Racing Chat - Saturday 29th August

[Darran]

Last week was a bit of a damp squid on the Australian front as not only did Moonee Valley get abandoned midway through the card, but I also found winners hard to come by. To be fair I was probably due a really tough week given how positive it has mainly been since I started these previews back in March. This week we are at Caulfield where the Group 1 Memsie Stakes is the highlight, although I found it too tough so no tip for me in that, and Rosehill is the Sydney venue.

Caulfield R3 (3.55am)

A pretty open contest this, but I like the look of Acting at a decent price. She is a G2 winner over course and distance and made a really good return when 3rd over 1100m here a couple of weeks ago. She stayed on the inside that day and it did look like the ground wasn't the best so you can upgrade the effort. Also the winner Bless Her has run up a sequence so the form looks good.

Acting @ 9/1 with Betfair

Caulfield R4 (4.30am)

An interesting race here with a few horses returning that will be looking for further later on in the campaign so I am taking two against the field who should be ready for this. Morrissy ran a cracking race in the WFA G2 Lawrence Stakes over course and distance 2 weeks ago. He loves this course and distance and back in a handicap I think he has a really solid chance. Yulong January is the other one I like. He ran well 1st up in a G3 over 1200m at Flemington. He got tired late on there and he should be fitter here. He has won 2/3 2nd up and will enjoy the firmer surface as well.

Morrissy @ 100/30 with William Hill

Yulong January @ 9/2 with Bet365

Caulfield R5 (5.10am)

This is basically the same race that should have ended the card at Moonee Valley last week. I put up Orderofthegarter and Polly Grey in that race and the prices allowed that. The problem here is both are under 3/1 so it's hard to put both up as a bet. I'm going to side with Orderofthegarter because I thought his run was huge last time after a long lay off. The draw isn't ideal in 12, but hopefully Damien can do the business. As per last week it will be interesting to see what Young Rascal and Schabau both do. 

Orderofthegarter @12/5 with Bet365

Caulfield R7 (6.30am)

Tagaloa looks pretty hard to beat here on his return. He looked good in a jump out at Cranbourne recently and he looked a really promising horse in the autumn having won the Blue Diamond over course and distance before finishing 4th in the Golden Slipper. There are some unexposed horses here, but I think they will have to improve a fair bit to beat Tagaloa.

Tagaloa @ 11/4 with William Hill

Caulfield R10 (8.20am)

Rubisaki has won 8 of her 10 races and finished 2nd in the other two. She was unbeaten in her last prep starting off in a BM78 and then going on to win a G2 and two G3's. She handles all types of ground and her closing splits were always top notch. She is surely working her way up to G1 level this prep and she should be able to take this on her way. The only concern is the wide draw, but hopefully she can fly home to win. As mentioned above Bless Her has been in great form and I can imagine that she will be the horse that Rubisaki has to run down.

Rubisaki @ 7/4 with William Hill

Rosehill R4 (4.50am)

Amazingly it has stopped raining in Sydney so we are looking at a good track for a change. Ex UK horse Korcho has won his last two in good style and he stays at BM78 level as he looks to land the hat-trick. He handled good ground in the UK so I am not concerned that he is on a drier track. He comes back to 2000m, but that shouldn't bother him either. I think he can land this before stepping up in grade.

Korcho @ 9/2 with Bet365

Rosehill R6 (6.10am)

Sangria was poor at Randwick at the start of the month, but that was on a Heavy 9 1st up so we can forgive that performance. She will prefer this drier surface and was a Listed winner at Flemington back in March. She has won a trial since so is clearly in good form and I am expecting a much improved performance here.

Sangria @14/5 with Bet365

Rosehill R7 6.50am)

Chris Waller has always spoken highly of Overlord and although he has yet to win a race he has bumped into the very promising Peltzer (goes in the race befofre) twice and then ran 4th of 18 in the G1 JJ Atkins at Eagle Farm in June. You would hope that he can finally break his maiden tag here.

Overlord @ 6/4 with Bet365

Rosehill R8 (7.30am)

A few ex UK and Irish runners which will be familiar go in this G3 handicap over 1900m. Frankely Awesome will surely do better than she did last time, but I have to be with Mugatoo. He has won half of his 6 starts and has continued his progression in Australia from that he showed in this country. He was 2nd to Young Rascal in a G3 here back in March and than ran as well as could have been expected in G1 company. I thought he wold struggle to win over 1500m 1st up in a Listed contest here a month ago, but he was really impressive in winning. You have to think he will be Caulfield Cup bound and I think he can win this on the way.

Mugatoo @ 5/4 with Betfair

[BillyHills]

Good luck @Darran down under

Not the best Saturday cards Ive ever seen over here but here goes in the two biggest field handicaps of the day

 

405 Redcar

1pt EW Summer Katze 25/1 PP 5 Places
1pt Win Mr Wagyu 13/2 PP

 

350 Windsor

 

1pt Win Glen Esk 11/2 Hills
1pt Costello 7/1 bet365

 

[calva decoy]

Don't fancy much today

250 Wind - Desert Encounter 11/4

745 Red - Frankenstella 11/4  1st ?

2 singles & double bet365

Edited August 29, 2020 by calva decoy
Updated results

[The Equaliser]

One Trixie today for £1 = £4 v poss return of £76.04

12.20 Nm Commonsensical 11/4
2.05 Nm Summerghand 15/8 (looks to good to be true, so it will probably get stuffed)
2.40 Win Desert Encounter 11/4 (loves it at Windsor, should beat Le Don De Vie at this track)

Other bets:

4.30 Nm Clem A 50p win at 14/1
4.30 Nm Lunar Jet 50p win at 14/1

My Kevin Stott fix

3.30 Red Exalted Leader £1 ew at 9/2
4.05 Red Strat Time 50p ew at 12s
4.40 Red Sambucca Spirit £1 win at 3/1
6.45 Red Quiteacatch 50p ew at 25/1

£4 multiples

£6 Singles

= £10 staked

I haven't really worked through the Goodwood card yet but the favourite Subjectivist looks vulnerable in the 3.00

Maybe back later but all looks like heavy going for us punters today

Well, first two blew out of my Trixie.  Stupid late run on Summerghand 

2.40 Win Desert Encounter £2 win at 16/5 ( I hate all this interference with traditional odds fractions)

I made a mistake and laid Pomelo in the 1.50 at Goodwood and made £14.25 (lunch time alcohlic beverage to blame but I'm not complaining)

=================================================================================================

Well the day didn't improve for me.  The final insult was Desert Encounter almost stumbling after clipping its heels.  No worries, I have decided to utilise my desired "lay" bets in a relatively small way from September 1st so as to improve profit and to further protect my bank.  All will be revealed soon.

The multiples lost £4 so the balance c/fwd is now £712.56 (Bank £800)

All my singles bets flopped so a £6 loss.  The balance now C/Fwd is £304.20 (Bank £400)

Goodwood and Perth have some good quality races on tomorrow, though we all still have to contend with the vagaries of soft to heavy going.

 

 

 

Edited August 29, 2020 by The Equaliser
Results Update

[Bathtime For Rupert]

12.35 Windsor - 2pts win Solent Gateway @ 5/1 Bet365

Highest rated runner in the field and although disappointing last time at Haydock, I think is well worth another chance as if he runs anything like his effort when 2nd two starts back, he'll take the world of beating. Was 2nd to a horse who has since run very well in a Group 1 at Deauville, the horse in 3rd is now rated 82 and the horse in 4th rated 90, both of which were comfortably held by Solent Gateway on the day. Both his sire and dam enjoyed soft conditions so although has to bounce back from a below par effort last time, has a good opportunity to do so here.

12.55 Newmarket - 2pts win Grande Rumore @ 7/2 Bet365

Favourite's win at Chepstow looks good but difficult to know what it beat there and this is harder. There's plenty to like about Grande Rumore's form in novices and handicaps so far and these conditions are spot on - 7f on soft ground seems exactly what it wants having faded late on over the mile here last time. It's 7f form suggests this mark isn't beyond its capabilities and can take the beating.

1.15 Goodwood - 1pt e/w Eyes @ 12/1 Hills

With three places on offer I think it's worth chancing Eyes at an each way price having shaped very well at Salisbury last time out. Didn't move well on debut when beaten out of sight and was sent off a huge price at Salisbury but having sat out the back early, made a lot of ground up without the jockey getting serious and finished the race off strongly. If taking another step forward here, can get involved at the business end so long as the ground doesn't pose an issue.

2.05 Newmarket - 1pt win Shabaaby @ 13/2 Bet365

Disappointed a bit at Newbury last time having made a promising reappearance in a Group 3 the time before, keeping on but it's quite plausible the second run came too soon after a significant absence and has been given time since then before making an appearance this afternoon. Would have a big chance on most of its form other than last time out and has bolted up when experiencing soft ground previously so lots in his favour now.

2.25 Goodwood - 2pts win Battered @ 11/2 Bet365

Ended last season quietly but has come down the weights as a result and shaped well on his first start of this season, keeping on from the rear and Chester wasn't the right track for last time for all he still ran respectably. He's off a very fair mark now, this track suits better and soft ground isn't an issue so this represents his most likely assignment of recent times. 

3.50 Windsor - 1pt win Aljalela @ 7/1 Hills

I think there can be more to come from this one on handicap debut having failed to get involved behind smart types the last twice. Ran behind Hukum at Kempton two starts back when beaten 10 lengths and stayed on late at Chepstow again over a mile last time out. That was its first run for a while and this one's attractive pedigree very much suggests it'll come into its own now tackling middle distances. Mark is fairly lowly but should improve now and can get involved if underfoot conditions don't inconvenience.

[richard-westwood]

405 redcar 

Mr wagyu   219 +2 

Chookie dunedin 219 +1 

Almost a tie here and these 2 are a few points clear so I'll play ew because of the ground 

Mr wagyu 5pts ew 11/2 bet365

Chookie dunedin 5pts ew 9/1 betvic

[richard-westwood]

350 winds

Astro man 222 +1 

Saramond 221 

Tricky race but a lot of these are out of form so I'll play ew 

Astroman 5pts ew 5/1 betv

Saramand 5pts ew 16/1 bet365 

[Trotter]

Hollie Doyle rode a 899-1 five timer at Windsor this afternoon !

nice one ..... 

[The Equaliser]

4 hours ago, Trotter said:

Hollie Doyle rode a 899-1 five timer at Windsor this afternoon !

nice one ..... 

I wish I'd followed her instead of Kevin Stott ?

[MCLARKE]

I usually worry when it's a female jockey but had 3 of her winners today so no complaints.