Racing Chat - Tuesday July 7th

[BillyHills]

3 flat 2 jumps, 3 English 2 Irish

 

Nap: 520 NA: Doc Kauto 11/4 bet365

Nb: 150 P: Garsman 5/2 bet365

 

Favourites
310 NA: Ashutor 4/7 bet365
1215P: Crystal Pegasus 1/2 bet365
100 R: Divinely 4/5 bet365
550 NA: Bob Pebble 1/1 bet365
700 K: Galvin 4/9 F/C

EW
250 P: Kingston Kurrajong 5/1 bet365
450 NA: Lucca Lady 12/1 bet365
430 P: Mutabaahy 8/1 bet365

 

 

[ipswich45]

A little bit of fun        each televised meeting i will put a NAP, NB and a One to Watch       prices shown will be Bet365

Tuesday 7th July

Leicester
NAP:                       1710 Fox Hill        11/4
NB:                        1640 Beverage        5/1 
One to Watch:        1815 Confrerie        7/2

Newton Abbot
NAP:                      1650 Lord Byron        9/2
NB:                        1440 Lemon Shoulder    5/1
One to Watch:        1340 Itoldyoutobackit    6/1

Pontefract
NAP:                     1245 Sudona        10/3
NB:                        1420 Dancin Boy        3/1
One to Watch:        1315 Manolith        6/1

Killarney
NAP:                      1625 Mystery Stowaway    5/2
NB:                        1830 Contingency    11/4
One to Watch:        1800 Jury Duty        12/1

Roscommon:
NAP:                       1400 Noble Music    9/4
NB:                          1500 Ideal Pal        6/1
One to Watch:          1330 Eglish        7/1

Clairefontaine:
NAP:                          1110 Perfect        11/4
NB:                        1140 Remorse        6/4
One to Watch:        1210 Agreed        6/1

Angers:
NAP:                         2000 Holly        13/8
NB:                          1730 Stormy Air        11/4
One to Watch:          1655 Gaetano Donizetti    9/2

Thistledown:
NAP:                       1850 Kole Man Can    15/8
NB:                          1750 Candy's Revenge    13/8
One to Watch:        2020 Make The Rules    6/1

[The Equaliser]

No Trixie today as I could only find two runners worthy of support.

3.20 Pont Salayel £2 win at 3/1 ( I don't think that Scentasia will have the stamina for this stiff mile)
3.55 Pont Golden Apollo £2 win at 7/2 (Summerghand is odds on here but I feel that a hold up horse is worth opposing)

£4 win double = poss return of £72

Other singles bets:

1.50 Pont Harry Love 25p win at 28/1
1.50 Pont Queen's Order 25p at 20/1

3.55 Pont Watchable 50p at 12/1

Total stakes = £9.00

Back later with other Lay bets but I will lay Summerghand £21.10 @ 1.95 = £20 v £20 liability (in some ways I don't mind if it wins as my fellow punters who follow favourites will win some dosh)

A complete blank today.  I was wrong to oppose Summerghand but right in opposing Scentasia.

£4 loss on Multiples = £648.04 C/Fwd (£800 Bank)

£5 loss on Singles = £381.05 C/Fwd (£400 Bank)

Edited July 7, 2020 by The Equaliser
Results update

[Darran]

It is good to have jump racing back and hopefully we will see some well handicapped pointers/hunter chasers out in the next few weeks. The 5.20 at Newton Abbot has a couple of horses in Bubble O'Clock and Cheltenham De Vaige. Both are running off 100 and although neither look really thrown in I do think there is scope for both being capable of winning off their marks. Bubble O'Clock has been nibbled in the betting already which doesn't surprise me. He ran in the 2m race at Stratford on hunter chase night and usually that race isn't overly strong, but last year's race is a strong piece of form. He finished a staying on 4th that night and the 3 horses who finished directly behind him have all won handicaps since. He ran twice in the early weeks of the pointing season finishing 3rd and then falling last time, but it is clear he doesn't see out 3m and he ran well in both. This trip on quick ground looks ideal for him and if he's fit then he is capable of winning this.

Cheltenham De Vaige was due to run on that Stratford card as well, but he bolted on the way to the start and had to be withdrawn. He is likely to be taken down to the start early as he usually is because he can be very headstrong. I think he is the type that will improve for being ridden by a pro jockey given is quirks. He pulled up on his only start in 2020, but I suspect the ground was plenty soft enough for him that day and he is better than that. He has a slightly higher pointing mark than Bubble O'Clock. My main dangers would be Duc Kauto who had useful form last season and Oxwich Bay who finds it hard to win, but usually goes close. He ran last week at Southwell, but ran out.

I have split my stakes on both, but if pushed I would favour Bubble O'Clock as that Stratford run makes him look capable of winning off this mark.

Bubble O'Clock @ 7/1 with Betfair

Cheltenham De Vaige @ 9/2 with Bet365

[Old codger]

Good morning all

My next selection

715 Leicester win o'clock 2pts win 11/8 bog hills skybet

 Another one I expect to win at a higher level than this.

Took his time but got there cleverly in the end. Will count as 11/10 in view of rule 4

Bank 113.95 from 100 W11 L8

Edited July 7, 2020 by Old codger

[justanotherpunter]

Todays handicaps -

Pontefract       12.45    Regal Mirage                18/1ew
Pontefract       12.45    Aiya                                 7/1ew
Pontefract         1.50    Queens Order               18/1ew
Pontefract         2.20    Casement                        9/1ew
Pontefract         2.20    Destroyer                       11/2ew
Pontefract         2.50    Angel’s Whisper               5/4
Pontefract         3.55    Golden Apollo                  4/1ew
Pontefract         4.30    Avenue Of Stars               5/1ew
Pontefract         4.30    Round The Island             7/2
Roscommon     3.00    Ally Cay                           11/2ew
Newton Abott    4.20    Shiroccan Roll                10/1ew
Newton Abott    4.20    Global Tour                       4/1ew
Newton Abott    4.50    Lord Bryan                      11/2ew
Newton Abott    4.50    Teaser                             11/1ew
Newton Abott    5.20    Gentleman Moore           11/1ew
Killarney            7.30    Island Master                  12/1ew
Killarney            7.30    Thatbeatsbanagher        12/1ew
Leicester           5.10    Clever Candy                    5/2
Leicester           6.45    Geetanjali                       18/1ew
Leicester           8.15    Alba Del Sole                    2/1
Leicester           8.15    Teepee Time                   11/2ew

[The Equaliser]

Summerghand won so - £20 so far on lay bets

6.15 Leic Pilot Wings £21.10 @ 4.7 = £78.10 liability (PL tip as well, but EW win) Unmatched at 4.8 right now. two non runners (30% reduction factor)
8.15 Leic Mykindofsunshine £21.10 @ 3.55 (matched) = £53.80 liability

In hindsight it was wrong of me to lay a strong favourite in a class 3 race.  My two class 6 horses were well beaten so some good compensation.  Therefore -£20 + £20 + £20 = a £20 profit on the day.

B/Fwd = £34.30 + £20 = £54.30 

I am beginning to enjoy this.  Hopefully I will get better at finding the adverse factors that will influence the anticipated poor running of my "Lay" horses.

 

Edited July 7, 2020 by The Equaliser
Results update

[justanotherpunter]

Better day today recovered most of yesterdays losses -

Pontefract       12.45    Regal Mirage              18/1ew---------lost
Pontefract       12.45    Aiya                               7/1ew---------lost
Pontefract         1.50    Queens Order             18/1ew---------lost
Pontefract         2.20    Casement                     9/1ew---------lost
Pontefract         2.20    Destroyer                     11/2ew---------n/r
Pontefract         2.50    Angel’s Whisper             5/4-----------1st 10/11 fav
Pontefract         3.55    Golden Apollo                4/1ew---------lost
Pontefract         4.30    Avenue Of Stars            5/1ew---------1st 7/2 jt fav
Pontefract         4.30    Round The Island           7/2-----------2nd 11/2
Roscommon     3.00    Ally Cay                        11/2ew---------4th 11/2
Newton Abott    4.20    Shiroccan Roll             10/1ew---------1st 4/1
Newton Abott    4.20    Global Tour                    4/1ew---------lost
Newton Abott    4.50    Lord Bryan                   11/2ew---------lost
Newton Abott    4.50    Teaser                          11/1ew---------lost
Newton Abott    5.20    Gentleman Moore        11/1ew---------lost
Killarney            7.30    Island Master               12/1ew---------lost
Killarney            7.30    Thatbeatsbanagher     12/1ew---------1st 4/1
Leicester           5.10    Clever Candy                  5/2------------lost
Leicester           6.45    Geetanjali                     18/1ew---------n/r
Leicester           8.15    Alba Del Sole                  2/1------------1st 9/4 fav
Leicester           8.15    Teepee Time                 11/2ew---------lost