NEW LAY STRATEGY APPROPRIATE STAKING

[benfikista]

Hi guys, although I´m a common reader of the forum this is my first post.

Actually I am humbly asking for suggestions / help:

So, I have developed a lay system whose accuracy rate is around 65%. Now the lay odds are, on average, 2.92

This system, accuracy rate and lay odds are studied taking into account ALL major european leagues from the 2010 season up to 2019.

My problem is as follow:

I want to bet using an increasing stake plan, in order to recoup losses + 10€, which will be my starting stake. I would like someone to help me out with maths here, because I have no idea as to the starting bank needed to cover losses if I get a 7 match loosing streak (which never happened in the past 10 seasons in all of Major European Leagues. As a matter of fact, the maximum loss streak of the selections is 5 losses in a row.

Any help, thoughts or suggestions guys ?

Thanks a lot of your time

 

[Smiles Tennis]

How many picks has it pulled up in that time?

It also depends how much of your bank you are prepared to lose if you hit 7 losses? Are you just going to take the loss after 7 losses? 

[froment]

On 7/1/2020 at 5:39 PM, benfikista said:

So, I have developed a lay system whose accuracy rate is around 65%. Now the lay odds are, on average, 2.92

 

Hi, Benfika guy, nice to see you decided to post!

As for your question, I'm a bit late for the show, but I see it's not busy, so let me try anyway. At lay odds of 2.92, and asuming commission of 5%, you need strike rate, or accuracy as you call it, of 66.9% to break even.

Hence, if you get only 65% of your picks correct, it's a losing system, and I believe that no staking system in the world can turn a losing system into a winning one. That is, not counting so-called Parrondo paradox, but I doubt your strategy relies onto that.

It especially applies to "chasing loses", which your proposed staking system basically is. If you increase stakes after a loss to recoup accumulated losses is a sure way to poor house, please don't do it. If you're not familiar with pitfalls of Martingale staking system, google it, and you will find extensive resources.

My advice is to try to refine your strategy to increase accuracy (or decrease lay odds), and once your accuracy is above break even limit, simple staking systems will do - fixed stake (which would be fixed liability in the case of laying), fixed profit or fixed bank percentage will do its work quite well.

[agourbet]

With odds of 2.92 on average and a success rate of 65%, if we do not include the commission(lets say that you do not bet on exchange) you will basically break even. You need to find an other strategy or refine your strategy. As froment said above, please do not change your staking plan in order to get back your losses. You will never get good results with that.