanted to give you all some stats to back up what we are at here & note two tweeks on the system.

Here's the results for this system (with the tweek we're about to implement included) over the recent years.

Please note that these results are all listed at Betfair SP and after a full discount of 5% for commission. (In the vast majority of cases people are getting 2% and in some cases 0% commission or using BOG, so these results below would be your worst case scenario profits wise).
 

Year Win Backs Place Backs
2016 127.26 3.97
2017 157.97 73.51
2018 -50.89 -33.30
2019 128.36 -17.49
2020 123.82 -26.62
Total 486.52 0.07


So we have 4 huge years profits with the Wins and one loss making year in the last 5 (for reference 2015 & 2014 we also in profit). The places over the last 5 years are now at breakeven and now we are going to use this info to tweek where we are at.

1. From now on the selections will need to have a minimum WIN Betfair SP of 5.0 to be backed. Any selection below this at the off will be ignored. So I'm backing selections to WIN with a BSP minimum of 5.0.

2. We are going to stop backing & recording the "places" in the interim. I will stay recording these results in the back ground and we will revisit this in 2021. No backs on the Place market for selections at all.

On this basis todays selections are;
 

12:20 LUDLOW Kakamora
13:45 NEWBURY Magic Of Light
14:10 LINGFIELD (A.W) Comeatchoo
14:45 LINGFIELD (A.W) Lady Pendragon
14:55 NEWBURY Atlantic Storm
16:00 KEMPTON (A.W) Touchwood
17:05 KEMPTON (A.W) Eagle One
17:35 KEMPTON (A.W) Shady McGee
18:05 KEMPTON (A.W) Delicate Kiss
18:35 KEMPTON (A.W) Tipperary Jack
20:05 KEMPTON (A.W) Combine

 

 
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2 hours ago, The Accountant said:

From now on the selections will need to have a minimum WIN Betfair SP of 5.0 to be backed. Any selection below this at the off will be ignored. So I'm backing selections to WIN with a BSP minimum of 5.0.

How does this work in practice? Would you have to wait until just before the off to back every selection so you could be sure it met the minimum price criteria or can you back the selections in advance but stipulate that the bet only stands if the criteria are met? Apologies if it's a dumb question, I'm mainly a sports bettor! Just wondered how one avoided backing the selections that are "too short".

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5 hours ago, harry_rag said:

How does this work in practice? Would you have to wait until just before the off to back every selection so you could be sure it met the minimum price criteria or can you back the selections in advance but stipulate that the bet only stands if the criteria are met? Apologies if it's a dumb question, I'm mainly a sports bettor! Just wondered how one avoided backing the selections that are "too short".

I have same problem of so prices occasionally drifting out of 'system' price... But it's breakeven out of system price so okay for me. Accountant what is lsp with new rules?

Edited by Wildgarden
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Hello, thank you for making contact and your interest in this.

It is actually quite straighforward, you select to back your selection at Betfair SP. There is then a "Set SP odds limit" box to tick on the Betfair SP section and you simply put 5.0 in the option then for what odds you want the "min" to be. The system is built/recorded using BSP so I can't comment about other exchanges/using BOG etc.

 

 

 

 

 

 

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There's some videos on youtube covering it for anyone that's having any issues.

Yesterday was very nearly an excellent start. We won €134 on the day anyway for the 5 horses at 5.0 BSP or above to Win but Comeatchoo traded from 12.53 into 1.17 only to be beaten by a neck in a very tight finish.

Win Bank +€3,955

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Here's todays selections; just to note again, we're backing to Win only where the BSP price is 5.0 or above.

 

13:05 EXETER Dock Road
14:15 SOUTHWELL (A.W) Arzaak
14:50 SOUTHWELL (A.W) Passional
15:15 EXETER Bogoss Du Perret
15:25 SOUTHWELL (A.W) Accrington Stanley
16:00 SOUTHWELL (A.W) Grimsthorpe Castle
16:35 SOUTHWELL (A.W) Notation
16:55 CHELMSFORD (A.W) Who Cares Wins
17:10 SOUTHWELL (A.W) Compass Point
17:45 SOUTHWELL (A.W) Pearl Of Qatar
19:00 CHELMSFORD (A.W) Red Verdon

 

 

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Tomorrow's selections.

11:55 SOUTHWELL (A.W) Liamba
12:55 SOUTHWELL (A.W) Stone Soldier
13:30 SOUTHWELL (A.W) Birkenhead
13:45 UTTOXETER Kilbrew Boy
14:20 UTTOXETER Saint Dalina
14:55 UTTOXETER City Never Sleeps
16:45 WOLVERHAMPTON (A.W) Trouser The Cash
17:15 WOLVERHAMPTON (A.W) Beauty Stone
18:15 WOLVERHAMPTON (A.W) Hafez
19:15 WOLVERHAMPTON (A.W) The Quiet Rebel
19:45 WOLVERHAMPTON (A.W) Singing The Blues
20:15 WOLVERHAMPTON (A.W) Truly Together

 

 

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12:30 LINGFIELD (A.W) Critical Thinking
13:00 LINGFIELD (A.W) Sweet Believer
13:30 LINGFIELD (A.W) Buckingham
14:25 NEWCASTLE (A.W) Captain Cooper
14:35 LINGFIELD (A.W) Patsy Fagan
14:45 MUSSELBURGH Overcourt
15:15 MUSSELBURGH Warriors Story
15:25 NEWCASTLE (A.W) Palazzo
15:55 NEWCASTLE (A.W) Irreverent
16:55 NEWCASTLE (A.W) Qaaraat

 

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Nothing yesterday despite having two selections trading into evens.

Todays selections are below; backing the Win only where the BSP price is 5.0 or above.

11:45 LINGFIELD (A.W) Vincenzo Coccotti
12:35 HUNTINGDON Mr Washington
13:35 HUNTINGDON Great Hall
13:55 SEDGEFIELD Cybalko
14:05 HUNTINGDON Prince Llywelyn
14:55 SEDGEFIELD Crackdeloust
15:15 LINGFIELD (A.W) Saucy Encore
     
     
     
     
     
     
     
     
     
     
 
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4 qualifiers yesterday but none came home.

Bank is +€2,605


We're going into a quieter period now for us a few days. There's no racing today, 24th or the 25th. There may be selections posted between now and the New Year but its unlikely. There are a lot of horses being specifically primed for this period and the results can be erratic so we tend to leave off until the first days of the New Year.

Thank you again for your interest & we'll be in touch again shortly.

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  • 2 weeks later...

Hi All,

A very Happy New Year to you all and best wishes for 2021.

We're back live from today and looking to replicate last years and the previous years great returns.

Just to recap, we looking to back for the Win only once the Betfair SP price is 5.0 or above. Any horse below this is being ignored. You can use the "set SP limit" at 5.0 on Betfair to ensure this is completed automatically for you.

12:40 LINGFIELD (A.W) Baba Reza
13:10 LINGFIELD (A.W) Ornate
13:40 LINGFIELD (A.W) Anisoptera
14:10 LINGFIELD (A.W) Too Friendly
14:25 FAKENHAM Perfect Moment
15:10 LINGFIELD (A.W) Cafe Sydney
15:50 WOLVERHAMPTON (A.W) Kyllukey
16:50 WOLVERHAMPTON (A.W) Inevitable Outcome
17:20 WOLVERHAMPTON (A.W) My Girl Maggie
17:50 WOLVERHAMPTON (A.W) Athmad
18:20 WOLVERHAMPTON (A.W) Odyssey Girl
19:20 WOLVERHAMPTON (A.W) Inaam
19:50 WOLVERHAMPTON (A.W) Revolutionary Man




 

     
     
     
     
     
     
     
     
     
     
 
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Nothing yesterday, all below our cutoff won but in the long term we're on the right side of this.

We looking to back for the Win only once the Betfair SP price is 5.0 or above. Any horse below this is being ignored. You can use the "set SP limit" at 5.0 on Betfair to ensure this is completed automatically for you.

12:55 LUDLOW Kilpin
13:40 LINGFIELD (A.W) Cappananty Con
14:10 LINGFIELD (A.W) Jennivere
14:25 LUDLOW Forgot To Ask
14:40 LINGFIELD (A.W) Ballydoyle
15:10 LINGFIELD (A.W) Passional
15:25 LUDLOW Volcano
15:55 LUDLOW Jaunty Freyja
16:10 WOLVERHAMPTON (A.W) Ballyare
16:40 WOLVERHAMPTON (A.W) Gavi Di Gavi
17:40 WOLVERHAMPTON (A.W) Sharrabang
18:10 WOLVERHAMPTON (A.W) Blue Moonrise
19:10 WOLVERHAMPTON (A.W) Fard

 

     
     
     
     
     
     
     
     
     
     
 
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I haven't calculated it fully as yet but I am reasonably sure that if 2% was applied as the commission that 2018 would be breakeven or also most likely be in profit. Certainly if BOG was used in that year it would be in profit, this would mean that all of the last 5 years would be in profit. Obviously this would equally mean that the other 4 years results would be considerable higher again.

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