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nenad986

Super Draw Bet by Hronman

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From 01.08.2020. will start to post DRAW bets daily ( not every day if cant find some good value) and will continue doing it all year. We will see what will be on long run with Super DRAW bets. Basicly i use game when we expect to DRAW is over 34% so on long run this will bring us good profit. Every bet will be flat bet with same amount every time, in other words, 1pt per bet. 

Edited by nenad986

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Hello, lately I was wondering what to look in a game to see if it is a good match to bet on a draw or not, do you have any tips to what to look for? Less goals, teams in the "same" position in the table, last results?

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3 hours ago, darksidersfk said:

Hello, lately I was wondering what to look in a game to see if it is a good match to bet on a draw or not, do you have any tips to what to look for? Less goals, teams in the "same" position in the table, last results?

I use some source with % of chance to be DRAW for this selection, when % is 34 and over. I pick top 10 bets on the day for DRAW and cut most of them with usualy 1 to 3 games to play on daily. Somtime i have 10 pick but not one to play for this selection. We will see. Last 6 months i get very good result on this selection with not big number of bets. I have many other way how to pick DRAW and on long run get good profit, but that other system need very big number of game to play so not easy to post on forum every day, even if that is bettar that this one. We will se if 6 months good ROI and profit will continue. 

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3 hours ago, nenad986 said:

I use some source with % of chance to be DRAW for this selection, when % is 34 and over. I pick top 10 bets on the day for DRAW and cut most of them with usualy 1 to 3 games to play on daily. Somtime i have 10 pick but not one to play for this selection. We will see. Last 6 months i get very good result on this selection with not big number of bets. I have many other way how to pick DRAW and on long run get good profit, but that other system need very big number of game to play so not easy to post on forum every day, even if that is bettar that this one. We will se if 6 months good ROI and profit will continue. 

Ok man, nice one. Waiting for those tips now 💪

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01.08.2020   

I find one game that show 34% to be draw tomorrow, with good odd. Always going 1pt per bet. Like i said before this selection give very nice result for past 6 month, so i will start to post it for everyone. Past result on this small amount of game is not garant for big profit in future, but becous result is amaizing for now i will post public. Other draw system i use need to play very big numer of game so imposible and hard for me to poste. So will try this simpl with 25-40 game on monthe basis. Lets go for first one.

1. 20:45 Napoli - Lazio - DRAW - 4.00 bet365 

 

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Results 06.08.2020.   + 4.70pt (2/3) - Very bad luck on Basel game. In last 2 minuts of game Basel score. But ok, good profit for today.

Profit/lose: +1.70pt (2/6)

Screenshot_2.png

Edited by nenad986

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11 hours ago, nenad986 said:

19:00 - Ruzemberok - Trencin - draw 3.40 bet365 (34%)

This time luck was on your side, Ruzomberok went from 0-2 to 2-2 literally with the final whistle! Nice start to the day, you secured profit. Good luck with your venture! :ok

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1 hour ago, froment said:

This time luck was on your side, Ruzomberok went from 0-2 to 2-2 literally with the final whistle! Nice start to the day, you secured profit. Good luck with your venture! :ok

Yep this time we get 2 win bet in last minutes of game. Cobh Ramblers score in 90. minuts of game. We can call it luck, becouse luck is immportant, but i still hope and bet on probability to go in our side. I not sure about august, becouse last two months i get 25/50 on this tips, with score of profit +36,23pt , so I expect some low month after all ,but we will see. 

Edited by nenad986

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Hello there! 

This is interesting. I'm thinking to apply a strategy to find a decent strike rate on draws. I would take matches where home and away teams are priced between 2 and 3, and where away team is above on general standings, assuming the home advantage would be canceled in some way. What are your selections criteria to calculate the draw probability you are taking about? I thought you used elo club rating but when I see elo rating for matches, draw probability never reaches 34%. 

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8 minutes ago, Suproni said:

I would take matches where home and away teams are priced between 2 and 3, and where away team is above on general standings, assuming the home advantage would be canceled in some way.

Hi, Suproni, :welcome to the forum!

Check CGMBet software by @giraldi here:

I believe you can easily extract historical data with these criteria you mentioned, to backtest your system.

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Hello Giraldi, 

For the criteria about odds between 2 and 3 I can easily backtest but for the criteria about the standing of home and away teams I did not find a site where we can see the standing of a team after each tour of a championship. Do you have an idea? 

 

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4 hours ago, Suproni said:

Hello there! 

This is interesting. I'm thinking to apply a strategy to find a decent strike rate on draws. I would take matches where home and away teams are priced between 2 and 3, and where away team is above on general standings, assuming the home advantage would be canceled in some way. What are your selections criteria to calculate the draw probability you are taking about? I thought you used elo club rating but when I see elo rating for matches, draw probability never reaches 34%. 

Hi Suproni. This tips is from my own expirience and probability. I have CGMBet from long ago and he is good, but i not use it for this DRAW tips. I playing some serius DRAW sistem with over 1500 game per year, with very nice multi-year profit,, but hard for me to post evryday somthing like that. This is where i aiming for only 20-40 game per month and try to stay in good profit like it is like last few months. Becouse, if this continu to have good result all year, thi sis somthing easy to fallow for anyone. Other draw system have too many game and hard to organize on forum. I use ELO rating for find strong home and away win with bigg odds, and some game for CS 1:1, and few other things like Home tema who have progresion in form with big odds, etc. but for this tip i didnt use ELO. Tip is just my selection base on posability and statistic. 

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10.08.2020. - 1 more game for tuesday after midnight, so i miss it. 

3.  01:00 (11.08.2020.) - Londrina - Ciricuma draw (no odd atm, only on UNIBET, so will wait for today to show in bet365 and will edit post later)  (36%)

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5 hours ago, nenad986 said:

10.08.2020. - 1 more game for tuesday after midnight, so i miss it. 

3.  01:00 (11.08.2020.) - Londrina - Ciricuma draw (no odd atm, only on UNIBET, so will wait for today to show in bet365 and will edit post later)  (36%)

There is high probability for draw in the two games you posted. Check below on my slip

share_1597036134866.jpeg

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7 hours ago, Gedkip said:

There is high probability for draw in the two games you posted. Check below on my slip

share_1597036134866.jpeg

Yep i know that we can find bettar odds and i am always going bettar odds for myself on local booki in my country, but i trying to post only bet365 most time to be transparent for everyone. Unibet have odds for Londrina game from last night, but now many booki have it so i will edit my post up. And odds is a bit low but still over 2.90 so this time i think we are going for this bet.

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13 hours ago, nenad986 said:

10.08.2020. - 1 more game for tuesday after midnight, so i miss it. 

3.  01:00 (11.08.2020.) - Londrina - Ciricuma draw (no odd atm, only on UNIBET, so will wait for today to show in bet365 and will edit post later)  (36%)

draw 2.87 bet365 - You can find it on many global booki around 2.90 and i just post bet365 to be easy for everyone and most transparent. 

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