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Racing Chat - Thursday July 2nd


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Morning All

Day four of my tipping adventure, better day yesterday. I'm using two sources Racing Post as Trotter's suggestion and Horse Race Ratings. If I decide to change sources I'll say but thought it would be best to be clear.  

Bellewstown 14:00 - Ingleby Mackenzie - 0.5 Points Win

Bath 14:10 - Awsaaf - 1 Point Win

Bellewstown 16:00 - Mokhalad - 1 Point Win

Bellewstown 16:30 - Jaime Sommers (IRE) - 0.5 Points Win

Sligo 18:10 - Jan Wellens - 1 Point Win

Wolverhampton 18:30  - The Fitzpiers Lion (IRE) - 0.5 Points Win

Wolverhampton 19:30 - Wrath Of Hector - 3 Point

Good luck

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53 minutes ago, stevelc said:

Morning All

Day four of my tipping adventure, better day yesterday. I'm using two sources Racing Post as Trotter's suggestion and Horse Race Ratings. If I decide to change sources I'll say but thought it would be best to be clear.  

Bellewstown 14:00 - Ingleby Mackenzie - 0.5 Points Win

Bath 14:10 - Awsaaf - 1 Point Win

Bellewstown 16:00 - Mokhalad - 1 Point Win

Bellewstown 16:30 - Jaime Sommers (IRE) - 0.5 Points Win

Sligo 18:10 - Jan Wellens - 1 Point Win

Wolverhampton 18:30  - The Fitzpiers Lion (IRE) - 0.5 Points Win

Wolverhampton 19:30 - Wrath Of Hector - 3 Point

Good luck

Yes, a better day for you yesterday.  Well done.  May I suggest that you keep a running tally of stakes and profit/loss.

Also it may be a good idea for you to log on to the ATR (At The Races) website as you may get a balanced view between the RP and ATR.  You will also find TImeform top 3 selections and those rated with 5 stars and below to compare with your HRR.

Just a thought.

 

 

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Posted (edited)

Poor racing on offer today.  I could only find three class 4 races in the UK.

Just a couple of selections today and no multiples.  Roll on the Derby meeting

3.40 Bath Union Rose £1 win at 4/1 (it seems to me to be worth taking a chance that this one will beat Real Estate as the horse likes Bath and is 3lbs better off anyway).

5.0 Wolv Just That Lord 50p win at 12/1

I do think that Motoamayiz stands a good chance in the 4.15 Bath.  However, I don't back short priced horses.  My minimum price is 2/1 but sometimes I accept a minimum of 7/4 in the hope that the price will drift a little to 2/1+ 

Both win bets lost today.

Loss of £1.50 hence singles balance C/Fwd = £374.63 (Bank £400)

Multiples balance remains the same at £661.04 (Bank £800)

 

 

 

Edited by The Equaliser
result update
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This must be the worst day's racing since the resumption !

Going through the cards last night I couldn't find any race to bother spend time on

Which raises the question ...... should it really matter what the level of the race is ?

I mean there's a winner of every race and if you're happy with your methods of selection should they be just as valid for a class 6 handicap as for the Derby ?

 

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Todays handicaps - later races to follow -

Catterick          1.20    Lucky Beggar               7/1ew
Catterick          1.50    Our Dave                      5/2
Catterick          2.20    The Big House             4/1ew
Catterick          2.20    Bumbledon                 14/1ew
Catterick          2.50    Question Of Faith       25/1ew
Bellewstown    2.30    Aasleagh Fawn             9/4
Bellewstown    4.00    Mokhalad                      6/1ew
Bath                2.10    Awsaaf                           5/4
Bath                2.10    Toolatetodelegate          8/1ew
Bath                3.10    Holdenhurst                 12/1ew
Bath                3.10    Devils Roc                     5/2
Bath                3.40    Michael’s Choice         15/2ew
Bath                3.40    Union Rose                   4/1ew
Bath                4.15    Motamayiz                     6/5
Bath                5.20    Magic Shuffle               12/1ew
Bath                5.50    General Brook              15/2ew
Bath                5.50    Grams And Ounces      33/1ew

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and the later handicaps -

Sligo                     5.10    Powersville                  11/4
Sligo                     6.45    Take A Turn                  9/2ew
Sligo                     6.45    Powersbomb              25/1ew
Wolverhampton    5.00    Tabaahy                       5/1ew
Wolverhampton    5.00    The Daley Express    20/1ew
Wolverhampton    7.00    Beepeecee                  7/1ew
Wolverhampton    7.00    Steelriver                   11/2ew
Wolverhampton    8.30    Seaforth                      9/2ew
Wolverhampton    8.30    Voice Of A Leader     25/1ew
Wolverhampton    8.30    Pike Corner Cross     16/1ew

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2 hours ago, Trotter said:

This must be the worst day's racing since the resumption !

Going through the cards last night I couldn't find any race to bother spend time on

Which raises the question ...... should it really matter what the level of the race is ?

I mean there's a winner of every race and if you're happy with your methods of selection should they be just as valid for a class 6 handicap as for the Derby ?

 

I was just saying that I see so many favs turned over that form don’t mean much what ever grade like you say there will a winner just got to find it . 

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4 hours ago, Trotter said:

This must be the worst day's racing since the resumption !

Going through the cards last night I couldn't find any race to bother spend time on

Which raises the question ...... should it really matter what the level of the race is ?

I mean there's a winner of every race and if you're happy with your methods of selection should they be just as valid for a class 6 handicap as for the Derby ?

 

Well @Trotter I think it does matter.  Whilst I appreciate that favourites get turned over in the higher class races it is worthwhile to put money on the horses that are the most reliable and consistent in those type of races.  The reason why favourites get beat in the higher class races is that these races are usually very competitive; all trainers want to impress their owners by winning big prize money. It is then up to us as astute punters who have the recent and past form at our disposal to assess what is the best form to work with in the prevalent race conditions.  Lower class animals are just not as consistent as the their higher grade counter parts.

In an effort to prove that this is the case, in addition to my win/multiple bets, I am going to start a new section in Racing Chat for "Lay" bets on animals in the lowest class races.  Ideally these will be Class 6/7 races handicap races (minimum = class5).  I will work through racecards from the shortest priced forecast favourites up to a price not exceeding 10.0 (i.e.9/1).  I have to have three reasons to oppose a horse which will be given.  In order to make this exciting I will work towards making £60 per day in theory; however in reality I will placing £2.11 on each lay bet as I don't like to paper trade.

Even if I'm proved wrong I know I won't lose much but I feel it will be worthwhile if it is successful so that punters who hate to back low class animals to win will find that the alternative in laying them can be worthwhile.

 

 

 

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6 hours ago, The Equaliser said:

Well @Trotter I think it does matter.  Whilst I appreciate that favourites get turned over in the higher class races it is worthwhile to put money on the horses that are the most reliable and consistent in those type of races.  The reason why favourites get beat in the higher class races is that these races are usually very competitive; all trainers want to impress their owners by winning big prize money. It is then up to us as astute punters who have the recent and past form at our disposal to assess what is the best form to work with in the prevalent race conditions.  Lower class animals are just not as consistent as the their higher grade counter parts.

In an effort to prove that this is the case, in addition to my win/multiple bets, I am going to start a new section in Racing Chat for "Lay" bets on animals in the lowest class races.  Ideally these will be Class 6/7 races handicap races (minimum = class5).  I will work through racecards from the shortest priced forecast favourites up to a price not exceeding 10.0 (i.e.9/1).  I have to have three reasons to oppose a horse which will be given.  In order to make this exciting I will work towards making £60 per day in theory; however in reality I will placing £2.11 on each lay bet as I don't like to paper trade.

Even if I'm proved wrong I know I won't lose much but I feel it will be worthwhile if it is successful so that punters who hate to back low class animals to win will find that the alternative in laying them can be worthwhile.

 

 

 

If you are backing favourites then you are better sticking to class 1 races rather than class 6 races. At BSP over the last 5 years on the flat you would have made a ROI of 9% on class 1 races and a loss of 3% on class 6/7 races.

I wouldn't restrict my lay bets to handicap bets because the loss has been higher for non-handicap class 6/7 races at 9%, albeit there are more handicaps than handicaps.

Interestingly a profit would have been made on the all weather courses so it may be wise to exclude these.

Also horses that finished 1st, 2nd or 3rd last time performed particularly badly.

Good luck, if these past trends continue you should be able to make good profits with these lay selections, as always with horse racing you have to hope the trends continue, they often don't unfortunately.

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8 hours ago, MCLARKE said:

If you are backing favourites then you are better sticking to class 1 races rather than class 6 races. At BSP over the last 5 years on the flat you would have made a ROI of 9% on class 1 races and a loss of 3% on class 6/7 races.

I wouldn't restrict my lay bets to handicap bets because the loss has been higher for non-handicap class 6/7 races at 9%, albeit there are more handicaps than handicaps.

Interestingly a profit would have been made on the all weather courses so it may be wise to exclude these.

Also horses that finished 1st, 2nd or 3rd last time performed particularly badly.

Good luck, if these past trends continue you should be able to make good profits with these lay selections, as always with horse racing you have to hope the trends continue, they often don't unfortunately.

Very many thanks for your informed advice; don't know where you get the stats from but they will be very useful for me. 

I don't think I can exclude All Weather venues, however, I will now approach these with extra caution.

I hope that you are keeping well?  I haven't seen you post up anything since resumption from lock down.  I hope that you will begin posting up again soon

 

 

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Well another profitable day with 6 winners and a couple of places - who cares about quality horses as there is a winner for every race - 😀

Catterick    1.20    Lucky Beggar                     7/1ew---------3rd 15/2
Catterick    1.50    Our Dave                             5/2-----------1st 5/2 fav 😀
Catterick    2.20    The Big House                   4/1ew---------1st 3/1 fav 😀
Catterick    2.20    Bumbledon                       14/1ew---------lost
Catterick    2.50    Question Of Faith             25/1ew---------lost
Bellewstown    2.30    Aasleagh Fawn              9/4------------lost
Bellewstown    4.00    Mokhalad                      6/1ew---------lost
Bath            2.10    Awsaaf                                5/4-----------lost
Bath            2.10    Toolatetodelegate              8/1ew---------lost
Bath            3.10    Holdenhurst                     12/1ew---------lost
Bath            3.10    Devils Roc                           5/2-----------lost
Bath            3.40    Michael’s Choice              15/2ew--------1st 10/1 😀
Bath            3.40    Union Rose                         4/1ew--------lost
Bath            4.15    Motamayiz                            6/5----------1st 5/6 fav 😀
Bath            5.20    Magic Shuffle                     12/1ew--------1st 8/1 😀
Bath            5.50    General Brook                   15/2ew--------2nd 4/1
Bath            5.50    Grams And Ounces           33/1ew--------lost
Sligo            5.10    Powersville                          11/4----------1st 7/4 fav 😀
Sligo            6.45    Take A Turn                         9/2ew--------3rd 9/2
Sligo            6.45    Powersbomb                      25/1ew--------lost
Wolverhampton    5.00    Tabaahy                      5/1ew--------lost
Wolverhampton    5.00    The Daley Express    20/1ew--------lost
Wolverhampton    7.00    Beepeecee                  7/1ew--------lost
Wolverhampton    7.00    Steelriver                   11/2ew--------lost
Wolverhampton    8.30    Seaforth                      9/2ew--------lost
Wolverhampton    8.30    Voice Of A Leader    25/1ew--------lost
Wolverhampton    8.30    Pike Corner Cross    16/1ew--------lost

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15 hours ago, The Equaliser said:

Very many thanks for your informed advice; don't know where you get the stats from but they will be very useful for me. 

I don't think I can exclude All Weather venues, however, I will now approach these with extra caution.

I hope that you are keeping well?  I haven't seen you post up anything since resumption from lock down.  I hope that you will begin posting up again soon

 

 

I'm good ta, haven't bet much since the lockdown but form hopefully settled down a bit and made a bit of money so far in July so might start putting up a £20 selection each day.

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