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Maria Patricia Tig (+1.5 Sets) vs Barbora Krejcikova at 1.44 with bet365

First round of the WTA Prague. I consider Tig as a better player than Krejcikova. Both players have a very good record on this surface but Tig has played more WTA events than the Czech player. She did a good season on clay in 2019, reaching the Final in Bucharest (coming from the qualy), beating there Bondar, Sevastova, Krystina Pliskova and Siegemund on the main draw. She lost the Final against Rybakina.  After that she won in Karlsruhe, where she won against Krejcikova in the first round in 2 sets (6-3, 6-4), and then against Ruse, Gorgodze, Paolini and Van Uytvanck. The rumanian holds some big wins on this surface (Keys, Kasatkina, Stephens,...) and, as I said, I consider her a better player than the Czech (at singles, of course...). I like how she played against Kontaveit in the first round of the WTA Palermo. She lost in straight sets (6-3, 6-3) but she played so much better than the result suggest. Krejcivoka has won a lot of exhibition matches during the pandemic, but most of them have been against low ranked players except for a couple of them (Siniakova and Muchova). The last match she played was one week ago, in Svijany (a match she lost in 2 sets against Kolodziejova). I think Tig can win the match but I will not risk too much and I will go with set handicap.

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Barbora Strycova to beat Sara Sorribes Tormo at 1.69 with Pinnacle

Eugenie Bouchard to beat Veronika Kudermetova at 2.62 with Pinnacle

Alright, I don't see anything interesting in Lexington, but I do see two bets that I like in Prague. The first is on Strycova to beat Tormo. Both have played a lot of exhos in the meantime, but Strycova was playing on the higher level and should be more prepared. She's not as strong as Yastremska, who beat Tormo last time out, but she's strong on home turf and should be used to the conditions. Meanwhile, I like Bouchard as a value play on match practice terms, Kudermetova hasn't done anything during the off-time, while Bouchard has done surprisingly much in all fairness. I wouldn't touch her below 2.30, but I think she's worth a punt at the current odds.

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Watson to beat Brady at 2.75 with bet365

Honestly i haven’t watch single match of Watson in the Battle of the Brits. But she has all the weapons needed to beat Brady. Their last match was a long time ago, 2017, so it is not a massive factor today. Since the late 2019 season the Brit found her form and managed to reach 1 final in Tianjin, 1 semi-final in Hobart and won 1 title in Acapulco, all 3 of the tournaments are hard and outdoor tournaments like this one in Lexington.

This is two way match and both players are able to win it. Honestly the only reason why I choose Watson is the odds which personaly for me are way too high for a player with so much EX. and 4 titles under her belt against player with no WTA finals.

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WTA Prague
Patricia Maria Tig - Barbora Krejcikova  1@
2.09  10/10 flat stake at pinnacle 

Tig made great comeback last year, after injury and pregnancy break. Especially on clay (without rankings) she made finals in Bucurest and title in Karlsruhe. But at the end of the season, she was out of gas,and stayed around 80th place. She was very consistant this season as well, with two ITF finals and WTA semis in Thailand before covid break. Last week in Palermo, in her first match after a long time, she played very good and almost euqually vs later finalist Kontaveit.

Krejcikova is unsuccesfully trying to reach top100 for  5years already. Her movement is her biggest weakness. She spent covid break on home clay, winning two events, but vs players outside top300. She was quite poor yesterday in her doubles match. 

I see Tig as the better singles player on clay and also overall (35places higher in the ranks) and won with Bara last year in Karlsruhe 6-4 6-3. Barbora will have just small advantage on home courts without fans. Tig cant be an outsider here. GL

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WTA Prague

Giorgi to beat Kostyuk @ 1.93 with Betfair

Will this one will definitely be easy on the eye.

I watched Giorgi's run in Palermo and she was hitting it very clean, when she's in the mood she's very hard to play against. But she needs to be clinical on her own serve, she's aggressive and high risk. Expect lots of break of serve.

I fancy Giorgi.. to come into this and take the fight to Kostyuk. Kostyuk is coming off a 6-0 6-0 win so is obviously in good form however I think thats inflated her price here.
Sanders didn't bring anywhere near as much firepower as Giorgi does and if Giorgi hitting the hard flat deep balls I think she'll break her down.

 

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Irina Begu to beat Leonie Kung at 1.50 with Pinnacle

Begu might've messed up in Palermo, but she was way better in her first match in Prague and she still has the right skills for clay. Kung is nothing special, promising once but hasn't really stepped up yet and her recent performances aren't inspiring either. I'm a bit afraid of the handicap line, as I can see Begu losing a set even by two breaks, but she should outlast Kung in the end. Hoping for a 2-0 win, but anything will do.

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Elise Mertens to beat Camilla Giorgi at 1.7 with bet365 

I know Giorgi is in good form but come on, Mertens is better than her in every aspect of the game. Makes sense to beat the Italian, I think she's gonna win the first set and the match. 

Edited by Foo_Fighter
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2 hours ago, Foo_Fighter said:

Elise Mertens to beat Camilla Giorgi at 1.7 with bet365 

I know Giorgi is in good form but come on, Mertens is better than her in every aspect of the game. Makes sense to beat the Italian, I think she's gonna win the first set and the match. 

Thanks for making me more convinced in Elise to be the winner of this match. I tried set handicap -1.5 sets on Elise so thank you for posting.

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WTA Prague
Eugénie Bouchard - Tamara Zidansek 
1@2.21 10/10 flat stake at pinnacle

Bouchard is clearly improving. After her record 15L streak last year she took a month break, and came back stronger despite her retirement in huge cold weather in Houston. She played solid in Australia and also friendlies during covid. She started to work with Stubbs, who is one of the best women coaches and her first official match under her in Prague was impressive. She gave no chance to Kudermetova, who is quite ok normally.

Now she will face Zidansek, who won over struggling Siniakova today with troubles. In Palermo she showed, that she doesnt like to be under constant pressure as she coudlnt handle Dodins big hits. Conditions in Prague are quite fast and I believe that Zidansek defence wont be enough vs "reborn" Bouchard. I dont think Genie will repeat her perfect performance vs better defence and movement of Zidansek (in compare to Kudermetova), but still see her as fav in this one and was expecting odds well below 2,0 on her. GL

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Eugenie Bouchard (+1.5 sets) to beat Elise Mertens at 2.03 with Pinnacle

Going to jump on the Genie bandwagon again after missing it. I obviously liked what she did in her first match here and I also liked the fight she showed against Zidansek today. She's got a losing record against Mertens, but Mertens has been unconvincing so far and she'll be relying mostly on Bouchard to start missing. That tactic worked against Giorgi and it might very well work here as well, but Bouchard has been largely on point so far and I think that she's at least 60/40 to win a set.

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US Open latest is that Andreescu has withdrawn - not directly due to the virus but indirectly as it's affected her ability to recover from injury, Halep is expected to pull out because of the virus and Djokovic has confirmed his participation - apparently it was a difficult decision. I'm not buying that though, as I'm pretty sure there could be an apocalypse going on and he'd be taking part given that it's an opportunity to add to his Grand Slam tally without Nadal and Federer potentially getting in the way.

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WTA Lexington
Catherine Cartan Bellis - Jil Belen Teichmann 
1@1.53 10/10 flat stake at pinnacle

Bellis was junior nr1 and big talent, with top40 at the age of 17, but got injured and had to break her career for almost 2 years. She restarted at the end of last year, with very soft and cautious tennis. Also in Australia she played quite soft tennis, with minimum mistakes and winners. But here, after covid break she add much more agression and won easily with Di Lorenzo and on hard very strong Pegula.

Teichmann is claycourter, with negative hard record on WTA level. Here she forced Kalinskaya to lot of unforced errors and yesterday won every close game vs Putintseva, for surprisingly easy win. Bellis will put her under bigger pressure than previous opponents and I believe in a comfortable win here.

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1 minute ago, Foo_Fighter said:

Guys, do you think Serena will beat Shelby Rogers? Should I trust her @1.25? 

At those odds, not worth it. Also unsure how committed Serena is to this tournament. Might be worth investigating the +1.5 set handicap on Rogers (haven't checked odds on that but I imagine it'd represent value).

Edited by South_African_Punter
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Teichmann to beat Rogers at 2.20 with bet365 (LEXINGTON WTA)

Theoretically Rogers is the clear favorite in this match, it is home tournament for her, she is better on hard court (Teichmann has negative record on hard) and last round she beat S. Williams which could give her a massive impulse for today’s match. But we can’t neglect Teichmann’s form and the way she is playing this week. 3 very good matches from her where she was the aggressor even though she is claycourted. If Teichmann plays today like yesterday she would be able to win the match. 

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Teichmann to win a set v Jennifer Brady 1.83 @ Bet365

She is playing a similar player to Rogers. Someone who is a bigger hitter and pretty much plays one way. Teichmann will bring her variety and a few balls with spin to her shots which will trouble Brady as it did v Rogers. I think she is good value for a set. Brady looks overvalued based on it being a home tournament.

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