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Racing Chat - Tuesday June 30th


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Last day of an interesting month.

Ending with a nightmare meeting at Chepstow, never seen such mediocre stuff.

I think its gone ok but a little surprised at some of the field sizes, i honestly though every race would be filled up, turned out there has been plenty of chances for everyone. Form will begin to sort itself out now and as long as the weather plays fair we should have a fair crack at the whip in July.

EW Bets for tomorrow

545 Le: Krazy Paving 6/1 bet365
615 Le: Deputy Star 6/1 bet365
900 Ch: Be Fair 8/1 bet365

:ok

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All aged handicap selections for Tuesday ..... last day of the trial & lots of races with 4 meetings

I'll have a think about something else for next month

Donc

4.30 - Champagne Terri 4/1 and Encryption 14/1

Muss

2.45 - The Defiant 4/1 and Gowanbuster 5/1
4.15 - Lady Scatterley 3/1 and Vampish 11/4
5.15 - Tarnhelm 7/2

Leic

6.15 - Deconso 7/1 and Freedom and Wheat 4/1
7.45 - Telekinetic 11/2 and Arlecchinos Arc 10/1
8.15 - Becky Sharp 11/2 and Homing Star 14/1

Chep

8.30 - Cafe Sydney 7/2 and Lauberhorn Rocket 7/1
9.00 - Master Grey 16/1

prices bet365 bog

 

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Morning All

Day two of my tipping adventure, I'm using two sources Racing Post as Trotter's suggestion and Horse Race Ratings as the other. If I decide to change sources I'll say but thought it would be best to be clear.  
 

Today I’m going with

Musselburgh 15:45 - Moonlighting - 1 Point Win

Chepstow 17:30 - Lorna Cole (IRE) - 1 Point Win

Good luck

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Try a few in France later A Crassus and A Nicole doing well

aix-les-bains

3.55 kellerdam 40/1 all or nothing 10/1

4.30 marriage mystique 20/1 mark nova 20/1

5.05 Zala chope 13/2 

5.45 mearas style 7/1 off galavanting 10/1

6.15 gatee 8/1 

6.45 moni 14/1 armorial 18/1 

7-15 lilou reconvene 6/1 

7.45 vim 12/1 sandoside 11/2

all bets 25p e/w bet365 

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I nearly didn't bother with such low class racing today.  Anyway, decided to have a go as its the last day of the month

Today's Trixie:

1.30 Don Mr Wagyu £2 win at 5/2
2.00 Don Ice Lord £1 win at 4/1
2.45 Muss Desert Ace £2 win at 3/1
£1 win Trixie = £4 v £121.50

Other win bets:

2.00 Don Flying Pursuit 50p Win at 25/1
2.45 Muss Glenifer £1 win at 9/1
3.00 Don Notforalongtime 50p at 9/1 ( I think the price will drift)

£7.00 staked on win bets

£4 00 on Multiples

= £11 staked in total

As they used to say in Hill Street Blues:  " Be careful out there"

 

 

 

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Todays selections -

Doncaster            1.30    Big Lachie                       6/1ew
Doncaster            1.30    Sheepscar Lad              12/1ew
Doncaster            2.00    Princess Power             14/1ew
Doncaster            2.00    Flying Pursuit                 25/1ew
Doncaster            2.00    Ice Lord                          4/1ew
Musselburgh        1.15    How Bizzare                   5/1ew
Musselburgh        1.15    Bibbidibobbidiboo           9/1ew
Musselburgh        2.45    Desert Ace                      3/1
Musselburgh        2.45    Bashiba                         15/2ew
Musselburgh        3.15    Maulesden May             14/1ew
Musselburgh        3.15    Corton Lad                     18/1ew
Musselburgh        4.15    Lagenda                           7/1ew
Musselburgh        4.15    Lucky Violet                   14/1ew
Leicester              5.15    Teepee Time                    6/1ew
Leicester              5.45    Dreamboat Annie             9/1ew
Leicester              6.45    Chetan                              2/1
Leicester              6.45    Lippy Lady                     25/1ew
Leicester              7.15    Twittering                         9/1ew
Leicester              8.15    Dolphin Village              11/1ew
Leicester              8.15    Becky Sharp                   4/1ew
Chepstow            5.30    Aquadabra                     15/2ew
Chepstow            6.30    Port Noir                          5/1ew
Chepstow            8.30    Hammy End                     7/2
Chepstow            9.00    Master Grey                     9/1ew
Chepstow            9.00    Bailarico                         11/2ew

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8 hours ago, LEE-GRAYS said:

Try a few in France later A Crassus and A Nicole doing well

aix-les-bains

3.55 kellerdam 40/1 all or nothing 10/1

4.30 marriage mystique 20/1 mark nova 20/1

5.05 Zala chope 13/2 

5.45 mearas style 7/1 off galavanting 10/1

6.15 gatee 8/1 

6.45 moni 14/1 armorial 18/1 

7-15 lilou reconvene 6/1 

7.45 vim 12/1 sandoside 11/2

all bets 25p e/w bet365 

bad day 0.65p back

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10 hours ago, The Equaliser said:

I nearly didn't bother with such low class racing today.  Anyway, decided to have a go as its the last day of the month

Today's Trixie:

1.30 Don Mr Wagyu £2 win at 5/2
2.00 Don Ice Lord £1 win at 4/1
2.45 Muss Desert Ace £2 win at 3/1
£1 win Trixie = £4 v £121.50

Other win bets:

2.00 Don Flying Pursuit 50p Win at 25/1
2.45 Muss Glenifer £1 win at 9/1
3.00 Don Notforalongtime 50p at 9/1 ( I think the price will drift)

£7.00 staked on win bets

£4 00 on Multiples

= £11 staked in total

As they used to say in Hill Street Blues:  " Be careful out there"

 

 

 

Well, my gut feeling was right about it being a dodgy day for betting.

Nothing close on the multiples so a £4 loss.  Therefore a C/fwd balance of £661.04 (£800 Bank)

Notforalongtime saved the day for me winning by a nose at 12/1 = £6.50. A non runner for £1 meant a return of £7.50 versus £7 outlay = 50p Profit.
Balance C/Fwd = £376.13 (Bank £400)

Some better class racing tomorrow at Southwell and at least some other class four racing elsewhere.

 

 

 

 

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On 6/29/2020 at 7:22 PM, Trotter said:

All aged handicap selections for Tuesday ..... last day of the trial & lots of races with 4 meetings

I'll have a think about something else for next month

Donc

4.30 - Champagne Terri 4/1 and Encryption 14/1 (NON RUNNER)

Muss

2.45 - The Defiant 4/1 and Gowanbuster 5/1 (WON)
4.15 - Lady Scatterley 3/1 and Vampish 11/4
5.15 - Tarnhelm 7/2

Leic

6.15 - Deconso 7/1 and Freedom and Wheat 4/1
7.45 - Telekinetic 11/2 and Arlecchinos Arc 10/1
8.15 - Becky Sharp 11/2 and Homing Star 14/1 (NON RUNNER)

Chep

8.30 - Cafe Sydney 7/2 and Lauberhorn Rocket 7/1
9.00 - Master Grey 16/1

prices bet365 bog

 

2 stakes back on non runners 

Today staked 14.00, returns 6.00 , P/L -8.00

End of trial totals  - Staked 151.00, P/L + 7.86

Obviously not a huge return but it's ok to finish in profit after 151 selections

A few thoughts

the system ...... all aged handicaps, discard all horses two or more years older than the youngest horse in the race (effectively at this time of this unusual season you're sticking to 4 and 5 year olds) Cross out any horse that hasn't won over the trip. On tracks with a known draw bias eliminate any horse with a bad draw

If you're left with one or two horses they're your selections

If you have multiple runners left skip it and move on to the next race

The logic is that you're looking for the younger horses who might be improving merely by maturing and thus have more chance of being ahead of the handicapper than the older more exposed ones. I include Distance winners in pretty much any system I think of because it removes one of the unknowns ...... is the horse effective over this trip. Draw bias speaks for itself. And you're lookig for races where there's only one or two of these horses in the field.

This is an unusual season and in a normal season I would like to stick to 4 year old plus races which diminish in number as the season goes on and the 3 year olds enter the all aged handicaps, starting with the sprinters and moving up the distances. 

In a normal year this would be a system for the season up to around Royal Ascot

Then go again late season for the staying races when 3 year olds enter them

 

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7 hours ago, The Equaliser said:

@Trotter Well done for sharing this with us all and making a profit as well.

Do you intend to continue with this going forward? 

I just wonder if this detracts from your normal routine of making selections as you very helpfully outlined to stevelc

 

I'll give it a break for now

I think of this as an early season system as it gets a bit complicated when the 3 year olds start running in all aged handicaps with weight allowances

I might come back to it when the three year olds start running in staying handicaps later in the year. They get a big weight allowance and can be unexposed over staying trips having been running, and been handicapped, on their form over shorter.

 

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34 minutes ago, Trotter said:

I'll give it a break for now

I think of this as an early season system as it gets a bit complicated when the 3 year olds start running in all aged handicaps with weight allowances

I might come back to it when the three year olds start running in staying handicaps later in the year. They get a big weight allowance and can be unexposed over staying trips having been running, and been handicapped, on their form over shorter.

 

I admire your tenacity.  Good luck with it later on in the season

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A losing day yesterday -

Doncaster            1.30    Big Lachie                     6/1ew---------1st 5/1
Doncaster            1.30    Sheepscar Lad            12/1ew---------lost
Doncaster            2.00    Princess Power            14/1ew---------lost
Doncaster            2.00    Flying Pursuit               25/1ew---------lost
Doncaster            2.00    Ice Lord                          4/1ew---------lost
Musselburgh        1.15    How Bizzare                   5/1ew---------lost
Musselburgh        1.15    Bibbidibobbidiboo           9/1ew---------2nd 5/1
Musselburgh        2.45    Desert Ace                      3/1----------lost
Musselburgh        2.45    Bashiba                         15/2ew---------lost
Musselburgh        3.15    Maulesden May            14/1ew---------3rd 14/1
Musselburgh        3.15    Corton Lad                    18/1ew---------lost
Musselburgh        4.15    Lagenda                          7/1ew---------3rd 17/2
Musselburgh        4.15    Lucky Violet                   14/1ew---------lost
Leicester              5.15    Teepee Time                    6/1ew---------2nd 
Leicester              5.45    Dreamboat Annie             9/1ew---------n/r
Leicester              6.45    Chetan                              2/1-----------lost
Leicester              6.45    Lippy Lady                      25/1ew---------2nd 22/1
Leicester              7.15    Twittering                          9/1ew---------lost
Leicester              8.15    Dolphin Village                11/1ew---------lost
Leicester              8.15    Becky Sharp                     4/1ew---------3rd 5/2
Chepstow            5.30    Aquadabra                       15/2ew---------2nd 8/1
Chepstow            6.30    Port Noir                            5/1ew---------lost
Chepstow            8.30    Hammy End                       7/2-----------2nd 9/4 fav
Chepstow            9.00    Master Grey                       9/1ew---------lost
Chepstow            9.00    Bailarico                           11/2ew---------lost
 

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