Announcements
** Nap's Competition Result : 1st Barnsley Chop, 2nd Daisychain, 3rd Bathtime For Rupert, 4th Marmalade, KO Cup Tipsterix, Most Winners Calva Decoy**
**June Poker League Result : 1st Autogree £75, 2nd Rivrd £45, 3rd Ian309 £30**
BillyHills

Racing Chat - Saturday June 19th (Ascot Day 5)

Recommended Posts

Gotta love the wokingham....its as wide open as it gets but it's perfect for an attempt at a huge win so let's have a go ....

Bielsa   228  5/1  888

Recon mission 227 50/1 bet365 

Spanish city   223  14/1 

Silent echo  223 14/1 

Bielsa is an unknown quantity ....looked a progressive type last season and may continue but highish weight in this as,a result.....outstanding value bet of the race is recon mission ...50/1 ???...what the hell ....I have,a tissue of 14/1 !! .. that's a crazy price so I'm having that especially at 1/4 odds bet365 5 places ....let's roll the dice...interesting race 

Bielsa 10pts win 5/1 888

Recon mission 10pts ew 50/1 bet365 

24 x 0.5pt tricasts top 4 ( 12 pts )

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

No time for written reasons this week, but for those following my Australian tips over the last few months I have bets in 5 races tomorrow.

Flemington R1 (2.45am) - Man Of Peace 17/5 Bet365

Flemington R6 (5.45am) - Chapada 7/2 Bet365, Alfharis 4/1 with everyone and Lord Belvedere e/w 18/1 with everyone

Flemington R7 (6.25am) - King Of Hastings 9/5 Bet365

Randwick R3 (3.40am) - Broken Arrows 11/2 Betfair

Randwick R4 (4.15am) - Mount Papa 5/2 Betfair

 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Today's all aged handicap selections..... 

Newm

2.45 Riviera Nights 6/4 and Ventura Ocean 9/2

Ripon

5.35 The Golden Cue 5/1 and Montalvan 7/1
6.10 Ugo Gregory 8/1 and John Kirkup 8/1
6.40 Zumurad 9/1
7.40 Mac Alley 6/1
8.10 Amjaady 13/2 and Benadalid 9/1

Kemp

5.20 Aghast 13/2 and Terri Rules 16/1
5.55 Comeonfeeltheforce 4/1
6.55 Chloellie 10/1 and Gregorian Girl 8/1
7.25 Moment of Hope 10/1
7.55 Mutasamy 5/2 and Kings Highway 9/2
8.25 Mabo 7/2 and Cristal Pallas Cat 8/1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
12 hours ago, Darran said:

No time for written reasons this week, but for those following my Australian tips over the last few months I have bets in 5 races tomorrow.

Flemington R1 (2.45am) - Man Of Peace 17/5 Bet365

Flemington R6 (5.45am) - Chapada 7/2 Bet365, Alfharis 4/1 with everyone and Lord Belvedere e/w 18/1 with everyone

Flemington R7 (6.25am) - King Of Hastings 9/5 Bet365

Randwick R3 (3.40am) - Broken Arrows 11/2 Betfair

Randwick R4 (4.15am) - Mount Papa 5/2 Betfair

 

A nice 18/1 winner to start the day and Mount Papa also won.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

12.40 Ascot - 2pts win Nahaarr @ 13/2 Bet365

Well I thought the price would collapse on this one...odds were insane yesterday. This horse fits the profile of those I like in these big sprint handicaps - I love those coming back a furlong in such races as you have to get every inch of 6f to win these and this drop back in trip will really suit. Beaten at short prices the last twice but overraced over 7f on both occasions, and ran as if he'd improve for his reappearance run last time out. Still lightly raced and its form reads well here. Got off the mark in his career at Lingfield, beating Biometric (a 100 rated horse now) and then hacked up in two 7f handicaps. 6f is definitely his best trip though and I think he'll run a big race, for all the value in the price has gone somewhat.

1.15 Ascot - 2pts win More Beautiful @ 6/4 Bet365

Not a clever selection and one of the few favourites this week that I like but she was impressive on debut and the horse in fifth has won since (not much other form to go off) so clearly wasn't a bad race and the step up to 6f will suit if anything - plenty of stamina in the family and looks potentially well drawn. Nothing complicated about this one but I'm keen.

1.50 Ascot - 1pt e/w Dark Lion @ 10/1 Bet365

Decided to go for an e/w choice in this race and Dark Lion I see making a big improvement from his debut run. Was well fancied that day, sent off at 2/1 but was off the pace and then hated the track when trying to pick up, yet still managed to stay on for fourth when all the winners at Newmarket were doing it from the front. Was the only horse to make up ground despite him looking all at sea on the track. With that experience under his belt and a flatter track today I think he'll come on plenty and can make the frame at least.

2.25 Ascot - 2pts win Alpine Star @ 7/2 Bet365

Was third to Love on debut and then got a form boost (albeit over 7f) when smashing yesterday's winner Santiago on her second start. Stayed on well to get up late in the day over 7f last time out with 1000 Guineas winner behind and the 3rd in the Irish Guineas too. Will love going up to a mile and any cut that remains in the ground will be no problem. There wouldn't be a lot between her and Quadrilateral on form but I think Alpine Star will be stronger at the finish, especially if Quadrilateral doesn't settle again 

3.00 Ascot - 1pt e/w Threat @ 12/1 Bet365

I'm tempted to take on the Guineas form here and although Pinatubo could quite easily bounce back to win this but I'll chance Richard Hannon's charge who is a bit weak in the market but has the form to take a hand in this. Has run largely over 6f including when clear with Commonwealth Cup winner Golden Horde last year. Won over 7f despite the race not being run to suit at Doncaster before running well in the Middle Park on his most recent start, when difficult to make ground from the back. This is his first start over a mile which poses a question but sees his races out well and doesn't appear to be an issue on pedigree with sire, dam and damsire all milers as a minimum. Looks worth chancing at the price.

3.35 Ascot - 2pts win Hello Youmzain @ 5/1 Bet365

Lightly raced, progressive type who I think will go well today. Won the Betfair Sprint Cup at Haydock last year, keeping on well from the front with the next three places all filled by those coming off the pace. The only horse that could lie up with Hello Youmzain finished 3l back and subsequently franked the form with good runs in two subsequent group ones. Was better than the result here last time out when doing the donkey work on heavy ground but still travelled best and looked the likely winner 2f out. Just backed out of it late on as it turned into a slog and the strong stayers came through - losing distance was exaggerated as he couldn't ride a finish towards the end of the race and with less emphasis on stamina today I think he'll put up a bold show.

4.10 Ascot - 1pt e/w Silent Echo @ 18/1 Bet365

A hardy handicapper who has run well off similar marks in big field handicaps previously. Clearly in good heart having won on his seasonal return at Newmarket and hopefully will come on for the run too. Needs a strong test at this trip which he's sure to get today and certainly isn't handicapped out of this - was 5th of 28 off two pounds higher in the race a couple of years back and I think is overpriced today, possibly due to him not being with a fashionable trainer. 

4.40 Ascot - 3pts win Who Dares Wins @ 6/5 Bet365

Off level weights will take the world of beating here. Best horse in the race, probably the strongest stayer and the trainer had a winner yesterday. Well backed and a short price but a good one to include in multiples.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Good morning all

Next selection has to be Pinatubo in the 300 Ascot 1point 11/8 bog Hill

Going for a hat trick at Ascot 

Bank now 114.35 from 100 start W9L3

Ran a good race - just not the superstar he promised last year.

Bank now 113.35 from 100 W9 L4

Edited by Old codger
Update

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Todays handicap selections (later races to follow) -

Ascot           12.40    Louie De Palma           18/1ew
Ascot           12.40    Swindler                        9/2ew
Ascot           12.40    Golden Apollo             33/1ew
Ascot             4.10    Lethal Lunch               22/1ew
Ascot             4.10    Tinto                            12/1ew
Newmarket    2.45    Ventura Ocean             5/1ew
Newmarket    4.25    Holy Kingdom               9/4
Naas              3.10    Mokhalad                    12/1ew
Naas              3.10    Blairmayne                    7/1ew
Naas              3.45    Tennesse Waltz           20/1ew
Naas              4.45    Miracles In May           11/2ew
Naas              4.45    Twenty Minutes           12/1ew

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

and the later handicaps -

Ripon                 5.35    Montalvan                        6/1ew
Ripon                 6.40    Bossipop                          5/1ew
Ripon                 6.40    Canford Bay                   12/1ew
Ripon                 8.10    Benadalid                       15/2ew
Ripon                 8.10    Mutamaded                    13/2ew
Kempton            5.20    Deeds Not Words           13/2ew
Kempton            5.20    Maid Millie                       11/2ew
Kempton            5.55    Comeonfeeltheforce         5/1ew
Kempton            6.55    Magicinthemaking            9/1ew
Kempton            7.25    Moment Of Hope              9/1ew
Kempton            7.25    Ilhabela Fact                   10/1ew
Kempton            7.55    Agent Of Fortune            20/1ew
Kempton            7.55    Swiss Cheer                     5/1ew
Kempton            8.25    Cashel                              7/1ew
Kempton            8.25    Mabo                               10/3
 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
16 hours ago, Tedthewolf said:

Silver  Wokingham

COSMIC LAW 40/1

FLAVIUS  TITUS 66/1

HYPERFOCUS 40/1

The Wokingham

HEY JONESY   40/1

STONE OF DESTINY 20/1

NO NONSENSE 33/1

ALL BET 365 BOG 1/4  5Places

 Not exactly  a 150/1 stunner but a 40/1 Wiinner  not to be sniffed at.

That 150/1 bring  backs memories  of the 100/1 thread we use to have & the 25/1+  winners thread we had. they were fantastic ....oh the  good old days!

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

1955 kempton

image of the moon, runs in the colours of the gree gold crowd partnership, who I have an interest in honormission of the same colours.

they sent a video out today and they are hopeful of a good run,runs well fresh

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
12 hours ago, Trotter said:

Today's all aged handicap selections..... 

Newm

2.45 Riviera Nights 6/4 and Ventura Ocean 9/2

Ripon

5.35 The Golden Cue 5/1 (WON) and Montalvan 7/1
6.10 Ugo Gregory 8/1 and John Kirkup 8/1
6.40 Zumurad 9/1
7.40 Mac Alley 6/1
8.10 Amjaady 13/2 and Benadalid 9/1 (WON)

Kemp

5.20 Aghast 13/2 and Terri Rules 16/1
5.55 Comeonfeeltheforce 4/1
6.55 Chloellie 10/1 and Gregorian Girl 8/1
7.25 Moment of Hope 10/1
7.55 Mutasamy 5/2 (WON) and Kings Highway 9/2
8.25 Mabo 7/2 (WON) and Cristal Pallas Cat 8/1

4 winners and a small profitt

Today - staked 20.00, return 24.00 P/L +4

Running total - stakes 55.00 - P/L + 4.58

I'm thinking of tweaking this as I guess it's unlikely to make long term profits if you're making 20 selections a day, but the problem is how to limit it

I could stick to one selection per race but then I'd have probably missed today's biggest winner

I could limit it by race class or distance ..... just to have fewer races

Or I could limit it to races where my selection criteria just throws up one or two runners ... a regular problem being that it throws up 5 in a race then I have to use subjective criteria to narrow it down further which negates it being a 'system'

I'll ponder on this !

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
4 hours ago, Tedthewolf said:

 Not exactly  a 150/1 stunner but a 40/1 Wiinner  not to be sniffed at.

That 150/1 bring  backs memories  of the 100/1 thread we use to have & the 25/1+  winners thread we had. they were fantastic ....oh the  good old days!

Well done.  Hey Jonesy a thrilling winner.

With over 8,000 posts I guess you should feel free to upgrade your status from Newbie Punter

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
28 minutes ago, Trotter said:

4 winners and a small profitt

Today - staked 20.00, return 24.00 P/L +4

Running total - stakes 55.00 - P/L + 4.58

I'm thinking of tweaking this as I guess it's unlikely to make long term profits if you're making 20 selections a day, but the problem is how to limit it

I could stick to one selection per race but then I'd have probably missed today's biggest winner

I could limit it by race class or distance ..... just to have fewer races

Or I could limit it to races where my selection criteria just throws up one or two runners ... a regular problem being that it throws up 5 in a race then I have to use subjective criteria to narrow it down further which negates it being a 'system'

I'll ponder on this !

Well done for all your hard work; I'm sure that you will tweak the system favourably

 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
10 hours ago, The Equaliser said:

2.25 Asc Alpine Star 3/1
3.55 Nm Mafia Power 2/1
6.25 Km Barber of Seville 7/4

3 x £2 win bets & one £1 Trixie = £4 v £64.25

3.55 Nm Maqtal 50p win at 12/1
1.15 Asc sands Of TIme 50p Win at 14/1

= £11 staked in total

 

 

My only winner today was Alpine Star which was returned at 9/2 which meant that I didn't lose anything on the day

My Multiples balance is now £606.48 (£800 Bank)

My Singles balance is now £361.65 (£400 Bank)

I'm getting a bit cheesed off in selecting the wrong short priced beast for my multiples.  But as someone once said "the dictionary is the only place where Success comes before Work

 

 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Another profitable day with 5 winners and 7 places - system shows profit over last 3 days of around £27.88.

Stakes calculated to £1 win and 50p ew stakes :cheers

Ascot               12.40    Louie De Palma           18/1ew---------4th 25/1 
Ascot               12.40    Swindler                         9/2ew---------n/r
Ascot               12.40    Golden Apollo              33/1ew---------lost
Ascot                 4.10    Lethal Lunch                22/1ew---------lost
Ascot                 4.10    Tinto                             12/1ew---------lost
Newmarket        2.45    Ventura Ocean               5/1ew---------2nd 11/2
Newmarket        4.25    Holy Kingdom                  9/4-----------1st 7/4 fav
Naas                  3.10    Mokhalad                      12/1ew---------1st 13/2 
Naas                  3.10    Blairmayne                      7/1ew---------3rd 12/1
Naas                  3.45    Tennesse Waltz             20/1ew---------lost
Naas                  4.45    Miracles In May             11/2ew---------lost
Naas                  4.45    Twenty Minutes             12/1ew---------lost
Ripon                 5.35    Montalvan                        6/1ew---------3rd 9/2
Ripon                 6.40    Bossipop                         5/1ew---------1st 9/2
Ripon                 6.40    Canford Bay                   12/1ew---------lost
Ripon                 8.10    Benadalid                       15/2ew---------1st 9/1
Ripon                 8.10    Mutamaded                     13/2ew---------lost
Kempton            5.20    Deeds Not Words           13/2ew---------lost
Kempton            5.20    Maid Millie                       11/2ew---------2nd 10/3
Kempton            5.55    Comeonfeeltheforce         5/1ew---------lost
Kempton            6.55    Magicinthemaking             9/1ew---------lost
Kempton            7.25    Moment Of Hope              9/1ew---------3rd 16/1
Kempton            7.25    Ilhabela Fact                   10/1ew---------lost
Kempton            7.55    Agent Of Fortune             20/1ew---------lost
Kempton            7.55    Swiss Cheer                      5/1ew---------2nd 4/1
Kempton            8.25    Cashel                               7/1ew---------lost
Kempton            8.25    Mabo                                 10/3-----------1st 10/3 fav

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Join the conversation

You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.
Note: Your post will require moderator approval before it will be visible.

Guest
Reply to this topic...

×   Pasted as rich text.   Paste as plain text instead

  Only 75 emoji are allowed.

×   Your link has been automatically embedded.   Display as a link instead

×   Your previous content has been restored.   Clear editor

×   You cannot paste images directly. Upload or insert images from URL.