harry_rag Posted September 13, 2020 Share Posted September 13, 2020 In the spirit of social distancing I'll have my own dedicated thread as well! It makes sense to stick these all in one thread so I can track P/L (probably L) as the season progresses. Also, if I jack it in part way through then the thread can fade into obscurity accordingly. I'm probably so ignorant about this sport that the best advice would be "don't place any bets on it" but I do enjoy a tilt at the anytime TD scorer market using my methodology for goal and tryscorers. These are my week one selections. Chicago @ Detroit: 1 point on Montgomery at 9/4 888 Green Bay @ Minnesota: 1 point on Jones at 6/5 Hills Tampa Bay @ New Orleans: 1 point on Cook at 23/10 PP Sportwetten 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
harry_rag Posted September 14, 2020 Author Share Posted September 14, 2020 1 from 3 yesterday and, as it was Jones at 6/5, a small loss. Two on "today's" action. Pittsburgh @ NY Giants: 1 point on Conner at evens 365 Tennessee @ Denver: 1 point on Lindsay at 4.5 on BF (fine at 16/5 PP) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
harry_rag Posted September 15, 2020 Author Share Posted September 15, 2020 Not exactly off to a flier with 1 from 5. 5 points returns 2.2 for a loss of 2.8 points and an ROI of -56%. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
harry_rag Posted September 17, 2020 Author Share Posted September 17, 2020 Have to be careful where we post now with all these similarly titled threads! It's a shame we haven't got a University stats prof posting his selections as well but no sign of one anywhere! 3 plays for me in the week 2 curtain raiser. Cincinnati @ Cleveland: 1 point each on Hunt at 2/1 PP, Green at 11/4 PP* and Boyd at 3/1 888 * Green would be a bet at 12/5 with 888 but available at the better price as a "Power Price" with (obviously) PP. Sportwetten 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
harry_rag Posted September 20, 2020 Author Share Posted September 20, 2020 Studying right up to the start this week! 3 in the 6:00 games, all to 1 point stake. Atlanta @ Dallas: Gurley at 6/5 Hills LA Rams @ Philadelphia: Scott at 13/5 PP Minnesota @ Indianapolis: Thielen at 6/4 PP Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
harry_rag Posted September 20, 2020 Author Share Posted September 20, 2020 4 bets all in 1 game for the next batch, Baltimore @ Houston: 1 point each on Watson at 3.75 on BF and Dobbins at 11/4 PP 0.5 point each on Snead at 11/2 888 and Atkins at 9 on BF Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
harry_rag Posted September 21, 2020 Author Share Posted September 21, 2020 2 out of 3 on Thursday followed by 0 from 7 yesterday! Just one in the final game of the weekend, taking a chance on a player with an injury ? against him. New Orleans @ Las Vegas: 1 point on Ruggs at 11/4 PP Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
harry_rag Posted September 22, 2020 Author Share Posted September 22, 2020 2 from 11 this weekend means this is starting to have the faint whiff of being a loss making vanity project! 10 points returns 7 for a 3 point loss. Overall record is 3 winners from 16, 15 points returns 9.2 for a 5.8 point loss and an ROI of -38.67% Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
harry_rag Posted September 24, 2020 Author Share Posted September 24, 2020 Miami @ Jacksonville: 1 point on Eifert at 18/5 with Lads (7/2 without boost) Made the shortlist when I thought best price was 11/4 but was going to swerve. Appeals at the other side of 3/1. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
harry_rag Posted September 27, 2020 Author Share Posted September 27, 2020 Houston @ Pittsburgh: 1 point each on Conner 7/5 and Watson 3/1, both 888 Las Vegas @ New England: 1 point on Harry at 23/10 PP LA Rams at Buffalo: 1 point on Higbee at 13/5 888 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
harry_rag Posted September 29, 2020 Author Share Posted September 29, 2020 Another poor week with 1 (Conner) from 5. 5 points returns 2.4 for a 2.6 point loss. Overall record is 4 winners from 21, 20 points returns 11.6 for an 8.4 point loss and an ROI of -42% I'll set a couple of stop-losses on this endeavour; I'll jack it in if losses hit 20 points or ROI is worse than -50%. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
harry_rag Posted October 5, 2020 Author Share Posted October 5, 2020 Had most of this weekend off in terms of these bets as, frankly, there was just too much other stuff to bet on that I didn't really have the time or inclination to put the study in. I've also reached the unsurprising conclusion that it's probably easier to make money backing the "obvious" players NOT to score by selling their TD minutes on the spreads but that's another subject. 2 bets that I like for tonight's game> New England at Kansas: 1 point each on Watkins at 3/1 with 888 and White at 23/10 with PP. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
harry_rag Posted October 6, 2020 Author Share Posted October 6, 2020 No joy with either of those two. Overall record is 4 winners from 23, 22 points returns 11.6 for an 10.4 point loss and an ROI of -47.27% Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
harry_rag Posted October 8, 2020 Author Share Posted October 8, 2020 One for tonight's game, Tampa Bay at Chicago: 1 point on Graham at 16/5 PP. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
harry_rag Posted October 11, 2020 Author Share Posted October 11, 2020 Last bet won (should be heralded by trumpets, the rarity of winners on this thread)! Four for tonight. Jacksonville @ Houston: 1 point each on Watson at 2/1 PP and Fells at 11/4 888 Miami @ San Francisco: 1 point on Howard at 6/1 NY Giants at Dallas: 1 point on Prescott at 11/4 Skybet Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
harry_rag Posted October 12, 2020 Author Share Posted October 12, 2020 3 out of 4 so far this week (Howard void and Watson the only loser). A few in the LA Chargers @ New Orleans game. 1 point on Kelley at 6/4 Fred I point on Henry at 9/4 Hills 1 point on Murray at 23/10 PP 0.5 point on Kamara and Henry both to score a TD at 9/2 Hills 1 point on Kamara to score 2+ TD at 10/3 Hills Those last 2 are boosts/"Power Prices" that just get the bets over the value line for me. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
harry_rag Posted October 13, 2020 Author Share Posted October 13, 2020 Henry the only winner last night but will be a profitable weekend however the final selection fares. Buffalo at Tennessee: 1 point on Beasley to score a TD at 16/5 Lads Fine at 31/10 without applying a price boost, the next best price is 9/4 Hills, 2s or less everywhere else. I've actually split my stake across that bet and a buy of his TD minutes at 9 with SPIN, which I make similar value. SX go 10-13 which is more in line with the rest of the fixed odds market. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
harry_rag Posted October 14, 2020 Author Share Posted October 14, 2020 Finished with a loser so 5 winners from 10 bets this week. Overall record is 9 winners from 33, 31.5 points returns 26.55 for a 4.95 point loss and an ROI of -15.71% Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
harry_rag Posted October 18, 2020 Author Share Posted October 18, 2020 Bets in the 6:00 games. Baltimore @ Philadelphia: 1 point on Sanders at 7/5 PP Chicago @ Carolina: 1 point on Moore at 9/4 and 0.5 point on Patterson at 11/2, both 888 Denver @ New England: 1 point on Harry at 23/10 and 1 point on Patrick at 18/5, both Lads Houston @ Tennessee: 1 point on Fuller at 6/4 365 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
harry_rag Posted October 19, 2020 Author Share Posted October 19, 2020 Fuller the only winner so far. 2 more to see the week out. Kansas at Buffalo: 1 point each on Beasley at 11/4 Hills and Hardman at 21/10 888 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
harry_rag Posted October 20, 2020 Author Share Posted October 20, 2020 Beasley wins so 2 from 8 this week and a 1.25 point loss. Overall record is 11 winners from 41, 39 points returns 32.8 for a 6.2 point loss and an ROI of -15.9% Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
harry_rag Posted October 22, 2020 Author Share Posted October 22, 2020 New York Giants @ Philadelphia: 1 point on Jackson at 11/4 with Lads Ok at 13/5 without a boost and you may get better on the exchanges. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
harry_rag Posted October 25, 2020 Author Share Posted October 25, 2020 No joy with the last bet, 2 selections is the 5:00 games. Green Bay @ Houston: 1 point on Fells at 5/2 with Hills Cleveland @ Cincinnati: 0.5 point on Bryant at 5/1 with Hills Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
harry_rag Posted October 25, 2020 Author Share Posted October 25, 2020 Just one more for later. Kansas @ Denver: 1 point on Hardman at 4/1 PP Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
harry_rag Posted October 26, 2020 Author Share Posted October 26, 2020 Bryant the only winner from 4 bets this week so a small loss of half a point. Overall record is 12 winners from 45, 42.5 points returns 35.8 for a 6.7 point loss and an ROI of -15.76% Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
harry_rag Posted October 26, 2020 Author Share Posted October 26, 2020 Forgot there was still one game to go! Three selections in the Chicago @ LA Rams game: 1 point each on Kupp at 7/4, Graham at 7/2 and Higbee at 15/4. First two with PP and the other 888. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
harry_rag Posted October 27, 2020 Author Share Posted October 27, 2020 2 losers and a non-runner last night so the weekly record ends up as 1 from 6 and -2.5 points. Overall record is 12 winners from 47, 44.5 points returns 35.8 for a 8.7 point loss and an ROI of -19.55% Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
harry_rag Posted October 29, 2020 Author Share Posted October 29, 2020 Atlanta @ Carolina: 1 point each on Anderson, Moore and Samuel for the Panthers. All with 888 at odds of 6/4, 33/20 and 3/1 respectively. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
harry_rag Posted November 1, 2020 Author Share Posted November 1, 2020 5 in the early games, all 1 point each. Burton (indianapolis) 3/1 888 Parker (Miami) 12/5 888 Henderson (LA Rams) 13/10 PP Jefferson (Minnesota) 19/10 888 Beasley (Buffalo) 16/5 PP Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
harry_rag Posted November 1, 2020 Author Share Posted November 1, 2020 3 in the later games, again 1 point each. McKinnon (San Francisco) 11/5 PP Cooper (Dallas) 10/3 PP Buy Dissly TD minutes at 5 SX (call it a buy at 0.2 of a point for one point risked - narrowly preferred to 5/1 anytime) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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