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Are all multiple bets a mugs game?

Recently, @Trotter said that he would put up some Yankee bets with horses at short prices so as to prove that these are a waste of money.  He added that one needs at least three winners to  make a profit indicating that all punters are up against the odds of winning.

@MCLARKE says that backing odds on favourites are a good source for making profits as long as one is very selective. He also says that because one has to place a multiple bet with the same bookmaker then one is at a disadvantage because one can't always get the best odds available. I also believe that he does not see the point of multiple bets because one doesn't truly gain anything in real terms.  For example if one can back two true 50% chances, then one may as well back them individually since one doesn't gain anything by combining them in a double. Indeed, we have to wait for one success in four attempts to achieve the same profit (or just break even if one can only obtain even money about each horse).

Perhaps I should also mention that PL Accumulator which I believe is really a "treble" bet shows a profit of around £4k over about a three year period for £20 stakes.  These quite often have selections that are odds on.

A Yankee consists of 11 bets, 6 doubles, 4 trebles and one accumulator.  As some PL members may know I very often place Trixie bets with three selections.  However, sometimes when I'm looking for my three selections I find that I may find it difficult to split my selections and will possibly have four selections.  In this case, instead of following the bookies "yankee" choice of backing all the selections for the same stake money for each bet I choose to alter the stakes with regard to doubles, trebles and the accumulator. Hence, if I were to have four selections then I would place bets as 6 x 50p win doubles, 4 trebles at 25p and one fourfold at 15p = a total of £4.15 instead of 11 bets at 50p = £5.50.  If you fancy more than 4, say 5 then you get into the realms of a Super Yankee which is 26 bets.  The problem here is that your 50p standard bets would then cost you £13.00.  The other problem is that when just one selection fails you lose out on so many bets.  I couldn't recommend anyone placing this type of bet.  Far better to eliminate one of your selections and place a bet on what you consider to be the best of the four.

As anyone who has seen my bets in the past will know I very much favour a Trixie bet.  Last year and before "lockdown" I used to purposely select horses at between a minimum of 3/1 and ideally 7/2 plus for my three selections.  The problem here was that getting all three selections to win in a row was very few and far between.  This proved to be disheartening though not impossible to achieve profits but the wait and carrying forward a deficit until all three bets clicked at good odds put me off.  Since that time I decided to check for good quality races and find horses at shorter odds for my bets.  Whilst, I still haven't managed to clear my deficit balance I have had much more success with this approach.  I reckon that there have been at least four occasions when I have achieved a double and just missed out on the Trixie.

What all this means to me is that if one likes to have a bet on the multiples is that one stands a better chance of winning by selecting shorter priced market leaders in the betting and also being in control of how bets are placed with the bookies.  I don't like backing odds on favourites myself but would rather choose races where the market leader who is supposed to have a good chance of winning is within the price range of between 1/1 and up to 3/1

Just my thoughts on this topic

 

 

 

     

 

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I dont find much value in graded and group class races ....sometimes you can but bookies are very very good at pricing them up and the odds are stacked in their favour .... I tend to find a lot o

Thanks mate, appreciated, thought i'd blew it with a week to go. Lucky i made De Bruyne captain on the last day, i knew he needed 1 assist to equal the record so was bound to play. Gary was run

I think C/D winners are useful at quirky tracks Chester Goodwood Brighton Catterick Cartmel Ripon Fakenham possibly Musselburgh Not sure how much they are worth elsewhere, hand

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My biggest ever win was on a Yankee or L15 ..... can't remember now as it was nearly 30 years ago. 

I had 3 winners up but one of them was 12/1 and one was 6/1,.......... can't remember the other

I think it's going to be impossible to make profit regularly by doing yankees or L15s on short priced horses whereby you're going to need 3 winners to get your stake back and all 4 to win to make anything ...... that's just not realistic on a regular basis.

There has to be a reason why Bookies promote L15s and Yankees ........ in the olden days they used to have pre-printed slips for multiple bets in the shops and give bonuses like double odds on one winner. L15s, Heinz, Union Jacks etc ....... brightly coloured betting slips to catch the eye!

But for most people betting isn't about making money ..... it's about adding some value to your afternoon sat in front of the telly watching the racing. And if you accept that you're probably going to lose but want to cover a lot of races then a couple of multiples for small stakes keeps an interest through the card

That's the way I'd look at it

I'm not a big gambler on the horses but I think I've only done Win or occasionally EW singles since I started betting again after a long break and that was in 2008 ........... I haven't done a multiple since

 

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Free Timeform Ratings 

Ok think ive sussed this now.

Its a time limited extension for Chrome (or Edge) that you can download
When you open a race on the exchanges the button appears and the Timeform ratings are on the card

You can choose settings on the Timeform Pro button.
I got it to work on Edge not sure if will work on Firefox etc....

 

I have done a screenshot for the big handicap at Fontwell tomorrow to demonstrate

Screen Shot 2020-08-17 at 21.44.17.png

You can get the extension by downloading this link

 

https://chrome.google.com/webstore/detail/betfair-plugin/jooiphaopcinjoledmchmemihmdcdfio?hl=en-GB

I'll copy this into the General Chat thread too for other users.

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18 hours ago, BillyHills said:

Free Timeform Ratings 

Ok think ive sussed this now.

Its a time limited extension for Chrome (or Edge) that you can download
When you open a race on the exchanges the button appears and the Timeform ratings are on the card

You can choose settings on the Timeform Pro button.
I got it to work on Edge not sure if will work on Firefox etc....

 

I have done a screenshot for the big handicap at Fontwell tomorrow to demonstrate

Screen Shot 2020-08-17 at 21.44.17.png

You can get the extension by downloading this link

 

https://chrome.google.com/webstore/detail/betfair-plugin/jooiphaopcinjoledmchmemihmdcdfio?hl=en-GB

I'll copy this into the General Chat thread too for other users.

Many thanks Graham, it is lovely to have access toTimeform ratings for as long as it lasts.  As you say one has to download Chrome or Edge then find the plugin from the browser, add it in and then login to Betfair to gain access.  I will be cross references with the ATR site between the star ratings under the racecard Tab and the Timeform selections to try and see how the actual ratings compare.  

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1 hour ago, The Equaliser said:

Many thanks Graham, it is lovely to have access toTimeform ratings for as long as it lasts.  As you say one has to download Chrome or Edge then find the plugin from the browser, add it in and then login to Betfair to gain access.  I will be cross references with the ATR site between the star ratings under the racecard Tab and the Timeform selections to try and see how the actual ratings compare.  

Glad you got it sorted mate,

Went on it today and it appeared without even logging in, a real freebie;)

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4 hours ago, BillyHills said:

Glad you got it sorted mate,

Went on it today and it appeared without even logging in, a real freebie;)

What I also think is great is the highlighted jockey bookings + Trainers in good form.  Let's hope that they don't pull it too soon 😀

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21 hours ago, Villa Chris said:

Can anyone explain to me how horse racing software works. I’ve got a couple of broken laptops, which I may get repaired or just buy a new one who knows. How’s this software work and what’s the craic with it.

What software would that be ?
Any in particular ?
Most are just databases with a few bells and whistles added so they can charge an arm and a leg.

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4 hours ago, Valiant Thor said:

What software would that be ?
Any in particular ?
Most are just databases with a few bells and whistles added so they can charge an arm and a leg.

Maybe I’m getting confused but don’t some on here use a software to come up with their own ratings ? That’s what I’m getting at really, I’d like to do my own ratings. I know the databases you are on about and it doesn’t really interest me. As you say it’s not much value for what it is. 

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1 minute ago, Villa Chris said:

Maybe I’m getting confused but don’t some on here use a software to come up with their own ratings ? That’s what I’m getting at really, I’d like to do my own ratings. I know the databases you are on about and it doesn’t really interest me. As you say it’s not much value for what it is. 

I think @BillyHills uses horseracebase to come up with his ratings.
You used to be able to do your own ratings on Racing Post I think dont know if you still can.
Most who do there own use Access/Excel to create them

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5 minutes ago, Valiant Thor said:

I think @BillyHills uses horseracebase to come up with his ratings.
You used to be able to do your own ratings on Racing Post I think dont know if you still can.
Most who do there own use Access/Excel to create them

You can store your ratings on the RP but you have be a subscribed member

Basically you input the rating for the winner and the site works out the ratings for the beaten horses then stores every rating on the horse's form page

When I used to do my own speed ratings I did them manually then entered them on the RP site for storage and future reference

 

 

 

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I’m experimenting with prize money won at the minute. Obviously I take into account if a horse has run a lot in Ireland as the prize money is much better over there. But for races run in Britain where a race is run with mostly horses that have only raced over here, then that could indicate a class factor for a horse. Add to that if the horse runs well on the ground, and maybe taking distance into account. I’ll look for picks where one or two horses in a race have clearly won more prize money and divide it by their races run. Mainly concentrating on listed-class 3. 

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1 hour ago, Villa Chris said:

I see the Aussies are annoyed that Frankel won the virtual Cox Plate. @Darran you seem to know a bit about racing down under. How do you think Winx would have faired against Frankel and why didn’t they bring the horse over to Europe or even take Frankel down under. 

It was an interesting angle sticking Frankel, Secretariat and Deep Impact in the race, but given the first two named finished first and second it has back fired a little. It would be a bit like sticking Denman in a virtual Grand National. I was surprised Winx was favourite over Frankel, but in my adult lifetime I believe they are the best two horses I have seen on the flat especially over 1m/1m2f. I think if they had been around at the same time as each other you would have seen the two of them race. I think Winx might have beaten him in a Cox Plate, but Frankel would have had the edge over here. It would have been a hell of a race though.

As for why they never actually sent her over here I think it was a few things. No horse has won 4 Cox Plates and I think the chance to create history in Australia's biggest WFA race was a very big factor. The year they were thinking about sending her over the Queen Anne was won by Accidental Agent which tells you all you need to now about how poor the race was. She would have wiped the for with him and to travel half way around the world to beat some poor horses for less prize money wasn't really worth it. As I mention above if it had been Frankel I think they would have sent her. The other thing which I think would have been in the back of their minds was what happened to Black Caviar. She didn't have a great trip and got injured before she ran which is why she only just won. It took her a while to get over that and with such a precious horse they just didn't want to risk it. As her trainer Chris Waller always said they could have sent any horse to face her in Australia. She was a truly special horse though to win G1's over 7f up to 1m2f as well as the unbeaten record and the fact she raced for so long at the top level. She could do freakish things and there was occasions where she ought to have been beaten, but every time she found a way to win. Watch this race she wins at Flemington and you will see what I mean. 

 

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13 minutes ago, Villa Chris said:

I’ve seen a few clips of winx and the one above and must say I was very impressed. As good a flat horse I’ve seen on the eye. Unbelievable machine. 

It was a shocking ride by Hugh as he admitted after the race. She certainly got him out of trouble.

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Went into my local Betfred on Sunday and made the following observation......Subjectavist won the big race in France.....i noticed it was between 8 and 9 to 1 on the French tote....only 9/2 was offerred in the shop......it won and was returned 9/2 . On getting the Racing Post next day the winning price was given at 6-1 . What is going on here , are we being ripped off .?==

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5 hours ago, ivans82 said:

Went into my local Betfred on Sunday and made the following observation......Subjectavist won the big race in France.....i noticed it was between 8 and 9 to 1 on the French tote....only 9/2 was offerred in the shop......it won and was returned 9/2 . On getting the Racing Post next day the winning price was given at 6-1 . What is going on here , are we being ripped off .?==

It's up to the bookmaker to offer the odds that they want. It's then up to us, the punters, to shop around and find the best price.

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Earlier in the year when there was no UK racing and we were posting selections in Hong Kong and the USA it was noted on the forum how winning odds were different in the Racing Post, the Life, etc ...... and bore little relation to any 'official' returned Tote style odds in the racing country itself

If you look at the results for Longchamp on Sunday just gone ........ look at the 12.25 race won by Be Great

The 'Life' gives his price as 22/1
The Post has 30/1
Wm Hill has 20/1

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BASING ONE'S BETS ON HORSE RATINGS

Oddly enough I have up to now resisted using ratings as a basis for my horse racing selections in the past as they seem to either conflict with one and another or just didn't seem to make sense.

However, with my £400 singles betting bank dwindling down to around £140 I thought that I needed to change the basis of my selections.  In truth I have probably squandered most of the money on outsiders that failed to win.

Anyway, I have decide to have a go using ratings as a basis of my selections as opposed to sifting through expert selections alongside market preferences.

This seemed to work out OK yesterday and today seems Ok too with Dell' Arca winning for me at 8/1 today top rated with Timeform and RPR

It seems to me that most contributors on this site who make money use ratings apart from others who spend ages watching previously run races so as to get an idea about which horse will win a race.

I am not about to get into the realms of studying and producing my own ratings but instead will use what is readily available to me.

I am using Racing Post Ratings (RPR) and Timeform ratings.  I do not suscribe to the Racing Post nor Timeform and only use what is there for us all to see.  With TImeform ratings I use a plugin on Google chrome to get the Timeform ratings (Graham, kindly found this for me)

My two twists on using both these ratings is that I am favouring those which highlight well fancied runners, preferably favourites at odds of 2/1 plus and also take account of in form/popular jockeys who are riding them.

I don't know if anyone knows about the idiosynchrasy's of either the RPR or TImeform or whether there is any guide as to how these are calculated as this may be useful to me?  Yesterday, it occurred to me that the RPR may be overly influenced by a most recent poor performance as Laurentia won the 4.00 at Lingfield with -8 on RPR ratings when Timeform had the horse close to the top seemingly ignoring the horse's most recent poor run.

Also, what I find confusing is the ranking of horses and the numerical difference in the top rated horse and those beneath.  For example I found a race yesterday where RPR had the same figure for three top rated and then the next two horses had the next lowest figure.  Hence, I had five horses within the top two rated figures.  Although I can determine which horse is the RPR selection as I use Napchecker which indicates this I decided that I would have to look at the top three and disregard the the next two which were second rated.  I am not sure how many I should be looking at to be worthy of consideration with regard to ratings.  Should it be just the top one or two or three or four, I don't know?

I realise that I could just go with either the top RPR or Timeform rating along with the shortest market position plus a very good jockey booking but I thought it may add grist to the mill to include or exclude ratings below two, three or four lower from the alternative ratings selection. Any thoughts?

I know that @richard-westwoodalso uses a class rating so maybe I could build that in by ensuring that a horse has won in the same or a higher class.

Fascinating stuff

Any ideas are most welcome

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

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48 minutes ago, The Equaliser said:

BASING ONE'S BETS ON HORSE RATINGS

Oddly enough I have up to now resisted using ratings as a basis for my horse racing selections in the past as they seem to either conflict with one and another or just didn't seem to make sense.

However, with my £400 singles betting bank dwindling down to around £140 I thought that I needed to change the basis of my selections.  In truth I have probably squandered most of the money on outsiders that failed to win.

Anyway, I have decide to have a go using ratings as a basis of my selections as opposed to sifting through expert selections alongside market preferences.

This seemed to work out OK yesterday and today seems Ok too with Dell' Arca winning for me at 8/1 today top rated with Timeform and RPR

It seems to me that most contributors on this site who make money use ratings apart from others who spend ages watching previously run races so as to get an idea about which horse will win a race.

I am not about to get into the realms of studying and producing my own ratings but instead will use what is readily available to me.

I am using Racing Post Ratings (RPR) and Timeform ratings.  I do not suscribe to the Racing Post nor Timeform and only use what is there for us all to see.  With TImeform ratings I use a plugin on Google chrome to get the Timeform ratings (Graham, kindly found this for me)

My two twists on using both these ratings is that I am favouring those which highlight well fancied runners, preferably favourites at odds of 2/1 plus and also take account of in form/popular jockeys who are riding them.

I don't know if anyone knows about the idiosynchrasy's of either the RPR or TImeform or whether there is any guide as to how these are calculated as this may be useful to me?  Yesterday, it occurred to me that the RPR may be overly influenced by a most recent poor performance as Laurentia won the 4.00 at Lingfield with -8 on RPR ratings when Timeform had the horse close to the top seemingly ignoring the horse's most recent poor run.

Also, what I find confusing is the ranking of horses and the numerical difference in the top rated horse and those beneath.  For example I found a race yesterday where RPR had the same figure for three top rated and then the next two horses had the next lowest figure.  Hence, I had five horses within the top two rated figures.  Although I can determine which horse is the RPR selection as I use Napchecker which indicates this I decided that I would have to look at the top three and disregard the the next two which were second rated.  I am not sure how many I should be looking at to be worthy of consideration with regard to ratings.  Should it be just the top one or two or three or four, I don't know?

I realise that I could just go with either the top RPR or Timeform rating along with the shortest market position plus a very good jockey booking but I thought it may add grist to the mill to include or exclude ratings below two, three or four lower from the alternative ratings selection. Any thoughts?

I know that @richard-westwoodalso uses a class rating so maybe I could build that in by ensuring that a horse has won in the same or a higher class.

Fascinating stuff

Any ideas are most welcome

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Always a fascinating subject and open to so much interpretation ......I think definately you need a performance and speed base  ..   rpr and timeform are perfectly ok ....as your results show....you could just use that and youd get a few winners I'm sure but think about it logically .....is that everything ???......you want a horse that has form over today's distance .....if all a horses form is over 7f and today's is 8f then the rating needs to reflect that .....class as you mentioned is a big factor .....I find that if the race is close near the end I.e 3 horses level in last furlong ...the classier horses just "find more " ... when push comes to shove ....( class ) ......

Even further and probably the biggest factor is weight diff has an effect on all factors ....performance...speed and class ....if you add weight your ratings are going to change from last time and that's the difficult bit that normally requires computer power ......overall you want to make the most realistic guess of what the horse can do ...."today"  ...under today's conditions but you've got a good start and it will only help your betting for sure ....and tbh I find it fun crunching numbers and rating races ....it relaxes me in a strange way lol 

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12 minutes ago, richard-westwood said:

Always a fascinating subject and open to so much interpretation ......I think definately you need a performance and speed base  ..   rpr and timeform are perfectly ok ....as your results show....you could just use that and youd get a few winners I'm sure but think about it logically .....is that everything ???......you want a horse that has form over today's distance .....if all a horses form is over 7f and today's is 8f then the rating needs to reflect that .....class as you mentioned is a big factor .....I find that if the race is close near the end I.e 3 horses level in last furlong ...the classier horses just "find more " ... when push comes to shove ....( class ) ......

Even further and probably the biggest factor is weight diff has an effect on all factors ....performance...speed and class ....if you add weight your ratings are going to change from last time and that's the difficult bit that normally requires computer power ......overall you want to make the most realistic guess of what the horse can do ...."today"  ...under today's conditions but you've got a good start and it will only help your betting for sure ....and tbh I find it fun crunching numbers and rating races ....it relaxes me in a strange way lol 

Very many thanks for your input.  I will bear the factors you mention in mind over the coming weeks

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I

7 hours ago, The Equaliser said:

I am not about to get into the realms of studying and producing my own ratings but instead will use what is readily available to me.

Therein may be the problem, if the ratings are readily available to you then they are also readily available to everybody. Therefore plenty of people will be using them as part of their selection process and this will bring down the odds of the selections. It will therefore be very difficult to make a profit by using these ratings.

I seem to remember from when I used to read the racing post that the RPR top rated produced a loss at SP of about 8% which was roughly the same as for favourites which would indicate that that the market takes account of these ratings.

I think the only way to be successful is to find influencing factors that the market does not take account of. This may well require calculating your own ratings or using ratings that are not so readily available. Then it is vital that you search out the best odds available.

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Yes I agree with mcclarke above .....I rate on average 3 to 4 races a day when I have time but sometimes I have no bets purely because the value isnt there .....if the race looks messy or is too wide open and the horses are all bunched around 3/1 to 6/1 ...then it's better to pass .....a lot of the horses I back are twice the price they should be so if you keep backing horses like that your always gonna come out on top in the long run I.e ...you can have 8 straight losers at 10pts ...-80 ....but if your next horse wins at 12/1 your in happy town .......value is a big factor whatever system you use but making your own ratings just makes value bets that bit easier to find......and the more ....technical your rating the less likely anyone else will know what your seeing .....sometimes I plug numbers into the computer and think what the hell have you picked that for ??....its only when I dig a bit deeper that I realise theres some sort of hidden angle  ...big weight drop ....good performance finishing 7th etc ....behind it .....ratings can show that whereas it might be missed by just browsing the form as most people do .....its an "angle" 

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17 hours ago, MCLARKE said:

I

Therein may be the problem, if the ratings are readily available to you then they are also readily available to everybody. Therefore plenty of people will be using them as part of their selection process and this will bring down the odds of the selections. It will therefore be very difficult to make a profit by using these ratings.

I seem to remember from when I used to read the racing post that the RPR top rated produced a loss at SP of about 8% which was roughly the same as for favourites which would indicate that that the market takes account of these ratings.

I think the only way to be successful is to find influencing factors that the market does not take account of. This may well require calculating your own ratings or using ratings that are not so readily available. Then it is vital that you search out the best odds available.

Hi M, thanks for your input.  I am not so sure that the Racing Post's RPR or Timeform's ratings necessarily influence the shortening of prices.  I have seen in the past that horses with big reputations and those coming from top yards and also of course horses with top jockey bookings have their prices slashed, especially where a jockey has a couple of wins on the day.  The above ratings include plenty of outsiders from both camps so any one looking at them on any day's racing will be just as confused as I have been in the past as to whether they represent a pot of gold.  As explained previously I am using these ratings alongside prominent market positions for my selections.  I am also taking into account in form top jockey and apprentice bookings.  I will just have to see how it goes.  I couldn't find many today with my favoured jockey's aboard so I left it.

Also, I think it seems a bit unfair to conclude that RPR's showed a loss when top selections were compared with SP.  No wise punter ever accepts SP for their bets so I feel that your results should have been calculated at BOG or the very least Betfair SP.  Recently, @Valiant Thor did some calculations on the top RPR's and he concluded that there was some scope to make money by using them.

Just some thoughts on your comments; I hope that you are keeping well

 

 

 

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14 hours ago, richard-westwood said:

Yes I agree with mcclarke above .....I rate on average 3 to 4 races a day when I have time but sometimes I have no bets purely because the value isnt there .....if the race looks messy or is too wide open and the horses are all bunched around 3/1 to 6/1 ...then it's better to pass .....a lot of the horses I back are twice the price they should be so if you keep backing horses like that your always gonna come out on top in the long run I.e ...you can have 8 straight losers at 10pts ...-80 ....but if your next horse wins at 12/1 your in happy town .......value is a big factor whatever system you use but making your own ratings just makes value bets that bit easier to find......and the more ....technical your rating the less likely anyone else will know what your seeing .....sometimes I plug numbers into the computer and think what the hell have you picked that for ??....its only when I dig a bit deeper that I realise theres some sort of hidden angle  ...big weight drop ....good performance finishing 7th etc ....behind it .....ratings can show that whereas it might be missed by just browsing the form as most people do .....its an "angle" 

Hi RIchard,

Interesting that you rate on average 3 - 4 races a day.  How do you choose your races; I'm sure that when I have read your posts that you quite often mention that the race in question is a "tricky" kind of race? Hence, why not focus on "easier" races?  Is it because the value just isn't there? 

I understand the concept of "value" however, proving it against a set criteria seems to me to be very difficult.  I am wondering how you can conclude that a horse is twice the price that it should be?  Is it a horse whose rating(s) is much higher than any other horse in the race or is there some other factor(s) involved?

Just interested that's all

 

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Tbh .....the hard tricky races tend to be where you find the best value ....if the form is complicated and hidden then most punters will miss the value horses ........my concept of value varies from race to race .....for instance I might rate a 16 runner hcap .....I'll scratch say 4 runners that's 12 left ......in ratings i might have 3 horses at the top

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 So I totally discount the 4 donkeys ....The technical way would be to convert each rating to a percentage based on the 12 horses ....then convert this to a price .....I do that sometimes but above I would say to myself that really it's a 6 horse race max so if I can get 13/2 plus I'll play .....so if top rated is 11/1 ....and 3rd rated 16/1 ....then I'm well over my value threshold ...over double on thex3rd rated  and the odds are stacked in my favour imo so I play ........the win or lose I take out the equation ....I play the value and I know sooner or later some nice prices are gonna win ......its a good way to bet because I feel I'm getting value for my money and not just backing a 9/4 fav ........take the rating above in the example ......knowing the computer has rated the horses chance and you can get 11/1 and 16/1 ???....is that not a good feeling ......doesnt matter about anything else you just know your striking a good bet and if you do that all the time you will always come out on top in the long run 

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