kedbet Posted August 10, 2020 Author Share Posted August 10, 2020 (edited) #18 | 900.00€ (100%) @ 2.82 with bet365 | +1531.42€ 15:00 | Netuschil - Schonenberg | International Premier League | Netuschil @ 1.40 | 7-6, 7-6 23:50 | Brengle - Sabalenka | WTA Lexington | Sabalenka @ 1.22 | 1-6, 7-6, 2-6 10:00 | Gracheva - Martic | WTA Prague | Martic +1.5 Sets @ 1.12 | 6-7, 0-0 17:00 | Williams - Pera | WTA Lexington | Williams @ 1.18 | 4-6, 6-4, 6-1 20:00 | Bektas/Moore - Mattek-Sands/Stephens | WTA Lexington | Mattek-Sands/Stephens @ 1.25 | 1-6, 4-6 Picks: 10-8 (56%) Bankroll: 2431.43€ (+1431.43€) Edited August 12, 2020 by kedbet Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kedbet Posted August 11, 2020 Author Share Posted August 11, 2020 (edited) Thinking about a partial cash out right now. If I pull out 500€ I could still reach 2.1k with the remaining stake if this combo succeeds. This would finally be a new peak of my bankroll after three setbacks to my beginning balance of 1k in the past. On the other side I think I have a good chance of taking it all. Serena (her husband to be exact) built a new tennis court in her backyard during the lockdown so she has been training for quite a while and should be fired up. Pera is 2-10 vs top20 players (beat Wang and Konta) and shouldn't be able to threaten the fat lady. Doubles will be played not until tomorrow due to rain delays. I'm a firm believer in Bethanie Mattek-Sands who is one of the most skilled and most smart doubles players in women's tennis history and I think she can even raise the level of sloppy and not so smart Sloane Stephens. It will be the first match on WTA-level for Bektas/Moore and even though they played over 50 matches (36/19) as a team on ITF-level I can't see them having a word in this contest. However, I'm in a good position right now and can lean back, wait and see. If Serena is about to run into danger cashing out will be a real option. The same applies for tomorrows doubles match. Nevertheless I think we can do it without pulling the trigger ? Edited August 11, 2020 by kedbet Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kedbet Posted August 11, 2020 Author Share Posted August 11, 2020 Holy moly, that was one of the toughest matches ever to battle through. For me and for the fat lady ? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kedbet Posted August 12, 2020 Author Share Posted August 12, 2020 (edited) #19 | 931.00€ (38%) @ 1.67 with bet365 | -931.00€ 00:25 | Day - Chavatipon | Pro Tennis Series California | Day +1.5 Sets @ 1.14 | 6-3, 0-0 10:30 | Zakarlyuk - Poznikhirenko | Pro Tennis Series France | Zakarlyuk +1.5 Sets @ 1.20 | Cancelled 21:30 | Rogers - Fernandez | WTA Lexington | Fernandez +1.5 Sets @ 1.22 | 6-2, 7-5 Picks: 10-9 (53%) Bankroll: 1500.43€ (+500.43€) Edited August 14, 2020 by kedbet Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Torque Posted August 12, 2020 Share Posted August 12, 2020 On 8/11/2020 at 3:04 PM, kedbet said: If Serena is about to run into danger cashing out will be a real option. So you didn't cash out. That's surprising. She couldn't really have got herself into more trouble than a set down and 4-4 0-40. Still, nice result. kedbet 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kedbet Posted August 12, 2020 Author Share Posted August 12, 2020 (edited) 58 minutes ago, Torque said: So you didn't cash out. That's surprising. She couldn't really have got herself into more trouble than a set down and 4-4 0-40. Still, nice result. I had my finger on the button multiple times. Cashing out after she dropped the first set was no option for me, even though she looked horrible and was breathing heavily. It's Serena and I've seen her turn around matches likes this a dozen times before. After her pathethic performance in the opener she somewhat came alive in the second set being down 0-40 in her first service game. She started pushing herself for the first time all match long and won five points in a row. So once again no need to cash out. Throughout the second set the Kentucky sun was more and more hiding behind grey clouds what really helped her physically. We traded breaks and were on serve till the 9th game you mentioned above. At 4-4 (0-40) the cash out offer was literally a joke and I decided to took the gamble. She is called fat lady for a reason, because there's a proverb saying "it's not over until the fat lady sings". A Serena match is never over until the last ball is played. Her opponents frequently get scared stiff when they're on the brink of beating the legend. She turned it around by pure willpower and the mental edge over a browbeaten Pera. Needless to say that she would have lost this match against a lot of players. After this shaky performance everyone should refrain from backing her against Venus. Edited August 12, 2020 by kedbet Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Torque Posted August 12, 2020 Share Posted August 12, 2020 40 minutes ago, kedbet said: I had my finger on the button multiple times. Cashing out after she dropped the first set was no option for me, even though she looked horrible and was breathing heavily. It's Serena and I've seen her turn around matches likes this a dozen times before. After her pathethic performance in the opener she somewhat came alive in the second set being down 0-40 in her first service game. She started pushing herself for the first time all match long and won five points in a row. So once again no need to cash out. Throughout the second set the Kentucky sun was more and more hiding behind grey clouds what really helped her physically. We traded breaks and were on serve till the 9th game you mentioned above. At 4-4 (0-40) the cash out offer was literally a joke and I decided to took the gamble. She is called fat lady for a reason, because there's a proverb saying "it's not over until the fat lady sings". A Serena match is never over until the last ball is played. Her opponents frequently get scared stiff when they're on the brink of beating the legend. She turned it around by pure willpower and the mental edge over a browbeaten Pera. Needless to say that she would have lost this match against a lot of players. After this shaky performance everyone should refrain from backing her against Venus. I know all about Serena. I've been following tennis for a very long time. All I meant was that you were talking about cashing out if she got into trouble and then she got into trouble and you didn't. It worked out - great - but it won't always be that way. As I said I've followed tennis for a long time and I've seen it all. It's entirely up to you how you go about your business and I wish you all the best, but maybe it would help you in the long-term if you had a plan like the one you had before Serena's match about cashing out and stuck to it. kedbet 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kedbet Posted August 12, 2020 Author Share Posted August 12, 2020 4 minutes ago, Torque said: I know all about Serena. I've been following tennis for a very long time. All I meant was that you were talking about cashing out if she got into trouble and then she got into trouble and you didn't. It worked out - great - but it won't always be that way. As I said I've followed tennis for a long time and I've seen it all. It's entirely up to you how you go about your business and I wish you all the best, but maybe it would help you in the long-term if you had a plan like the one you had before Serena's match about cashing out and stuck to it. I stuck to my plan and I didn't tell this background story to teach you, there are some more people with maybe less knowledge reading this thread. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Torque Posted August 12, 2020 Share Posted August 12, 2020 (edited) 21 minutes ago, kedbet said: I stuck to my plan and I didn't tell this background story to teach you, there are some more people with maybe less knowledge reading this thread. Yes you did stick to your plan, in as much as your plan wasn't set in stone - you said you might cash out if she got into trouble, not that you definitely would. That's fine. Let's put it another way - having said that you might cash out what scenario would have actually seen you do it. It seems to me there was no scenario. If she got ahead early against Pera and was coasting towards and easy win then obviously you wouldn't have cashed out. In actuality, she did get into trouble - big trouble as far as the prices were concerned. When Pera held those three break points at the end of the second set Serena went out to about 4 to 1. As you mentioned you couldn't cash out at that point or earlier in the second set either, but you could have cashed out after she dropped the first set. I understand why you didn't - as you say Serena often comes back from behind - but in that case it's just like I said, you were never going to cash out. Again, that's completely your prerogative but hopefully you can understand that anyone reading this thread might be confused because it looks as though you were talking about possibly cashing out when you were never actually going to. I'll leave you to it now. I don't want to clog up your thread. Once again best of luck with this. Edited August 12, 2020 by Torque Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kedbet Posted August 12, 2020 Author Share Posted August 12, 2020 (edited) 45 minutes ago, Torque said: Again, that's completely your prerogative but hopefully you can understand that anyone reading this thread might be confused because it looks as though you were talking about possibly cashing out when you were never actually going to. I'll leave you to it now. I don't want to clog up your thread. Once again best of luck with this. I made completely clear why I did what I did in my detailed posting above. There are matches without a perfect moment for a potential cash out and this particular match had exactly none. There was no reason for 18 games and when there finally was some kind of reason at 4-4 (0-40) it was too late. Battling through this situation was the only option, because taking home less than 20% of my original stake was no option. So if anyone is confused just think about the risk/reward ratio at this stage of the match. Thanks for wishing me luck once again, even though it doesn't feel honest anymore ? And thanks everyone for almost 1000 views already, appreciate it ? Edited August 12, 2020 by kedbet Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Torque Posted August 12, 2020 Share Posted August 12, 2020 2 minutes ago, kedbet said: I made completely clear why I did what I did in my detailed posting above. There are matches without a perfect moment for a potential cash out and this particular match had exactly none. There was no reason for 18 games and when there finally was some kind of reason at 4-4 (0-40) it was too late. Battling through this situation was the only option, because taking home less than 20% of my original stake was no option. So if anyone is confused just take a second to think about the risk/reward ratio at this stage of the match. Thanks for wishing me luck once again mate, even though it doesn't feel honest anymore ? And thanks everyone for almost 1000 views already, appreciate it ? Everything I say is honest. You can be sure of that. I've been on here for a very long time and one thing I've never had levelled against me is a suggestion of dishonesty. I genuinely do wish you well. I can understand the idea that certain matches potentially don't offer a chance to cash out that you want to take. What I can't understand - and I'm sure I'm not alone in this if others are following this thread - is what would have had to have happened for you to cash out of Serena's match, or are you saying this match was never going to give you the chance to cash out, in which case why talk about cashing out as an option. Let's say the match hasn't happened yet and it's about to start. If cashing out is an option in your mind then it must be in your mind what would have to happen for you to consider cashing out. That was my original question. As I said before, if Serena cruises to victory then you don't cash out. As it turned out she struggled and you still didn't cash out. Somewhere in between those two scenarios must have been a place where you would have cashed out, otherwise cashing out was never going to be on your agenda. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kedbet Posted August 12, 2020 Author Share Posted August 12, 2020 3 minutes ago, Torque said: If cashing out is an option in your mind then it must be in your mind what would have to happen for you to consider cashing out. Medical reasons, being completely off like she was in her last two grand slam finals, showing no fighting spirit at all. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Torque Posted August 12, 2020 Share Posted August 12, 2020 Those are all good reasons to get out of a bet, and yet you said she looked horrible, was breathing heavily and was pathetic in the first set and you still didn't cash out. Then she goes 0-40 down at the start of the second before showing some fight so you let the bet run because she's turned matches around so many times in the past. Hopefully you can see how that looks a lot like you weren't going to cash out no matter what - which is entirely up to you of course. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kedbet Posted August 12, 2020 Author Share Posted August 12, 2020 4 minutes ago, Torque said: Hopefully you can see how that looks a lot like you weren't going to cash out no matter what - which is entirely up to you of course. Uhm no, I named three specific reasons above and none of them happened. Yep she looked some kind of rusty after 6 months without a match which is understandable. She timely showed that she is willing to fight and her physical situation improved drastically after the weather changed early in the second set. She had serve advantage and even going down a break she would have been within one game. That's not a situation to cash out Serena. At this point I really think I've drawn a solid picture of my way of thinking and acting, but let's just say it was up to me and I made the right call Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Torque Posted August 12, 2020 Share Posted August 12, 2020 Completely agree. It's entirely up to you which I've said from the start. However I think most people would say breathing difficulties count as a medical issue and would be a reason to get out of a bet, also looking horrible and being pathetic could probably be classified as being completely off. We'll have to agree to disagree but if this match was played five thousand times via Monte Carlo simulation I don't think you'd be cashing out once. You've got all bases covered in terms of Serena's performance - if she dominates the bet runs, if she doesn't and falls behind the bet still runs because she'll come back. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Torque Posted August 12, 2020 Share Posted August 12, 2020 From what you've said the only time to cash out Serena would have been when it was too late to cash out and you'd have been staring at a loss. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kedbet Posted August 12, 2020 Author Share Posted August 12, 2020 2 minutes ago, Torque said: From what you've said the only time to cash out Serena would have been when it was too late to cash out and you'd have been staring at a loss. Whatever, from now on I'll just shut up about my theoretical and unlikely thoughts beforehand and everything is fine ? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kedbet Posted August 13, 2020 Author Share Posted August 13, 2020 (edited) #20 | 500.00€ (33%) @ 1.76 with bet365 | +90.13€ 23:50 | Sherif - Day | Pro Tennis Series California | Day @ 1.10 | 1-6, 1-6 13:45 | Krejcikova/Siniakova - Kudermetova/Pavlyuchenkova | WTA Prague | Krejcikova/Siniakova +1.5 Sets @ 1.20 | 6-1, 0-0 21:30 | Jabeur - Gauff | WTA Lexington | Gauff +1.5 Sets @ 1.33 | Cashed out Picks: 11-9 (55%) Bankroll: 1590.56€ (+590.56€) Edited August 14, 2020 by kedbet Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Torque Posted August 13, 2020 Share Posted August 13, 2020 19 hours ago, kedbet said: Whatever, from now on I'll just shut up about my theoretical and unlikely thoughts beforehand and everything is fine ? Again that's up to you. There's no doubt you know your stuff and I've not questioned that, particularly about the lower levels of tennis which I have absolutely no knowledge of. When you were posting in the tennis thread I'm sure plenty benefited from that knowledge. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Torque Posted August 13, 2020 Share Posted August 13, 2020 And you were certainly right about leaving Serena alone against Venus. She played poorly again. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kedbet Posted August 14, 2020 Author Share Posted August 14, 2020 (edited) #21 | 500.00€ (50%) @ 2.09 with bet365 | -500.00€ 11:05 | Raducanu - Grey | UK Tennis Series | Raducanu @ 1.16 | 6-7, 6-2, 10-3 11:05 | Bogdan - Pliskova | WTA Prague | Pliskova +1.5 Sets @ 1.18 | Bogdan ret. 17:00 | Bellis - Teichmann | WTA Lexington | Bellis +1.5 Sets @ 1.22 | 2-6, 4-6 18:30 | Williams - Rogers | WTA Lexington | Williams @ 1.25 | 6-1, 4-6, 6-7 Picks: 11-10 (52%) Bankroll: 1090.56€ (+90.56€) Edited August 15, 2020 by kedbet Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kedbet Posted August 14, 2020 Author Share Posted August 14, 2020 (edited) Cashed out pick #20 with a small profit, not sure about Gauff anymore. Based on what I saw from Fernandez and Bellis lately I'm not sure about anything for the moment. Fernandez had a 5-2 lead in the second set yesterday and was in full control before losing 5 games in a row. Bellis was a different player compared to her second round match vs an in-form Pegula. These "flip a coin" performances cost me 1.4k and I can't afford to lose another 500€ although I still think that Gauff has the edge over Jabeur. There's another rain delay in Lexington anyway. Trying to rebuild some confidence before going big again. Edited August 14, 2020 by kedbet Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kedbet Posted August 14, 2020 Author Share Posted August 14, 2020 (edited) #22 | 90.00€ (8%) @ 1.57 with bet365 | +44.36€ Silva - Broady (6-2, 3-6, 1-0) | UK Tennis Series | 6-2, 3-6, 10-2 Actually bought this at 2-0 in the matchtiebreak. Picture was faster than the odds movement. Happens a lot at bet365. Picks: 12-10 (55%) Bankroll: 1134.92€ (+134.92€) Edited August 14, 2020 by kedbet Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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