Jump to content
** March Poker League Result : =1st Bridscott, =1st Like2Fish, 3rd avongirl **
** Cheltenham Tipster Competition Result : 1st Old codger, 2nd sirspread, 3rd Bathtime For Rupert **

Win Backing System


Recommended Posts

Nice days results again yesterday. Just under 10pts profit for the week.

Todays selections are below;

21 May 2021 16:45 BATH Grey Galleon
21 May 2021 16:45 BATH Newyorkstateofmind
21 May 2021 17:40 WORCESTER Imperial Acolyte
21 May 2021 18:20 CATTERICK Kodimoor
21 May 2021 18:50 CATTERICK Eldelbar
21 May 2021 19:50 CATTERICK Ehrmann
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Another great run yesterday by Thaayer, just beaten by a neck off 14.78, disappointing not to close it out.

Todays selections are below;

26 May 2021 14:50 BEVERLEY Midnite Bride
26 May 2021 15:10 HAMILTON Blistering Barney
26 May 2021 16:20 BEVERLEY Casilli
26 May 2021 17:10 HAMILTON Gunnerside
26 May 2021 17:50 WOLVERHAMPTON (A.W) Sir Rodneyredblood
26 May 2021 20:30 WARWICK Hillview
26 May 2021 20:50 WOLVERHAMPTON (A.W) International Law
 
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Hi All,
 
Win backs for today are below.

Regarding Friday; Afandem ran into 1.08 but was beaten off an SP of 6.48 which was very disappointing. Dashing Dick also traded in just 1.71, which was 11% of BSP.

Todays selections are below;
 

31 May 2021 14:05 HUNTINGDON Valseur Du Granval
31 May 2021 14:25 CARTMEL Liffeydale Dreamer
31 May 2021 14:35 CHELMSFORD (A.W) Lets Go Lucky
31 May 2021 15:10 CHELMSFORD (A.W) Woke Media
31 May 2021 15:15 HUNTINGDON Shanroe Tic Tec
31 May 2021 16:27 WINDSOR Typical Man
31 May 2021 16:50 CHELMSFORD (A.W) Irish Times
31 May 2021 17:25 CHELMSFORD (A.W) Velvet Vista
31 May 2021 17:55 CHELMSFORD (A.W) Mehmo
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Hi All,

Small profit yesterday but May was a month of "just misses" with 7 horses trading into below 1.5 at prices of 4.8, 3.55, 2.21, 3.58, 4.3, 6.48 & 4.1 without getting over the line 1st.

Todays selections are below;

1 Jun 2021 14:35 LEICESTER Accrington Stanley
1 Jun 2021 15:10 LEICESTER Red October
1 Jun 2021 16:05 REDCAR Berry Edge
Link to comment
Share on other sites

We'd 2 nice winners on Wednesday. Todays selections are below; none next Monday but back 100% then from Tuesday.

Todays selections are below;

4 Jun 2021 17:20 CATTERICK Lukoutoldmakezebak
4 Jun 2021 17:53 DONCASTER Kentuckyconnection
4 Jun 2021 19:10 BATH Buckingham
4 Jun 2021 19:40 BATH Bay Watch
4 Jun 2021 20:00 GOODWOOD Dawndiva
4 Jun 2021 20:10 BATH Khatwah
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Hi All,

Nice winner with Buckingham on Friday at 9.38.

Todays selections are below;

8 Jun 2021 13:00 SALISBURY Cashew
8 Jun 2021 13:45 WOLVERHAMPTON (A.W) Lets Go Lucky
8 Jun 2021 14:10 SALISBURY Walls Of Kano
8 Jun 2021 14:20 WOLVERHAMPTON (A.W) Rockesbury
8 Jun 2021 15:10 SOUTHWELL Eden Collonges
8 Jun 2021 18:15 AYR Ayr Poet
8 Jun 2021 18:30 WETHERBY Club Wexford
wah
Link to comment
Share on other sites

I have the results since January 1 for this system and, to be honest, they don't make pretty reading.

The originator of the thread has posted regularly here and I don't think it would be fair of me to pre-empt him by answering your question..

Seven losers today, though does not help. I made the decision at the end of May to stop backing these, not solely because of the long losing runs, but because I found it uncomfortable for me to keep laying money down when I didn't know the reasons that I was backing the horse. 

Maybe now that I have stopped backing them they will start to win again.

Here's hoping and thanks for the regular input Accountant.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Hi All, interesting comments & thanks for posting.

With regards to " I didn't know the reasons that I was backing the horse " I fully take that on board but in reality if the horses were winning you would not be asking this question - you are now questioning the logic solely due to the poorer form of late.

The system is down 41 units to flat stakes since 1 Jan 2021 up to and including yesterday. From August to December 2020 the system was up 48.6 units. So the assumption is; in 2020 I'm a genius and in 2021 I'm a chancer.

In reality the system is showing the following results for the last few years; these are Win Backs, profits are shown at Betfair SP, less 2% commission.

2017 +236 pts

2018 +64 pts

2019 +169 pts

2020 +231 pts

The annual strike rate is consistent;

2017 to 2020 reads 24%, 23%, 24%, 28%

2021 is not hugely off this s/rate but the prices obtained have been less - I would expect this to turn, profits to come in, as in previous years but there is no guarantee of this naturally.

I have no idea how many are following this thread; how many are tracking the runners, how many are backing etc but if there is no demand to stay posting here then I have no issue ceasing as it all takes my time.

Here's todays selection for anyone interested.

9 Jun 2021 14:45 FONTWELL Mystic Court

 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

With reference to the Place Backing system; I'll post todays selections here today. There is a max price of 20.0 on the BSP for selections. Just to note that selections above this are profitable but there are longer losing runs which can be off putting but we have had places come in at 65.0, 44.0 and we had one at 29.93 as recently as yesterday (the one that placed at 65.0 actually won at 636.48).

You'll note there are more than one selection in most races so we end up with a lot of selections daily. For those interested in "how the selections are made" its based around trainers form, then its class specific, course specific, and race type specific. 

I recommend a SMALL stake increase after a losing day, so if its €10 place back today per selection and its a losing day, we'd move to something like €10.50 or €11 tomorrow.

10 Jun 2021 13:00 NOTTINGHAM Global Romance
     
10 Jun 2021 13:15 NEWBURY Single Minded
     
10 Jun 2021 13:35 NOTTINGHAM Harry Haafhd
10 Jun 2021 13:35 NOTTINGHAM Moonlit Cloud
10 Jun 2021 13:35 NOTTINGHAM Totally Charming
     
10 Jun 2021 13:45 NEWBURY Seattle Rock
10 Jun 2021 13:45 NEWBURY Thefastnthecurious
     
10 Jun 2021 14:20 NEWBURY Grey Sonata
     
10 Jun 2021 14:35 YARMOUTH Aylesford
10 Jun 2021 14:35 YARMOUTH Show Yourself
10 Jun 2021 14:35 YARMOUTH Sir Gregory
     
10 Jun 2021 16:55 YARMOUTH Amalfi Salsa
     
10 Jun 2021 17:40 UTTOXETER Sol Plum Creek
     
10 Jun 2021 18:00 HAYDOCK Corinthiano
     
10 Jun 2021 19:00 HAYDOCK King Of Gold
10 Jun 2021 19:00 HAYDOCK Mr Professor
     
10 Jun 2021 20:40 UTTOXETER Motherslosttheplot
10 Jun 2021 20:40 UTTOXETER Pollypockett
10 Jun 2021 20:40 UTTOXETER Pop Mistress
10 Jun 2021 20:40 UTTOXETER Rachel Louise
10 Jun 2021 20:40 UTTOXETER Sporting Scopey

 

 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Here's todays PLACE BACKS

11 Jun 2021 12:30 SANDOWN Hi Hoh Tonto
11 Jun 2021 12:30 SANDOWN Mojomaker
     
11 Jun 2021 13:00 SANDOWN Borntobealeader
11 Jun 2021 13:00 SANDOWN Naboo
     
11 Jun 2021 13:35 SANDOWN Coul Universe
11 Jun 2021 13:35 SANDOWN Dashing To You
     
11 Jun 2021 14:55 YORK All In Aladdin
11 Jun 2021 14:55 YORK Do It Today
11 Jun 2021 14:55 YORK Golden Gal
11 Jun 2021 14:55 YORK Kenyan Commander
11 Jun 2021 14:55 YORK On The Hook
11 Jun 2021 14:55 YORK Stardust Gambler
11 Jun 2021 14:55 YORK The Grey Lass
11 Jun 2021 14:55 YORK Vaxholm
     
11 Jun 2021 17:30 NEWTON ABBOT Nostalgica
     
11 Jun 2021 18:15 AINTREE Spanish Hustle
     
11 Jun 2021 19:35 GOODWOOD Banshee
11 Jun 2021 19:35 GOODWOOD Daysleeper
11 Jun 2021 19:35 GOODWOOD Divining
11 Jun 2021 19:35 GOODWOOD Roystan Girl
11 Jun 2021 19:35 GOODWOOD Zain Claudette
     
11 Jun 2021 20:20 NEWTON ABBOT Ballymoy
11 Jun 2021 20:20 NEWTON ABBOT Premier D'troice
     
11 Jun 2021 20:50 NEWTON ABBOT Bluffmeifyoucan
11 Jun 2021 20:50 NEWTON ABBOT Holerday Ridge
 
Link to comment
Share on other sites

18 minutes ago, The Accountant said:

18 pts profit on the Place Backs yesterday and the Win Back came in also

i had a lot more profit than that - skipped the smaller odds and and went for the bigger ones and had better prices than bsp maybe something to consider.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

That’s great for you but I’m recording results that people can actually achieve; hence using BSP. Not very fair for me to record say a 19.0 place win when the BSP is 12. There’s pure manipulation of results widespread in this business and it disgusts me. Win or lose the results prices recorded are at BSP and 9/10 that is to the detriment of the results overall. I’m glad you’d a great day though. 
 

If anyone wants these selections emailed to them daily, just drop an email to 

[email protected] 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Join the conversation

You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.
Note: Your post will require moderator approval before it will be visible.

Guest
Reply to this topic...

×   Pasted as rich text.   Paste as plain text instead

  Only 75 emoji are allowed.

×   Your link has been automatically embedded.   Display as a link instead

×   Your previous content has been restored.   Clear editor

×   You cannot paste images directly. Upload or insert images from URL.

×
×
  • Create New...