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Fader

Worlds (inc Qualifiers)

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On 8/3/2020 at 9:48 AM, notanotherdonkey said:

So why did you Quote Gilbert has won the last 4 matches head to head.so in theory you where betting on him again to win the match.Was actually a good match and Malflin deserved to win.

h2h is only ever part of the puzzle @notanotherdonkey Sometimes a positive h2h will be a reason to make a bet and sometimes a negative h2h will be reason to make a bet - most simplistically if a punter believes that the h2h has skewed the odds away from where they should be.

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On 8/3/2020 at 7:07 PM, notanotherdonkey said:

Is that not what the forum is for at the end of the day if you can not handle criticism and being positive what is the use of a forum...

I don't think anybody on here who is reasonable has an issue with criticism or critiquing of posted picks @notanotherdonkey as long as it's done in the right way. For example if you'd countered @Fader by mentioning your thoughts on the h2h and how you thought it might impact the match before it had started that might have been better received.

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Anyway @notanotherdonkey I've no axe to grind with you. IMO this forum works best when there are different points of view posted which can then be used as a basis to decide what way you want to bet. Like a lot of things in life, betting is all just opinions really and what one person can use in support of a bet is the same thing someone else can use to decide against it :ok

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agreed.

We have matches starting at 1pm today. I'll be leaving the Hawkins match alone as that looks to be an already decided match but the Higgins Vs Maflin match looks interesting. Maflin got a very out-of-sorts Gilbert in round 1 but he took full advantage and scored very well. I think he can keep things close against Higgins and I'm also going to take Maflin to hit the highest break. Maflin won the last h2h between the two and hit 4 centuries against Gilbert. We haven't seen a century from Higgins yet. Infact 74 was his highest break against Stevens.

6pts K.Maflin (+4.5 frames) to beat J.Higgins 4/6 betfred
2.5pts K.Maflin highest break 7/5 betfred

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cheers Fader thanks for your work and nevermind the monkeys !!

 

What your tought on the thai fellon vs Selby ....   .. "jester from leicester" looks way far from his top  .. actually brown should have won that match smthg like 10-4 - not an expert so probably overstatement yet jordan was all over floor somehwat ... pressure or smthg ... but thai fella is cool as a handkerchief as we say here ... 

 

and are not both Trump and Ronnie odds overinflated .. this oriental guys with their inscrutable faces for westerners can be  a pain in the ar$e .... but im not expert .. maybe no stands public benefits them as well ..feel more "not so far far away "    ... sort of like training and so on ...

 

 

Cheers and keep it up broder !!


 
Edited by litost

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also the new rising start jamie clarke looks overpriced vs mcgill that had trouble to finish it up vs lisowsky .... 

he was cool all along vs top notch competition like allen ...  double of both pays over 10´s and im gonna put a mortgage job on it just in case ... with earnings ill flee tp some isolated island be4 they lock us all  down again !! ....

 

nope just kiding probably experience its a huge bonus at this game ... and prices are about right but just wonder couse the guy looks classy ...

 

best regards!!

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Thanks Litost, 

I think I will probably be looking at Saengkham on a handicap atleast as Selby isn't the Selby of old atall and although Saengkham had it easy in the last round, he played really well and didn't miss much atall. Like you say, the composure was pretty impressive.

I would probably say similar with Bingtao. He's playing well but he gave alot of chances early on and Trump will punish those. Ding beat Ronnie last time they met which will help him mentally for sure. He's just beat Mark King so it's hard to know where he is at currently but if he turns up who knows.

Looking at tonight, I'm going to take Bingham to beat Williams. I think Williams form is hard to gauge after beating Alan McManus and in Bingham we will truly see where he is at. Bingham is certainly playing well though and has just beat a player bang in form in Ash Carty. That could have easily been a different kind of match on another day. Bingham is alot better in the longer format. He's already beaten Williams in January when he won the Masters. 

5pts S.Bingham to beat M.Williams 4/5 bet365
4pts S.Bingham (-2.5 frames) to beat M.Williams 6/4 bet365

 

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Very strange session lastnight. Bingham misses the black to go 3-1 up, williams wins the re-spot black to go 2-2 and then Williams turns into a machine for 3 frames but at 5-3 I still think Bingham comes through that.

Looking at this mornings matches Maflin continues his great form against Higgins with a lead and Saengkham takes on Selby. I have a feeling it's going to be a different Saengkham this morning and I also feel like Selby will play better. With that in mind, I still think it's worth taking Saengkham on the handicap.

In the 2.30 matches after looking at head-2-heads and recent form and such I'm going to take Judd on a handicap. I think the fact Bingtao lost so many frames back-to-back and the fact he looked so nervous, I don't think he just forgets that and if Judd gets going early it could easily turn into a big defecit session and one hard to come back from.

6pts N.Saengkham (+3.5 frames) to beat M.Selby 5/6 bet365
5pts J.Trump (-4.5 frames) to beat Y.Bingtao 4/5 betfred
1pt accy - Trump -4.5 / Maflin to beat Higgins / Bingham to beat Williams / Saengkham to beat Selby 30/1 betfair

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Maflin comes through to beat Higgins. I thought he may bottle it once it got to 10-10 but he played really well and you would have to say he looks likely to make a semi-final now. I can't see the winner of McGill and Jamie Clarke. We shall see how they play. Maflin more than covers the handicap but ofcourse didn't make the highest break with Higgins hitting a 147.

This morning sees the conclusion of Williams Vs Bingham. I'll be hoping for Bingham to start well and pull away in that. Judd vs Bingtao also continues. Trump was plain awful yesterday and was lucky to get it to 5-3 down. If he plays to his normal standard I still think the handicap is achievable but will need to win the first session 3-1 atleast.

In the afternoon matches Selby Vs Saengkham is locked at 8-8. I'd like to think Saengkham can hit the hanidcap there as he only needs to get to 10 frames and it's been quite an even match. There is still a unlikely outsiders chance of the accy ofcourse.

I have McGill to win his quarter and I'm not too keen to get involved in the McGill vs Clarke match. McGill played really well against Lisowski until abit of nerves got to him. Clarkes performance was inspired and to beat anybody who has hit 5 centuries against you and 3 50+ breaks in the 8 frames they've won, it's got to be pretty special. However, most of the time when a player wins a match like that, the next match the level drops and so the only bet I would consider is how many frames we will see.

Ding plays Ronnie tonight. What a match that will be. Ding can finally play Ronnie now without his head going and he's beaten him in the last match and beaten him at the bigges stage. It does worry me though that he's only just beat Mark King whilst Ronnie is destroying Un-Nooh. I'll go with both to make 2 centuries+ I think it's a given that Ronnie does that and if Ding wants to stay in this game he will need to do it too.

2pts R O'Sullivan Vs D.Junhui - both players to make 2+ centuries 7/4 betfair

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