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BillyHills

Racing Chat - Thursday June 18th (Ascot Day 3)

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Today all aged handicap selections ......

Redc

6.00 Queen of Kalahari 9/2, Galloway Hills 11/2
6.30 Ginger Max 9/4, Equidae 8/1
7.30 Geetanjali 5/2, Bollin Joan 11/2
9.00 Kensington Art 11/2, Running Cloud 10/1

Newm

2.05 Arigato 9/4, Vocatus 5/2
3.15 Exmoor Beast 14/1, Great Kodiac 14/1
5.00 Matewan 7/2, Purdeys Gift 7/1


price bet365 bog

running totals - staked 13.00, P/L +11.33

today - staked 14.00

 

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1.15 Ascot - 1pt e/w Highland Chief @ 14/1 Bet365

Interesting runner for an in-form yard. Have to forgive his most recent run when not going with much fluency and well beaten in a Group 2 but if ignoring that, his form bodes well for this. His run behind Pinatubo is top notch and managed to beat a good horse over 5f on debut which is some going considering this one's pedigree. Slight concern that he even ran over 5f to say he's now going up to 1m2f but on pedigree should be absolutely fine (dam was a middle distance type) and has really strong form in the book from his first two runs.

1.50 Ascot - 2pts win Fox Tal @ 7/2 Bet365

Sir Dragonet is disappointing and have to take him on - Fox Tal is the obvious choice, consistent type, conditions fine, form in the book and goes well fresh. Not much more to say really.

2.25 Ascot - 2pts win Monarch of Egypt @ 5/1 Bet365

Shame about the forecast weather as I'd be all over Molatham like a rash on better ground but it's going to be too soft for him I think, whereas Monarch of Egypt is more versatile and still has good form in the book. Even his average run behind Pinatubo at Newmarket reads fairly well here and ran well on his return in the Irish 2000 Guineas - drop back to 7f no problem and there looks to be a good amount of pace in the race today which will set it up perfectly for him.

3.00 Ascot - 1pt win First Prophet @ 7/1 Bet365

Clearly a lot of noise about the O'Brien horse but I'll let him win at that price. They usually improve a lot on debut runs and the step up in trip helps but it didn't blow me away like he was a superstar in waiting but we'll see. Obviously a tough race to call with not a lot of form to go off but the second favourite won in a blanket finish really so whether that was a great race is up for debate, the third made all at Newmarket when there was a pace bias so another one worth taking on so I'm with First Prophet. Visually the best performance of this field when winning on debut, travelling powerfully, green when picking up but won decisively and hit the line well. Put some distance between the field and there were some decent types in that field on paper. 

4.10 Ascot - 0.5pts e/w Starcat @ 16/1 and 1pt win Enemy @ 17/2 Bet365

Can't split these two and with them drawn on opposite sides, I'm going to play both. Starcat's debut win at Kempton reads very well and suggests he's on a good mark here. Ran really well in the Guineas on just his second start, up with a strong pace for a long way and should set him up for this. Draw not ideal based on this week's results so far but worth chancing. Enemy's debut form also reads well when winning here over 7f, looks off a decent mark on that win and although disappointing on his return, that will have brought him on and the step up to a strongly run mile will be bob on. 

4.40 Ascot - 1pt e/w Soffika 10/1 Bet365

African Dream is well in but another I'll let win that that price. Pedigree doesn't scream a mile on soft ground so simply based on that won't be backing in a big field at 15/8. Soffika looks interesting for Sir Michael Stoute - he doesn't have many first time out winners so this one's comfortable success at Pontefract was reason to sit up and take notice. Ran excellently in the Sweet Solara when staying on, splitting two rivals who've gone on to do well since and on that evidence, is on a good mark and the step up in trip suits. Have to hope the favourite flops but this one has a big chance for me. 

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Good morning all

My next selection

300 Ascot Battleground 1point win 5/2 bog betway, sky 

From what I understand from his performance in training this is a potential Group 1 horse in a listed race. 

Start bank 100 W8 L3 Current bank 111.6

Showed the expected improvement and at a nice price.

Start bank 100 W9 L3 Bank now 114.35

Edited by Old codger
Update

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1.00 Nm Sunset Breeze 85/40 £2 win
3.00 Asc Battle Ground 9/4 £2 win
7.30 Red Geetanjali 11/4 £2 win
£1 win Trixie = £4 v £72.15

1.00 NM Abawaqq 50p win at 10/1
3.00 Asc Bright Devil £1 win at 6/1

3.35 Asc Moonlight Spirit 50p win at 10/1
3.35 Asc Nayef Road 50p win at 14/1

5.00 Nm Vision Clear 50p win at 12/1

7.30 Red Sootability £1 win at 13/2

Total win stakes = £10.00

Multiple stakes = £4.00

Total stakes £14.00

 

 

 

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Todays handicap selections -

Newmarket   2.05    Arigato                            2/1
Newmarket   2.05    Robero                           8/1ew
Newmarket   5.00    Matewan                         9/4
Newmarket   5.00    Stamford Raffles           25/1ew
Ascot            4.10    Enemy                             9/1ew
Ascot            4.10    Cherokee Trail               28/1ew
Redcar          6.00    Galloway Hills               7/2
Redcar          6.00    Normandy Barriere       15/2ew
Redcar          6.00    Buccaneers Vault           9/1ew
Redcar          6.00    Magical Effect              14/1ew
Redcar          6.30    Verdigris                       12/1ew
Redcar          7.30    Nkosikazi                        2/1
Redcar          7.30    Bollin Joan                   11/2ew
Fairyhouse    5.45    Guiding Star                18/1ew
Fairyhouse    5.45    Dolce Sicily                  50/1ew
Fairyhouse    6.15    Nakakande                    6/1ew
Fairyhouse    6.15    La Novia                      10/1ew
Fairyhouse    6.15    Guiding                        33/1ew

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Hi there small lose last night-£0.03

1 win race 5 1 place 33/1

overall +£19.22

churchill downs

race 1 jamin’s jet 12/1

race 2 frankincense 16/1

race 3 lynn t 40/1

race 4 big time 16/1

race 5 lil’s shopper 20/1

race 6 mister not funny 28/1

race 7 creme de cerise 20/1

race 8 ricasso 11/2

race 9 flying Scotsman 20/1

all bets 25p e/w good luck 

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2 hours ago, LEE-GRAYS said:

Hi there small lose last night-£0.03

1 win race 5 1 place 33/1

overall +£19.22

churchill downs

race 1 jamin’s jet 12/1

race 2 frankincense 16/1

race 3 lynn t 40/1

race 4 big time 16/1

race 5 lil’s shopper 20/1

race 6 mister not funny 28/1

race 7 creme de cerise 20/1

race 8 ricasso 11/2

race 9 flying Scotsman 20/1

all bets 25p e/w good luck 

good night so far 12/1 race 1 40/1 race 4 thank god for bog hope we can get another couple 

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Decent profit today with a few winners and a bagful of places -

Newmarket      2.05    Arigato                          2/1-----------1st 2/1 jt fav 😀
Newmarket      2.05    Robero                        8/1ew---------2nd 7/1 😀
Newmarket      5.00    Matewan                       9/4-----------2nd 2/1
Newmarket      5.00    Stamford Raffles         25/1ew--------lost
Ascot               4.10    Enemy                          9/1ew--------4th 6/1 😀
Ascot               4.10    Cherokee Trail            28/1ew--------3rd 16/1 😀
Redcar            6.00    Galloway Hills               7/2------------3rd 10/3 jt fav
Redcar            6.00    Normandy Barriere     15/2ew---------2nd 13/2 😀
Redcar            6.00    Buccaneers Vault         9/1ew----------1st 16/1 😀
Redcar            6.00    Magical Effect            14/1ew----------4th 14/1 😀
Redcar            6.30    Verdigris                     12/1ew----------lost
Redcar            7.30    Nkosikazi                     2/1------------- 1st 11/8 fav 😀
Redcar            7.30    Bollin Joan                 11/2ew----------lost
Fairyhouse      5.45    Guiding Star              18/1ew----------lost
Fairyhouse      5.45    Dolce Sicily                50/1ew----------lost
Fairyhouse      6.15    Nakakande                  6/1ew----------lost
Fairyhouse      6.15    La Novia                     10/1ew---------lost
Fairyhouse      6.15    Guiding                       33/1ew---------lost

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11 hours ago, Trotter said:

Today all aged handicap selections ......

Redc

6.00 Queen of Kalahari 9/2 (NON RUNNER), Galloway Hills 11/2
6.30 Ginger Max 9/4 (WON), Equidae 8/1
7.30 Geetanjali 5/2, Bollin Joan 11/2
9.00 Kensington Art 11/2, Running Cloud 10/1

Newm

2.05 Arigato 9/4 (WON), Vocatus 5/2
3.15 Exmoor Beast 14/1, Great Kodiac 14/1
5.00 Matewan 7/2, Purdeys Gift 7/1 (NON RUNNER)


price bet365 bog

running totals - staked 13.00, P/L +11.33

today - staked 14.00

 

Stakes returned on a couple of non runners

today staked 12.00 - returns 6.50  P/L -5.50

running totals - staked 25,00, P/L + 5.83

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11 hours ago, The Equaliser said:

1.00 Nm Sunset Breeze 85/40 £2 win
3.00 Asc Battle Ground 9/4 £2 win
7.30 Red Geetanjali 11/4 £2 win
£1 win Trixie = £4 v £72.15

1.00 NM Abawaqq 50p win at 10/1
3.00 Asc Bright Devil £1 win at 6/1

3.35 Asc Moonlight Spirit 50p win at 10/1
3.35 Asc Nayef Road 50p win at 14/1

5.00 Nm Vision Clear 50p win at 12/1

7.30 Red Sootability £1 win at 13/2

Total win stakes = £10.00

Multiple stakes = £4.00

Total stakes £14.00

 

 

 

Wow what a run from Stradivarius; that's how an odds on favourite should win

Two winners today and I thought I was in with a shout for a Trixie until Geetanjali ran a stinker of a race.  Still, it was raining hard so who could blame the horse for not wanting to run its race.  Sootability did run well for me but didn't win.

The single bets yielded a net profit of £4 so the C/Fwd balance is £364.90 from a £400 Bank

The Multiples yielded a double for £12.19 therefore £8.19 profit.  Balance C/Fwd £614.48 (£800 Bank)

 

 

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12 minutes ago, The Equaliser said:

Wow what a run from Stradivarius; that's how an odds on favourite should win

 

brilliant ....... a real 'wow' !

that Geetanjali let me down as well ...... I thought he was being held up at the back to surge through the field but he was just being left behind !

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6 hours ago, LeMale said:

I TRY not to bet on anything he rides, he just cost me in the last and he only had to place!!! Can't stand him.

I'm the same with Frankie Dettori in sprints, useless at breaking from the stalls.

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16 hours ago, MCLARKE said:

I'm the same with Frankie Dettori in sprints, useless at breaking from the stalls.

Hahaha...not a sprint, but see what you mean in 1610 Queen's Vase today 🤣

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22 hours ago, LeMale said:

Hahaha...not a sprint, but see what you mean in 1610 Queen's Vase today 🤣

That will teach me, my horse just came 2nd in a 5f sprint, beaten by a horse ridden by ……….. FRANKIE DETTORI !

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I must admit this was more of a gut feeling having had some losers in sprints with Frankie running. I have therefore analysed his performance over the last few 4 years and I think I owe him an apology !

In 5 and 6 furlong races he has had 43 winners from 195 runners with a LSP profit of 90.40 points at BSP. This return of 46% is better than his overall return, which is still a very healthy 18%.

If you had backed him when he was in the top 3 in the betting you would have lost money but if you had backed all his other runners you would have had 34 winners form 321 runners with a LSP of 193.11 points.

He has also made a profit of at least 25 points in each of the last 4 years.

I think I am starting to warm to Frankie !

A note of caution, his only losing month has been July although August has been his most profitable month.

 

Edited by MCLARKE
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