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Covid: The Perfect Storm!!!

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6 hours ago, Zico10 said:

Doesn't make good reading if you're a Bolton fan. Where can you still get that 16/1?!!!

Billy Hills and BetVictor, link below...


Did you ever hear how Billy Hill actually started out, it's an interesting saga...


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On 11/4/2020 at 7:03 PM, Zico10 said:

Cheers perfect storm. No idea how they started. By the way really enjoyed your whistleblower story and I have the utmost respect for people who are prepared to put their principles and integrity above money and the easy thing to do. 


As for Billy Hill, I was told that he started out as "a bit of a lad" taking bets during the tea breaks off blokes he was working with at the BSA motorbike factory in Birmingham.

He got a taste for illegal betting, but with the Police breathing down his neck he moved to County Cork until the heat was off. Then to London where he opened an illegal gambling den, he never looked back from that, mind you he didn't see the sort of money in his lifetime that his namesake betting shops take now in a day.

At one time Bookmakers were characters, they put their judgement and money on the line, but the days of Turf Accountants are long gone. When the "Elite" noticed how easy it is to relieve the working class of their money Betting Shops flourished and pretty soon chains of them became Ltd companies traded {by the Toffs} on the FTSE.

At that point they dropped the word "Turf" and became nothing more than "Accountants" a Greek word for parasites with sharp pencils. There's no character's now, no Billy Hill, no Gus Demmy, no "Polish Joe" Kagarlitski {name changed to Joe Coral}, it's just figureheads now like Bald Fred, Paddy Power, Bet Victor and the like, Ltd Companies.

There's no risk involved to Bookmakers any more, the dice they roll were always loaded in their favour, if that's not bad enough they now use algorithms to figure out betting patterns and who they DON'T want on their books. Most punters say "they bet for the fun of it" Pas Moi, I see no fun in donating my money to parasites. 

My strategy to avoid that was passed on to me by Gus Demmy, 50 years ago at Salford dog track, "The less often you bet, the more often you win". The logic being, if you bet every 20 minutes as MANY punters do, you have to divide your money into small amounts, amounts so small that even if you have a 10/1 winner you've won feck all, and your other losing bets of the day will ensure you go home with the best part of **** all.

But IF you have the DISCIPLINE you save the 20 quid you were desperate to donate on Monday, you look for a chink in the Bookies armour on Tuesday, but NOW you still have Mondays money, chances are you have 40 quid.

The worst thing to do is to divide your bank into miniscule bets, bets that couldn't possibly do any harm to the Bookie. If nothing REALLY stands out on Tuesday, leave it until Wednesday, keep your powder dry, DON'T fritter your bank away, keep adding to your bank until you are as sure as you can be that whatever caught your eye is worth ALL or most of, what you've been "saving" day to day, even week to week.

That way you look at a bet and wonder is it really worth me putting 60 quid, or maybe 300 quid on the bet, if you aren't sure keep hold of YOUR CASH, don't be RUSHING to GIVE it to a parasite. So the less often you bet, the more you look into the bet, you aren't putting 2 quid on this, 2 quid on that, 2 quid on another and 2 quid on what yer mate said he's backed in the next race, whittling away your money simply because you need your "fix" every 20 minutes.

If EVER you need to cool your heels, remind yourself that "Bookmakers don't live in Council Houses", millions of punters do. Don't go to war with the Bookies with 2 quid pea shooter bet in yer hand, roll yer cash up until it's at least as damaging as a hand grenade, the more you can salt away the better your chance of really hurting the Bookies.

I used to bet with Gus at Salford dogs, didn't take him long to figure out that I was a lucky young beggar. He used to say "I want you on my side" we spent a couple of years with banter like that between us. By the time I was in my early 20's I'd had my fill of riveting Canberra bombers and Lightning fighters together for DeHavilland Aircraft, so I jacked it in, went to see Gus, told him I was looking for a job, he took me on as a "Settler" in one of his central Manchester Offices.

Those were the days, a Board Man chalking the odds and the results up, a girl taking bets on one side, a girl paying out on the other and a Settler in the middle calculating the winnings. You had to be good and fast reckoning bets out, you needed to be accurate to a penny in 100 quid, if you weren't the Punters would soon let you know, get it wrong the other way and Gus would have things to say. Try working out an 11/- Yankee with a 15/8 an 11/4 a 17/2 and a 100/8 winner, we had to do it with pencil and paper in those days, no calculators, but we did have the Block Method, a very clever way of working out any multiple bets...

That shop I worked in, near The Rising Sun pub, would be packed with Jewish business men, I noticed how the ones who bet least often, won more bets than they lost, that was something I never forgot. What worked for them 50 years ago serves me well when I have a bet. The hardest part is developing DISCIPLINE, betting IS an addiction, let the addiction control you and yer KNACKERED, you'll never pull out of the nose dive, but if you've a strong enough mind you'll develop discipline, a bit like bench pressing it aint easy for the first few months, but it makes you a wiser / stronger man once YOU are in control rather than falling for all the flashing lights, bells and whistles, EXCITING race commentaries all targetted to mesmerise you.

Here's one for you, how Bookies play with yer head, next time yer in a Bookies listen to the horses racing, you can see the horses a mile away, but, oddly enough you can hear their hooves, how the **** is that !!! Well, it's NOT their hooves, it's a sound track they play to keep the mugs excited, the same sound track in Heavy as it is Good to Firm. That's the extent they will go to just to "excite" you, to keep your head spinning and the money falling out of your pockets...

Betting is a hard game, especially when the "enemy" is hell bet on hoodwinking us.     You can't sink the Bookies ship with 2 quid pea shooters, but you can put a dent in it with a cannon ball...















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Nothing new there then, the same venue and scoreline, as when they met on Sept 8th the result of that being Crewe have won more times at Bolton than the Wunderers have won at Home this season !!!

Crewe are 18th of 24 in League 1, just 3 points above the 24th team Wigan, so Crewe being a Division higher might be expected to win, but temper that with where they are in League 1. Crewe have scored a TOTAL of 8 goals in 10 games, that tells you something about the Wunderers defence when Crewe have put 6 goals past them in just 2 games !!!

But there's more to it than that, Crewe had 80% of the possession until the 29th minute when their first goal went in. Crewe slackened of noticeably after that, cruising towards HT only to see Delfouneso pop one in off his left foot, good goal, well deserved...

The second half was more eventful, if you're into Pub League football that is. 

Crewe looked confident, playing as though it was a training session, eventually making it 3-1 only to drop down several gears into "Game Won" mode to see Delfouneso pop another one in to make it 3-2.

Thankfully it stayed like that, mind you, if they'd gone into extra time that might have helped our 50/1 bet as there's always a chance when players are running out of steam that they'll pick up an injury. As the monkey said, "every little helps" on the lead up to the Wunderers next game against in form Salford.

A buddy of mine sent me the photo below, nice car, parked outside the Wunderers, he said he thought it was a Jag, I'm hoping it was an Omen 🤣





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Blimey, you could almost feel sorry for the Wunderers...


I reckon that Ian Evatt must have killed a Priest in another life.

That's all the Wunderers need right now, their best Defender out for a couple of months as they are lining up to play one relegation rival after another. It's not looking good for their game on Friday the 13th either against Salford, could be a real nightmare.

I thought the Bookies had the odds wrong for the Crewe game, gawd knows what the Braces & Cigar "Traders" are snorting if this is how they see the game...


13/10 against Salford !!!

Is that a typo ? if you wanted to back Salford with me you'd be lucky to get 3/10.  

Fair enough Salford have blown hot and cold, a bit, this season, but I reckon that their new Manager, Wellens {ex-Swindon}, will have the team fired up for this local derby.

Time will tell, but that 50/1 bet is looking better than ever now...






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I read there is a lot of unrest about the goal keeper position, young lad has been making a lot of mistakes. Has also saved a couple of pens I seem to remember. No keeper on bench. Be interesting to see what happens Friday.

I would think Welland’s will want his team to make a statement first game in charge and on Sky. But so would Evatt and a local derby.

Might wait for some team news before jumping in, particularly about the keeper. Could there be a clause that he has to play in his loan agreement, are Fleetwood paying his wages, apparently he was recommended by the GK coach?

Friday seems a long way off, plus there is always COVID and Salford play Tuesday night.

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Hello Alley Cat,

I read there is a lot of unrest about the goal keeper position             

Aye, well, the supporters would agree with you, but they'd be a lot less "polite" in the words they used to express them.

young lad has been making a lot of mistakes                                      

I don't know what to say, you don't kick a man when he's down, Crellin is only 20 so he's a long way to go in his career. He'll probably improve {once he leaves Bolton} but he's little more than a "ham & egger" and right now nothing seems to be going right for him, once a player is in that sort of a rut it seems almost impossible to get out of, more so for a goalkeeper, if they lose their confidence it just goes from bad to worse, and it's been doing that for Crellin.

The PRESSURE on him from the fans is tremendous, although not public knowledge no doubt his team mates, particularly the defenders are affected by lack of confidence in their goalie, so they make mistakes, that makes things more difficult for Crellin.

Has also saved a couple of pens I seem to remember.                       

Err, well, as impossible as it seems at times to save a penalty, the last chat I had on the topic with the Premiership goalie who lives next door {yea really}, but he's in the process of moving into the house he just bought for £1.3 Million from Charlie Adam, he's gone back to Scotland, anyway, I digress, there's a back story, more on that another time.

My unnamed buddy says that on average 75% of penalties are scored, but that can vary considerably depending on who the players involved are. It's a science now, before the lad next door steps onto the pitch he is briefed on who the opposing teams penalty takers are, and where they prefer to put the ball. Although a goalie will take this into account the thing that makes a good goalie is instinct, a brain sharp enough to interpret every move the penalty taker makes. Those calculations are going on faster than they can consciously evaluate, that's instinct, either you have it, or you don't, to greater of lesser degree's. Mix into that if you're having a good / confidence building run or an absolute shocker, Crellin is in latter.

There's basically only 6 places a shot can go to finish up in the net, top or bottom corners left or right, or straight at you, low or high. If you have almost zero goal keeping ability you'll "get in the way" of 16% of penalty shots, that's the way the Wunderers see the two penalty shots that Crellin saved, even a blind squirrel finds a nut now and again.

So who can say if Crellin is a Hero or a Zero, all I can say is that I'm certainly not complaining at his performances so far, and I don't see him pulling out of the nose dive. The only other goalkeeper that Bolton have on their books is 18 year old Matt Alexander, a promising youngster that a lot of supporters would rather see in goal, I'm happy with either one right now, the pressure between the posts at the Reebok is too much for any mere mortal to withstand.

No keeper on bench. Be interesting to see what happens Friday.  

I'm one of the few who isn't complaining about that, maybe Evatt took a bit of that 50/1 !!!

I would think Wellends will want his team to make a statement first game in charge and on Sky. But so would Evatt and a local derby.  

Agreed, but there's a LOT more chance of Wellends getting what he wants.

Might wait for some team news before jumping in,                         

My read of it is, Salford have a lot of good players to chose from, and far as I know none of them carrying injuries. Can't say the same for the Wunderers, a team made up of "Lad's and Dad's" a good number of the Dad's already showing their age in the games, running out of steam, not being quick enough to contest the midfield, that's not just my review, comments like that in the Wunderers Forums are like Blackpool is written through rock. If that's not bad enough, the injury list for the Wunderers is already starting to affect the team, if that get's worse, let's say if Delfouneso gets injured, gets sick, goes off the boil they'd be in deep trouble, of the 9 goals they've scored Delfouneso has scored 4 of them.

particularly about the keeper.                                                                

I wouldn't let that concern you, one is as good as the other, can you imagine an 18 year old taking that pressure on.

Could there be a clause that he has to play in his loan agreement, are Fleetwood paying his wages, apparently he was recommended by the GK coach?                                                                                   

I don't know regarding the above, lots of comments and concerns flying around about it though.

Friday seems a long way off, plus there is always COVID and Salford play Tuesday night.                                                              

Aye, here's me, 73 and wishing my days away, I can't get from one game to the next fast enough, there's a downside to everything hey...



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Hello Yossa,

Just noticed you're a Forest supporter, I knew Nigel Doughty years ago, he put the best part of £100 Million into Forest over the years, and not all that many years at that, only to see the Forest supporters turn against him, a lesson that Football Ventures should take note of.

Nigel was one of the nicest guys I ever met, all I knew about him when we met in a bar in Miami was he was a fellow ex-pat, no way would you know he was a Multi Millionaire. He was just a regular guy, dressed casual, not one of the Rolex / Gold chain / Gold ring / jewellery festooned brigade. It was only after a while we were talking about football that he mentioned that he owned Forest, I was gobsmacked, but Nigel made little of it, other than recalling how his dad used to take him to watch Forest when he was a little lad.

I was gutted years later when I heard Nigel had died working out, on his own, in his home in Skillington, he was one of the nicest / most decent men I ever met.


I keep an eye on the football career of his son, Nigel would have been proud of him.

As for his wife Lucy, I met her too, didn't she do well when she left Dominican Republic to fall into Nigel's lap...



I'll say no more than that...






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 Looks like Salford are taking the upcoming game against the Wunderers seriously.

They played Rochdale, a half decent League 1 team last night and although Salford went 1-0 down early on they battled back for a well deserved 2-1 win away from home, but there's more to it than that.

Wellens, Salfords new Manager rested most of his 1st team to make sure they didn't pick up any injuries prior to playing the Wunderers in the local derby on Friday night, by the way, it's on SKY TV, don't miss it.

Evatt {the Wunderers Manager} has hinted that he might give Crellin a rest and possibly put 18 year old, decent / light weight Matt Alexander in goal, or 38 year old Goalkeeping Coach Matt Gilks in goal. I can see how Evatt is spoiled for choice, a Lad or a Dad, or risk more of "Crellins Clangers" I can't make my mind up who I'd like to see in goal, any one of them would do for me 🤣





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Wish I knew how to get a bet on the comings and goings at BWFC.

If the Wunderers don't put a stop to Crellins Clangers we won't need to wait for the club going into Admin, Crellin will do it single handedly.

But being more of a 5th Columnist than a Sports Columnist it's nice to be on the inside track.

Although Crellin will almost certainly face the wrath of Salford I doubt he will be putting the jersey on much longer, it won't be the "18 year old Lad or the 38 year old Dad" that takes Crellin's place.

Talks are "ongoing" with a Free Agent, a decent lad, better than any keeper presently on their books, just a matter of talking money, regulatory health checks etc doing a spot of training, mind you, if they gave me a trial between the posts against the Wunderers strikers I'd probably look good.

There's no mention in the local papers, but if all goes well with the negotiations the lad will be on the books within days. I can't mention his name, doing that would compromise my source. I just hope that ******  ***** gets the job, a * for every letter of his name there.

I wish there was betting on who the Wunderers next goalie would be, or how long Crellin would last, the ink wouldn't be dry before Crellin would be sent packing on his way back to Fleetwood.







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Hmmm, I've had better news than this :-(


Then again, "STOP THE PRESS" the tide has turned again.


Get on to Billy Hills soon as you can, before the "Traders" learn how to read, they are still offering 6/5 against Salford, I'll have a slice of that...



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Hello Harry,

I hear you regarding the date, Friday 13th, but, knowing it's Friday the 13th for Billy Hill, Bald Fred and the rest of them I'll nail my colours to the mast by saying the Wunderers have more chance of walking under a black cat then beating Salford tonight.

That's my gut feeling for the game, but, I'd never encourage anyone to bet more than they could comfortably afford to throw away, no matter how strong their gut feeling is.

I don't bet under or over these days, even though they can offer value I've burned my fingers and my money when teams that you'd expect to run in 4 or more goals, decide to take it easy and get the same 3 points by tapping in a 1-0 win.

Not wanting to jinx them I'll say nowt about yer bets, other than to wish you luck on them, I'll be pulling for you during the game, keeping an eye on how it's going for you.

I see the 6/5 went pretty quick, I might have helped push that towards the odds on that Salford are now. By the way, check yer messages in here, I've filled you and Labrador in on the "comings and goings" at the Wunderers. I tried to copy Stevie {the Admin guy} in on it too, but it seems you can only send 2 messages a day in here ? so I'd appreciate it if you could pass that message on to Stevie for me, I'm sure he'll be amused by the prospects of me starting a new career 😉

Keep the info in that message to yourself though, other than to Stevie that is, I don't want to drop a spanner in "what's names" works...





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Think he little option did he, can’t play an even younger keeper in a game like this.  Not sure how agile or fit the coach is but will find out after 90 mins. Now a goal keeper on the bench also. Keeper to get sent off anyone? Also all the injuries seemed to have cleared up in the last 24hrs. Looks like A strong line up, but will it help against Salford who themselves look stronger, new manager will want a statement. Gone for Henderson to score twice, takes pens i think. Could be a tighter game than previously envisaged. Here’s hoping it’s not.

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Bolton 2 Salford 0 

Well, the wheels fell off Salfords wagon tonight in a spectacular way, hard as it is to say this but the Wunderers outplayed them, I haven't seen them play this well since they beat Gillingham 4-0 in March of 2017.

Maybe dropping Crellin made a difference, Matt Gilks played well enough, if would be hard to play Crellin ever again after this result today, my guess is he'll be on his way back to Fleetwood already.

As for me, well, I'm stunned, I took 6/5 to a monkey on Salford, only to see them look like a tired team, the only thing they beat Bolton at was the number of times the passed the ball backwards, and that takes some doing.

Hopefully some of the other L2 relegation candidates will snatch a few points tomorrow...

As they say "Bookmakers don't live in Council Houses", thanks to results like this 🥴









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10 minutes ago, harry_rag said:

My fault, I jinxed them! :loon

I'll try and look the other way when it comes to spotting value in future Bolton games; let the antepost bets ride.

Yer not on yer own Harry, I said weeks ago in here that I wouldn't back in any of Bolton's games fearing I'd jinx the result, only to fall for Salford last night, just goes to show what happens when the trap is baited as appetisingly as it was last night.

Lesson learned, I hope, but it's a lesson that I keep forgetting, fingers crossed for the hindmost today then...

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Well there’s hope yet with that set of results, problem will be the next 3 matches will be key to the bet. Stevenage, Scnuthorpe and Southend one after the other. If only Salford had turned up last night. Looks like Bolton may be hard to beat though with the goal keeper situation likely to be resolved in favour of the coach!

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The Darkest hour was just before Dawn !!!

You couldn't make it up how the results went for us today, starting with bottom of the League Southend winning 2-1 away to Walsall, let's hope they keep up the good work !!!

Then to see Scun.thorpe win 2-0 away to Oldham, what odds would you have got from these two both winning away today !!!

Third from bottom Stevenage didn't let us down either grabbing a point away in a 1-1 game at Morecambe.

Mansfield fourth from bottom won away beating league contenders Forest Green 2-1.

Even Barrow grabbed a 1-1 draw in the 96th minute away to 2nd top Cambridge United.

Add to that, Tranmere having gone 2-0 down against away against Port Vale grabbed the winning goal "a la" Barrow in the 96th minute !!!

Of the 18 points played for by these relegation candidates 14 points were brought home !!!  Results like this really opens up the relegation battle. The Wunderers haven't slipped the noose yet, they are now only 8 points clear of bottom placed Southend 13 v 5 and just 6 points ahead of Scun.thorpe who have 3 games in hand on the Wunderers.

As for the rest of them, well, Grimsby are in the mix with just 12 points, but they have 2 games in hand on the Wunderers.

I'll bet the Wunderers were thanking their lucky stars last night, but after today's results they'll be looking over their L2 shoulders again.

Their next game is an EFL Trophy game against Newcastle U21 on Tuesday, I might just phone Ian Evatt up, I reckon I'd have a chance of being selected to play in that game.

The Wunderers next L2 game is away to Stevenage, who would want to call that game, Pas Moi, I'll be keeping my powder {and my monkeys} dry...

What a day hey...








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1 hour ago, Alley Cat Glover said:

Well there’s hope yet with that set of results, problem will be the next 3 matches will be key to the bet. Stevenage, Scnuthorpe and Southend one after the other. If only Salford had turned up last night. Looks like Bolton may be hard to beat though with the goal keeper situation likely to be resolved in favour of the coach!

Don't sweat who's in goal for those matches, it will either be me, or ****** ***** negotiations are ongoing, I'd do it for nowt, but ****** ***** wants a wage out of it.


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I hope I'm proved wrong because it's always nice to take the bookies to the cleaners with a big odds win that was completely mis-priced, but for me the only way Bolton get relegated is if they get a points deduction. Other than that, I'd say there's going to be two teams worse than Bolton and that's all that's needed to sink the bet. Despite the good result today, Southend look doomed - rookie manager, budgetary constraints (I think) and a a poor team. 

This looks like a perfect case of taking a bet with value - i.e. Bolton should definitely have been shorter than the opening 50 to 1 for relegation - that still loses. Bolton might not be playing all that well, but results have definitely picked up and also they've managed to get late goals in a couple of matches which has meant they've got a few more points than they probably should have and that's always good for confidence and building momentum.

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I hear you Torque, the potential for the 17 point deduction, 5 points carried over from last season, plus the standard 12 point standard deduction for going into Admin caught my attention, that's why I took the 50/1 before a ball was kicked. I know how "difficult" finances are at the club, even before the second lock down came in.

I had no idea how their results would go, but I was certainly less confident than the Wunderers supporters I know. It just adds favourably to the bet when the team have shall I say underperformed.

My thoughts were that they will go back into Admin, it's then down to how soon and how many points do I reckon they might have at that point. I'm no Fan of the Wunderers so I wasn't thinking "they'll win every game" I considered {before a ball was kicked} that they'd be somewhere mid table by the time they went bust. The calculation then is, "take 17 points off what they have at the time, and see where that would put them.

The thing is, if they go into Admin who would want to take them over, they'd be facing oblivion.

I have my doubts that FV will be willing or even able to carry the costs of the Club, the "ever empty" 125 bedroom hotel, the debts they inherited when they took the Club over, that's in the region of £5 Million due by August 2021. Add to that the £2,000 a DAY inherited debt on the hotel, the wages of the 200 or so staff, then there's the usual overheads for the stadium and the hotel, last year that was running at around £500,000 a month. 

FV paid £17.4 Million, £10 Million for the Club and £7.4 Million for the Hotel and took on inherited debt that has to be paid off less than 9 months time. FV thought they were buying into a going concern, the hotel has run consistently at around 80% capacity for years, right now they are lucky to have 8% capacity, but the lights are still on, wages have to be paid, that 2 grand a day has to be found, utilities, rates, etc etc etc have to be paid, but out of what ? The hotel is as good as closed right now, it's certainly not a cash cow, then again, if you look at the books when it was 80% full it NEVER made a profit worth talking about, that's one of the reasons that BWFC went into Admin in the first place.

As for the Club, FV thought that would be a cash cow too, but it's not just the hotel that's empty, it's the Stands as well, so where does the £500,000 a month come from ? how can FV cover that, and that's not even to mention the approx £5 million they HAVE to find to service inherited debt. They couldn't pay off around £1.2 Million owed earlier this year, they had to ask for a rescheduling of that, they were given a few months grace, but they had to restart those payments about a month ago. I've had a good in depth look at "money in, money out" and who might be "willing or even able" to service these debts.

No matter how much Michael & Sharon say they are affiliated to the Wunderers when push comes to shove you can bet they are more affiliated to their money, what's left of it. I'm sure they went into this venture expecting to make money from it, that's not happening, but the bills still have to be paid, there's little {if any} light at the end of this tunnel.

There's a time to hold 'em and a time to fold 'em" would you throw good money after bad ? What it boils down to is, what are the odds against the club going bust, in the next 2-3 months, I'd say it's no better than Evens, that's why the 50/1 looked good to me, and still looks good.















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It was definitely worth a bet at the price. Let's just hope they don't do a Bury - I'm assuming if they do then a relegation bet is a busted flush, and as much as any bets should be voided it wouldn't surprise me to discover in the small-print that there's no obligation for a refund.

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