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Tennis Tips - September 12 - September 27


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6 hours ago, mdlp said:

Kerber had more errors than usual but she didn't play horrific tennis.  What really happened is that Siniakova played like she used to back in 2017 and was lights out.  Very unexpected but this is tennis!

I really wonder what game you were watching. I watched that game from beginning to end and Kerber was shit till about 0-3 in the second when she suddenly raised her game a few notches out of the ordinary. By then, the birds had flown.All through the match Kerber never played with her usual hustling zeal. She hit only what was in front of her and let anything further to the left or right go. It is certainly misleading for you to suggest that Siniakova won that match from any sort of vintage form she may have conjured.

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I really agree on this one but I'll be biting on Marketa Vondrousovas performance so I'm taking her at 2.5 vs her countrywoman Karolina Pliskova who really aint anything close to a claycourt specialis

Just a bit of additional info to boost the Kovinic campaign. Yesterday Mertens withdrew from the doubles for reasons she gave as sickness. She also had a medical timeout yesterday that had to do with

Thanks a lot! I've been following this forum for a while now, I've read so many great analysises, and found so many many value bets, thanks to all the people posting here!

On 9/15/2020 at 4:00 PM, rodxuabht said:

Some recommendations from me:

Wawrinka- Musetti: I do not recommend prematch bets on this one, because if Wawrinka is healthy, he can 6-0 6-0 this one. If you got the time to follow the match - Wawrinka comes back from an injury, he said that he is felling good, etc. I don't exactly buy it, that he's 100%. The second you see he's struggling, or medical time-out, or he feels off, hit Musetti with the $$. 

Nadal - Carreno Busta: +6.5 handicap Busta, -bet365 - 1.83 odds: So Nadal's first official match since 03/2020 and they bring out these odds? I tend to disagree here. He will be affected as well by the lack of games in his leg. Would Busta be a threat to him in any ways on clay in normal situations? I don't think so. Is he a threat tomorrow? I do think so. I see a tiebreak easily, and after that the +6.5 is covered easily. 

Hurkacz - Rublev: Rublev to win - 1.30 odds - partypoker: If both were healthy, I still think Rublev would win 9.99/10 times this matchup. Hurkacz played injured yesterday vs Evans, only thing that saved him is that Evans plays like an ATP Nr 800 player on clay. Today against Bagnis, who actually played way better than I expected, Rublev took him out pretty confidently. Rublev advances. ( I recommend betting at a site which in case of withdrawal still gives you the dollars)

Yastremska - Anisimova: Anisimova +1.5 sets - or Anisimova to win 2.1 - bet365: I don't exactly know what's up  with Yastremska the last 7-8 matches. She struggles. Whether if its something mental, or she's injured, or she just doesn't care, she is definitely struggling and she's not playing Her tennis. I like Anisimova's chances in this match, she has super big ups and downs in a match, although I found her being pretty solid yesterday versus Vekic. Definitely worth a try looking at the odds.

Don't mind me, when I said 6-0 I obviously meant Musetti :D maybe Wawrinka should do less Muguruza and more tennis? Weak, Musetti didn't even play something out of the ordinary

Edit: Anisimova lost. She served for the match, didn't happen. Next 

Edited by rodxuabht
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I didn't watch Wawrinka and I didn't have an interest in the outcome, but it's the sort of match and result that I find really frustrating. Years of following tennis tells me the match went the way it did because Wawrinka couldn't be bothered - happy to be corrected if others watched and feel that wasn't the case. I know there was talk of an injury for Wawrinka but even that scenario I find frustrating - if he wasn't fit enough to play then why start the match and if he wasn't fit enough to compete then why complete the match, or the first set for that matter given the way that ended up going. Losing the first set 6-0 should be a professional embarrassment, but it won't be because as I alluded to the chances are Wawrinka just wasn't fussed.

To me, the absolute minimum a player should give is their best effort. Lose by all means - after all tennis is a sport where losing is a regular occurrence for practically every player - but at least try. If you don't feel able to do that for whatever reason then don't play, because it never looks good to see a player tank and it doesn't make the sport look good either. The worst ones and the most blatant ones are at minor tournaments before Slams - Exhibit A for me would have to be Dimitrov last year. Ahead of the US Open he was beaten by Kevin King - ranked at about 400 - in straight sets. I watched that match and he was finishing every rally early with an unforced error and really couldn't have made it more obvious that he didn't want to be out there, and then he goes on a great run at Flushing Meadows and takes out Federer.

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I would like to say something about the Nadal - PCB match.

It is true that the handicap line is set very high and it seems that PCB should cover it, but keep in mind that the PCB went deep at the US Open, that he literally played a match against Zverev five days ago.
I guess he flew to Rome the next day which means he lost a whole day on the road. He only had three days to prepare for this match. And there are also factors of fatigue, jet lag and in the first place - the factor of changing the surface.
Changing the surface from hard to clay is one of the most difficult and demanding changes in tennis.

On the other hand, it is true that Nadal did not play a competitive match for a long time, but he trained on clay all the time and had excellent preparations for this clay season.

I'm not saying this to "distract" anyone from their picks,but because it should be kept in mind.

Edited by DrO
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Yastremska parted with Bajin in a hostile atmosphere. He splited hastily from Wozniacki, Osaka, Mladenovic, now Yastremska; is the reason his personal charm?

He is undoubtedly a desirable coach.

Considered placing bet on Kovinic (at least one set) but only considered :) Bencic is still mentally disorganized without the necessary attitude to reach better rank.

Edited by lelit
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3 hours ago, DrO said:

I would like to say something about the Nadal - PCB match.

It is true that the handicap line is set very high and it seems that PCB should cover it, but keep in mind that the PCB went deep at the US Open, that he literally played a match against Zverev five days ago.
I guess he flew to Rome the next day which means he lost a whole day on the road. He only had three days to prepare for this match. And there are also factors of fatigue, jet lag and in the first place - the factor of changing the surface.
Changing the surface from hard to clay is one of the most difficult and demanding changes in tennis.

On the other hand, it is true that Nadal did not play a competitive match for a long time, but he trained on clay all the time and had excellent preparations for this clay season.

I'm not saying this to "distract" anyone from their picks,but because it should be kept in mind.

Agree with all of this @DrO

Despite Nadal's lay-off, this should be an easy win and I won't be surprised to see him cover the handicap. As you said, he'll have been training on clay and nothing else, plus he won't be fatigued from travel. Two quick sets should be the outcome.

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I will not waste too much time with trying to analyze the already analyzed. Tsitsipas is my subject of focus here. He currently is having one of the lowest points in his career and I think we can further capitalize on his woes with backing against him and quereshi in the upcoming doubles match. The bookies have just taken the necessary precaution to block it as I type. The odds have dropped further but it is one to note.

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Musetti - Nishikori 

I don't buy the odds offered by bookers. 1.79 for Musetti against 2.02 for Nishikori....

Yes, the guy won against Mayer (didn't watch the game) and Wawrinka (who either felt bad or was not interested in that game. Other than that he played agains average players in the last months (lost some games against average players as well... Altmaier, Alcaraz).

On the other side we have Nishikori, who did not play for a long time. Lost his first clay game against Kecmanovic (winning 1 set) and than won against Ramos in Rome.

I think that Nishikori has a good trend, having a first win on clay, and has much more experience. My guess is that tomorrow the odds will inverse. 

2.02 Unibet on Nishikori.

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57 minutes ago, vvararu said:

Musetti - Nishikori 

I don't buy the odds offered by bookers. 1.79 for Musetti against 2.02 for Nishikori....

Yes, the guy won against Mayer (didn't watch the game) and Wawrinka (who either felt bad or was not interested in that game. Other than that he played agains average players in the last months (lost some games against average players as well... Altmaier, Alcaraz).

On the other side we have Nishikori, who did not play for a long time. Lost his first clay game against Kecmanovic (winning 1 set) and than won against Ramos in Rome.

I think that Nishikori has a good trend, having a first win on clay, and has much more experience. My guess is that tomorrow the odds will inverse. 

2.02 Unibet on Nishikori.

I agree with the bet, I just don't think Alcaraz is average.

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29 minutes ago, vvararu said:

Musetti - Nishikori 

I don't buy the odds offered by bookers. 1.79 for Musetti against 2.02 for Nishikori....

Yes, the guy won against Mayer (didn't watch the game) and Wawrinka (who either felt bad or was not interested in that game. Other than that he played agains average players in the last months (lost some games against average players as well... Altmaier, Alcaraz).

On the other side we have Nishikori, who did not play for a long time. Lost his first clay game against Kecmanovic (winning 1 set) and than won against Ramos in Rome.

I think that Nishikori has a good trend, having a first win on clay, and has much more experience. My guess is that tomorrow the odds will inverse. 

2.02 Unibet on Nishikori.

Completely agree with vvavaru. I mean, no matter how talented Musetti might be, he's still an 18 year old kid. He's facing a very experienced opponent who looked pretty clutch on his first match against Ramos. The straight set victory against Wawrinka has made the bookmakers think that the young Italian should be considered the favorite tomorrow. Don't think that's the case here. 

 

Marketa Vondrousova(#19) to beat Arantxa Rus(#71) at 1.75 with bet365 

I happen to believe that the young Czech is one of the best players on clay courts these days. I like the fact that she almost never feels intimidated by whoever she's facing...In general, I consider her a very smart tennis player. Rus on the other hand has surely improved her game a lot, but she's kind of a one-dimensional player. Vondrousova should be able to control the rallies of the game and get the valuable win. 

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2 hours ago, Foo_Fighter said:

 

 

Marketa Vondrousova(#19) to beat Arantxa Rus(#71) at 1.75 with bet365 

I happen to believe that the young Czech is one of the best players on clay courts these days. I like the fact that she almost never feels intimidated by whoever she's facing...In general, I consider her a very smart tennis player. Rus on the other hand has surely improved her game a lot, but she's kind of a one-dimensional player. Vondrousova should be able to control the rallies of the game and get the valuable win. 

Whilst I will agree with some of the points you have made about Vondrousova, I certainly disagree with the verdict that you have arrived at. Vondrousova has not been in form for some time now and still has not dropped any sort of hint of nearing any sort of form. On the other hand Rus has been in good nick most notably taking Serena to a close final set in Cincinnatti. She also is no stranger to the clay where she plies her trade well on. Rus will definitely relish the challenge of playing Vondrousova  who will come armed with a mixture of spins and moon balls. I strongly believe that the Rus power game will prevail in the end. The deciding factor for me is that Rus is also left handed and can neutralise the Vondrousova threat easily.

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4 hours ago, rodxuabht said:

I just don't think Alcaraz is average.

You beat me to it @rodxuabht Alcaraz is definitely not average. Obviously it's very early in his career, but if he carries on along his current trajectory I don't think it's an exaggeration to say that he'll pick up a French Open title or two.

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Marketa Vondrousova has won 6 of her last 7 (85,7%) main draw matches when facing an older opponent on a clay court surface.

Edit: Now she has won 7 of her last 8 (87,5%) main draw matches when facing an older opponent on clay. Quite impressive I'd say. 

Edited by Foo_Fighter
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 I watched Rus-Vondrousova match and I think next round Vondrousova is going to get eliminated. The quality of the match was terrible.  Rus just lost by herself  Vondrousova just hit the ball back to court until Rus hits it to the other court basically with moon balls and very bad drop shots.

 

Next round she'll play either Bertens or Hercog I hope Hercog wins and we'll get better odds.

 

 

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5 minutes ago, gg-77 said:

 I watched Rus-Vondrousova match and I think next round Vondrousova is going to get eliminated. The quality of the match was terrible.  Rus just lost by herself  Vondrousova just hit the ball back to court until Rus hits it to the other court basically with moon balls and very bad drop shots.

 

Next round she'll play either Bertens or Hercog I hope Hercog wins and we'll get better odds.

 

 

Rus didn't lose by herself. You just can't observe how good Vondrousova is, there's no other explanation. 

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58 minutes ago, Foo_Fighter said:

Marketa Vondrousova has won 6 of her last 7 (85,7%) main draw matches when facing an older opponent on a clay court surface.

By no means want I to attack these stats or something, but they basically don't tell anything, I would not rely on these any day of the year.

 

 

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On 9/16/2020 at 12:46 AM, Torque said:

I didn't watch Wawrinka and I didn't have an interest in the outcome, but it's the sort of match and result that I find really frustrating. Years of following tennis tells me the match went the way it did because Wawrinka couldn't be bothered - happy to be corrected if others watched and feel that wasn't the case. I know there was talk of an injury for Wawrinka but even that scenario I find frustrating - if he wasn't fit enough to play then why start the match and if he wasn't fit enough to compete then why complete the match, or the first set for that matter given the way that ended up going. Losing the first set 6-0 should be a professional embarrassment, but it won't be because as I alluded to the chances are Wawrinka just wasn't fussed.

To me, the absolute minimum a player should give is their best effort. Lose by all means - after all tennis is a sport where losing is a regular occurrence for practically every player - but at least try. If you don't feel able to do that for whatever reason then don't play, because it never looks good to see a player tank and it doesn't make the sport look good either. The worst ones and the most blatant ones are at minor tournaments before Slams - Exhibit A for me would have to be Dimitrov last year. Ahead of the US Open he was beaten by Kevin King - ranked at about 400 - in straight sets. I watched that match and he was finishing every rally early with an unforced error and really couldn't have made it more obvious that he didn't want to be out there, and then he goes on a great run at Flushing Meadows and takes out Federer.

Couldn't agree more, Torque. I didn't see the Wawa match but it wouldn't be the first time he has tanked a match, esp when its close to a slam event.

I would also add Kerber to that list - just saw the highlights of her first round match in Rome and it was disgraceful. In horse racing they call them non-triers or schooling over the jumps. She made absolutely no attempt to go for balls which were simple to reach. Complete waste of an entry, maybe she thought nobody would notice with no crowds, but she should have the book thrown at her for that performance.

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That's interesting @Bettingboots I've always had Kerber down as the sort of player to give it everything, especially as she's a player who looks to have worked hard to make the most of her career. Maybe it was just one bad day at the office, which is much more forgivable than some players who give less than their best on a regular basis.

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Hi all. First time poster, long(ish) time lurker - especially for the tennis tips and discussion. 

I just wanted to chime in regarding the Stan vs Musetti discussion. if you guys didn't watch the Wawrinka vs. Musetti match, how can you decide based on a scoreline alone that he 'tanked' a match or didn't bother cos Rome isn't a grand slam?

I watched the whole match. Sure, Musetti is only 18 and was an unknown prior to the event. He was also outstanding. Imagine Federer and Djokovic having a tall Italian love-child and you wouldn't be far off.

In the second set Stan battled and had chances to get back into it but lost tie break. Throughout he looked fired up and wanted to win. Maybe he lacked fitness and/or was carrying an injury, idk, but imo Musetti was just way too good. It's for this reason that he beat Nishikori in straight sets. Absolute wonderkid!

Over to the women's tournament and a bet I quite like is Ka. Pliskova to win her Q @2.37 on 365. She faces Blinkova next where she's a huge favorite after looking super comfortable against Strycova, and will face either (most likely) Mertens - who is not in the best form of late, or Kovinic - who is playing solid, but wasn't really tested vs Bencic or Goerges (both so poor). Mertens let alone Pliskova will almost certainly be too much for her. 

 

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1pt Danka Kovinic to beat Elise Mertens @ 4.33 Bet365

Kovinic is in some really good form just now, and beating Bencic so convincingly in the last round should mean she's full of confidence and believing she can get another big win. Mertens is a top player and her ranking reflects that, and she too has looked good so far at this tournament but she might be getting to the stage now where her focus begins to shift to the French Open. If that happens then Kovinic has the talent to take advantage and momentum on her side - sometimes a player comes from nowhere at a tournament and that could be Kovinic here.

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6 hours ago, Torque said:

1pt Danka Kovinic to beat Elise Mertens @ 4.33 Bet365

Kovinic is in some really good form just now, and beating Bencic so convincingly in the last round should mean she's full of confidence and believing she can get another big win. Mertens is a top player and her ranking reflects that, and she too has looked good so far at this tournament but she might be getting to the stage now where her focus begins to shift to the French Open. If that happens then Kovinic has the talent to take advantage and momentum on her side - sometimes a player comes from nowhere at a tournament and that could be Kovinic here.

Just a bit of additional info to boost the Kovinic campaign. Yesterday Mertens withdrew from the doubles for reasons she gave as sickness. She also had a medical timeout yesterday that had to do with a nose bleed plus considering her recent run at the US Open it would seem about the right time for a change of the guards.

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Kasatkina vs Azarenka

It is no news again that Azarenka is in form which has now been going on for some time. I just feel it is about time her form cools off a bit either from the accumulated fatigue from the US open and other matches or just from a much needed pause period before the French Open commences.On the other hand Dasha looks to be picking up her game again especially on her favorite surface. She has won her last 4 matches in straight sets even if we give room for the fact that the opponents were a bit sub-standard. Azarenka leads h2h 2-0 the last game played on clay in 2019 which ended in 2 close sets. With the value on Dasha, i will go with alternative +5.5@ 8/11 handicap paddy power. Good value.

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16 hours ago, AgaRadwanska said:

Hi all. First time poster, long(ish) time lurker - especially for the tennis tips and discussion. 

I just wanted to chime in regarding the Stan vs Musetti discussion. if you guys didn't watch the Wawrinka vs. Musetti match, how can you decide based on a scoreline alone that he 'tanked' a match or didn't bother cos Rome isn't a grand slam?

I watched the whole match. Sure, Musetti is only 18 and was an unknown prior to the event. He was also outstanding. Imagine Federer and Djokovic having a tall Italian love-child and you wouldn't be far off.

In the second set Stan battled and had chances to get back into it but lost tie break. Throughout he looked fired up and wanted to win. Maybe he lacked fitness and/or was carrying an injury, idk, but imo Musetti was just way too good. It's for this reason that he beat Nishikori in straight sets. Absolute wonderkid!

Over to the women's tournament and a bet I quite like is Ka. Pliskova to win her Q @2.37 on 365. She faces Blinkova next where she's a huge favorite after looking super comfortable against Strycova, and will face either (most likely) Mertens - who is not in the best form of late, or Kovinic - who is playing solid, but wasn't really tested vs Bencic or Goerges (both so poor). Mertens let alone Pliskova will almost certainly be too much for her. 

 

Good to get a different opinion @AgaRadwanska and welcome to the forum.

As I said in what I wrote earlier I'm more than happy to be corrected if others watched the match and felt that Stan was giving it everything. As far as how can I make a judgement on effort levels without watching, that comes down to experience and lots of it. When you've followed tennis for a number of years you start to notice patterns and develop a feel for what lies behind the results of different players - like a poor result at a small tournament being immediately followed by a strong performance at a big one. Certain players are very stable in their results, others are more erratic. Some are very reliable at big tournaments, but much more inconsistent at smaller ones. I realise Musetti is a top prospect, but at the same time Wawrinka is a former French Open winner and that takes some doing. For me, there's no way he should be getting bagelled by Musetti and I'm almost certain that won't be happening in a set if they meet at Roland Garros and so as I was saying, either Wawrinka was injured or not that interested in the result.

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28 minutes ago, Torque said:

Good to get a different opinion @AgaRadwanska and welcome to the forum.

As I said in what I wrote earlier I'm more than happy to be corrected if others watched the match and felt that Stan was giving it everything. As far as how can I make a judgement on effort levels without watching, that comes down to experience and lots of it. When you've followed tennis for a number of years you start to notice patterns and develop a feel for what lies behind the results of different players - like a poor result at a small tournament being immediately followed by a strong performance at a big one. Certain players are very stable in their results, others are more erratic. Some are very reliable at big tournaments, but much more inconsistent at smaller ones. I realise Musetti is a top prospect, but at the same time Wawrinka is a former French Open winner and that takes some doing. For me, there's no way he should be getting bagelled by Musetti and I'm almost certain that won't be happening in a set if they meet at Roland Garros and so as I was saying, either Wawrinka was injured or not that interested in the result.

Fair points.

I haven't followed Stan's career that much so unaware if he makes a habit of dips in performance in non-GSs. I will say that Musetti's match vs Nishikori is well worth a watch if you didn't catch the highlights - some absolutely unreal rallies.

I expect his match vs Koepfer to be a bit closer (really rate Dominic) but can't see past a Musetti win again. Looking forward to a Musetti vs. Novak QF. 

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