nenad986 Posted July 30, 2020 Share Posted July 30, 2020 (edited) From 01.08.2020. will start to post DRAW bets daily ( not every day if cant find some good value) and will continue doing it all year. We will see what will be on long run with Super DRAW bets. Basicly i use game when we expect to DRAW is over 34% so on long run this will bring us good profit. Every bet will be flat bet with same amount every time, in other words, 1pt per bet. 2020/2021 profit/lose (win bets/all bets): August: - 0.01 pt (12/40) September: - 11.73 pt (7/34) October: --------------------------------- Total: -11.74 pt (19/74) Edited September 29, 2020 by nenad986 Count on profit/lose by months and years. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
darksidersfk Posted July 31, 2020 Share Posted July 31, 2020 Hello, lately I was wondering what to look in a game to see if it is a good match to bet on a draw or not, do you have any tips to what to look for? Less goals, teams in the "same" position in the table, last results? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nenad986 Posted July 31, 2020 Author Share Posted July 31, 2020 3 hours ago, darksidersfk said: Hello, lately I was wondering what to look in a game to see if it is a good match to bet on a draw or not, do you have any tips to what to look for? Less goals, teams in the "same" position in the table, last results? I use some source with % of chance to be DRAW for this selection, when % is 34 and over. I pick top 10 bets on the day for DRAW and cut most of them with usualy 1 to 3 games to play on daily. Somtime i have 10 pick but not one to play for this selection. We will see. Last 6 months i get very good result on this selection with not big number of bets. I have many other way how to pick DRAW and on long run get good profit, but that other system need very big number of game to play so not easy to post on forum every day, even if that is bettar that this one. We will se if 6 months good ROI and profit will continue. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
darksidersfk Posted July 31, 2020 Share Posted July 31, 2020 3 hours ago, nenad986 said: I use some source with % of chance to be DRAW for this selection, when % is 34 and over. I pick top 10 bets on the day for DRAW and cut most of them with usualy 1 to 3 games to play on daily. Somtime i have 10 pick but not one to play for this selection. We will see. Last 6 months i get very good result on this selection with not big number of bets. I have many other way how to pick DRAW and on long run get good profit, but that other system need very big number of game to play so not easy to post on forum every day, even if that is bettar that this one. We will se if 6 months good ROI and profit will continue. Ok man, nice one. Waiting for those tips now ? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nenad986 Posted July 31, 2020 Author Share Posted July 31, 2020 01.08.2020 I find one game that show 34% to be draw tomorrow, with good odd. Always going 1pt per bet. Like i said before this selection give very nice result for past 6 month, so i will start to post it for everyone. Past result on this small amount of game is not garant for big profit in future, but becous result is amaizing for now i will post public. Other draw system i use need to play very big numer of game so imposible and hard for me to poste. So will try this simpl with 25-40 game on monthe basis. Lets go for first one. 1. 20:45 Napoli - Lazio - DRAW - 4.00 bet365 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nenad986 Posted August 1, 2020 Author Share Posted August 1, 2020 Result 01.08.2020 Profit/lose: -1.00 pt (0/1) - (win bets/ all bets) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nenad986 Posted August 1, 2020 Author Share Posted August 1, 2020 02.08.2020 No game to bet. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nenad986 Posted August 2, 2020 Author Share Posted August 2, 2020 03.08.2020. - 1 game for bet on draw (34%) 1. 19:00 - Orgryte - Vasteras SK - draw 3.40 bet365 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nenad986 Posted August 3, 2020 Author Share Posted August 3, 2020 Result 03.08.2020. - lose Profit/lose: -2.00pt (0/2) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nenad986 Posted August 4, 2020 Author Share Posted August 4, 2020 04.08.2020. No game to bet. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nenad986 Posted August 5, 2020 Author Share Posted August 5, 2020 05.08.2020. - 1 game to bet on draw (34%) 1. 17:30 - Haka - HIFK - draw 3.50 bet365 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nenad986 Posted August 5, 2020 Author Share Posted August 5, 2020 Result 05.08.2020. - lose Profit/lose: -3.00pt (0/3) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nenad986 Posted August 6, 2020 Author Share Posted August 6, 2020 06.08.2020. - 3 games to bet today. 1. 19:00 - IFK Goteborg - Ostersunds FK - Draw 4.20 bet365 (35%) 2. 19:00 - Mjallby AIF - IK Sirus - Draw 3.50 bet365 (34%) 3. 21:00 - Basel - Eintracht Frankfurt - Draw 3.90 bet365 (35%) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nenad986 Posted August 6, 2020 Author Share Posted August 6, 2020 (edited) Results 06.08.2020. + 4.70pt (2/3) - Very bad luck on Basel game. In last 2 minuts of game Basel score. But ok, good profit for today. Profit/lose: +1.70pt (2/6) Edited August 6, 2020 by nenad986 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nenad986 Posted August 6, 2020 Author Share Posted August 6, 2020 07.08.2020. - No game to bet. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nenad986 Posted August 8, 2020 Author Share Posted August 8, 2020 08.08.2020. - 3 games to bet today. 1. 19:00 - Ruzemberok - Trencin - draw 3.40 bet365 (34%) 2. 20:00 - Cobh Ramblers - Galway - draw 3.25 bet365 (34%) 3. 00:30 - Coritiba - Internacional - draw 3.40 bet365 (35%) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
froment Posted August 8, 2020 Share Posted August 8, 2020 11 hours ago, nenad986 said: 19:00 - Ruzemberok - Trencin - draw 3.40 bet365 (34%) This time luck was on your side, Ruzomberok went from 0-2 to 2-2 literally with the final whistle! Nice start to the day, you secured profit. Good luck with your venture! nenad986 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nenad986 Posted August 8, 2020 Author Share Posted August 8, 2020 (edited) 1 hour ago, froment said: This time luck was on your side, Ruzomberok went from 0-2 to 2-2 literally with the final whistle! Nice start to the day, you secured profit. Good luck with your venture! Yep this time we get 2 win bet in last minutes of game. Cobh Ramblers score in 90. minuts of game. We can call it luck, becouse luck is immportant, but i still hope and bet on probability to go in our side. I not sure about august, becouse last two months i get 25/50 on this tips, with score of profit +36,23pt , so I expect some low month after all ,but we will see. Edited August 8, 2020 by nenad986 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nenad986 Posted August 9, 2020 Author Share Posted August 9, 2020 Results 08.08.2020. +3.65pt (2/3) Profit/lose: +5.35pt (4/9) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nenad986 Posted August 9, 2020 Author Share Posted August 9, 2020 09.08.2020. - No game to bet. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Suproni Posted August 9, 2020 Share Posted August 9, 2020 Hello there! This is interesting. I'm thinking to apply a strategy to find a decent strike rate on draws. I would take matches where home and away teams are priced between 2 and 3, and where away team is above on general standings, assuming the home advantage would be canceled in some way. What are your selections criteria to calculate the draw probability you are taking about? I thought you used elo club rating but when I see elo rating for matches, draw probability never reaches 34%. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
froment Posted August 9, 2020 Share Posted August 9, 2020 8 minutes ago, Suproni said: I would take matches where home and away teams are priced between 2 and 3, and where away team is above on general standings, assuming the home advantage would be canceled in some way. Hi, Suproni, to the forum! Check CGMBet software by @giraldi here: I believe you can easily extract historical data with these criteria you mentioned, to backtest your system. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Suproni Posted August 9, 2020 Share Posted August 9, 2020 Hello Giraldi, For the criteria about odds between 2 and 3 I can easily backtest but for the criteria about the standing of home and away teams I did not find a site where we can see the standing of a team after each tour of a championship. Do you have an idea? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nenad986 Posted August 9, 2020 Author Share Posted August 9, 2020 4 hours ago, Suproni said: Hello there! This is interesting. I'm thinking to apply a strategy to find a decent strike rate on draws. I would take matches where home and away teams are priced between 2 and 3, and where away team is above on general standings, assuming the home advantage would be canceled in some way. What are your selections criteria to calculate the draw probability you are taking about? I thought you used elo club rating but when I see elo rating for matches, draw probability never reaches 34%. Hi Suproni. This tips is from my own expirience and probability. I have CGMBet from long ago and he is good, but i not use it for this DRAW tips. I playing some serius DRAW sistem with over 1500 game per year, with very nice multi-year profit,, but hard for me to post evryday somthing like that. This is where i aiming for only 20-40 game per month and try to stay in good profit like it is like last few months. Becouse, if this continu to have good result all year, thi sis somthing easy to fallow for anyone. Other draw system have too many game and hard to organize on forum. I use ELO rating for find strong home and away win with bigg odds, and some game for CS 1:1, and few other things like Home tema who have progresion in form with big odds, etc. but for this tip i didnt use ELO. Tip is just my selection base on posability and statistic. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nenad986 Posted August 9, 2020 Author Share Posted August 9, 2020 10.08.2020. - 2 games to bet today. 1. 18:00 - Ull/Kisa - Asane - draw 3.60 bet365 2. 23:00 - Boa - Volta Redonda - draw 3.00 bet365 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nenad986 Posted August 9, 2020 Author Share Posted August 9, 2020 10.08.2020. - 1 more game for tuesday after midnight, so i miss it. 3. 01:00 (11.08.2020.) - Londrina - Ciricuma draw (no odd atm, only on UNIBET, so will wait for today to show in bet365 and will edit post later) (36%) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gedkip Posted August 10, 2020 Share Posted August 10, 2020 5 hours ago, nenad986 said: 10.08.2020. - 1 more game for tuesday after midnight, so i miss it. 3. 01:00 (11.08.2020.) - Londrina - Ciricuma draw (no odd atm, only on UNIBET, so will wait for today to show in bet365 and will edit post later) (36%) There is high probability for draw in the two games you posted. Check below on my slip Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nenad986 Posted August 10, 2020 Author Share Posted August 10, 2020 7 hours ago, Gedkip said: There is high probability for draw in the two games you posted. Check below on my slip Yep i know that we can find bettar odds and i am always going bettar odds for myself on local booki in my country, but i trying to post only bet365 most time to be transparent for everyone. Unibet have odds for Londrina game from last night, but now many booki have it so i will edit my post up. And odds is a bit low but still over 2.90 so this time i think we are going for this bet. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nenad986 Posted August 10, 2020 Author Share Posted August 10, 2020 13 hours ago, nenad986 said: 10.08.2020. - 1 more game for tuesday after midnight, so i miss it. 3. 01:00 (11.08.2020.) - Londrina - Ciricuma draw (no odd atm, only on UNIBET, so will wait for today to show in bet365 and will edit post later) (36%) draw 2.87 bet365 - You can find it on many global booki around 2.90 and i just post bet365 to be easy for everyone and most transparent. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nenad986 Posted August 11, 2020 Author Share Posted August 11, 2020 Results 10.08.2020. +2.87pt (2/3) Profit/lose: +8.24pt (6/12) dj.orange 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
.thumb.jpg.32384c3055cbc1254b0eb6212fda1359.jpg)
Recommended Posts
Join the conversation
You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.
Note: Your post will require moderator approval before it will be visible.