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Racing Chat - Saturday 12th September


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The quality racing in Australia continues this Saturday with top class racing at Flemington in Melbourne and Rosehill in Sydney. There will be Caulfield Cup and Melbourne Cup clues aplenty. I have bets in 3 races at Flemington and 4 at Rosehill.

Flemington R1 (3.05am)

A cracking race to get the card underway and I like two against the field. Schabau is quite a short price favourite here and although the ex-German horse has a good chance I do think there is value elsewhere. Persan has done nothing but improve and it was another good win last time. Crucially he wont mind what the weather does (there is a fair bit of rain in the forecast) and he does look value. Young Rascal won't need any introductions and he will improve massively for this step up in trip 2nd up. Don't forget he beat Mugatoo on his 1st start in Australia and that is top notch form. He has top weight here, but I think it is fully deserved.

Persan @ 100/30 with William Hll

Young Rascal win and place @ 11/1 & 11/5 with Bet365

Flemington R2 (3.35am)

Immortal Love is 3/3 so far and was a G3 winner last time, beating two good horses in the process. He is already a course and distance winner and has won on Good, Soft and Heavy ground so again he wont care what the weather does. He drops into Listed company here and although there are a couple of possible improvers  in the field he sets a high benchmark to overcome.

Immortal Love @ 14/5 with Bet365

Flemington R3 (4.05am)

This does look like it will be a match between Savatiano and Arcadia Queen who finished 1st and 5th in a G2 at Caulfield last time. Savatiano can uphold that form for me. Arcadia Queen has a poor draw in 12 and with Savatiano likely to make the running or sit just behind the pace she is going to get first run on her main rival and that could prove crucial. Arcadia Queen continues to have injury issues as well which is also a worry.

Savatiano @ 6/4 with Bet365

Flemington R5 (5.15am)

Aktau was a very progressive horse for Roger Varian and he won at Glorious Goodwood on his final start over here. He has continued that progression in Australia winning 3/4 and claiming the Mornington Cup on his last start. He is 1st up here, but that isn't a concern given he won 1st up over 1600m here in December. Given that I am not worried about the 1700m trip here although obviously he will be stepping up in trip as the prep goes on. There should be more to come from him. I am having a saver on Shot Of Irish. That one ran at Moonee Valley last week, but he reared up as the stalls opened and injured his jockey in the process. He was progressive last prep and given the forecast he is likely to get his favoured ground come race time.

Aktau @ 100/30 with William Hill

Shot Of Irish @ 8/1 with Bet365

Flemington R6 (5.55am)

Windstorm is a really promising horse. He looked speedy in Western Australia and clocked some quick late sectionals on his first start in Victoria over 1100m last time to finish 4th. Going up in trip is obviously a positive and the long straight at Flemington should be ideal for him. He looks capable of taking this Listed contest on the way too much loftier targets.

Windstorm @ 6/5 with William Hill

Rosehill R1 (3.15am)

Ex-UK Cadre Du Noir was impressive at Sandown last time having finished 2nd to Skyman the time before. The Sandown race was only a BM70 though and he is back into BM78 company here. Skyman ran poorly last week as well so that form wasn't franked. He does look progressive, but he looks very short at odds on here. I am going to back Korcho to bounce back instead. He was poor last time, but he was dropping down in trip on quicker ground and started slowly so everything went against him. He had won his previous two and looked on the upgrade so I am happy to forgive the run a couple of weeks ago.

Korcho @ 11/2 with Betfair

Rosehill R3 (4.25am)

Yonkers clocked some quick finishing sectionals when returning last time at Randwick. He steps up 400m in trip here and if finishing his race off as well then he should go close. I am also going to back New King. Another horse to have come from the UK and we were on him when he won over 1500m here a month ago. He wasn't great last tie, but he got a slow start and was way too far back. He was impressive in winning the time before and I am prepared to give forgive the flop the last time. He won over this trip at Sandown on his final start in the UK so that looks a plus.

Yonkers @ 6/1 with Bet365

New King @ 10/1 with Betfair

Rosehill R7 (6.55am)

Funstar will be a big danger although I think she needs further than 1300m so I am firmly in Special Reward's camp here. He has won 8 of his 15 starts and was superb 1st up when finishing 3rd and just losing out in a 3 way go. He has got a good draw in 6 and should be able to take up the running with there not looking like there is any other pace in the race. He also has a great 2nd up record winning 3/5.

Special Reward @ 16/5 with Bet365

Rosehill R9 (8.15am)

Entante won a G3 at Randwick back in April and then finished 3rd in another G3 here on his following start. He returned over 1200m here a couple of weeks ago in a BM88 and ran well to finish 6th over a trip too short for him. He drops down in grade again here into a BM78 and although he has to carry 61kg I think he can do it. He goes up to 1500m and although he's never won over a trip this short I think he can get away with it in this grade especially based on his 1st up run.

Entante @ 4/1 with Bet365

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Donc 225 Portland hcap 

Arecibo 228 +2 

Soldiers minute 226 +1 

Danzeno   226 +1 

These 3 are 3pts clear of mountain peak who still has chances...but its these 3 for me .....danzeno has a lot of weight but has a good claimer on taking off 5lb so that makes him interesting ...arecibo is my idea of the winner....is coming to peak form ...well hcaaped ..ideal conditions ...well drawn ...should run a big race so let's go for it 

Arecibo 20pts win 9/1 888

Soldiers minute 10pt win 7/1 bet365

Danzeno 10pt win 12/1 paddyp

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550 leopard 

Music to my ears  225 +2

Bopedro  224 +1 

Music is in good form...can fluff the start but if can get away quick could be hard to pull back ....bopedro starts for new trainer...needs to find something but has the ability if fit ....good value at 14/1 ...

Music to my ears 10pts win 5.0 betfair

Bopedro 10pts win 15.0 betfair 

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I'm not betting in this because value is gone  but I'll put my ratings up and watch 

St leger 

Santiago  231 +1 

Pyledriver 229 +3

Berkshire rocco  225 

Really hard conundrum ....santiago has the best distance form and represents o brien who's record is impeccable so you wouldn't wanna put it past him winning another big race ....but pyledriver Is a speedy strong type who's improving so if he can carry that through the extra 2f then theres no reason why he couldn't win ....no value in the 3/1 quotes top 2 though but should be an interesting battle .....berkshire rocco was beaten 4 lengths by pyledriver but that was still a decent performance if pyledriver goes on to win this and will be suited by further .... so could run into a place at a big price (currently 33) ....for interest I might have a small ew on that one for fun 

Berkshire Rocco 33/1 bet365 5pt ew 

 

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1.15 Doncaster - 1pt e/w King Ottokar @ 20/1 Bet365

Has plenty of decent form in listed and group races but hasn't been as good this season. That said, travelled best of all at Windsor last time on his first run since being gelded but was keen throughout and didn't pick up when asked. Hasn't been raced much over a mile but they'll go a decent gallop here and hopefully he can settle and be stronger at the finish today,

2.25 Doncaster - 1pt e/w Danzeno @ 9/1 Bet365

Should have won last time when hampered and has a handy 5lbs taken off his back today. Conditions are absolutely perfect - 5 1/2f is spot on and a flat track suits. Needs a bit of luck but if getting the splits and is on the right side of the track, should go very well.

3.00 Doncaster - 2pts win One Master @ 7/2 Bet365

Wichita has to bounce back but could well do so but there looks plenty of pace on here and that should play into the hands of Limato and One Master especially. The former had the race fall in his lap on his return and I think the mare can stay on best here off a fast pace. Won despite everything at Goodwood and although would prefer softer ground, ought to be going close from off the pace here.

3.35 Doncaster - 2pts win Galileo Chrome @ 4/1 Bet365

Deserting horses that have done well for me has worked so far in the 3yo ranks having backed Highland Chief at Ascot, Mogul at Goodwood and Pyledriver at York and again I'm going to take on Pyledriver who is a lovely horse but isn't short of speed and will just take him on as although he's hit the line yard over 1m4f, this is another 2 and a half furlongs to contend with and there are no stamina issues with Galileo Chrome. Most progressive, has form that looks strong on a line through Group 2 winning filly Pista and could land this having kept his powder dry so far this season.

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4 minutes ago, Villa Chris said:

Danzeno along with Barbill were the two I singled out in the 2.25 at Doncaster. I went with Barbill for a couple of reasons , but can’t help but think that the ultra consistent Danzeno is e/w value at 9/1 paying 6 places, so I’ve also included the horse today. 

10 places with bet365 extra's market.

Good luck anyway 🤞

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On 9/11/2020 at 12:58 PM, richard-westwood said:

Donc 225 Portland hcap 

Arecibo 228 +2 

Soldiers minute 226 +1 

Danzeno   226 +1 

These 3 are 3pts clear of mountain peak who still has chances...but its these 3 for me .....danzeno has a lot of weight but has a good claimer on taking off 5lb so that makes him interesting ...arecibo is my idea of the winner....is coming to peak form ...well hcaaped ..ideal conditions ...well drawn ...should run a big race so let's go for it 

Arecibo 20pts win 9/1 888

Soldiers minute 10pt win 7/1 bet365

Danzeno 10pt win 12/1 paddyp

 

10 hours ago, richard-westwood said:

I'm not betting in this because value is gone  but I'll put my ratings up and watch 

St leger 

Santiago  231 +1 

Pyledriver 229 +3

Berkshire rocco  225 

Really hard conundrum ....santiago has the best distance form and represents o brien who's record is impeccable so you wouldn't wanna put it past him winning another big race ....but pyledriver Is a speedy strong type who's improving so if he can carry that through the extra 2f then theres no reason why he couldn't win ....no value in the 3/1 quotes top 2 though but should be an interesting battle .....berkshire rocco was beaten 4 lengths by pyledriver but that was still a decent performance if pyledriver goes on to win this and will be suited by further .... so could run into a place at a big price (currently 33) ....for interest I might have a small ew on that one for fun 

Berkshire Rocco 33/1 bet365 5pt ew 

 

2 nd and 4th in the first race ....beaten a neck at 33/1 in the leger .....gutted ....almost a big day ....ew money 

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