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Tennis Tips - September 12 - September 27


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I really agree on this one but I'll be biting on Marketa Vondrousovas performance so I'm taking her at 2.5 vs her countrywoman Karolina Pliskova who really aint anything close to a claycourt specialis

Just a bit of additional info to boost the Kovinic campaign. Yesterday Mertens withdrew from the doubles for reasons she gave as sickness. She also had a medical timeout yesterday that had to do with

Thanks a lot! I've been following this forum for a while now, I've read so many great analysises, and found so many many value bets, thanks to all the people posting here!

Sandgren - Albot,

Albot to take a set -1.62 / Albot to win : 2.80 at betfair

I wouldn't comment too much on this one, Before the match I expected a 1.66-2.20 pair or something like this. I just personally find the odds exaggerated, Albot played a more than decent tennis in all of his last games.

 

Edit: I did not see the match, Albot lost pretty clearly. Next

Edited by rodxuabht
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1 hour ago, rodxuabht said:

Shapovalov - Schwartzman 

I'm not biting on Schwartzman's performance, Nadal played awkwardly bad, also Diego had maybe one of those days. I don't think it will be the case today.

This is a 50-50% match at most, so I'm taking the value bet here on Shapo for 2.3.

I really agree on this one but I'll be biting on Marketa Vondrousovas performance so I'm taking her at 2.5 vs her countrywoman Karolina Pliskova who really aint anything close to a claycourt specialist even though she's won some clayfinals but Marketa is my pick.

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3 hours ago, rodxuabht said:

Shapovalov - Schwartzman 

I'm not biting on Schwartzman's performance, Nadal played awkwardly bad, also Diego had maybe one of those days. I don't think it will be the case today.

This is a 50-50% match at most, so I'm taking the value bet here on Shapo for 2.3.

Value is definitely on Shapo. Nadal was scary bad yesterday plus Diego can't be relied on to play well again.

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2 hours ago, four-leaf said:

I really agree on this one but I'll be biting on Marketa Vondrousovas performance so I'm taking her at 2.5 vs her countrywoman Karolina Pliskova who really aint anything close to a claycourt specialist even though she's won some clayfinals but Marketa is my pick.

i agree about marketa and im in big on her at +143 bookmaker. The type of forehand that she hits is going to make it very difficult for Plíšková especially the wide angles. Pliskova succeeds when you put the ball right on her forehand and don't make her move a lot but that will not be the case today and that is what the market doesn't realize. Mertens just doesn't have the correct style like marketa does.

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1 hour ago, Torque said:

Value is definitely on Shapo. Nadal was scary bad yesterday plus Diego can't be relied on to play well again.

Gonna sprinkle on shapo thanks you guys! I was struggling in rome and tossed a decent bet on diego yesterday to claw back to a profitable tournament. Did super well on cincy and us open and really trying to catch momentum on clay...

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Shapovalov showing just how bad Nadal was yesterday - breaking Diego almost at will. How on earth Nadal lost in straight sets and struggled so much to break I'll never know. Diego's serve is so weak. I know the conditions didn't suit Nadal but even so he should never have lost like that. He really did play badly and the conditions don't explain hitting the ball so short. Balls hit in and around the service box will get punished against anyone.

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3 hours ago, Torque said:

Shapovalov showing just how bad Nadal was yesterday - breaking Diego almost at will. How on earth Nadal lost in straight sets and struggled so much to break I'll never know. Diego's serve is so weak. I know the conditions didn't suit Nadal but even so he should never have lost like that. He really did play badly and the conditions don't explain hitting the ball so short. Balls hit in and around the service box will get punished against anyone.

Obvious lack of matches at Nadal. Anyone can say anything about their preparation, etc.

Nothing can replace the intensity and rythym of official matches. It gets you ready mentally and physically. Period. Several players, whom I'm almost 100% sure did a serious preparation before their first tournament after covid, got 'surprisingly' out, due to them beating themselves. - post interviews, talks - they all said the same - no rythym. That's why I proposed Carreno Busta too versus Nadal, turned out bad, Busta played awful.

There's absolutely no world where a normal prepared, with games in legs -  Nadal meets a normal prepared, with games in legs - Schwartzman, and it goes the way it has been played 2 days ago. 

Like I can see Nadal losing versus Schwartzman, yes.(not really tho) Nadal losing 3/3 service games in a row? Nah, that's just utter bullshit.

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Some recommendations for tomorrow,if you have any contrary arguments, maybe some info which could have gone near me, I gladly welcome them.

They are low odds, if you find it risky, follow it live, wait for a possible higher odd.

 

Sugita - Monteiro - Monteiro to win: 1.28 

Sandgren - Rublev- Rublev to win : 1.30

Vukic - Alcaraz : -Alcaraz to win: 1.35 

Harrison C - C. Norrie : Norrie to win: 1,36  

Nagal - D. Brown : - Nagal to win: 1.45  

Stebe - Grenier: Stebe to win: 1.35

I didn't have the time to add comments to all of them, whether any of them are non-clay players, or long pause, or simply skill difference. (Alcaraz for example)

I don't necessarily suggest prebetting on all/most of them, wait it live, be patient, if you see the opportunity -> strike. I can see Alcaraz losing a set, Norrie too, also Brown can upset a set too. In the end I do believe they'll all win.

(I also go with Zandschulp - Lorenzi, Zandschulp to win, and Tommy Paul - Anderson - Anderson to win)

EDIT1: I got happy cuz I could bet 2.25 on Alcaraz. Hell, he lost. Next.

EDIT2: Brown played as Brown plays, I still love this guy, I can't even get mad at all of him winning

EDIT3: Norrie is a joke, he won somehow though, Monteiro won confidently.

Edited by rodxuabht
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2 hours ago, rodxuabht said:

Obvious lack of matches at Nadal. Anyone can say anything about their preparation, etc.

Nothing can replace the intensity and rythym of official matches. It gets you ready mentally and physically. Period. Several players, whom I'm almost 100% sure did a serious preparation before their first tournament after covid, got 'surprisingly' out, due to them beating themselves. - post interviews, talks - they all said the same - no rythym. That's why I proposed Carreno Busta too versus Nadal, turned out bad, Busta played awful.

There's absolutely no world where a normal prepared, with games in legs -  Nadal meets a normal prepared, with games in legs - Schwartzman, and it goes the way it has been played 2 days ago. 

Like I can see Nadal losing versus Schwartzman, yes.(not really tho) Nadal losing 3/3 service games in a row? Nah, that's just utter bullshit.

I can see what you're saying but how many matches do you need to find rhythm - Nadal played two matches before facing Schwartzman, and he played well in both and nobody was talking about a lack of rhythm after those matches. In fact it was the opposite - people were eulogising about how it looked as though he hadn't had months and months without a match, as he was hitting shots with power and pinpoint laser-like accuracy down the line.

I think Nadal just played badly which he sometimes does - just like any other player - and also the conditions didn't suit, and those were the two factors he cited after the match. He did the same last year on the clay against Fognini, where he did well to avoid getting a bagel in the second set of a straight-sets loss. In that match he was too passive and hitting shots way too short, and it was the same against Schwartzman. He played exactly the same way when he played Schwartzman at the French Open a couple of years ago as well, where he went down a set and a break in conditions he didn't like. Luckily for him bad weather forced them off the court and when they came back and conditions had changed he ran out the winner in four sets - if there hadn't been that weather break though and playing the way he was, Schwartzman could have gone two sets up and then a massive shock would have been a real possibility.

The thing I find really strange is why he has these very rare matches where he almost seems to become timid. It's one thing to talk about how you've played badly after a match where you played your usual game but you just missed a lot of shots, but when you're the best player to ever play on clay and you've played badly because the power seems to have gone from your shots and you're struggling to clear the service box that's almost beyond belief. No matter what the conditions are I can't see why he sometimes hits shots so short - even if it's humid and he isn't benefitting as much as usual from his whipped shots surely he can still hit them deep and towards the corners like he would normally do, rather than giving his opponents easy shots from the middle of the court. It's as though heavy conditions affect his confidence, and the idea that he wouldn't have total confidence in his game seems remarkable - as does the idea that as one of the best players in the world he can't adapt his game to suit any conditions.

Edited by Torque
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  • CzechPunter changed the title to Tennis Tips - September 12 - September 27
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Kei Nishikori to beat Christian Garin at 1.79 with Pinnacle

Garin has been awful since the comeback. I saw his efforts against Kukushkin in the US Open and the transition to clay hasn't been smooth for him either, so I don't like his chances in Hamburg. Nishikori was decent despite his loss against the in-form Musetti and Hamburg is traditionally a bit faster, which should suit Nishikori more than Garin. Until Garin wins a decent match, he can't be trusted imo.

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There are some mad underdogs in the French Open that I like for tomorrow though. I'm low on confidence, but here you go, this season isn't going anywhere anyway.

Prajnesh Gunneswaran to beat Aleksandar Vukic at 3.55 with Pinnacle

Go Soeda to beat Tomas Machac at 4.51 with Pinnacle

It's easy to see why Vukic and Machac are the favorites, but such huge ones? Both Vukic and Machac are inconsistent, while Gunneswaran and Soeda have been around for ages. They might not be the best on clay, but the odds imply Gunneswaran has about 28 percent and Soeda 22, which doesn't seem right to me. 

Also trying for half the stake Hiroki Moriya to beat Daniel Altmaier at 10.00 with Bet365. Those are crazy odds for such a low-level match, Altmaier isn't Nadal.

 

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Some matches I've bet on:

Ruud - Paire: Paire to win 2-0, 8x odds at bet365: Uhm, you can skip this match, but. As much as I love betting against Paire cuz he is just stupid, I don't think the tanking, fluffy, childish Paire will last forever. Ruud comes from losing the final, I do not expect a super super well showing from him tomorrow.  Paire's nonsense - Will it stop tomorrow? I am not entirely sure, but if somehow he gets into the game, Ruud misses some easy shots, I think he can get into his zone.  I would not stay peaceful if I know I missed this 8x odds, and Paire washed him from the court.

 

Tauson - Talaba  : I was two minded about this one, whether I should go Talaba wins a set or over 19.5 games, but Imma go with the games. Tauson is a  great player, but I feel her slightly overrated here. Talaba is not that bad as the odds show, I can see 3 sets any day of the week, also a tiebreak anywhere, so the 19.5 should be covered.

I also have 2 matches I'm pretty confident in, but I'm not gonna take these low odds. Patience. I'll be waiting for an eventual first lost set(or almost lost set), then strike at a good, higher odds. (if they manage to win 2-0 2-0 then skip)

Tomova - Jani R.L - Tomova to win as a live bet, if there will be any odds above 1.7

Ruse - Kan - Ruse to win as a live bet, if there will be any odds above 1.7

 

Edited by rodxuabht
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38 minutes ago, rodxuabht said:

Some matches I've bet on:

Ruud - Paire: Paire to win 2-0, 8x odds at bet365: Uhm, you can skip this match, but. As much as I love betting against Paire cuz he is just stupid, I don't think the tanking, fluffy, childish Paire will last forever. Ruud comes from losing the final, I do not expect a super super well showing from him tomorrow.  Paire's nonsense - Will it stop tomorrow? I am not entirely sure, but if somehow he gets into the game, Ruud misses some easy shots, I think he can get into his zone.  I would not stay peaceful if I know I missed this 8x odds, and Paire washed him from the court.

 

Tauson - Talaba  : I was two minded about this one, whether I should go Talaba wins a set or over 19.5 games, but Imma go with the games. Tauson is a  great player, but I feel her slightly overrated here. Talaba is not that bad as the odds show, I can see 3 sets any day of the week, also a tiebreak anywhere, so the 19.5 should be covered.

I also have 2 matches I'm pretty confident in, but I'm not gonna take these low odds. Patience. I'll be waiting for an eventual first lost set(or almost lost set), then strike at a good, higher odds. (if they manage to win 2-0 2-0 then skip)

Tomova - Jani R.L - Tomova to win as a live bet, if there will be any odds above 1.7

Ruse - Kan - Ruse to win as a live bet, if there will be any odds above 1.7

 

Paire is clown, he would not even get his shit together if he would face Martin Cuevas but I get your point. 8 is really some made up thinking that Casper would take at least a set in this matchup any day of the week even he would have played 4 weeks straight and reached the final in every week of those 4. But Casper didn't lose the final, it was the semifinal.

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11 hours ago, CzechPunter said:

There are some mad underdogs in the French Open that I like for tomorrow though. I'm low on confidence, but here you go, this season isn't going anywhere anyway.

Prajnesh Gunneswaran to beat Aleksandar Vukic at 3.55 with Pinnacle

Go Soeda to beat Tomas Machac at 4.51 with Pinnacle

It's easy to see why Vukic and Machac are the favorites, but such huge ones? Both Vukic and Machac are inconsistent, while Gunneswaran and Soeda have been around for ages. They might not be the best on clay, but the odds imply Gunneswaran has about 28 percent and Soeda 22, which doesn't seem right to me. 

Also trying for half the stake Hiroki Moriya to beat Daniel Altmaier at 10.00 with Bet365. Those are crazy odds for such a low-level match, Altmaier isn't Nadal.

 

Excuse me for asking @CzechPunter but in which tournament do I find Gunneswaran?

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16 hours ago, rodxuabht said:

Some matches I've bet on:

Ruud - Paire: Paire to win 2-0, 8x odds at bet365: Uhm, you can skip this match, but. As much as I love betting against Paire cuz he is just stupid, I don't think the tanking, fluffy, childish Paire will last forever. Ruud comes from losing the final, I do not expect a super super well showing from him tomorrow.  Paire's nonsense - Will it stop tomorrow? I am not entirely sure, but if somehow he gets into the game, Ruud misses some easy shots, I think he can get into his zone.  I would not stay peaceful if I know I missed this 8x odds, and Paire washed him from the court.

 

Tauson - Talaba  : I was two minded about this one, whether I should go Talaba wins a set or over 19.5 games, but Imma go with the games. Tauson is a  great player, but I feel her slightly overrated here. Talaba is not that bad as the odds show, I can see 3 sets any day of the week, also a tiebreak anywhere, so the 19.5 should be covered.

I also have 2 matches I'm pretty confident in, but I'm not gonna take these low odds. Patience. I'll be waiting for an eventual first lost set(or almost lost set), then strike at a good, higher odds. (if they manage to win 2-0 2-0 then skip)

Tomova - Jani R.L - Tomova to win as a live bet, if there will be any odds above 1.7

Ruse - Kan - Ruse to win as a live bet, if there will be any odds above 1.7

 

Okay so, Paire is still a joke.

Tauson Talaba luckily had the best scenario for us.

And unfortunately Tomova and Ruse won easily, so I couldn't catch any bets on them..

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Do you guys know any good blogs or websites that discuss upcoming matches? I've been reading lastwordontennis.com and enjoy it but wondered if anything else was out there.

As far as forums go I find only this one to be useful. Any others?

Czechpunter hang in there man things always turn around if you make good bets!

Thanks in advance!

mdlp

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1 hour ago, mdlp said:

Do you guys know any good blogs or websites that discuss upcoming matches? I've been reading lastwordontennis.com and enjoy it but wondered if anything else was out there.

As far as forums go I find only this one to be useful. Any others?

Czechpunter hang in there man things always turn around if you make good bets!

Thanks in advance!

mdlp

Try livetennis @mdlp

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