Tennis Tips - August 3 - August 9

[CzechPunter]

Fingers crossed!

[Grass Cash]

Holy Palermo.. Wow CP .. You are right on top of this hungry for some real matches.. I just came across this tournament on 5dimes.. Hoping my local bookie is going to offer also. I'm trying to come up with something that feels solid.. 

[darko08]

Haven't seen the exhibition matches of these days so i won't make predictions. Anyway, i'm eager to see your predictions for this first real tournament, guys.

[CzechPunter]

Anett Kontaveit (-1.5 sets) to beat Patricia Maria Tig at 1.85 with Pinnacle

Kristyna Pliskova (+1.5 sets) to beat Maria Sakkari at 1.73 with Pinnacle

Picking two players that have played tennis in the meantime against players that haven't - or at least as far as I'm aware of. Kontaveit is leagues above Tig when on song and she's beaten some top players in recent exhibitions, while Pliskova is always capable of performing against better players thanks to her serve and she should be able to steal at least a set here more often than not.

[Grass Cash]

There is quite a few Romanians in the draw. I do believe we're going to see some sort of surprise with this..  For me I'm thinking Begu or this Loana Paar player I'm unfamiliar with.. One of them has the chance to advance, and they are both live dogs in my mind.. Not an official play or anything. I'm not offered betting lines yet, and also not super confident with it.. Just throwing some opinions out there to be heard or discussed. ?

[Grass Cash]

I'd have to rate Paar as the better bet because I think they both have nearly an equal chance to win for some reason.. Now with Paar we are getting far better odds than Begu.  As I mentioned I don't know this Paar player or seen tape on her, but feels like a clay specialist grinder coming in with good form here late in her career.

[Toptipsters]

Ekaterina Alexandrova - Kristina Mladenovic 
Mladenovic @ 1.96 flat 10/10 pinnacle

Alexandrova made big progress last season, when she moved from 75th to 25th place, but she made all points on fast surfaces. Clay is her worse surface with 19W 28L career record on WTA level. During covid break she played two events in Czech. In the first one she wasnt ready at all, in the 2nd she was little better and won over Vondrousova, but Marketa was so bad in that match.

Mladenovic is also not best on clay, but made several good results last season in Rome and Madrid. She spent the covid period on hard mostly, with ok results, but its hard to say how she will be on clay. Last 10 days she is practising on clay already. Overall Alexandrova is the better player, but not on clay. On clay I see Kiki as small fav and anything over 1,85 is ok for a bet. 

[Grass Cash]

GL top .. I have no faith in Kiki at this price vs a top player.. I like the activity here though man .. Stay strong amigo 

[South_African_Punter]

Phew, finally tennis resumes! Been keeping myself betting on e-sports and other minor sports (e.g. darts) for the last while. Don't have any tips just yet - want to watch a few matches before I part with my money. Also as @money44 said, great to see this place so lively after such a long pause!

[darko08]

Alexandrova is one of the most underrated players in the bettors community i probably seen in the last years. I constantly see bettors going against her and i don't understand why and i wonder how many more matches and tournaments she has to win to change that. I remember to all of you that she won 2 consecutive tournaments (Limoges and Shenzhen) in December 2019 and January 2020 (just before the pandemic started) beating there players like Muguruza, Rybakina, Q.Wang, etc. I have to say that she's the kind of player that rarely "go against the odds" (when she is the fav one she usually wins and when she's the non favorite one she usually loses). I'm not sure but in this case something similar has occurred (she came out as the favorite one but the odds finally have been inverted). Personally, I lost my faith in Mladenovic on singles so long ago and i only see her as a very good doubles player (actually, the best). I have never seen her as a top 10 singles player and if she reached that position long time ago it was because she took advantage of the circumstances the circuit was passing on that time (a lack of good and constant players).

[CzechPunter]

 @freeyourself84 What good is that comment for?

[darko08]

Taking a look at the draw, I see a lot of big dogs in the first half (Martic, Kontaveit, Siegemund, Mertens) but the second half looks quite open... Vondrosouva is the favorite one for that half, but she has been a mess since RG so my confidence on her has dropped. One point on her favour is that she has played a lot of exhibition matches (9), with very mixed results. She faces another young talent who holds an impressive record on this surface. Juvan has already played 3 matches here (Frech, Ruse and Trevisan) and that will make things harder for Vondrousova till the point that I wouldn't be surprised if she loses the match. I know I said I wouldn't bet for a while but i like this match too much to not make a try here. I expect a hard match for both so I definitely go with an over

Kaja Juvan vs Marketa Vondrousova - Over 19.5 Games at 1.72 with 888

[CzechPunter]

@freeyourself84 That's fair enough, but punters that have only criticized without adding much, if anything, on their own have always been looked down on here.

[Grass Cash]

@freeyourself84 .. I agree with czech.. try and keep the forum clean with good attitudes, and discussion of tennis.. Otherwise these places can get too toxic. Good luck !

[Grass Cash]

Pliskova was a banker bet.. Good pick on that +1.5 sets.. I wish i pulled that trigger.. I seen Sakkari didn't look in form especially for a clay court match vs a big hitter.. Great call though Czech.. Just another tally on a outright win for your handicap pick. Pure gold... Then Errani was the other value play.. They'll matchup against each other, and Pliskova is a good size favorite.. I feel its warranted, and won't be betting on Errani.  I'm giving czech player 75% chances. 

[Grass Cash]

The little bit that I've seen from Donna Vekic practice.. She's hitting the ball clean, and in primo form for Palermo.. Dusting Rus in the first round is another good sign, but I have no idea how Cocciaretto is going to compete with the firepower and experience of Vekic.. I'd be pretty shocked if there was n upset with this match. Home Italians have made their waves already.. Path is now paved for Vekic, and certainly one of the top four contenders to win the tournament alongside Mertens, Vondrousova, and Kontaveit. Krystyna Pliskova is a dark horse.. I'm not sure how good she is playing.. The win over Sakkari hasn't sold me yet. The tournament feels pretty wide open, so there could be a chance for someone to sneak in there and grab the trophy, but out of those four players I prefer Vekic. So, this makes me believe that she'll make quick work of the young italian in straight sets. 

I actually completely forgot about Alexandrova and Yastremska as Title contenders... whom i might rate as greater chances than Vekic or atleast the same level.. 

Donna Vekic -286 to beat Cocciaretto with Pinnacle

 

Edited August 4, 2020 by money44
Additional title contenders

[darko08]

I watched the whole second set between Errani and Cirstea and I saw the italian showing some signs of tiredness... When the set ended i changed to another match and i was very surprised when i saw that the italian finally took the third one. As far as I know neither of these players played exhibition matches so it was a little bit hard to predict what could happen in this one but now I can't imagine Krystina losing against the italian... She is well prepared for this tournament (a lot of exhibition matches played during the pandemic) and she has already beat a so much better player in the first round so I think like @money44 here, what do you think @CzechPunter ?

[vvararu]

Today's Vondrousova is yesterday's Kasatkina... if someone watched both matches.... 

[darko08]

omg, what a crazy match... Juvan been destroyed in the first set, then she almost lost a lead of 4-0 in the second set and finally she won the 
third set after requiring a medical timeout at the end of the second one. My thoughts were that the winner of this match would be the favorite for the next round. Neither Giorgi nor Peterson have good results on this surface. Besides, neither of them has played exhibition matches so I expect Juvan to reach also the third round. My only concern is that muscular overcharge on her thigh... but i think it was nothing serious.

[Grass Cash]

@darko08 

1. Javan looks slow and worn down to me -- I think Peterson or Giorgi can win that match in the next round

2. Yastremska should beat Dodin who also is not impressing me, but less confident with that one

3. Sasnovich should be able to beat Paolini.. She looked good form to me today beating Mertens

4. Samsonova is a very talented player.. I don't know what her status is physically.. have not seen her recent matches. 

5. Alexandrova should advance past Ferro or Podoroska in the next round. 

6. Siegemund has potential for an upset in the next round.. I'm uncertain with this matchup, and her opponent is still unknown. 

 

[CzechPunter]

No idea guys, haven't caught up yet and not sure I will until tomorrow!

[Torque]

FWIW I'm a fan of Siegemund. She seems to give it everything she's got and to be quite stable in her performance levels and results - not that I have any numbers to back that up it's just anecdotal.

[Grass Cash]

Well Gentleman.. the zombies have risen today.. Ferro has opened up as the favorite against the most underrated player on tour Ekaterina Alexandrova.  Having said that.. I"m still not confident Alexandrova wins , but she looked good in the highlights I saw from her match. Probably will have to auto-bet this tomorrow, and i'm already a little bit excited about it .. the problem is I have other matches that I'm much more confident such as Vekic.. Italians might be on thin ice soon as Giorgi seems to be in some trouble vs Peterson. So fading all the italians tomorrow makes perfect sense to me.. I think Errani has some chances and maybe Paolini, but as I've said Sasnovich played quite well, and she seems healthy enough.. I have no idea how well Paolini is playing but certainly this girl is some future clay court specialist with alot of potential. 

[Torque]

So Nadal has now confirmed what many suspected by withdrawing from the US Open. The Madrid Open on the clay has also been cancelled due to a rise in virus cases in Spain.

[darko08]

@money44 Ferro is a pure claycourter. She has played several matches during the pandemic and she has destroyed Podoroska (6-1, 6-2) in the first round. Alexandrova has never done nothing remarkable on this surface. Personally, i would avoid this match. Agree with Siegemund upsetting Kontaveit (i guess she will win against Tig). She's a pure claycourter and she's also well prepared (she has played 14 exhibition matches on clay during the pandemic!), and she's a fighter, of course (let's see what the odds are for this one). 

[Grass Cash]

I agree ... I'm not super confident with Alexandrova... Ferro is a wildcard, but I'm sure Ekaterina's serve is 100 times better, and also she is playing well enough form what I saw.. 

I did watch some of the end Giorgi and Peterson.. I was leaning Giorgi.. but i saw no evidence of her current form, and I've lost on her too many times in the past to feel comfortable.. 

I did see some of the Juvan - Vondrousova match as I mentioned earlier.. I am thinking Marketa going to win that match, and i missed most of the second half of it.. I think Marketa's form was probably bad, and slipping.. Javan really looked slow and hobbling around.. 

To sum things up.. Giorgi seemed with incredible shape, and Italy is supporting her here.. I think she wants to advance in her country.. and I'm dialing her up as the winner in the next round.. 

I think the odds are going to slightly favor Giorgi around -125, but I'm hoping for a better price than that.. Nonetheless .. I feel more comfortable with this bet than Alexandrova, but I will still consider Ekaterina, and have some thinking to do about that because I don't believe she should be the underdog.. 

If Ferro beats Podoroska .. thats fine but Nadia was coming off two tough three set matches, and she's not comparable to the talent she'll be facing in the next round. 

Edited August 4, 2020 by money44

[CzechPunter]

Kontaveit doing her best to throw the second set away there unfortunately. Picking Sasnovich to beat Paolini tomorrow at 1.57 with Pinnacle, Paolini should've been eliminated in the previous round, saw the match and she wasn't able to serve well at all during the latter sets. Sasnovich has made it through hard quallies here and winning against Mertens is big.

[CzechPunter]

Oh, cheers Kontaveit ?.

[darko08]

Nice trick! 6 games in a row just after you said that ?

[darko08]

Krystina Pliskova to beat Sara Errani at 1.42 with 888

Errani has rarely been competitive in the WTA events she has played since her return so I expect Krystina to win this. The Czech player has played a lot of exhibition matches during these days and she has won in straight sets against a better player in her first round here. No exhibition matches played by Errani these days but luckily for her she faced a player who also came here without preparation.