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HR's NFL Selections (TD scorers)


harry_rag
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In the spirit of social distancing I'll have my own dedicated thread as well! ;) It makes sense to stick these all in one thread so I can track P/L (probably L) as the season progresses. Also, if I jack it in part way through then the thread can fade into obscurity accordingly. I'm probably so ignorant about this sport that the best advice would be "don't place any bets on it" but I do enjoy a tilt at the anytime TD scorer market using my methodology for goal and tryscorers. These are my week one selections.

Chicago @ Detroit: 1 point on Montgomery at 9/4 888

Green Bay @ Minnesota: 1 point on Jones at 6/5 Hills

Tampa Bay @ New Orleans: 1 point on Cook at 23/10 PP

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Have to be careful where we post now with all these similarly titled threads! It's a shame we haven't got a University stats prof posting his selections as well but no sign of one anywhere! ;)

3 plays for me in the week 2 curtain raiser.

Cincinnati @ Cleveland: 1 point each on Hunt at 2/1 PP, Green at 11/4 PP* and Boyd at 3/1 888

* Green would be a bet at 12/5 with 888 but available at the better price as a "Power Price" with (obviously) PP.

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Another poor week with 1 (Conner) from 5. 5 points returns 2.4 for a 2.6 point loss. Overall record is 4 winners from 21, 20 points returns 11.6 for an 8.4 point loss and an ROI of -42%

I'll set a couple of stop-losses on this endeavour; I'll jack it in if losses hit 20 points or ROI is worse than -50%.

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Had most of this weekend off in terms of these bets as, frankly, there was just too much other stuff to bet on that I didn't really have the time or inclination to put the study in. I've also reached the unsurprising conclusion that it's probably easier to make money backing the "obvious" players NOT to score by selling their TD minutes on the spreads but that's another subject. 2 bets that I like for tonight's game>

New England at Kansas: 1 point each on Watkins at 3/1 with 888 and White at 23/10 with PP.

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3 out of 4 so far this week (Howard void and Watson the only loser). A few in the LA Chargers @ New Orleans game.

1 point on Kelley at 6/4 Fred

I point on Henry at 9/4 Hills

1 point on Murray at 23/10 PP

0.5 point on Kamara and Henry both to score a TD at 9/2 Hills

1 point on Kamara to score 2+ TD at 10/3 Hills

Those last 2 are boosts/"Power Prices" that just get the bets over the value line for me.

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Henry the only winner last night but will be a profitable weekend however the final selection fares.

Buffalo at Tennessee: 1 point on Beasley to score a TD at 16/5 Lads 

Fine at 31/10 without applying a price boost, the next best price is 9/4 Hills, 2s or less everywhere else. I've actually split my stake across that bet and a buy of his TD minutes at 9 with SPIN, which I make similar value. SX go 10-13 which is more in line with the rest of the fixed odds market.

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Bets in the 6:00 games.

Baltimore @ Philadelphia: 1 point on Sanders at 7/5 PP

Chicago @ Carolina: 1 point on Moore at 9/4 and 0.5 point on Patterson at 11/2, both 888

Denver @ New England: 1 point on Harry at 23/10 and 1 point on Patrick at 18/5, both Lads

Houston @ Tennessee: 1 point on Fuller at 6/4 365

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