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GENERAL RACING CHIT CHAT


The Equaliser
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I'm like others .....I think he will be punished and that's rightly so but this is the world we live in now ......how many of us have done something so ridiculously stupid that you look back now and cringe and think ...why ??...imagine if someone suddenly pulled a photo out of that incident 6 years later or whatever ......does that define you as a person  ....shoukd you be punished forever ???...... not defending what he did cos hes a dickhead ...but who can say they havent done stupid things 

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1 hour ago, richard-westwood said:

I'm like others .....I think he will be punished and that's rightly so but this is the world we live in now ......how many of us have done something so ridiculously stupid that you look back now and cringe and think ...why ??...imagine if someone suddenly pulled a photo out of that incident 6 years later or whatever ......does that define you as a person  ....shoukd you be punished forever ???...... not defending what he did cos hes a dickhead ...but who can say they havent done stupid things 

Agree with you Richard, how far back in time should we go? If there was these smart cameras in the 80,s I'd be getting arrested this afternoon I'm sure, along with a lot more folk. In no way am I sticking up for him, however,none of us were there (as far as im aware) It seems this day and age you are guilty until proven innocent, rather than the other way round. He should and most probably will get a severe punishment, and that I agree with totally. 

I'm not a religious man but remember, "he who is without sin cast the first stone" 

This is just my opinion and I thought I'd get it in before we are not allowed one.

Take care everyone and good luck at naam.

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16 minutes ago, Point the way said:

Agree with you Richard, how far back in time should we go? If there was these smart cameras in the 80,s I'd be getting arrested this afternoon I'm sure, along with a lot more folk. In no way am I sticking up for him, however,none of us were there (as far as im aware) It seems this day and age you are guilty until proven innocent, rather than the other way round. He should and most probably will get a severe punishment, and that I agree with totally. 

I'm not a religious man but remember, "he who is without sin cast the first stone" 

This is just my opinion and I thought I'd get it in before we are not allowed one.

Take care everyone and good luck at naam.

Mate, nobody needs to be there. He was sat on a dead horse, on his phone, smiling. He admits the photo is not photoshopped. Thats it. Incidentally, not that it really matters, but the photo was taken less than 2 years ago ( and the horse was a Gigginstown horse!!!)

Its not a criminal offence, He cannot be arrested, he is not a criminal.

However as a follower of horse racing, a lover of animals, I find it unacceptable.

We all have our flaws, agreed. Nobody is perfect and most certainly we all make mistakes. But in my opinion this was not a mistake. This is who he is. He does not need forgiveness. You either accept him as a successful trainer with no moral ethics towards animals ( which is how I feel) . Or castigate him and say he should not be allowed to train horses again ( which I do not agree with, as he has not been accused of mistreating any horse). Or just move on and let time be a healer, forgive and forget. ( as I say thats upto individuals, but my opinion is that is who he is and you have to accept that..but there is no way I would allow him to train one of my horses)

I think the true professional trainers out there, will never accept him again. Because he has let down the industry.

I am sure he will find success, to a degree,again. But he will never be looked upon again like a Nicholls or a Mullins

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RATINGS UNDER SCRUTINY

12.30 Lud Qualismart  Top RPR of 134, 10 points clear of nearest rival (Timeform top and 9 points clear).  This horse is an odds on favourite (or evens one the Exchanges) to win this race.  When you look back in the Racing Post you will see that its last RPR when it got stuck in the mud was 114.  The time before that when it ran its most promising race the RPR was 128.  I cannot understand why it can jump from 128 (best run) to 134 now?  It has taken me a long time to accept ratings as a criteria for a selection, however as can be seen yesterday in the 2.40 at Wincanton Peltwell was the Timeform top rated and was backed up by being selected by them as a selection on the ATR website.  It won by a short head at 16/1.  Well done to them.  However, I see so many times a top rated horse, either RPR or Timeform being quoted at a price of 20/1 and above alongside a favourite next in line in the ratings.  It would seem that taking the higher price is the most logical decision.  However, I tend to ignore the highest rating when the market goes against them.  All very confusing to me.

In relation to Qualismart, it has been off the course for three months and, of course, it may well be the case that the trainer has been waiting for better drying conditions, but for my part I have dutched £4.50 win on Dabryn at 4.5 and £3 win on Quinta Do Mar at 5.5 with a possible return of a profit of £10.78 and £9.31 if either wins.  I feel more comfortable risking £7 on these two as opposed to £11 on Qualismart

I will be particularly interested in knowing how our "ratings" advocates on the forum distinguish between a top rated rag and and a near top rated horse in the same race?

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20 minutes ago, The Equaliser said:

RATINGS UNDER SCRUTINY

12.30 Lud Qualismart  Top RPR of 134, 10 points clear of nearest rival (Timeform top and 9 points clear).  This horse is an odds on favourite (or evens one the Exchanges) to win this race.  When you look back in the Racing Post you will see that its last RPR when it got stuck in the mud was 114.  The time before that when it ran its most promising race the RPR was 128.  I cannot understand why it can jump from 128 (best run) to 134 now?  It has taken me a long time to accept ratings as a criteria for a selection, however as can be seen yesterday in the 2.40 at Wincanton Peltwell was the Timeform top rated and was backed up by being selected by them as a selection on the ATR website.  It won by a short head at 16/1.  Well done to them.  However, I see so many times a top rated horse, either RPR or Timeform being quoted at a price of 20/1 and above alongside a favourite next in line in the ratings.  It would seem that taking the higher price is the most logical decision.  However, I tend to ignore the highest rating when the market goes against them.  All very confusing to me.

In relation to Qualismart, it has been off the course for three months and, of course, it may well be the case that the trainer has been waiting for better drying conditions, but for my part I have dutched £4.50 win on Dabryn at 4.5 and £3 win on Quinta Do Mar at 5.5 with a possible return of a profit of £10.78 and £9.31 if either wins.  I feel more comfortable risking £7 on these two as opposed to £11 on Qualismart

I will be particularly interested in knowing how our "ratings" advocates on the forum distinguish between a top rated rag and and a near top rated horse in the same race?

You make a fair point. I am not a ratings expert or a statistician. My opinion is that the Timeform experts and Ratings are a million times more reliable than The Racing Post IMHO. Of all the ratings, I believe the important one to be the OR. I do admit reading Timeform regularly and I will consider their ratings. The RP ratings I think are a load of hogwash.

The OR for the fav is 125. I think that is fair and about right. 134 from RP is way off. The fav beat a horse called Gunsight Ridge, a couple of lengths. THat horse franked the form and has rune decent recent races since ( coming 2nd to Gowell Road) Gunsight Ridge has an OR of 122, so 125 is about right for the fav. The top one will have an OR of approx 122, based on its beating of a horse called Star Acdemy (OR 119). Therefore the fav should beat the top one by a couple of lengths. Personally I think the favourite is a good thing, as for anything else to beat it would need an OR exceeding 119 ( taking into consideration the weight it gives away) . Maybe something is lurking, but I don't see it on form shown to date

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57 minutes ago, The Equaliser said:

RATINGS UNDER SCRUTINY

12.30 Lud Qualismart  Top RPR of 134, 10 points clear of nearest rival (Timeform top and 9 points clear).  This horse is an odds on favourite (or evens one the Exchanges) to win this race.  When you look back in the Racing Post you will see that its last RPR when it got stuck in the mud was 114.  The time before that when it ran its most promising race the RPR was 128.  I cannot understand why it can jump from 128 (best run) to 134 now? 

Just on this point

The RPR for Jumps are weight adjusted to 12 stones .......... so the 128 is what he would have to run to that day if he'd been carrying 12 stones

That day he was carrying 10-12 so 16lbs under 12 stones. So on that day he actually ran 144 but he would have run 128 if he'd been carrying 12 stones

So today at 11 stone 8lbs he's 6 lbs below 12 stones so he gets 6 points added to his RPR of 128 to give 134 ...... 

If he'd been carrying 12 stones 5lbs today he'd have 5 lbs taken off the 128 and his RPR today would be 123

The RPR for past races is what he would have earned on that day if he'd been carrying 12 stones ...... as this is the same then for all horses in all runs it makes comparing each run of each horse easier because the ratings are adjusted as though they were all carrying the same weight

 

 

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4 minutes ago, Trotter said:

Just on this point

The RPR for Jumps are weight adjusted to 12 stones .......... so the 128 is what he would have to run to that day if he'd been carrying 12 stones

That day he was carrying 10-12 so 16lbs under 12 stones. So on that day he actually ran 144 but he would have run 128 if he'd been carrying 12 stones

So today at 11 stone 8lbs he's 6 lbs below 12 stones so he gets 6 points added to his RPR of 128 to give 134 ...... 

If he'd been carrying 12 stones 5lbs today he'd have 5 lbs taken off the 128 and his RPR today would be 123

The RPR for past races is what he would have earned on that day if he'd been carrying 12 stones ...... as this is the same then for all horses in all runs it makes comparing each run of each horse easier because the ratings are adjusted as though they were all carrying the same weight

 

 

Very many thanks for your help.  Is it possible for you to tell me what the adjusted weights for the RPR is on the flat and, if it is the same for the all weather

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11 minutes ago, The Equaliser said:

Very many thanks for your help.  Is it possible for you to tell me what the adjusted weights for the RPR is on the flat and, if it is the same for the all weather

yeah, on the flat and AW all the RPRs are adjusted to 10 stones

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17 minutes ago, Trotter said:

Just on this point

The RPR for Jumps are weight adjusted to 12 stones .......... so the 128 is what he would have to run to that day if he'd been carrying 12 stones

That day he was carrying 10-12 so 16lbs under 12 stones. So on that day he actually ran 144 but he would have run 128 if he'd been carrying 12 stones

So today at 11 stone 8lbs he's 6 lbs below 12 stones so he gets 6 points added to his RPR of 128 to give 134 ...... 

If he'd been carrying 12 stones 5lbs today he'd have 5 lbs taken off the 128 and his RPR today would be 123

The RPR for past races is what he would have earned on that day if he'd been carrying 12 stones ...... as this is the same then for all horses in all runs it makes comparing each run of each horse easier because the ratings are adjusted as though they were all carrying the same weight

 

 

In my opinion RPR is purely guesswork put together by journo's who do not do their homework properly. At least with Timeform they will give you a reason as to why they rate a certain horse a certain way. In this opener at Ludlow, the fav is 134, 2nd fav 119. However they get to that figure, they are saying the fav is a better horse by 15lb!!. Working it as 1lb=1 length ( some on this forum make a point that it should be 1lb= 2 lengths) , then the fav should beat the 2nd fav by 15-30lengths. Sorry I just don't see that. I think the fav wins but it cannot beat it by that far if both run reasonably to within their handicap marks. 2nd fav's OR will be around 122. So I expect the distance to be 2-3 lengths. It will be an interesting watch.

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All form ratings are opinions .... it's somebody's opinion of what the form was worth

I think maybe RPR and Timeform are different .......

I think RPR are trying to put a figure on what each past run is worth in terms of form on a common standard so all past runs by all horses can be directly compared with a figure

I believe Timeform are doing something different ....... saying what they think a horse is capable of in the future, hence all the p and P and squiggles etc. Of course an opinion of past form is built into that 

But it all comes down to opinion ........ was that run at Sedgefield two weeks ago worth 130 or 120 ?

It's opinion.

All you can hope for from any ratings is that they use the same criteria today as they did last week and the ratings are consistently formed on the same basis year after year and hence performances are being compared to the same standard all the time

 

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As for today's race what the RPR is saying is that the run of Quasiamart on 5th Nov in their opinion was a 15lb better performance than the run of Dobryn on 13th Jan

That's their assessment of those 2 runs

That's only 1 factor to take into account for today though .... is one of the horses improving rapidly and might leave previous RPRs behind ...... has one of them got much more favourable conditions as to the ground, trip etc today and therefore might do much better than he has in previous runs. Alternatively did one horse have perfect conditions when it earned it's rating but probably won't be suited by todays ground and trip so will probably score lower today

Is one yard in form now but was out of form when the horse earned it's previous rating ........ so the horse might run much better today

etc, etc

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not much in to rating myself, but going by them in races like this doesnt make sense to me, the horses are only just starting out hurdling, there are too many unknowns, some dont even have a rating, they are on debut, mostly they have 1 or 2 runs over hurdles and are likely to be learning and improving with racing. it could come down to who improves the most on the day, can be a bit of a guessing game, although sometimes worth a bit of a guess at a decent price

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2 hours ago, The Equaliser said:

RATINGS UNDER SCRUTINY

12.30 Lud Qualismart  Top RPR of 134, 10 points clear of nearest rival (Timeform top and 9 points clear).  This horse is an odds on favourite (or evens one the Exchanges) to win this race.  When you look back in the Racing Post you will see that its last RPR when it got stuck in the mud was 114.  The time before that when it ran its most promising race the RPR was 128.  I cannot understand why it can jump from 128 (best run) to 134 now?  It has taken me a long time to accept ratings as a criteria for a selection, however as can be seen yesterday in the 2.40 at Wincanton Peltwell was the Timeform top rated and was backed up by being selected by them as a selection on the ATR website.  It won by a short head at 16/1.  Well done to them.  However, I see so many times a top rated horse, either RPR or Timeform being quoted at a price of 20/1 and above alongside a favourite next in line in the ratings.  It would seem that taking the higher price is the most logical decision.  However, I tend to ignore the highest rating when the market goes against them.  All very confusing to me.

In relation to Qualismart, it has been off the course for three months and, of course, it may well be the case that the trainer has been waiting for better drying conditions, but for my part I have dutched £4.50 win on Dabryn at 4.5 and £3 win on Quinta Do Mar at 5.5 with a possible return of a profit of £10.78 and £9.31 if either wins.  I feel more comfortable risking £7 on these two as opposed to £11 on Qualismart

I will be particularly interested in knowing how our "ratings" advocates on the forum distinguish between a top rated rag and and a near top rated horse in the same race?

See mate, ignore RPR!!!😄

Carry on, you dont need them. Use your own instinct.

Well done.

Mine ran too free, but no excuses

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29 minutes ago, kroni said:

not much in to rating myself, but going by them in races like this doesnt make sense to me, the horses are only just starting out hurdling, there are too many unknowns, some dont even have a rating, they are on debut, mostly they have 1 or 2 runs over hurdles and are likely to be learning and improving with racing. it could come down to who improves the most on the day, can be a bit of a guessing game, although sometimes worth a bit of a guess at a decent price

True

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I think RPR are more useful when it comes to grizzled old handicappers who have run a few dozen times

Years ago when I was concentrating on AW handicaps I used to look at RPR ..... and I was looking to see if there was any pattern in a horse's past form. These were lower grade handicaps full of well experienced horses

So I was looking to see if a horse produced it's best RPRs at one of the AW tracks over the others or at a specific distance or in a specific class of race or in big or small fields........ I was trying to guage whether today's race was likely to see the horse at his best in comparison to what it had done before

As always though ...... this was only one factor amongst several that went in to the race assessment

 

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Posted (edited)
1 hour ago, Trotter said:

I think RPR are more useful when it comes to grizzled old handicappers who have run a few dozen times

Years ago when I was concentrating on AW handicaps I used to look at RPR ..... and I was looking to see if there was any pattern in a horse's past form. These were lower grade handicaps full of well experienced horses

So I was looking to see if a horse produced it's best RPRs at one of the AW tracks over the others or at a specific distance or in a specific class of race or in big or small fields........ I was trying to guage whether today's race was likely to see the horse at his best in comparison to what it had done before

As always though ...... this was only one factor amongst several that went in to the race assessment

 

I'm just wondering if there is any way to relate the ratings back to the OR to gain benefits.  I seem to remember @TheBrigadiersaying that he liked to look at horses slipping down the handicap so as to sieze upon a value bet of a horse that has now dropped to its previous winning mark.  Can one relate the OR to ratings to be of benefit?

 

Edited by The Equaliser
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1 hour ago, Wanderlust said:

See mate, ignore RPR!!!😄

Carry on, you dont need them. Use your own instinct.

Well done.

Mine ran too free, but no excuses

Well, it wasn't just instinct.  The favourite had been off over 90 days and it flopped in its previous race.  Either the trainer was right to wait for drying ground or the horse had real problems in the previous race and needed some time to get right again.  I don't really have a criteria for "bouncing back to form" so I usually let the selection go and wait to see what happens.

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3 hours ago, Villa Chris said:

Cheers ted, but I meant on Punters Lounge . Nice to see Ballyadam selected twice on the link you’ve put up and he’s also Punters Lounge selection . Got him ew at 12/1.

I'm the opposite i don't really like to see horses i fancy tipped up much but i am a bit weird. I fancy & have backed Shantou Flyer 16/1 e/w  starting to go off it as its been well tipped up.

Edited by Tedthewolf
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13 hours ago, Villa Chris said:

I see the Cheltenham festival tips are uploaded on the site. Who picks the selections? 

Don't you think that by reading umpteen other experts opinions that that clouds your own judgement or are you hoping to pick up a snippet of info that you've not thought about ?

 

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53 minutes ago, calva decoy said:

Don't you think that by reading umpteen other experts opinions that that clouds your own judgement or are you hoping to pick up a snippet of info that you've not thought about ?

 

But as punters and form studiers its good  to read what others have to say thats why i am on here to give  my opinion and read the thoughts of others on here  and the odd time i would back a horse after doing so. Some  very usefull info to be found on here and in other outlets i wouldnt knock it you just gotta sort the wheat from the chaff well thats my thoughts anyway👍

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5 hours ago, Villa Chris said:

Cheers ted, but I meant on Punters Lounge . Nice to see Ballyadam selected twice on the link you’ve put up and he’s also Punters Lounge selection . Got him ew at 12/1.

Imo it's a shame the slections could'nt be a combi of different posters on here but realize it would be hard for that to work out.

 

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1 hour ago, Tedthewolf said:

But as punters and form studiers its good  to read what others have to say thats why i am on here to give  my opinion and read the thoughts of others on here  and the odd time i would back a horse after doing so. Some  very usefull info to be found on here and in other outlets i wouldnt knock it you just gotta sort the wheat from the chaff well thats my thoughts anyway👍

Yeah I get that Ted , but lots of times I've been swayed to change my opinion by watching all the preview shows & on different forums taking other people's opinions in & have regretted so .

For me Cheltenham will start after the weekly detailed weather forecast on Sunday & I'll try & avoid as much input from others after I've backed my daily selections & then look what others fancy.

For me Cheltenham the best 4 days racing on the calendar yet where I probably end up in pocket 1 in every 4 festivals hence I think the stats are only 5-7% of punters are successful bettors of National Hunt racing whereas only 3-5% on the flat , talking of which , only about 3 weeks away from The Lincoln 👍

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I agree with Calva .... I never watch any of the Cheltenham Previews

I'm not that bothered about what 'experts' think and I reckon if you watched all the previews on TV, YouTube and elsewhere you'd have 10 horses selected in every race

All these Cheltenham Previews are just nice little earners for the racing chattering classes

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5 hours ago, calva decoy said:

Don't you think that by reading umpteen other experts opinions that that clouds your own judgement or are you hoping to pick up a snippet of info that you've not thought about ?

 

I never follow tipsters now. I do my own selections whether it be my own ratings or if I really fancy a horse who’s a good bet in a top graded race. What I’ll do though once I’ve done my selections I’ll then look at what the tipsters have selected, not that it really means anything. 

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