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L1 Predictions > Jul 3rd - 6th

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Portsmouth vs Oxford

The League One play-off semi-final first legs kick off tonight and the first game up is the 5:30pm BST start between Portsmouth and Oxford at Fratton Park. The League One and League Two seasons were curtailed early with final positions decided on a points-per-game basis. That left Peterborough as one of the teams to miss out unfortunately. Still, the show goes on!

Portsmouth finished in 5th place with a point-per-game average of 1.71. That left them 0.02 inside the play-offs. That's how close it was. Kenny Jackett will be delighted that his side have reached the play-offs for a second consecutive season. Pompey might also be slightly relieved the season was cancelled because they'd only won 3 of their previous 7 league games before lockdown. However, they come into this game boasting the best home form in the division with 12 wins and 6 draws from their 18 league games played at home this season.

Oxford ended up just one place above their opponents for this game but they also finished with a points-per-game average of 1.71. The differing factor was goal difference. Karl Robinson has exceeded expectations with The U's with the FA Cup run and added bonus for the season. United might feel slightly aggrieved that the season finished early with the team having won their previous 5 straight league games before the suspension. They were only 2 points off automatic promotion at the time. It's also bad news that they come into this game having won just 3 of their last 8 away games.

The statistics for this game all point towards a home win. The ELO ratings give reason to dither before making that call but this is a game between a Portsmouth side that haven't been beaten on their home patch all season and an Oxford side that have faltered repeatedly on the road. I do feel that without the home crowd behind them that Pompey might not be as effective on their own turf as they could be. United could well sense this and I think the odds of a draw are very appetising.

Draw @ 3.20 with Betway

BTTS @ 2.05 with William Hill

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Fleetwood vs Wycombe

The second match in the League One play-off semi-final first legs is coming up at 7:30pm BST when Fleetwood play Wycombe at Highbury Stadium. These two sides will be relishing the chance to make the most of the season ending earlier with the home team just squeaking in the final spot of the play-offs and the away side leapfrogging teams above them due to their superior points-per-game.

Fleetwood ended up in 6th place in the table based on points-per-game but only just got in ahead of Peterborough by 0.02 points-per-game. Joey Barton has defied the odds to get his team into the play-offs and his team is on an unbeaten run of 12 league games. Even though they've only managed 1 win from their last 4 league matches. A key factor in the Fishermen's decent run at home before the suspension for covid-19 was their defensive record at home with the team keeping three clean sheets in their last 5 home league matches.

Wycombe were the side that benefited the most from the use of points-per-game. Gareth Ainsworth's side were 8th in the table when the suspension set in but due to their game in hand actually shot up to 3rd place to become the highest ranked side in the play-offs due to points-per-game. The Chairboys endured an inconsistent end to their season with 3 wins and 3 defeats from their final 6 league matches. Their away form had become a big concern though with just 1 win from their final 8 away league games including losing 6 of the last 7 of those games.

It feels as those this match is a clash of two young up-and-coming managers with both Barton and Ainsworth earning justified plaudits for their management styles. The winner of this tie will have a great chance to boost their reputation within the game and it kind of feels like Barton's Fleetwood team have the edge. Wycombe have had a very positive season but their away form towards the latter stages really held them back. I think it will do so again here and can't see anything other than a home win.

Fleetwood to Win @ 2.10 with Ladbrokes

BTTS No @ 1.67 with BetVictor

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  • StevieDay1983 changed the title to L1 Predictions > Jul 3rd - 6th

I think first Game today will be very close - i choose here a Draw in Oxford-Portsmouth Game and everything can happen in Extra Time.

Other Game i see a very open Game. Didn´t think that Fleetwood will take to the Final but they must be attack if they want a early goal. So i see Wycombe to become some counter Chances and for me Wycombe Over 1.5 Goals is a very good Bet.

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Oxford vs Portsmouth

The first of the League One play-off semi-final second legs up this week is between Oxford and Portsmouth in a 5pm BST kick-off at the Kassam Stadium. These two sides come into this game with everything to play for after the first leg ended in a 1-1 draw at Fratton Park. Who will seal the aggregate win to progress to the play-off final with a chance of earning promotion to the Championship.

Oxford will be pleased that they managed to hold their opponents to a draw in the first leg. It was a game that had seen the odds stacked against them due to Portsmouth's impressive unbeaten home record in the league. It was also looking quite grim when Ronan Curtis had given Pompey the lead on 32 minutes. Fortunately, the U's hit back quickly with Marcus Browne bagging the equaliser just before half-time. The draw extended Karl Robinson's men's unbeaten run to 6 matches. It is now United's tie to lose with home advantage.

Portsmouth know they will need to lay to rest the ghost of their bang average away record this season to progress to the final. Kenny Jackett's side have only won 5 of their 17 league matches on the road this season. It's now also 3 games without a win for Pompey as their form is faltering at the wrong time. The one main hope for Portsmouth is that the lack of a home crowd at the Kassam Stadium will enable them to put their away day woes behind them.

I have to agree with @Neubs here. I can't see a lot separating these two teams. Nothing could in the first leg and I think this second leg could be even tighter. I think it's worth backing on this game going all the way to penalties. I know that the stats suggest both teams scoring isn't realistic but I feel we could see a score draw on a nervy night in Oxfordshire.

Draw @ 3.10 with Sportingbet

BTTS @ 2.00 with Betfair

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Wycombe vs Fleetwood

The second League One play-off semi-final second leg coming up tonight is at 7:30pm BST when Wycombe play Fleetwood at Adams Park. It's not looking good for the away side here as they come into this game against their hosts suffering a 4-1 deficit. You could argue it'll take a miracle for this tie to be turned around but if there's one sport that can produce such a miracle it's football!

Wycombe may well hold a three-goal lead and Gareth Ainsworth will certainly be saying all the right things to keep his players' heads on the ground but surely the players, staff, and fans will be feeling that they have one foot in the play-off final. Three goals in the opening 6 minutes saw the Chairboys take a 2-1 lead before Fleetwood were reduced to 10-men with Lewis Coyle's sending off. It was then plain sailing for Wycombe as they went on to score two more goals and put the tie seemingly beyond their hosts. They'll come into this game feeling they can not only see the tie off but win on the night having only lost 2 of their 18 home league games this season.

Fleetwood will be bitterly disappointed that they gave such a poor account of themselves in the first leg. It may or may not be seen as a fair assessment that it was anticipated a Joey Barton-managed side would lose their discipline in a time of intense pressure. I'm not really sure how they can approach this game with an aim to pull this tie back without leaving themselves heavily exposed at the back. The defeat last week ended an unbeaten run in the league of 12 games. How can they fight back from that?

Once again, I'm with @Neubs on his theory that it'll be an open game as Fleetwood adopt a "sh!t or bust" attitude. I think Wycombe will be happy to sit back and counter-attack their opponents picking them off. I reckon not only will Wycombe prevail as winners of this tie but I think they'll win the game on the night as well. This could be a hard lesson for Barton to learn early into his management career.

Wycombe to Win @ 2.88 with Betway

BTTS @ 1.95 with Bet365

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