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GENERAL RACING CHIT CHAT


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I’ve looked into stuff but I haven’t a clue about any of it. I also don’t think I’d like to risk money for financial gain, apart from on the horses which  as you say is harder to make money on  😀  I’m at point now where I’d like an income for later on in life. I’m self employed so don’t have a company pension to fall back on

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I dont find much value in graded and group class races ....sometimes you can but bookies are very very good at pricing them up and the odds are stacked in their favour .... I tend to find a lot o

I think C/D winners are useful at quirky tracks Chester Goodwood Brighton Catterick Cartmel Ripon Fakenham possibly Musselburgh Not sure how much they are worth elsewhere, hand

Surely the primary object of the exercise in backing horses is to make money and that is my point i make money by napping value, the old adage that horses don't know what price they are rings true. li

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2 hours ago, Villa Chris said:

Maybe the wonderful horses that we bet on are proper racing fit by December, so that may show up in your profits. I’m surprised how many jump horses even late November have yet to race that season. Paul Nichols has got off to a good start. I could be wrong but doesn’t he usually take time to warm up? 

I've had a quick look at Nichols stats and he appears to do better in the 2nd half of the season. He has an AE of 1.05 from February to April but only 0.96 from November to January.

 

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2 minutes ago, MCLARKE said:

I've had a quick look at Nichols stats and he appears to do better in the 2nd half of the season. He has an AE of 1.05 from February to April but only 0.96 from November to January.

 

Yeah thought he usually started off a bit slow. Same could be said for a lot of yards though. Seems he’s got off to a good start this year though. 

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4 hours ago, Villa Chris said:

I’m at point now where I’d like an income for later on in life. I’m self employed so don’t have a company pension to fall back on

The earlier you invest the better due to compound growth, I think it was Albert Einstein who called compound growth the eight wonder of the world.

 

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18 hours ago, MCLARKE said:

Yes, it's difficult to strike a balance, I think if you randomly picked 100/1 shots you would probably win the competition a couple of time a year but if you bet real money on them you would lose a fortune.

Perhaps it might be good to have an annual naps competition, that should be a truer test. Anybody any views on this ?

SUGESTION FOR A CHANGE TO PRIZE MONEY IN THE DAILY NAPS COMPETITION

I believe that it was me who initiated the change in the rules to allow a prize for the most winners.  It was supported by a lot of long time members and Graham obliged us with the new prize.  As I pointed out to Graham, before the prize was brought into being that it didn't seem worthwhile to me to put what I truly thought was the best bet of the day because someone would always come along and put up a winning outsider.  This of course is not to say that a long shot is not someone's best bet of the day.  I'm sure that if one looks back over the years one will find a few regular winners of the competition by using such a strategy which kind of justifies the make up of the competition as it is. 

However, I do feel that if one makes adjustments to the prize money then Punters Lounge Tipsters could get the best of both worlds.

At the moment the prize makeup is 1st £60, 2nd £30, 3rd £20 and fourth £10.  The tipster with the most winners and showing at least a £10 profit gets a prize of £20.  The total pot is £140.  if the prize make up was changed to 1st £60, 2nd £20 and 3rd £10 and the fourth prize was dropped then this would allow a prize of £50 to the punter who had the most winners and showed a profit of at least £10.  This may encourage more tipsters to select what they truly believe to be their best bet of the day whilst still handsomely rewarding the outright winner with the most profit as well.  In this way Punters Lounge does not have pay out any more prize money each month.

Just a thought

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10 minutes ago, MCLARKE said:

Thanks for the comments.

I'll let it run as it is for the time being and we'll see how it goes.

As I say one option could be to have a 12 month competition, this should be a true test, you would be unlikely to win this by randomly picking long shots.

I think we've always had a 12 month competition which consisted of adding up the monthly totals of people who'd made a certain amount of posts

Actually there used to be prizes as well ..... not money but bronze horse statues

I've got 3 of them here ! ....... 😄

But I don't think a separate 12 month comp would work ....... it's too long a period to maintain interest, particularly if you seem out of contention after a few months. We know that some people stop posting in the monthly comp if they have a few losers at the beginning of the month !

A pretty drastic solution could be to have a rule whereby maximum odds for a selection was, say, 10/1 ...... in which case you're trying to take 'pot luck' out of it but rewarding punters who pick a decent number of winners

It's a tricky one though because I'm sure lots of posters enjoy the thrill of trying to land the big one ...... and that is an integral part of racing and betting

Maybe a separate spin off comp with a 'minimum odds' of 33/1 !

 

 

 

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1 hour ago, MCLARKE said:

Thanks for the comments.

I'll let it run as it is for the time being and we'll see how it goes.

As I say one option could be to have a 12 month competition, this should be a true test, you would be unlikely to win this by randomly picking long shots.

I agree with Trotter that a 12 months comp is too long and quite frankly it would kill the goose that laid the golden egg.  Right now PL has in excess of 100 participants in the nap comp each month.  These comprise of some very good tipsters who quite rightly test out their skill in winning the competition.  

However, I believe that the "most winners" prize is just too low to attract the right number of tipsters in putting up their truly best bets.  Having had a few drinks I am tempted to put up an extra £30 in prize money for the most winners myself to prove the point that PL can only benefit by an increased quality of selections for this purpose.

Send me PL bank details and I will send the money right now/

 

 

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1 minute ago, Villa Chris said:

Maybe a bit of a write up on why you have Napped the selection will do just fine. Might put people off having huge odds just to try and get lucky. 

Not so sure about write up's Chris; I've been reading them for years from most of the sporting press.  More often than not they tempt me into backing something that I shouldn't have done.

I suppose that now I am focussing on top rated by either RPR and/or Timeform that the most logical extension to this is to check and report as to Recent Form, Class, Going, Distance and with the flat runners, the draw.  If one can tick all these boxes then hopefully one can have a selection with a decent chance of winning

 

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2 minutes ago, The Equaliser said:

Not so sure about write up's Chris; I've been reading them for years from most of the sporting press.  More often than not they tempt me into backing something that I shouldn't have done.

I suppose that now I am focussing on top rated by either RPR and/or Timeform that the most logical extension to this is to check and report as to Recent Form, Class, Going, Distance and with the flat runners, the draw.  If one can tick all these boxes then hopefully one can have a selection with a decent chance of winning

 

I think it would help people understand why someone has napped an 80/1. You wouldn’t have to write an essay , but just a few words as to why you have napped it. It might put people off napping these huge outsiders that are picked for the wrong reasons. 

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13 minutes ago, Villa Chris said:

Saying that if everyone is happy with how it is at the moment then don’t change it. I’ve personally got no problem with it, but it would be better if it was a proper naps competition without the silly odds, that do come in from time to time, but are no way naps .

That's the very point that I have been trying to make.  If the prize money for most winners was increased to £50, still keeping the main prize at £60 for the most profit in the month I am convinced that the Forum's good tipsters would focus on what we like to think of being the true best bets of the day, albeit these being at short odds. Why I have even noticed that @Zilzalianhas posted up an 11/8 shot in the 8.00pm tonight at Wolverhampton tonight.  He doesn't name it but I think he meant Royal Pleasure (he usually picks outsiders) 🙂

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16 minutes ago, The Equaliser said:

That's the very point that I have been trying to make.  If the prize money for most winners was increased to £50, still keeping the main prize at £60 for the most profit in the month I am convinced that the Forum's good tipsters would focus on what we like to think of being the true best bets of the day, albeit these being at short odds. Why I have even noticed that @Zilzalianhas posted up an 11/8 shot in the 8.00pm tonight at Wolverhampton tonight.  He doesn't name it but I think he meant Royal Pleasure (he usually picks outsiders) 🙂

I’m sure it will sort. I’d enter but I don’t like looking at horses everyday as it gives me headache, and tires me out. Hard graft at times. 

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16 minutes ago, Valiant Thor said:

More like 30yrs ago
BELPER trained by John Dunlop

No, that's not the one I was thinking of ...... my one was definitely since I came back to racing after a dozen years 'break' and that was in 2008, so it's since then

The one I'm thinking of might have won group races or at least run in group and listed races

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2 minutes ago, Trotter said:

No, that's not the one I was thinking of ...... my one was definitely since I came back to racing after a dozen years 'break' and that was in 2008, so it's since then

The one I'm thinking of might have won group races or at least run in group and listed races

Material World...... ran in 2008 World Hurdle @ Chelt

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On 12/1/2020 at 3:13 PM, MCLARKE said:

Yep, best leave best alone for the time being , if it ain't broke don't fix it.

Food for thought..(I'm a newbie, so I won't be offended if you dismiss this idea! I'm used to it!).

The competition for most wins encourages safe bets

The competition for highest p/l encourages huge odds with people trying to get lucky(i've only joined in this month and have already fallen in this trap)

A solution could be to introduce a "score column" which is the product of the P/L x the number of wins. This would encourage safe, but not too safe bets, discourage the one off big odds hunters, and also encourage/reward members to play every day.

On a slightly different note, I've been on this site a while(passively) and I think you're all doing a great job with the comps and forums, thank you.

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Thanks Clarke and welcome to the forum.

All ideas are welcome.

There is a lot of logic in what you say, the trick is to keep it simple but fair. There are pros and cons to most of the ideas that have been put forward.

At some stage I may put up all the various ideas as a separate thread and see how many likes we get for each one.

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On 12/1/2020 at 11:27 AM, The Equaliser said:
  •  

SUGESTION FOR A CHANGE TO PRIZE MONEY IN THE DAILY NAPS COMPETITION

I believe that it was me who initiated the change in the rules to allow a prize for the most winners.  It was supported by a lot of long time members and Graham obliged us with the new prize.  As I pointed out to Graham, before the prize was brought into being that it didn't seem worthwhile to me to put what I truly thought was the best bet of the day because someone would always come along and put up a winning outsider.  This of course is not to say that a long shot is not someone's best bet of the day.  I'm sure that if one looks back over the years one will find a few regular winners of the competition by using such a strategy which kind of justifies the make up of the competition as it is. 

However, I do feel that if one makes adjustments to the prize money then Punters Lounge Tipsters could get the best of both worlds.

At the moment the prize makeup is 1st £60, 2nd £30, 3rd £20 and fourth £10.  The tipster with the most winners and showing at least a £10 profit gets a prize of £20.  The total pot is £140.  if the prize make up was changed to 1st £60, 2nd £20 and 3rd £10 and the fourth prize was dropped then this would allow a prize of £50 to the punter who had the most winners and showed a profit of at least £10.  This may encourage more tipsters to select what they truly believe to be their best bet of the day whilst still handsomely rewarding the outright winner with the most profit as well.  In this way Punters Lounge does not have pay out any more prize money each month.

Just a thought

Quite interesting thread, Long shots v short odds nap, A separate yearly total prize is a good idea, personally i would increase the minimum selection requirement to 20 or 25 from the current 15. it would stop people from winning by not napping. the suggestion that people napping long shots "for luck" is valid in some cases but the proof is in the pudding, 10 quid on every one of my naps since i joined (4 months) would have netted you about £1000 i have been in profit for each of the last 4 months and if it wasn't for my 50/1 dead heating for 4th place on the last day of september i would have topped the table 2 out of the four months i have been on here, can anyone napping short prices say the same? @Villa Chris @The Equaliser i occasionally do nap a short one but only where i think its my only option. i detected a bit of snobbery on some of the comments, i put more work into my racing and selecting than people would have others believe. One thing everybody should know but some don't like to admit, is you cant make a profit backing favs that's for sure.

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26 minutes ago, Zilzalian said:

Quite interesting thread, Long shots v short odds nap, A separate yearly total prize is a good idea, personally i would increase the minimum selection requirement to 20 or 25 from the current 15. it would stop people from winning by not napping. the suggestion that people napping long shots "for luck" is valid in some cases but the proof is in the pudding, 10 quid on every one of my naps since i joined (4 months) would have netted you about £1000 i have been in profit for each of the last 4 months and if it wasn't for my 50/1 dead heating for 4th place on the last day of september i would have topped the table 2 out of the four months i have been on here, can anyone napping short prices say the same? @Villa Chris @The Equaliser i occasionally do nap a short one but only where i think its my only option. i detected a bit of snobbery on some of the comments, i put more work into my racing and selecting than people would have others believe. One thing everybody should know but some don't like to admit, is you cant make a profit backing favs that's for sure.

If napping your selections at big prices is your thing then fair play to you. If you put the work and effort into finding big priced selections that you think are overpriced or can out run their odds, then that cannot be knocked. I’m as against short odd naps as I am big priced naps. If someone is napping ridiculously short odds all the time then where is the work in that, and where’s the value . 4/5 is as low as I’d go with a nap. Saying that a nap is meant to be the most likely winner of the day isn’t it? Personally I don’t like doing naps because I don’t look at all the races so how would I know which is the most likely winner of the day. I suppose nap can mean different things to different people. When I do my selections I always have one horse in my head who I think is my best chance of winning some money that day, so that’s my own personal nap. I’ve entered this months nap competition, but I doubt I’ll see it through because I just don’t look at racing everyday. 

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13 minutes ago, Villa Chris said:

If napping your selections at big prices is your thing then fair play to you. If you put the work and effort into finding big priced selections that you think are overpriced or can out run their odds, then that cannot be knocked. I’m as against short odd naps as I am big priced naps. If someone is napping ridiculously short odds all the time then where is the work in that, and where’s the value . 4/5 is as low as I’d go with a nap. Saying that a nap is meant to be the most likely winner of the day isn’t it? Personally I don’t like doing naps because I don’t look at all the races so how would I know which is the most likely winner of the day. I suppose nap can mean different things to different people. When I do my selections I always have one horse in my head who I think is my best chance of winning some money that day, so that’s my own personal nap. I’ve entered this months nap competition, but I doubt I’ll see it through because I just don’t look at racing everyday. 

Surely the primary object of the exercise in backing horses is to make money and that is my point i make money by napping value, the old adage that horses don't know what price they are rings true. like i said above i have made about £1,000 quid just on my naps to a tenner, how many short price "nappers" on here can boast the same? You say and i quote "if its your thing" my thing is to make money out of the fun of watching and studying horse races. i respect what you are saying about you dont look at racing every day so why not just look at 1 race a day and pop one in the comp ad hoc takes only seconds and at least it gives you a shout.

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15 minutes ago, Zilzalian said:

Surely the primary object of the exercise in backing horses is to make money and that is my point i make money by napping value, the old adage that horses don't know what price they are rings true. like i said above i have made about £1,000 quid just on my naps to a tenner, how many short price "nappers" on here can boast the same? You say and i quote "if its your thing" my thing is to make money out of the fun of watching and studying horse races. i respect what you are saying about you dont look at racing every day so why not just look at 1 race a day and pop one in the comp ad hoc takes only seconds and at least it gives you a shout.

I enjoy horse racing full stop, although losing runs can get you down, but yes money is the main objective, even if you only win a few quid. I’ve probably came across the wrong way, and to be honest I’m not fussed whether the rules change or not, but I wish you luck with your approach .  To narrow my selections down I only bet on class 2 and no higher than Grade 2. Basically that’s what I’ve done this week, I’ll scan cards and pick a race out and put the selection as nap in the nap thread, although I probably won’t see the month out as I’ll miss a few days then think sod it.  

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