The Corona Project

[kedbet]

Welcome folks!

I'll try a progressive staking strategy inspired by the Tiers et Tout roulette system of Thomas Garcia. As the french name already says he always placed 33% of his capital in the first try and in the event of loss the remaining 66% in the second try. The idea behind is a steadily progression of your bankroll as long as you don't lose twice in a row. I converted this model to sports betting by usually playing 25% of my capital in the first and 75% in the second try. If I lose 25% in my first try I only have to hit odds of 1.34 with the rest for a clean loss compensation. Everything above these odds will result in a progression. Due to the fact that I'm paying 5% taxes at bet365 here in Germany I changed my model to 20% in the first and 80% in the second try. On top of that I'm reserving the right to place 100% in the first try since I'm a pretty confident short-odds punter, especially in my main field of expertise. Needless to say that this is a challenging approach for punters with a high expertise and big balls, so better don't try this at home ? Good luck everyone following this project!

For the much better overview I'll edit my postings. Since I'm publishing my bet slips afterwards anyways this shouldn't be a big deal. Another thing I want to mention is that I'm occasionally playing live bets and even cashing out is a real option. So I'm sorry If you can't be on any bet, but this is not a paid service.

Picks: 0-0 (0%)
Bankroll: 1033.05€

Note: The 33.05€ are some kind of bonus money. For simplicity potential profit will be counted from a starter bankroll of 1k.

So far, let's make some money!

Edited August 6, 2020 by kedbet

[kedbet]

#1 | 233.00€ (22%) @ 4.25 with bet365 | -233.00€

10:00 | Alcaraz Garfia - Garcia-Lopez | Spanish Summer League | Alcaraz Garfia @ 1.53 | 6-1, 4-6, 6-3
10:30 | Arcangioli - Cavalle-Reimers | Pro Tennis Series France | Cavalle-Reimers +1.5 Sets @ 1.25 | 6-2, 6-4
11:30 | Martinez Portero - Alvarez Varona | Spanish Summer League | Martinez Portero @ 1.16 | 6-3, 3-6, 6-4
12:30 | Dougaz - Laurent | Pro Tennis Series France | Laurent +1.5 Sets @ 1.40 | 2-6, 0-0
14:00 | Karatsev - Redlicki | Pro Tennis Series Florida | Karatsev @ 1.20 | 2-6, 6-1, 10-4
16:30 | Broady - Pinnington Jones | UK Tennis Series | Broady @ 1.14 | 7-6, 6-3

Picks: 0-1 (0%)
Bankroll: 800.05€ (-233.00€)

Edited July 25, 2020 by kedbet

[kedbet]

#2 | 800.04€ (100%) @ 1.73 with bet365 | +517.37€

12:00 | Dougaz - Laurent (0-1 (0-0) | Pro Tennis Series France | Laurent @ 1.44 | 2-6, 6-3, 5-10
14:00 | Karatsev - Redlicki | Pro Tennis Series Florida | Karatsev @ 1.20 | 2-6, 6-1, 10-4

Picks: 1-1 (50%)
Bankroll: 1317.42€ (+317.42€)

Edited July 24, 2020 by kedbet

[Torque]

Good luck @kedbet Even at really short odds, you will need it 

[kedbet]

1 minute ago, Torque said:

Good luck @kedbet Even at really short odds, you will need it 

Thanks mate ?

[kedbet]

#3 | 263.00€ (20%) @ 1.97 with bet365 | -263.00€

16:00 | Popko - Gerasimov | Pro Tennis Series Florida | Gerasimov @ 1.44 | 7-5, 6-4
17:10 | Broady - Pinnington Jones | UK Tennis Series | Broady @ 1.14 | 7-6, 6-3
22:15 | Olmos - Morgina | Pro Tennis Series California | Olmos @ 1.20 | 6-1, 6-3

Picks: 1-2 (33%)
Bankroll: 1054.42€ (+54.42€)

Edited July 25, 2020 by kedbet

[kedbet]

#4 | 1054.00€ (100%) @ 1.51 with bet365 | +471.80€

17:39 | Clijsters/Peschke - Puig/Tomljanovic (2-0 (0-0)) | World Team Tennis | Clijsters/Peschke @ 1.14 | 5-2
18:05 | Broady - Pinnington Jones | UK Tennis Series | Broady @ 1.14 | 7-6, 6-3
22:15 | Olmos - Morgina | Pro Tennis Series California | Olmos @ 1.16 | 6-1, 6-3

Picks: 2-2 (50%)
Bankroll: 1526.22€ (+526.22€)

Edited July 24, 2020 by kedbet

[kedbet]

After recognizing Gerasimov is about to fail vs Popko I cashed out my 1054€ single bet on Olmos. Clijsters was playing doubles for the New York Empire and just broke the serve of the Las Vegas Rollers chicks, so there was no doubt that I will take the risk. I added Broady to the mix and lost 4 ticks on the Olmos odd which was @ 1.20 before. Sometimes betting is about making quick decisions in pressure moments and I think I've made a good one here ?

Edited July 24, 2020 by kedbet

[kedbet]

#5 | 305.00€ (20%) @ 2.09 with bet365 | +305.42€

01:40 | Arevalo/Pera - Mattek-Sands/Ram | World Team Tennis | Mattek-Sands/Ram @ 1.57 | 4-5
02:50 | Kubler - Bouzige | Pro Tennis Series Brisbane | Kubler 1st Service Game & Match @ 1.083 | To 30 & 6-3, 7-5
11:30 | Mihalikova - Schmiedlova | Piestany Ladies Open | Schmiedlova @ 1.10 | 0-6, 1-6
13:05 | Thole/Wickler - Pfretzschner/Van de Velde | Beachtour Dusseldorf | Thole/Wickler @ 1.12 | 21-18, 21-12

Picks: 3-2 (60%)
Bankroll: 1831.65€ (+831.65€)

Edited July 25, 2020 by kedbet

[kedbet]

#6 | 366.00€ (20%) @ 1.96 with bet365 | -366.00€

14:20 | Canter - Cox (2-1 (0-0)) | UK Tennis Series | Cox @ 1.53 | 6-3, 6-4
15:20 | Karlovskiy - Gerasimov | Pro Tennis Series Florida | Gerasimov @ 1.28 | 0-6, 3-6

Picks: 3-3 (50%)
Bankroll: 1465.65€ (+465.65€)

Edited July 25, 2020 by kedbet

[kedbet]

#7 | 1465.64€ (100%) @ 1.41 with bet365 | +503.56€

15:50 | Bencic - Teichmann (2-1 (0-0)) | Securitas Pro Cup | Bencic @ 1.10 | 4-1, 4-1
16:00 | Karlovskiy - Gerasimov | Pro Tennis Series Florida | Gerasimov @ 1.28 | 0-6, 3-6

Picks: 4-3 (57%)
Bankroll: 1969.21€ (+969.21€)

Edited July 25, 2020 by kedbet

[kedbet]

#8 | 393.00€ (20%) @ 1.41 with bet365 | -393.00€

18:35 | Black - Nefedova (6-4, 0-1 (0-15)) | Pro Tennis Series Florida | Nefedova 2nd Set @ 1.50 | 6-4, 6-4
20:45 | Bobrov - Gomez | Pro Tennis Series California | Bobrov +1.5 Sets @ 1.20 | 7-6, 0-0

Picks: 4-4 (50%)
Bankroll: 1576.21€ (+576.21€)

Edited July 25, 2020 by kedbet

[kedbet]

I'm on vacation for a while, will continue in august 

[kedbet]

#9 | 160.00€ (10%) @ 1.74 with bet365 | +102.89€

00:45 | 9z - River Plate | Aorus League | 9z @ 1.10 | 16-9, 14-16, 16-11
10:30 | Arcangioli - Monnet | Pro Tennis Series France | Monnet +1.5 Sets @ 1.16 | 6-1, 1-6, 0-0
13:00 | Laurent - Paz | Pro Tennis Series France | Laurent @ 1.062 | 7-6, 6-3
18:00 | Martin - Cash | UK Tennis Series | Cash @ 1.16 | 3-6, 6-7
19:00 | Ferro - Errani | WTA Palermo | Ferro +1.5 Sets @ 1.11 | 6-4, 0-0

Small stake, warmup ?

Picks: 5-4 (56%)
Bankroll: 1679.10€ (+679.10€)

Edited August 7, 2020 by kedbet

[kedbet]

#10 | 230.00€ (16%) @ 1.60 with bet365 | +121.17€

15:15 | Rosenkranz - Strombachs | International Premier League | Rosenkranz +1.5 Sets @ 1.28 | 6-1, 0-0
16:00 | Martic - Sasnovich | WTA Palermo | Martic +1.5 Sets @ 1.25 | 7-6, 0-0

Picks: 6-4 (60%)
Bankroll: 1800.27€ (+800.27€)

Edited August 7, 2020 by kedbet

[kedbet]

I decided to give some hints between my picks, maybe this is useful for some of you. In my estimation Petra Martic is one of the most stable players mentally in women's tennis. She deserves a lot more credit than she gets from the public and especially from the bookies. For me a clean top10 player, even though she hasn't been there yet. My valuation is heavily based on mental strength and overall game intelligence and Martic is a very smart cookie.

Edited August 7, 2020 by kedbet

[kedbet]

#11 | 800.00€ (44%) @ 1.78 with bet365 | -800.00€

11:00 | Rosca - Vanlangendonck | International Premier League | Rosca @ 1.20 | 6-3, 6-1
15:00 | Sugnaux - Dascalu | Pro Tennis Series France | Dascalu +1.5 Sets @ 1.16 | 3-6, 0-0
17:00 | Martic - Kontaveit | WTA Palermo | Martic +1.5 Sets @ 1.28 | 2-6, 4-6

Picks: 6-5 (55%)
Bankroll: 1000.27€ (+0.27€)

Edited August 8, 2020 by kedbet

[kedbet]

#12 | 610.00€ (61%) @ 1.90 with bet365 | +500.72€

18:45 | Ferro - Giorgi | WTA Palermo | Giorgi +1.5 Sets @ 1.53 | 2-6, 0-0
21:45 | Zacarias - Sherif | Pro Tennis Series California | Zacarias @ 1.071 | 6-2, 6-3
12:15 | Tsurenko - Palicova | WTA Prague | Tsurenko @ 1.16 | 2-6, 6-4, 6-1

Picks: 7-5 (58%)
Bankroll: 1500.99€ (+500.99€)

Edited August 9, 2020 by kedbet

[kedbet]

As you may have noticed I left the 20/80 staking for the moment. Currently I'm going with what feels right regarding my picks. The big stake in pick #11 felt completely right because my opinion on Martic is unchanged and Kontaveit had a letdown in any match she played. Unfortunately Martic started the match with a big strap on her right thigh and never looked as she felt comfortable on court. The "injured out of nowhere problem" is still happening quite often to me and is maybe my biggest trap at this stage. The only way to avoid dangers like this is live betting only. Anyways we're about to get 500€ back when Tsurenko gets the job done. Palicova is a 16yo local chick with a career-high junior ranking of #52. That's not that bad, but far from giving me creeps.

Edited August 9, 2020 by kedbet

[kedbet]

#13 | 390.26€ (100%) @ 1.26 with bet365 | +79.21€

04:33 | Vukic - Reid (0-1 (0-0)) | Pro Tennis Series Sydney | Vukic @ 1.18 | 6-2, 6-4
12:15 | Tsurenko - Palicova | WTA Prague | Tsurenko +1.5 Sets @ 1.071 | 2-6, 6-4, 0-0

Picks: 8-5 (62%)
Bankroll: 1580.20€ (+580.20€)

Edited August 9, 2020 by kedbet

[kedbet]

No idea what Tsurenko did in the opener. 27% on serve in the first set and barely winning a point vs a lowlevel player like Palicova is technically nearly impossible. The course of matches like this always makes me wonder if some players just wanna earn some extra money by throwing on purpose. I've seen way to much over the years to buy into the "slow start" argument anymore. Let's see what happens in the decider and if she gets her shit together.

Edited August 9, 2020 by kedbet

[kedbet]

#14 | 580.00€ (37%) @ 1.90 with bet365 | -580.00€

14:33 | Cox - Patten (1-3 (0-0)) | UK Tennis Series | Patten @ 1.44 | 7-6, 6-3
15:15 | Sysoeva - Elie | Pro Tennis Series Florida | Elie @ 1.16 | 6-4, 3-6, 11-9
18:30 | Kalinskaya - Gleason | WTA Lexington | Kalinskaya @ 1.14 | 6-1, 6-0

Picks: 8-6 (57%)
Bankroll: 1000.20€ (+0.20€)

Edited August 9, 2020 by kedbet

[Torque]

2 hours ago, kedbet said:

No idea what Tsurenko did in the opener. 27% on serve in the first set and barely winning a point vs a lowlevel player like Palicova is technically nearly impossible. The course of matches like this always makes me wonder if some players just wanna earn some extra money by throwing on purpose. I've seen way to much over the years to buy into the "slow start" argument anymore. Let's see what happens in the decider and if she gets her shit together.

I sometimes think maybe it's not as sinister as fixing, but that sometimes the far superior player wants more of a work-out than a straight sets win, or wants to go a set behind to set themselves the challenge of winning from behind.

[kedbet]

#15 | 500.00€ (50%) @ 2.38 with bet365 | +637.42€

17:10 | Cocciaretto/Trevisan - Rus/Zidansek | WTA Palermo | Rus/Zidansek +1.5 Sets @ 1.33 | 5-7, 0-0
19:30 | Kontaveit - Ferro | WTA Palermo | Ferro +1.5 Sets @ 1.57 | 2-6, 0-0
21:00 | Kalinskaya - Gleason | WTA Lexington | Kalinskaya @ 1.14 | 6-1, 6-0

Picks: 9-6 (60%)
Bankroll: 1637.62€ (+637.62€)

I don't buy into the hype about these two italian chicks. There's a lot more experience and class on the other side of the net. Kalinskaya can only beat herself in this qualification match. And I still don't trust in Kontaveit. She beat an injured Martic and had a medical timeout herself yesterday where she got strapped on her thigh. Ferro looks very strong right now, extremely focused an has a great coach (Emmanuel Planque, former coach of Lucas Pouille) with her. So I'm laying straight sets victories in Palermo and take Kalinskaya as a banker.

Edited August 9, 2020 by kedbet

[kedbet]

1 hour ago, Torque said:

I sometimes think maybe it's not as sinister as fixing, but that sometimes the far superior player wants more of a work-out than a straight sets win, or wants to go a set behind to set themselves the challenge of winning from behind.

I could understand such a move in a random exhibition match, but not when the main draw of a big tournament is on the line.

[Torque]

3 minutes ago, kedbet said:

I could understand such a move in a random exhibition match, but not when the main draw of a big tournament is on the line.

Logically of course you're absolutely right. But I've seen it happen so many times I'm not so sure anymore. You'll often hear after a top player has come through a tighter than expected match that it might be more helpful to their chances of doing well in a tournament than a blowout win would have done.

[kedbet]

#16 | 637.00€ (39%) @ 1.74 with bet365 | -637.00€

11:35 | Arcangioli - Mikulskyte | Pro Tennis Series France | Mikulskyte +1.5 Sets @ 1.20 | 6-2, 6-4
13:45 | Krejcikova/Siniakova - Friedsam/Paar | WTA Prague | Krejcikova/Siniakova @ 1.16 | 6-4, 3-6, 10-4
20:00 | Bektas/Moore - Mattek-Sands/Stephens | WTA Lexington | Mattek-Sands/Stephens @ 1.25 | 1-6, 4-6

Picks: 9-7 (56%)
Bankroll: 1000.62€ (+0.62€)

Edited August 13, 2020 by kedbet

[kedbet]

18 hours ago, Torque said:

Logically of course you're absolutely right. But I've seen it happen so many times I'm not so sure anymore. You'll often hear after a top player has come through a tighter than expected match that it might be more helpful to their chances of doing well in a tournament than a blowout win would have done.

Maybe you're right, but you gotta keep in mind that there is a wide field of options for good players to fix a match by doing it unapparently. A player who is way above his opponent skillwise can easily beat him anytime by just playing his a-game. That's the beauty of this sport and the main reason why it is so profitable to bet on tennis. That said a 1.15 favorite can easily bring the odds to even by losing the opening set and dropping serve twice like Tsurenko did yesterday. So if this player finds himself down a set there is only one risk: Not finding the switch. If he does he will win the match and has done a great job for whoever wants to make good money.

[Torque]

I've seen plenty of strange matches and results over the years so I'm sure there's something in what you say. Either way, whether it's a player that isn't motivated to win as quickly as possible or a player that isn't motivated to win for whatever reason, betting on tennis can be a very tricky proposition - unless you can know for certain what's in the mind of a player before they play which is pretty much impossible.

[kedbet]

#17 | 100.61€ (10%) @ 2.02 with bet365 | -100.61€

11:35 | Arcangioli - Mikulskyte | Pro Tennis Series France | Mikulskyte 2nd set @ 1.80 | 6-2, 6-4
13:45 | Krejcikova/Siniakova - Friedsam/Paar | WTA Prague | Krejcikova/Siniakova @ 1.12 | 6-4, 3-6, 10-4

Picks: 9-8 (53%)
Bankroll: 900.01€ (-99.99€)

Edited August 12, 2020 by kedbet