Racing Chat - Friday Aug 21st

[BillyHills]

450 York

1pt EW Grand Rock 12/1 bet365
1pt EW Visinari 7/1 bet365

_______________________________________

145 York

1pt EW Entangling 12/1 betfair
1pt EW Koeman 14/1 bet365

4 x 1pt EW Doubles SP

 

 

[yossa6133]

I like Visinari in the last at York @ 7/1 (bet365). Was a big talking horse after his debut and didn't do much wrong in any of his runs afterwards (only time well beaten was behind Pinatubo and Positive). Ryan Moore back on and he is actually pretty decent on front runners, hopefully he will outclass these and make all (this post was not sponsored by James Willoughby).

[Zilzalian]

Discussion for anyone reading....about group think and missing the obvious in racing (Pyledriver was 1 example), and what we have tomorrow is also a good example, Ornate has finished 3rd twice to Battash the "fastest horse in the world" (the last time beaten 2.5l) You can back Ornate ew at 80/1 8 runners tomorrow on bet365. I could waffle on all night about the thinking behind why Ornate is 80/1 but I wont. Previous runs behind Battash 100/1 placed, 66/1 lost and 33/1 placed.

[Zilzalian]

26 minutes ago, yossa6133 said:

I like Visinari in the last at York @ 7/1 (bet365). Was a big talking horse after his debut and didn't do much wrong in any of his runs afterwards (only time well beaten was behind Pinatubo and Positive). Ryan Moore back on and he is actually pretty decent on front runners, hopefully he will outclass these and make all (this post was not sponsored by James Willoughby).

Agreed

[Trotter]

Bit of a longshot that might have a squeak ......

Wolv 4.40 - Tolstoys Tale - EW at 40/1 bog bet365

two year old maiden race and this one is the outsider of the field making his debut in a novice auction 

I'm basically just going by the trainer.

Peter Charalambous has only had 1 runner in the last two weeks ...... it was a two year old making his debut in a novice auction at Newmarket, went off 22/1 and won by 4 lengths with horses from some big yards - Hannon, Bell, Johnston, O'Meara - trailing behind

Could lightening strike twice ?

[Trotter]

9 hours ago, Zilzalian said:

Discussion for anyone reading....about group think and missing the obvious in racing (Pyledriver was 1 example), and what we have tomorrow is also a good example, Ornate has finished 3rd twice to Battash the "fastest horse in the world" (the last time beaten 2.5l) You can back Ornate ew at 80/1 8 runners tomorrow on bet365. I could waffle on all night about the thinking behind why Ornate is 80/1 but I wont. Previous runs behind Battash 100/1 placed, 66/1 lost and 33/1 placed.

Nice 'shape' for an EW bet on something ...... 8 runners, 3 horses taking nearly all the market, the other 5 at 40/1 plus

If you think there's a weakness in one of the front 3 or just want to take a punt that one of them won't run his race ...... there might be a third place on offer for one of the big priced outsiders

That's how I look at the race

Not sure about Ornate though ...... he has been pretty well beaten in group races at York. You'd think York would suit him as he's all about early speed but he's been beaten 7, 8 and 9 lengths in 3 group races at York 

My fancy for an EW run is Emaraaty Ana .... 50/1. Won the Gimcrack here a couple of years ago. First run at 5 furlongs since his debut ...... I can see him sitting behind Ornate, taking over 3 out and running through the winning line desperately trying to hang on as the 'big three' pounce

In reality Battaash should win with Art Power and A'Ali in the place ........ but you never know, one might not run his race

And of course there's bound to be a non runner to scupper our coups !

[The Equaliser]

One Trixie today (avoiding the hot pots at York)

2.25 Sal Zezania 2/1
2.55 Sal Seventh Kingdom 6/4
3.50 NAb Temple Park 6/4 (Hopefully can give 14lbs to other rivals)

One £1.50 Trixie = £6 v £59.59

Back later with some singles including York

3.55 NAb Postileo £2 win at 9/4

4.20 NAb Twin Star £1 win at 9/4
4.20 NAb Sexy Lot £1 ew at 9/1

5.25 NAb Glengar £2 win at 2/1

4.15 Yk Charmade £1 ew at 7/1

4.50 Yk Hartswood £1 ew at 15/2
 

Total Multiples = £6

Singles  = £11

Total £17

Was too late to put up Naval Crown who had maximum points.  I backed it for £2 win anyway

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Only one winner in the Trixie so a loss of £6.  Balance C/Fwd £746.56 (Bank £800)

Two winners and two place bets = £15.35 Return v  £11 outlay = £4.35 profit.  Singles balance = £329.12 (Bank £400)

Lots of class action at York and Sandown tomorrow wo I will have to be very selective about which races to focus on

 

 

 

 

 

Edited August 21, 2020 by The Equaliser
Results Update

[richard-westwood]

Very close races today as you can see 

450 york 

Eastern world  226 +1 

Finest sound   226+1

Hartswood  224 

Johan 223 +1 

Visinari  221 +1 

Any one of these could potentially win this with only 5 pts separating 1st and 5th but the top 2 are joint rated and have distance form and ground which are plus points plus betfair are offering 7.2 and 7.4 respectively so I'll play 5pts win each 

[Bathtime For Rupert]

1.45 York - 1pt win Alfaatik @ 6/1 Bet365

Very interesting runner to take on Zabeel Champion here but whilst clearly quirky, has the potential to exceed this mark for all there are a couple of question marks. Has been off the track for a long time and showed plenty of temperament in his career so far but also clearly has ability, as shown when winning despite everything going wrong at debut (beating the useful stayer Pianissimo) and in a group race next time out with the blinkers applied. Ran a horrible race when last seen, racing lazily but didn't have headgear on that day and now the blinkers return in addition to a gelding operation which hopefully will allow him to concentrate on the job in hand. Should relish the trip, any ease in the ground that remains won't be a problem on pedigree and looks a live threat if returning in good shape.

2.15 York - 1pt win Eagles by Day @ 17/2 Bet365

Tricky race to call but neither Dashing Willoughby and Nayef Road are going to have it all their own way on the front end and for all shaping like staying, Enbihaar has never run over this trip before so I'm looking at Eagles by Day at the prices who can bide his time and hopefully swoop late here. Was quietly impressive here when winning two starts back over 1m6f, travelling well and staying on strongly late on to seal the deal. Ran pretty well at Goodwood at a big price last time but they didn't go very hard and he couldn't quite get involved with the leaders despite travelling powerfully. The return to a flat track can help here and I don't see any reason why he doesn't stay two miles (dam stayed 2m4f on the flat) so hopefully with a stronger gallop and the return to this venue, he can fulfil his promise as a stayer.

2.45 York - 2pts win Mystery Smiles @ 6/1 Bet365

Minzaal looks promising but until his form has worked out I'll take him on and I like the prospects of Mystery Smiles here. Made a taking debut at Windsor despite being slowly away and a bit outpaced to come through and win well at the line over 5f and won readily at Chester from a good horse whose handicap form stacks up well. Should have plenty more to come and conditions look bang on so I'm hopeful of another good run.

4.50 York - 1pt e/w Cold Front @ 8/1 Bet365

Favourite for all career starts but has found himself constantly bumping into one including Meraas over 6f which he was never likely to win in hindsight and a horse that could be anything the start after at Yarmouth - always pulled on nicely from the horse in 3rd and finally got a deserved win last time when bolting up from the front by four lengths. The horse in second that day has since bolted in itself to get a rating of 89 and Cold Front runs off 91 today which looks more than fair. The step up to a mile should be no problem and looks capable of taking this in his stride.

[richard-westwood]

Well Jim crowley is riding like a demon today so I'll take the prices 11/4 and 7/4 on tawleed and asiaaf in next 2 races to try and squeeze some profit out 

2x5pt wins