The Accountant Posted July 14, 2022 Author Share Posted July 14, 2022 Back live - I've noted the above and will do a look back on results to date, to flat stakes, net of 2% commission. Will note the results here. In the mean time our bank closed at €792 after the 28th & 29th results. Next stake will be €23.77. Wildgarden and harry_rag 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Accountant Posted July 14, 2022 Author Share Posted July 14, 2022 07/14/2022 13:40 LEICESTER Kind Spirit 07/14/2022 14:10 LEICESTER Clipsham Gold 07/14/2022 14:20 HAMILTON Ustath 07/14/2022 14:30 CHEPSTOW Glamorous Breeze 07/14/2022 15:00 CHEPSTOW Connie's Rose 07/14/2022 16:00 CHEPSTOW Beryl Burton 07/14/2022 16:20 HAMILTON Crypto Quest 07/14/2022 16:50 HAMILTON Stroxx 07/14/2022 18:40 EPSOM Courageous Knight 07/14/2022 19:40 EPSOM Starshiba 07/14/2022 19:55 WORCESTER Mr Woody 07/14/2022 20:10 EPSOM Ideal Guest Wildgarden 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Accountant Posted July 15, 2022 Author Share Posted July 15, 2022 Very nice day yesterday. Bank closed back at €960. No selections for today/this evening; the weather is going to play a large part of picks for the next few days. Next stake will be €28.79 MCLARKE, alexcaruso808 and Wildgarden 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Accountant Posted July 19, 2022 Author Share Posted July 19, 2022 Profit to date across all selections to flat stake is 16.48 units, this is net of 2% commission, using BSP. MCLARKE and Wildgarden 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Accountant Posted July 20, 2022 Author Share Posted July 20, 2022 Would be interested in sharing all of the results to date with someone willing to look at staking variations to max profits the results to date. Feel free to contact me directly. Nothing overly aggressive, just looking to compound profits in a simple system that maybe has some variation of a stoploss in the same. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Accountant Posted July 20, 2022 Author Share Posted July 20, 2022 Todays selections 07/20/2022 15:05 CATTERICK Liangel Hope 07/20/2022 18:08 SANDOWN Pledge Of Honour 07/20/2022 18:25 LEICESTER Doomsday 07/20/2022 18:38 SANDOWN Mrs U S A 07/20/2022 18:55 LEICESTER Taaqat 07/20/2022 19:08 SANDOWN Autumn Festival 07/20/2022 19:25 LEICESTER Carrigillihy 07/20/2022 20:25 LEICESTER Misscall 07/20/2022 20:40 SANDOWN Happy Wildgarden 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MCLARKE Posted July 20, 2022 Share Posted July 20, 2022 2 hours ago, The Accountant said: Would be interested in sharing all of the results to date with someone willing to look at staking variations to max profits the results to date. Feel free to contact me directly. Nothing overly aggressive, just looking to compound profits in a simple system that maybe has some variation of a stoploss in the same. I've been betting for over 40 years and have never seen a staking plan that beats levels stakes. Wildgarden 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Torque Posted July 20, 2022 Share Posted July 20, 2022 36 minutes ago, MCLARKE said: I've been betting for over 40 years and have never seen a staking plan that beats levels stakes. That's interesting @MCLARKE I don't have as many years experience as you, but surely there are merits to kelly staking if you have some idea of the value of each bet. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MCLARKE Posted July 20, 2022 Share Posted July 20, 2022 23 minutes ago, Torque said: That's interesting @MCLARKE I don't have as many years experience as you, but surely there are merits to kelly staking if you have some idea of the value of each bet. There in lies the problem, it is very difficult to know the value of each bet, there is too much randomness. I have tried Kelly staking, making some very nice profits before being wiped out when the inevitable losing run comes along. Torque 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Yalwen Posted July 20, 2022 Share Posted July 20, 2022 I've been involved in gambling, on and off course, for even longer than McLarke and I would wholeheartedly agree with him. The problem that the originator is facing is not his profit - he is already making a level stake profit of +16 points, which is good - it is his expectations. His strike rate is ok, but could be better and he needs to focus on the number of losers that he backs. and the stakes that they carry. If he can do that, and I can, then he will see that level stakes or considered stakes is the only way to go. Money management is crucial and you only get grey hairs and problems with most, probably all, forms of staking plans especially those that depend on any form of retrieval. Of course, it goes without saying, that a solid and realistic bank roll is required and your betting pattern should never put the bank under severe pressure. MCLARKE and Torque 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
harry_rag Posted July 20, 2022 Share Posted July 20, 2022 I wouldn’t favour level stakes for my own betting simply because of the wide range of odds involved but I do tend to stake to achieve broadly the same profit from all bets (subject to what I can actually get on). It might be worth a simple comparison between level stakes, level returns and level profits. If anyone did a detailed analysis and came up with the “perfect” staking plan it might fall foul of what I believe is called back fitting, e.g. would have worked for what has happened so far but might not for what happens next. I agree with the notion (for most systems) that there might be more gain from time spent trimming off a few losing bets rather than over-finessing the approach to staking. Torque and MCLARKE 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Yalwen Posted July 20, 2022 Share Posted July 20, 2022 Harry, Clive Holt's staking plan is extremely logical. I've used it for years and the sense is apparent. harry_rag 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Torque Posted July 20, 2022 Share Posted July 20, 2022 2 hours ago, harry_rag said: I wouldn’t favour level stakes for my own betting simply because of the wide range of odds involved but I do tend to stake to achieve broadly the same profit from all bets (subject to what I can actually get on). It might be worth a simple comparison between level stakes, level returns and level profits. If anyone did a detailed analysis and came up with the “perfect” staking plan it might fall foul of what I believe is called back fitting, e.g. would have worked for what has happened so far but might not for what happens next. I agree with the notion (for most systems) that there might be more gain from time spent trimming off a few losing bets rather than over-finessing the approach to staking. Staking is an interesting topic of discussion that's for sure. From my perspective, I can't get on with level staking because by definition it suggests all bets are equal, when it's probably reasonable to suggest one even money bet is a better proposition than another and also for the reason @harry_rag suggests which is the counterintuitive nature of staking the same amount on an even money shot as something that's ten to one - clearly the ten to one shot is far less likely to land and so you're more likely to lose your stake, whilst the same stake at shorter odds is more likely to win but also return a smaller amount. I can't get on with level returns either, because although they mitigate against the higher probability of losing your stake the higher the odds go, again they treat all bets as equal in their utility. Kelly staking on the other hand, although difficult to implement, makes the most intuitive sense. It balances the perceived value of a bet against its risk which allows for higher stakes at higher odds and also smaller stakes at smaller odds, as well as the much more accepted practice of higher stakes at smaller odds and smaller stakes at higher odds. harry_rag 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MCLARKE Posted July 20, 2022 Share Posted July 20, 2022 2 hours ago, harry_rag said: I wouldn’t favour level stakes for my own betting simply because of the wide range of odds involved but I do tend to stake to achieve broadly the same profit from all bets (subject to what I can actually get on). It might be worth a simple comparison between level stakes, level returns and level profits. I may 8 minutes ago, Torque said: Staking is an interesting topic of discussion that's for sure. From my perspective, I can't get on with level staking because by definition it suggests all bets are equal, when it's probably reasonable to suggest one even money bet is a better proposition than another and also for the reason @harry_rag suggests which is the counterintuitive nature of staking the same amount on an even money shot as something that's ten to one - clearly the ten to one shot is far less likely to land and so you're more likely to lose your stake, whilst the same stake at shorter odds is more likely to win but also return a smaller amount. I can't get on with level returns either, because although they mitigate against the higher probability of losing your stake the higher the odds go, again they treat all bets as equal in their utility. Kelly staking on the other hand, although difficult to implement, makes the most intuitive sense. It balances the perceived value of a bet against its risk which allows for higher stakes at higher odds and also smaller stakes at smaller odds, as well as the much more accepted practice of higher stakes at smaller odds and smaller stakes at higher odds. I was probably a bit misleading with my claim about level stakes, I do in fact mean proportional stakes or level returns. This is not a staking plan as such. I agree with the comment that some bets are better "value" than others, the problem is I've always found it difficult to determine this other than retrospectively. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
harry_rag Posted July 20, 2022 Share Posted July 20, 2022 Often in my area of betting I see a bet which looks like a candidate for maximum stakes only to find that the bookie’s idea of maximum stake is 25p. I know that’s another issue but it’s frustrating when they just price up lazily safe in the knowledge they will restrict any vaguely sharp action rather than put a bit more effort into the pricing and take a half decent bet. That added degree of uncertainty means I can’t really be too rigid about my approach to staking. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Accountant Posted July 21, 2022 Author Share Posted July 21, 2022 Small win yesterday - will get to read the above thread later - thanks to all for posting. Bank is €996; stake is €29.87 Here's todays selections; 07/21/2022 14:10 WORCESTER Kolisi 07/21/2022 14:25 SANDOWN Tagline 07/21/2022 14:35 YARMOUTH Ana Hadi 07/21/2022 15:10 YARMOUTH Badr 07/21/2022 15:20 WORCESTER Little Jessture 07/21/2022 15:20 WORCESTER Little Jessture 07/21/2022 16:20 YARMOUTH Papa Cocktail 07/21/2022 16:52 YARMOUTH Wrath Of Hector 07/21/2022 19:38 NEWBURY Puffable 07/21/2022 19:55 DONCASTER Charles St 07/21/2022 20:08 NEWBURY Port Noir 07/21/2022 20:55 DONCASTER Willem Twee Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Accountant Posted July 21, 2022 Author Share Posted July 21, 2022 If I get a window of time I'll try and look at the results to date from a fixed profit view rather than a fixed stake Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MCLARKE Posted July 21, 2022 Share Posted July 21, 2022 17 hours ago, harry_rag said: Often in my area of betting I see a bet which looks like a candidate for maximum stakes only to find that the bookie’s idea of maximum stake is 25p. I know that’s another issue but it’s frustrating when they just price up lazily safe in the knowledge they will restrict any vaguely sharp action rather than put a bit more effort into the pricing and take a half decent bet. That added degree of uncertainty means I can’t really be too rigid about my approach to staking. Apart from some special offers I very rarely bet with the bookies these days, like @The Accountantnearly all my betting is on the exchanges. Do people who bet with the bookmakes compare their returns with BSP ? Wildgarden 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Yalwen Posted July 21, 2022 Share Posted July 21, 2022 If you're sharp enough the value can be had with the bookmakers. The trouble then is with keeping your Accounts. These guys are constantly looking for anyone who may be a shrewd backer and if you take the value you'll soon be banned. Their sophisticated software flags up winners and even losers who constantly take value. Look at the profits made by the leading bookmakers - that tells its own story. They only want and encourage losers. Unfortunately they have made it impossible for clever backers to hold on to regular accounts so, it's obvious, the exchanges, who only want your commission, is the way we are all being forced to go. Torque 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Accountant Posted July 25, 2022 Author Share Posted July 25, 2022 I don't see the issue with exchanges; in the main, in my experience at least, the net of commission prices are higher than the bookmakers, especially so where horse selected is not in the top 3 betting for that race. MCLARKE 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Accountant Posted July 25, 2022 Author Share Posted July 25, 2022 Bank is €716 after Friday. 07/25/2022 14:25 NEWTON ABBOT Bucko's Boy 07/25/2022 15:00 NEWTON ABBOT Jony Max 07/25/2022 15:55 AYR Yaaser 07/25/2022 18:00 WINDSOR Al Dasim 07/25/2022 18:50 FFOS LAS Red Walls 07/25/2022 19:35 WINDSOR Bad Company 07/25/2022 20:30 FFOS LAS Hurricane Helen Stake is €21.49 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Accountant Posted July 25, 2022 Author Share Posted July 25, 2022 On 7/20/2022 at 3:40 PM, Yalwen said: The problem that the originator is facing is not his profit - he is already making a level stake profit of +16 points, which is good - it is his expectations. His strike rate is ok, but could be better and he needs to focus on the number of losers that he backs I need to focus on the number of losers I back ..... so the key for making more profit is backing less losers ..... thanks for telling me that Yalwen. So by that rationale you think I am looking to back horses daily with real money that I think have no realistic value/probability of winning - so I just need to focus on the horses I think can win/have value to win, as opposed to doing what I'm doing in your view. You might put a link up to your "only winners" thread please and I'll start to follow it. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Accountant Posted July 25, 2022 Author Share Posted July 25, 2022 Just FYI; staking to win €100 per selection (actually €98, being €100 - 2% commission) to last Friday for all selections to date is a profit of €1,415.87. 3 winners so far today from 4 selections; albeit one of those was heavy odds on. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Yalwen Posted July 25, 2022 Share Posted July 25, 2022 Ha, ha! You’re a very funny person. You make me smile, anyway. Good luck with your selections. May they all be winners. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Accountant Posted July 26, 2022 Author Share Posted July 26, 2022 @ Yalwen ? Here's todays picks; Bank is €716, stake is €21.49 07/26/2022 13:40 YARMOUTH Spanish Mane 07/26/2022 17:26 BEVERLEY Sir Maxi 07/26/2022 17:30 WORCESTER Ben Buie 07/26/2022 17:30 WORCESTER Chess Player 07/26/2022 18:00 WORCESTER Leapaway 07/26/2022 18:50 PERTH Ballyquin Bay 07/26/2022 20:00 PERTH Keepthefaithinme 07/26/2022 20:10 WORCESTER Annual Review 07/26/2022 20:30 PERTH Raddle And Hum 07/26/2022 21:00 PERTH Leopolds Rock Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Accountant Posted July 28, 2022 Author Share Posted July 28, 2022 Hi All, Bank is €652 07/28/2022 14:05 NOTTINGHAM Willard Creek 07/28/2022 14:32 STRATFORD Dicktate 07/28/2022 17:55 EPSOM Silastar 07/28/2022 18:15 SALISBURY Point Louise 07/28/2022 18:45 SALISBURY Batal Dubai 07/28/2022 19:00 EPSOM Greased Lightning 07/28/2022 19:15 SALISBURY Mehme 07/28/2022 19:30 EPSOM Queen Of Burgundy 07/28/2022 20:00 EPSOM Maysong Stake is €19.57 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Accountant Posted July 29, 2022 Author Share Posted July 29, 2022 Nice day yesterday; bank moves back to €723. 07/29/2022 18:10 MUSSELBURGH Graces Quest 07/29/2022 18:20 NEWMARKET (JULY) Just A Tad 07/29/2022 18:45 MUSSELBURGH Howyadoin 07/29/2022 19:20 MUSSELBURGH Let's Go Hugo 07/29/2022 20:00 NEWMARKET (JULY) Nizaaka 07/29/2022 20:20 MUSSELBURGH Call Me Ginger Stake is €21.69. alexcaruso808 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Accountant Posted July 29, 2022 Author Share Posted July 29, 2022 Here's Saturdays picks also; 07/30/2022 13:55 NEWMARKET (JULY) Fox Degree 07/30/2022 14:06 THIRSK Harry Brown 07/30/2022 14:06 THIRSK Overnight Oats 07/30/2022 14:25 NEWMARKET (JULY) Rose Of Kildare 07/30/2022 15:35 NEWMARKET (JULY) Cuban Breeze 07/30/2022 16:20 THIRSK Flyawaydream 07/30/2022 17:30 THIRSK On The River 07/30/2022 17:45 HAMILTON Jm Jungle 07/30/2022 18:20 HAMILTON Only Spoofing 07/30/2022 20:00 HAMILTON Under Fox 07/30/2022 20:30 HAMILTON Cosa Sara 07/30/2022 21:00 HAMILTON Temper Trap alexcaruso808 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Accountant Posted August 1, 2022 Author Share Posted August 1, 2022 Some near near misses over Friday & Saturday. incl one on Saturday at 10.18. Bank is €560. 08/01/2022 14:18 AYR Water Of Leith 08/01/2022 14:55 RIPON Storm Chaser 08/01/2022 15:25 RIPON Hyperfocus 08/01/2022 15:48 AYR Retirement Beckons 08/01/2022 16:55 CARLISLE Clotherholme 08/01/2022 17:30 CARLISLE Reclaim Victory 08/01/2022 20:45 CARLISLE Iris Dancer Stake is €16.80 Wildgarden and alexcaruso808 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Accountant Posted August 2, 2022 Author Share Posted August 2, 2022 This Cycle comes to a close with a loss of €521. Net position to date after 5 cycles is +€382 (starting with an opening stake each cycle of €30) Just FYI Fixed level stake backs of €100, net of 2% commission is -€379 Fixed level Win staking to win €98 (€100 - 2% commission) per selection is +€884 All using Betfair SP Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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