Racing Chat - Sunday July 5th

[BillyHills]

5 meetings on Sunday

Group 1 action at Sandown!
San 335 Dierdre EW 25/1 

Lots of EW bets tomorrow

115 S: Macho Pride 11/1 betvic
150 S: Dakota Gold 8/1 bet365
240 H: Spirit Of Appin 10/1 bet365
300 S: Qaysar 10/1 bet365
315 H: Spanish Archer 16/1 bet365
350 H: Concierge 8/1 bet365
430 D: Mr Strutter 14/1 bet365
535 D: Sashenka 12/1 bet365

 

[Darran]

Some cracking jumping action at Warrnambool in the early hours of the morning with the first 6 races on the card over obstacles. Races 4 and 6 are the feature contests on the card and both look competitive. Not sure it will be a full house like at Casterton last week, but I will give it a go.

Race 1 (2.35am)

As has become the norm the maiden hurdle has divided. Da Deputy, Hoof Hustler and Little Phoenix all have claims, but I am taking a couple against the field. American In Paris has the best form for me. He had trialled well going into his hurdling debut at Ballarat last month and the winner was given a very good ride from the front (somewhat similar to the Derby this afternoon) and he wasn't able to make the ground up in testing conditions. 

Sadly we are down to 7 runners, but I am still going to put Yulong Emperor up e/w as he is over priced at double figure odds. His last two runs have been in stronger contests than this. He was 2nd to Hokkaido Miss and then 4th to Ventura Storm with Stanley in 2nd who won last week. He shouldn't be double figures to land this.

American In Paris @ 13/8 with Betfred

Yulong Emperor e/w @ 12/1 with Betfred

Race 2 (3.15am)

From the same race I have just mentioned Hierarchical was 3rd and I am really keen on him to win this. In his last 3 hurdle starts he has finished 2nd twice and then that 3rd last time. All 3 pieces of form are strong and this looks the perfect race for him to finally lose the maiden tag over hurdles. He has the beating of the other previous hurdle runners and those who are making their debuts are going to have to be pretty good to beat him.

Hierarchical @ 15/8 with Betfred

Race 3 (3.55am)

Good race this. Britannicus got a deserved win last week, but I don't think he wants a Heavy 10 so he is crossed off the shortlist. Bee Tee Junior is the unknown having only run twice over hurdles in New Zealand. He's been racing on the flat to get him fit, but this is a hot race. Stanley got a deserved win last week and is clearly progressive, but he has 5L to make up on San Remo and I am not sure he can. Longclaw was a good 2nd last time to a good horse over course and distance last time on this ground. He is the last one I struck off my shortlist. The two I am going with are Hokkaido Miss and San Remo. I was really impressed with the former last time and as mentioned above she beat Yulong Emperor by 12L. That was a top hurdles debut. On the same card San Remo beat Hierarchical and had Stanley back in 3rd again very good form. Since then he has run as well as could be expected in a strong race at Flemington to keep him ticking over. He looks a big price in my view.

Hokkaido Miss @ 23/10 with Bet365

San Remo @ 13/2 with Betfred

Race 4 (4.35am)

It's a shame we have a few non-runners in the Kevin Lafferty because it looked a really strong race. It's still a good contest, but I think it is between the top two in the market. Killarney Kid won this race impressively last year off 129 and he's only gone up to 133. He's had two decent runs on the flat at Flemington and plenty of hurdle trials to get him fit, but I just wonder if a lack of match practice jumping in a race puts things in Gobstopper's favour. He's been superb this prep and has already won 2 big hurdle races. Obviously he is going up in the weights, but the fact he was a good 2nd on the flat last time proves he is still in flying form and i take him to win another major prize.

Gobstopper @ 11/8 with Betfred

Race 5 (5.15am)

Flying Agent should have beaten Michelin last time, but even so that was still a top effort and I just can't see him losing this. He has the beating of his main rivals here on that form. He's deservedly odds on so I am not going to put him up although the 5/6 on offer is tempting I must admit. I would be surprised if he doesn't win.

Race 6 (5.55am)

The Thackeray is the big chase on the card and the market has Bit Of A Lad, Georgethefifth and Michelin very close together although none of them will be the pick. Georgethefifth clearly loves it over course and distance and he has done it very easily on both times he has been here, but they were weak races and this is a very different test, but he is respected for sure. Michelin is the up and comer although as I mention above I thought he just got first run when beating Flying Agent last time and I think Flying Agent would reverse form should they run against each other again. Bit Of A Lad landed the Australian Steeple last time and beat Shamal by 8L. Stritctly speaking Shamal isn't weighted to reverse form, but I think he can and I am amazed Shamal is such a big price. He won for us last week and although he only just got up he was carrying a big weight and it was a good performance. Obviously he is carrying a big weight again in a stronger race, but I think he will come on for it and I would imagine backing up in this was always the plan. He looked in need of the race when 2nd at Sandown as I thought he travelled like the winner and now he is 3rd up I think he can reverse form. The ground won't be an issue and he shouldn't be as big as 6/1.

Shamal @ 6/1 with everyone bar Bet365

[calva decoy]

I usually follow Varian at Donny but he's got 5 running tomorrow.

J.Murtagh has been flying in Ireland he's got 6 at Cork tomorrow & 2 at Fairyhouse too many to choose from.

Canny Andre Fabre sends 1 over 2 Sandown ?.

And it's nearly end of season in Hong Kong , lie in tomorrow until 6.45 ( Belmont finishes at off at ( allegedly 11.51 Saturday night  ) & then 3 at Sha Tin early Sunday.

700- Super Lucky 16/1 betfair each way

1010- Relentless Me 10/1 betfair each way

1045- Golden Dash 25/1 betfair each way

A blank day with the 3 above at Sha Tin , glad I've not backed anything in the UK with the winds atm , may be some more weird results , good luck to all if you've had a punt ?

Edited July 5, 2020 by calva decoy
Results update

[The Equaliser]

Today's Trixie and win bets

12.30 Hd Bungee Jump £1 at 9/2
1.50 San Liberty Beach £2 at 2/1
3.00 San Dark vision £1 at 4/1

One £1 win Trixie = £4 v £141.50

Total stakes = £8.00

 

No Lay bets today.  I could only find one class 6 race with 20 runners and didn't fancy picking 3 runners from one race

 

 

[Trotter]

French Derby today at Chantilly

Victor Ludorum is the clear favourite after winning the French 2000 Gns but I'm going to pick one that is just about an EW price

J-C Rouget has won 3 of the last 4 'Jockey-Clubs' so he knows what it takes and he has an unbeaten, lightly raced one in today who jumps up big time in class. He's run 3 times, twice in the provinces and in a small conditions race at St Cloud. 

The Rouget yard has hit form with 9 winners from 15 runners in the last two weeks

I guess if you back him you're basically backing the trainer to know what he's got with an unproven horse at this level

Chantilly 2.10 - Port Guillaume - EW at 10/1 bet365

[black rabbit]

Indianapolis  1/2 pt win @ 20/1 betfair  3 15 hay 

Aquited  1/2 pt win @ 9/1   betfair   3 00 san

 

P/L  account + 121.75 pts

[Tedthewolf]

3,15 hay-  SCARLET DRAGON 16/1 1/4 4P- HASANABAD 66/1 1/5 5P

4.30 don- DARK DEVIL 20/1 e/w 1/4 4P- LADY DAUPHIN 30/1 e/w 1/5 5P

[justanotherpunter]

Todays handicaps -

Haydock            2.05    Duke Of Condicote        11/2ew
Haydock            3.50    Lincoln Park                    6/1ew
Haydock            3.50    Cold Stare                     15/2ew
Doncaster         4.00    Camacho Chief                5/2
Doncaster         5.35    Bollin Joan                     11/1ew
Doncaster         5.35    Stonofic                          11/1ew
Fairyhouse        6.00    Fit For Function               7/1ew
Cork                  5.45    The Names Jock            13/2ew

[Trotter]

Gosden wins the French Derby with Mishriff 7/1

[justanotherpunter]

Almost broke even -

Haydock            2.05    Duke Of Condicote    11/2ew--------lost
Haydock            3.50    Lincoln Park                 6/1ew-------3rd 4/1
Haydock            3.50    Cold Stare                  15/2ew-------2nd 12/1
Doncaster         4.00    Camacho Chief             5/2----------1st 4/1
Doncaster         5.35    Bollin Joan                  11/1ew--------lost
Doncaster         5.35    Stonofic                      11/1ew--------lost
Fairyhouse        6.00    Fit For Function           7/1ew--------lost
Cork                  5.45    The Names Jock        13/2ew--------lost

[The Equaliser]

9 hours ago, The Equaliser said:

Today's Trixie and win bets

12.30 Hd Bungee Jump £1 at 9/2
1.50 San Liberty Beach £2 at 2/1
3.00 San Dark vision £1 at 4/1

One £1 win Trixie = £4 v £141.50

Total stakes = £8.00

 

No Lay bets today.  I could only find one class 6 race with 20 runners and didn't fancy picking 3 runners from one race

 

 

Two seconds meant a blank day for me.  Therefore Singles balance C/Fwd £385.05 (Bank £400) and Multiples balance C/Fwd £652.04 (Bank £800)

I found it a bit annoying that just before the Coral Eclipse we find out from John Gosden that he was worried about Enabled running over 10 furlongs against Ghaiyath.  I hope that not too many people lost too much money on it.